S2E10 NRA Chief Economist Dr. Chad Moutray on the 2026 labor market, 122% turnover, and the price of running a shift short One missing employee can cost a restaurant $3,000 to $5,000 in lost sales over three months. That's one stat from the National Restaurant Association's new 2026 Hiring & Staffing report, and it's why we built a three-part mini-series around the labor market in restaurants. In Part 1, NRA Chief Economist Dr. Chad Moutray joins Ricardo Belmar and Casey Golden to read the restaurant labor market in real time, recorded days after fresh JOLTS and monthly jobs data in June. The labor market has cooled from the Great Resignation into what economists now call the Great Stay, and restaurant staffing looks easier on paper: understaffing fell from 78% of operators in 2021 to 22% in 2025. Chad explains why that 22% still bleeds real money, how a single empty shift cuts sales 7 to 8% per meal period, and why a 122% turnover rate means the average restaurant replaces its entire staff every year. What you'll learn in this episode: Where the restaurant labor market stands after the latest jobs data (48,000 restaurant jobs added in May, 220,000 over 12 months).Why job openings outnumbering the unemployed is a structural signal, and what shrinking demographics mean for restaurant staffing over the next decade.The true cost of understaffing: hundreds of dollars per shift, $3K to $5K per missing frontline worker, and the morale spiral that follows.Why half of Americans got their first job in a restaurant, and what that training ground teaches.How technology cuts hiring from weeks to days without touching the high-touch service that keeps guests coming back. Part 2 covers employee engagement and retention, including how long a new hire takes to become net positive. Subscribe so you don't miss it. Resource Links HIRING & STAFFING How Onboarding, Managers, & Technology Drive Restaurant ROI.https://www.restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/research-insight-workforce-hiring-staffing/ State of the Restaurant Industry 2026. https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/state-of-the-industry/ Support Our Sponsor This Episode is Brought to You By RetailClub. Retail Club AI Festival, September 22–24 in Huntington Beach. Join 2,000 retail leaders for a fully outdoor, beachside deep dive into how AI is reshaping retail. Qualified retailers and brands can attend with free tickets and up to $1,250 in travel reimbursement. Head to retailclub.com to learn more. https://retailclub.com/retail-razor-podcast Subscribe & Follow Don't forget to like and subscribe to The Retail Razor: Data Blades for more episodes on customer experience, retail marketing, AI in retail, and data‑driven transformation! Subscribe to the Retail Razor Podcast Network: https://retailrazor.com/ Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://retailrazor.substack.com Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://go.retailrazor.com/utube About Our Guest Dr Chad Moutray, Ph.D., CBE, https://www.linkedin.com/in/chadmoutray/ Chief Economist & Sr Vice President of Industry Research & Knowledge National Restaurant Association, https://www.restaurant.org/ Chad Moutray is senior vice president for research & knowledge and chief economist at the National Restaurant Association, where he leads economic analysis, data-driven insights, and thought leadership for business leaders in the restaurant and foodservice industry. A recognized expert on economic trends, he frequently shares his perspectives through professional presentations, media interviews, and industry reports. Dr. Moutray is an adjunct professor at George Washington University, where he teaches econometrics in the M.S. in the applied economics program. He has held leadership roles in several professional organizations, including serving as chair of the Conference of Business Economists and as a board member of the National Association for Business Economics. He is also a past president and chairman of the National Economists Club, the Washington, D.C. chapter of NABE. In 2026, he will begin serving on the board of trustees of the John Leland Center for Theological Studies in Arlington, VA. Chapters (00:00) Teaser (00:37) Show Intro (03:02) Welcome, Dr Chad Moutray! (04:24) Labor Market Snapshot (06:34) Seasonality and Consumer Demand (08:20) Restaurants as Training Ground (09:09) Why Hospitality Skills Matter (13:29) Understaffing Trends Today (15:08) Turnover and Onboarding Reality (16:45) True Cost of Empty Shifts (18:31) Tech That Speeds Hiring (20:01) Service as Competitive Edge (20:56) Key Takeaways and Demographics (24:11) Show Close About your Hosts Helping you cut through the clutter in retail data insights: Ricardo Belmar is an NRF Top Retail Voice for 2025 and a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2021 – 2026. Thinkers 360 has named him a Top 10 Thought Leader in Retail, a Top 25 Thought Leader in AGI and Careers, a Top 50 Thought Leader in Agentic AIand Management, and a Top 100 Thought Leader in Digital Transformation and Transformation. Thinkers 360 also named him a Top Digital Voice for 2024 and 2025. He is an advisory council member at George Mason University’s Center for Retail Transformationand the Retail Cloud Alliance. He was most recently the partner marketing leader for retail & consumer goods in the Americas at Microsoft. Casey Golden, is the North America Leader for Retail & Consumer Goods at CI&T, and CEO of Luxlock. She is a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2023 - 2026, and Retail Cloud Alliance advisory council member. After a career on the fashion and supply chain technology side of the business, Casey is obsessed with the customer relationship between the brand and the consumer and is slaying franken-stacks and building retail tech! Music Includes music provided by imunobeats.com, featuring Tech Lore from the album Beat Hype, written by Heston Mimms, published by Imuno.
