Episode 18 of the @TradingPlacesPod featuring James Riney from Coral Capital is out now!This week: Dave and Aman kick off 2026 with their macroeconomic predictions (GDP growth, Fed rate cuts, and tax refunds), break down the IPO market outlook (SpaceX at $1.6T?!, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks), and dive deep into the secondary market dynamics for companies that won't go public in 2026. Plus, we explore the private Mag 7 vs. public Mag 7 in our [valuation corner] to answer the big question: where would you rather be—public or private markets?Then, Dave sits down with James Riney, founder and managing partner of Coral Capital in Tokyo, Japan. James shares how he went from JP Morgan to founding one of Japan's largest crypto exchanges (Coin Check) to launching 500 Startups Japan (now Coral Capital) at age 26. They discuss Japan's explosive VC growth (from $700M to $7-10B annually), the rise of "hidden unicorns" (companies that IPO'd before hitting $1B), why secondaries weren't a thing in Japan until recently, and Coral's massive $100M secondary sale in SmartHR—the largest secondary exit ever in Japan that returned 6X on their fund while still holding half their stake.[ timestamps ]00:00 – cold open01:07 – [ tech & vc news ]01:29 – macro growth picture 🖼️07:40 – 2026 IPO predictions 🔮10:24 – 2ndry market game plan 🏈16:43 – Nvidia gives Groq $20B 💰22:00 – SoftBank buys DigitalBridge $4B 🌉23:01 – Google acquires Intersect $4.75B 💸25:42 – Meta hands Manus $2B 👋27:25 – hot IPO Market in China31:35 – [ intvw: James Riney / Coral Capital ]31:46 – $100M 2ndry sale of SmartHR 🧠34:44 – Japanese founding story 🏯36:15 – Japan startup scene 🇯🇵41:35 – Coral Capital strategy 🪸43:54 – China vs Japan vs USA 🌏1:13:59 – [ val corner: mag7 public vs private ]1:13:59 – public mag7 analysis 🔔1:18:38 – Tesla Elon magic 🪄1:22:00 – private mag7 deep dive 🕵️1:27:10 – 2026 2ndry strategy 🧐1:30:51 – second takes[ links ] [ trading places podcast = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ james riney = https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesriney | https://x.com/jriney ] [ coral capital = https://coralcap.co ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Pod highlights this week:-2026 macro setup is strong: 4% GDP growth, Fed quantitative easing starting, and the biggest tax refunds ever hitting Q1 (tips, social security, overtime exemptions)-IPO predictions: SpaceX targeting $1.6T valuation, OpenAI and Anthropic likely to go public, plus Databricks, Stripe, Canva, Kraken in the mix-Private market reality check: top 10 AI companies getting all the attention, but the real secondary opportunities are in the next 200-300 companies trading at discounts-Nvidia's shopping spree: $20B for Groq (talent + inference tech), $100B in annual free cash flow to deploy—expect more acquisitions-Japan VC market exploded: from $700M (2015) to $7-10B today, with companies IPO'ing at series B/C stage instead of staying private for 12 years-SmartHR secondary: Coral Capital's $100M sale to General Atlantic = largest secondary in Japan history, 6X return on fund, still holding half their stake for the IPO-Hidden unicorns in Japan: 42+ companies hit $1B valuation within 12 years but were already public—so they don't count in "unicorn" stats (definition = private company)-Valuation corner showdown: Public Mag 7 trading at 7-10X revenue with profits; Private Mag 7 top tier (OpenAI, Anthropic, X.AI) at 20-30X revenue with no profits—priced for perfection-Dave's take: avoid the froth at the top (OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX), hunt for value in second-tier private companies (Canva at 7X revenue, Databricks at 20X revenue) trading at discounts outside organized tender windows
