Eurodollar University Jeff Snider

After months of silence, a couple of critical developments from the beleaguered commercial real estate sector show up all at once. For the first time since the Global not-Financial Crisis, a senior tranche of a CLO took losses - a lot of losses - while redemptions threaten to force liquidations at one of the spaces more important CRE funds. Not good first signs for the bubble unwind.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg A Really Bad Sign for Commercial Real Estatehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-23/bloomberg-evening-briefing-a-really-bad-sign-for-commercial-real-estate
Bloomberg Starwood’s $10 Billion REIT Turns to Survival Mode as Real Estate Pain Lingershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/starwood-reit-sets-drastic-redemption-limits-on-liquidity-crunch
Bloomberg Lenders Race to Buy Back Delinquent Multifamily Mortgage Loanshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-01/jpmorgan-says-commercial-real-estate-clo-loan-buyouts-are-set-to-reach-a-record
Fitch Global Contagion Risk Growing from Rising CRE Losses, Led by Officehttps://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/global-contagion-risk-growing-from-rising-cre-losses-led-by-office-02-04-2024
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

On top of dumping Treasuries (which I covered in detail in a previous video https://youtu.be/j00_S1iug9c), China's also dumping its excess production on the rest of the world. The tactic has become so pervasive governments worldwide are responding with more than idle threats. But what are they really worried about given this means cheaper stuff and lower prices? 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen at Press Conference Ahead of the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meetingshttps://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2363
Reuters Yellen wants G7 'wall of opposition' to China's excess industrial capacityhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/yellen-says-g7-discuss-responses-chinas-excess-industrial-capacity-2024-05-23/
Treasury Secretary Yellen on PBShttps://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/treasury-secretary-yellen-on-why-biden-is-targeting-chinese-manufacturing-with-new-tariffs
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The retail giant's latest earnings report confirmed...well, pretty much everything. Inflation risks, consumer capacities, the direction of interest rates and more. Target's results help setting the debate on prices while also dovetailing right in with a whole bunch of the latest figures on especially gasoline and even rents. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Target Corp First Quarter Earningshttps://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-corporation-reports-first-quarter-earnings
Target Corp Press Release Lowering Priceshttps://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/05/target-will-help-consumers-save-big-by-lowering-prices-on-5,000-frequently-shopped-items
CNBC Target shares tumble 10% as consumers buy fewer groceries and home goodshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/target-tgt-q1-2024-earnings.html
BLS New Tenant Rent Indexhttps://www.bls.gov/pir/new-tenant-rent.htm
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There is a widespread feeling that something doesn't 'feel' right about the economic situation. While the official world vehemently denies it, they have every incentive not to admit the truth. There are various ways and methods to quantify living standards, especially material standards. Using officials' own methodology, we find the 'feeling' is very well grounded in material fact(s).
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Boston Fed How do We Measure Standard of Livinghttps://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/ledger/winter2004/livstand.pdf
CDC Drug Overdose Deathshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db491.htm
CDC Birth Statshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm
CDC Birth Rateshttps://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2020-2021/Brth.pdf
Christopher Waller Little by Little, Progress Seems to be Resuming.https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20240521a.htm
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Apple becomes just latest corporation to report results in line with recent macro statistics. That list now includes Home Depot and even today's Red Lobster bankruptcy. People are struggling and businesses are noticing and feeling the impact. But how far has it gone? Some other metrics are not encouraging. 
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Apple Second Quarter Earningshttps://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/05/apple-reports-second-quarter-results/
CNBC Apple announces largest-ever $110 billion share buyback as iPhone sales drop 10%https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/apple-aapl-earnings-report-q2-2024.htm
CNBC Red Lobster files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protectionhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/red-lobster-bankruptcy.html
CNBC Home Depot misses on revenue, as high interest rates hurt saleshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/home-depot-hd-q1-2024-earnings-.html
CNBC Are consumers pulling back on spending? It depends on which CEO you askhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/consumer-pullback-ceos.html
Bloomberg What Is Buy Now, Pay Later? How It Works and the Hidden Risks You Should Knowhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-09/what-is-buy-now-pay-later-how-bnpl-plans-work
Bloomberg Treat Buy Now, Pay Later Loans Like Real Debthttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-14/treat-klarna-affirm-buy-now-pay-later-loans-like-real-debt
Bloomberg Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Trackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/-buy-now-pay-later-has-americans-racking-up-phantom-debt
Flexhttps://help.getflex.com/hc/en-us/sections/360004885954-Get-Started
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Business at Walmart is brisk these days...and that's a big problem. The better things go for the company especially at the grocery department the worse you know it is in the economy. And the big retailer just put up robust results because it isn't just struggling Americans coming in to shop, Walmart is now getting tons of business from high-income earners, too, because now they're struggling. Not exactly the soft landing signal we'd hoped.  
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
NY Post Wealthier customers flock to Walmart to boost retailer’s sales in strong Q1 earningshttps://nypost.com/2024/05/16/business/wealthier-customer-flock-to-walmart-to-boost-retailers-sales-in-strong-q1-earnings/
Bloomberg Why We Can't Shake the Vibecession, Even in the Face of Good Newshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-16/high-prices-and-phantom-debt-why-we-can-t-shake-the-vibecession
https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU