The Glide Path

DoubleLine

The Glide Path is a series of unscripted conversations hosted by Stephen Dopp, a Relationship Manager on DoubleLine's Global Relationship Management team. Guests are pulled from Steve's own network, years in the making: portfolio strategists, CIT architects, fiduciary business builders and other people who spend their careers inside the mechanics of retirement plans.

Episodes

  1. 1d ago ·  Video

    Oil Isn’t the Problem, the Deficit Is | Tim Paulson

    Stephen Dopp welcomes back recurring guest Tim Paulson for another wide-ranging conversation, this time tying together the fallout from the Jackson Hole symposium and Mr. Paulson’s latest essay, “The Wrong End of the Pool.” Mr. Paulson frames Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh as trying to revive a pre-Global Financial Crisis ethos at the Fed of less forward guidance and a smaller balance sheet, but Mr. Paulson argues the chairman’s hands are tied by a financial system the Fed helped build over the past two decades. Mr. Paulson extends his swimming pool analogy to argue that oil and food prices are inherently volatile and don’t represent genuine long-run inflation, since money spent at the pump is simply redirected away from other goods rather than added to the system. The real driver of sustained inflation is the volume of fiscal spending flooding the economy, something no Fed policy can meaningfully offset. The conversation then turns to whether today’s elevated U.S. Treasury yields represent something abnormal or are simply a return to historical norms after an artificially low-rate era. Mr. Paulson points out that today’s 10-year term premium is actually a bit below its 50- to 60-year historical average, a fact he says gets lost in the recency bias of comparing current yields only to the last 15 years. He’s direct in stating that the fiscal deficit is the real long-term risk to watch, comparing it to handing a college student an uncapped credit card with no annual fee: It feels fine until the bill eventually comes due, and Mr. Paulson expects politicians will only act once markets force their hand. He closes by pushing back on recurring “end of the dollar” narratives, arguing that despite genuine erosion of confidence, no credible alternative reserve currency exists today.   Subscribe to The Glide Path: Apple Podcasts PodBean Spotify Amazon Music   Speaker Bio: Tim Paulson is a fixed income and macro strategist who spent fifteen years at Goldman Sachs — first as a risk-taker in the mortgage department, then in institutional sales working with some of the world’s largest investors — followed by a decade at Lord Abbett as the firm’s primary investment voice, speaking at major conferences and building market frameworks that moved billions in assets. After thousands of conversations with professional investors across his career, Tim has made debunking bad market narratives something of a personal mission. He writes about it at The Paulson Perspective, an independent macro publication built around a simple conviction: most of what gets written about markets is either an oversimplification or a distortion. He hosts Crosswinds, a monthly conversation about the economic and market ideas the consensus gets wrong.

