Unexpected Points takes a look at the NFL through a unique lens and challenges our assumptions about the game. Each week, PFF data scientist Kevin Cole discusses the topical and macro issues affecting football with the sport's most insightful commentators.
Matthew Freedman of FantasyLabs Talks Prop Betting
Matthew Freedman of FantasyLabs joins PFF"s Kevin Cole to discuss the validity of prop bets in today's market. Kevin and Matthew also discuss NFL props in the 2020 season and outline some situations where prop bets may be favorable and some situations where prop bets may not be nearly as lucrative.
ESPN's Mina Kimes Hands Out Quarter Season Awards + NFL News
ESPN NFL Analyst Mina Kimes joins PFF's Kevin Cole to discuss all the latest NFL news including Dwayne Haskins' benching and Bill O'Brien's ousting in Houston (3:25). Also on this episode, Mina and Kevin hand out some awards a quarter of the way through the 2020 NFL season (24:21).
Josh Hermsmeyer from FiveThirtyEight Talks Air Yards + AFC & NFC Super Bowl Contenders
PFF's Kevin Cole sits down with FiveThirtyEight and Establish the Run's Josh Hermsmeyer to talk Josh's famous Air Yards model (2:30) and statistical trends through 3 weeks of the NFL season (11:30). Kev and Josh also discuss some of their favorite under the radar Week 4 NFL fantasy football plays (18:15) and which teams could represent the AFC and NFC in Super Bowl LV (28:23).
Rufus Peabody of Massey-Peabody Analytics and Bet the Process Podcast Talks Gambling and NFL Week 3 Action
PFF's Kevin Cole sits down with Rufus Peabody. Kev and Rufus talk all things gambling including Rufus' background (01:58) and what sort of data points go into the making of the Massey-Peabody's sports betting models (07:26). Also on this episode, Kev and Rufus preview Week 3 of NFL action (25:01).
Week 1 Review + Aaron Donald Slander with ESPN's Seth Walder
PFF's Kevin Cole welcomes ESPN's Seth Walder to discuss the NFL's opening weekend and which current narratives he's buying or selling after one week of action (2:04). Kevin and Seth also discuss the methodology behind Seth's now infamous Aaron Donald take (56:02).
DFS Strategy + Early Season Outlook with Establish the Run's, Adam Levitan
PFF Data Scientist, Kevin Cole, welcomes Establish the Run's, Adam Levitan, to talk DFS and the origins of Establish the Run (01:41). Also on this episode, Kev and Adam discuss DFS strategy (06:04), what to expect early on in the 2020 NFL season from a DFS standpoint (25:54).