  2. Sep 4 ·  Video

    Why CITs Are Winning in Retirement | Val Ferrara

    DoubleLine Relationship Manager Stephen Dopp welcomes Val Ferrara, known industrywide as the Queen of CITs, to the latest episode of The Glide Path to discuss her nearly two-decade career in the collective investment trust (CIT) industry. Ms. Ferrara details her journey from the iShares team implementing ETFs in 401(k) plans and growing Wilmington Trust’s CIT assets to well over $300 billion to launching her consultancy earlier this year. She makes the case that CITs have surpassed mutual funds as the dominant asset vehicle in retirement plans due to fee flexibility, negotiating power and robust fiduciary oversight. The conversation turns to where CITs may be headed next, including the industry conversation around delivering private assets into defined contribution plans. Ms. Ferrara draws a useful parallel to stable value, a category that has quietly managed a similar liquidity mismatch for decades, as a template for how private assets might find their place in retirement portfolios. The episode closes with Ms. Ferrara sharing the story behind her new book, written after completing a personal goal of running a half-marathon on every continent and visiting all seven wonders of the world.   Speaker Bio: Val Ferrara is the founder of Queen of CITs, LLC, an independent consultancy that helps asset managers expand and deepen their relationships in the retirement advisor-sold market — mapping the CIT competitive landscape and pricing strategy, managing RFP processes with third-party trustees, navigating Declarations of Trust and crafting CUSIP eligibility requirements, delivering ERISA and CIT education, and sharpening asset managers' sales and marketing collateral. She maintains a national network across retirement aggregator CIOs, investment committees, and influential plan advisors — relationships that surface market intelligence and product feedback for the managers she works with. Val has nearly twenty years in the defined contribution market. At Great Gray Trust Company, formerly Wilmington Trust, she helped pioneer the distribution team covering national sales as the firm's sub-advised CIT business grew from $10 billion to $190 billion over nine years, expanding from 10 asset managers to more than 70. She later served as Director of Sales at SEI, where she helped boutique asset managers understand the retirement market. Earlier in her career she spent seven years on BlackRock's defined contribution distribution team, spanning sales across their CIT, ETF, and mutual fund business. Val holds a registered trademark, Fearless with Positive Energy® — a mantra she promotes carrying into and out of every room. She is the author of 7 Life Lessons + 1: Inspirational Reflections After Traveling the Seven Wonders of the World, available on Amazon, written with thought-provoking questions meant to engage both the reader and listener. When she's not making CITs reign, Val enjoys traveling, yoga, and Broadway. She has run a half-marathon on every continent and explored the Seven Wonders of the World; her next adventure is hiking every U.S. National Park — 17 down, many more to go.

  3. Sep 2 ·  Video

    The Fed’s Broken Knob | Tim Paulson

    DoubleLine Relationship Manager Stephen Dopp welcomes Tim Paulson, author of The Paulson Perspective and a 25-year Wall Street veteran, for the inaugural episode of The Glide Path. The conversation centers on Mr. Paulson’s recent essay arguing that the Federal Reserve’s obsession with the overnight rate is outdated. His core point is that the economy has fundamentally changed since the framework was built. Corporations now fund capex through cash flow and equity rather than bank debt, and most homeowners locked in low fixed mortgage rates years ago, making both groups far less sensitive to small moves in the federal funds rate. Mr. Paulson draws a sharp distinction between the fed funds rate, which he calls a broad thermostat for the economy, and the Fed’s separate systemic stabilization tools. He argues that conflating the two, as markets did during the 2023 regional bank failures, creates unnecessary panic and confused policy expectations.   The conversation then turns to housing affordability, which Mr. Paulson calls a supply problem being incorrectly treated as a rate problem. On private credit, he traces today’s growth back to post-2008 bank regulation that pushed lending risk outside the banking system entirely. He’s direct about a mismatch emerging between long-duration private-credit assets and increasingly retail-oriented, liquidity-seeking capital. He also pushes back firmly on the idea that the absence of daily mark-to-market pricing is a genuine feature rather than a source of hidden risk. Transparency, not the illusion of stability, is what protects investors during periods of stress.   The episode closes on the fiscal deficit, which Mr. Paulson frames as a real but unpredictable risk, one that markets will tolerate right up until they don’t. He expects inflation to stay uncomfortably elevated as debt servicing costs increasingly compete with the disinflationary gains many are hoping AI productivity will deliver.   Speaker Bio: Tim Paulson is a fixed income and macro strategist who spent fifteen years at Goldman Sachs — first as a risk-taker in the mortgage department, then in institutional sales working with some of the world’s largest investors — followed by a decade at Lord Abbett as the firm’s primary investment voice, speaking at major conferences and building market frameworks that moved billions in assets.   After thousands of conversations with professional investors across his career, Tim has made debunking bad market narratives something of a personal mission. He writes about it at The Paulson Perspective, an independent macro publication built around a simple conviction: most of what gets written about markets is either an oversimplification or a distortion. He hosts Crosswinds, a monthly conversation about the economic and market ideas the consensus gets wrong.

About

The Glide Path is a series of unscripted conversations hosted by Stephen Dopp, a Relationship Manager on DoubleLine's Global Relationship Management team. Guests are pulled from Steve's own network, years in the making: portfolio strategists, CIT architects, fiduciary business builders and other people who spend their careers inside the mechanics of retirement plans.