While developing economies face lower job displacement risks from artificial intelligence compared with developed nations, gaps in infrastructure development, institutional capacity and relevant skill sets largely restrict their access to the benefits that AI has to offer, said a recent World Bank report. 世界银行近期一份报告表明，虽然相较发达国家，发展中经济体遭遇人工智能造成岗位流失的风险更低，但基础设施建设、机构办事能力以及相关技能储备方面的短板，很大程度阻碍它们享受人工智能带来的红利。 According to the World Development Report 2026, which was released on Tuesday, only 4.5 percent of existing jobs in low and middleincome countries are at risk of automation by generative AI, compared with 14.2 percent in highincome countries. 周二发布的《2026年世界发展报告》显示，中低收入国家仅有4.5%的现有岗位存在被生成式人工智能自动化取代的风险，而高收入国家该数值为14.2%。 At the same time, AI could meaningfully boost productivity in 16.2 percent of jobs in developing nations, which is not far below the estimated 18.7 percent for highincome countries. 与此同时，人工智能能够切实提升发展中国家16.2%岗位的生产效率，该数值和高收入国家预估的18.7%相差不大。 While the labor market in developing economies is less concentrated in occupations that are most exposed to generative AI, the figures suggest that workers and businesses could still use the technology to improve performance. 尽管发展中经济体劳动力市场里，容易受生成式人工智能冲击的职业占比较低，但以上数据说明劳动者和企业依旧可以依靠这项技术提升工作成效。 The World Bank described the report as "the first comprehensive assessment" of the implications of AI for developing economies, offering a perspective that has often been overlooked in academic and policy discussions focused largely on developed nations. 世界银行称这份报告是首份针对人工智能对发展中经济体影响的全面评估，提供了一种在多数聚焦发达国家的学术研讨与政策探讨当中常被忽视的视角。 "AI has thrown developing economies a lifeline, and they should seize it," said Indermit Gill, senior vicepresident and chief economist at the World Bank Group in a news release. 世界银行集团高级副行长兼首席经济学家英德米特·吉尔在新闻通告中表示：“人工智能为发展中经济体送上了救命机遇，各国应当把握住它。” Weakest average growth 平均增速跌至数十年低谷 Developing economies are currently experiencing their weakest average growth performance in three decades, the World Bank said, adding that AI could be particularly valuable in cases where shortages of skilled manpower and institutional capacity have hindered development. 世界银行表示，现如今发展中经济体的平均经济增速创下三十年来最差纪录；在专业劳动力紧缺、机构能力不足拖累发展的境况之下，人工智能能够发挥格外关键的作用。 According to the report, AI tools can help doctors diagnose illnesses, support teachers in adapting teaching methods, guide farmers in making planting decisions, provide advice to small businesses, and enable banks to assess borrowers without conventional credit histories. 报告提出，人工智能工具能够协助医生诊断病症、帮助教师调整授课方式、指导农户敲定种植方案、为小微企业出谋划策，还可以帮助银行评估没有常规信贷记录的借贷人。 Governments could use AI to improve tax collection, social programs, healthcare services, education curriculums and disaster response, thereby extending limited publicsector capacity across larger populations, the report also said. 报告还提到，各国政府能够借助人工智能优化税收征管、社会福利项目、医疗服务、课程设置以及灾害应急工作，让有限的公共服务能力惠及更多民众。 Gill noted that developing economies do not require large AI models or big data centers to reap the benefits of the technology. "By adapting small, lowcost AI tools to local conditions, they can bring better medical care, education, judicial services and agricultural extension within the reach of millions," he said. 吉尔指出，发展中经济体不必依靠大型人工智能模型或是大型数据中心收获技术红利。他说道：“只要因地制宜改造小型低成本人工智能工具，数以百万计的民众便可以享受到更加优质的医疗、教育、司法以及农业推广服务。” The World Bank cautioned that "such optimism should not be unbridled", indicating countries that could benefit most from AI are often the least prepared to embrace the technology. 世界银行警示人们不可盲目乐观，可以从人工智能当中获益最多的国家，往往最欠缺接纳该项技术的基础条件。 Harnessing the power of AI calls for a dependable foundation involving a stable electricity supply, affordable highspeed internet, capable institutions and skilled workers, but many developing economies have yet to achieve universal access even to electricity and the internet, it said. 报告称，想要利用好人工智能，就必须拥有可靠基础：稳定供电、平价高速网络、完备的管理机构以及技术劳工；可不少发展中经济体至今都没能实现电力和互联网全民覆盖。 The report shows that developing economies account for just 5 percent of highperformance computing capacity and 12 percent of secure internet servers. In subSaharan Africa, for example, almost onethird of rural schools still lack a stable electricity supply, and more than twothirds lack dependable internet connections. 数据显示，发展中经济体仅占有全球5%的高性能算力以及12%的安全互联网服务器。以撒哈拉以南非洲举例，将近三分之一的乡村学校供电不稳定，超过三分之二的学校缺少可靠网络。 While AI could significantly boost performance globally before the end of the decade, the opportunity is not guaranteed for all, the World Bank said. It added that the most advanced AI systems are being developed by a small number of countries and companies, while many developing economies still lack the basic infrastructure needed to effectively use AI. 世界银行表示，尽管本世纪十年代末之前人工智能有望在全世界大幅提升生产水平，但并不是所有国家都能够抓住机遇。报告补充，顶尖人工智能系统只由少数国家和企业研发，多数发展中经济体尚且欠缺高效运用AI所需的基础配套设施。 Although adopting existing generative AI tools is less expensive, imported systems may perform poorly when applied to languages, cultures and public services inadequately represented in their training data. For example, more than 2,000 languages spoken in Africa are neglected in major language models, according to the report's concept note. 虽说引进现成生成式AI工具成本偏低，但外来系统面对训练数据集当中缺少样本的本土语言、本土文化、公共事务时，使用效果很差。报告概要说明，非洲有两千余种本土语言没有被主流语言模型所顾及。 Another concern, the report said, is that governments that lack the expertise or data needed to embrace these systems could become dependent on a small number of AI solution vendors, and those dominant vendors could shape standards and regulatory frameworks in those countries. 报告还提出另一隐患：缺少专业人才和相关数据的政府在引进AI系统之后，容易受制于少数技术供应商；这些占据上风的供应商甚至能够左右当地行业标准和监管制度。 Three step strategy 三步走战略 The World Bank called on developing economies to follow a threestep strategy — adopting available AI tools, adapting them to local conditions and advancing toward frontier development over time. 世界银行呼吁各发展中经济体落实三步走策略：引进现成人工智能工具、结合本土环境进行改造、循序渐进向着前沿技术研发迈进。 This approach would allow governments to initially focus on practical, lowercost applications, rather than making expensive attempts to reproduce the most advanced models before basic foundations are in place, it said. 该策略能够让政府优先发展实用廉价的AI应用，不必在基础条件尚未完备之时耗费巨资复刻顶尖人工智能模型。 Gaurav Nayyar, director of the World Development Report 2026, warned that the window to get it right is narrow. "Developing countries that build the foundations now — power, connectivity, skills and institutions — will be positioned to adopt and adapt AI for their people," he said. 《2026年世界发展报告》负责人高拉夫·纳亚尔提醒，合适的发展窗口期十分短暂。他表示：“现如今打好电力、网络、人才、制度基础的发展中国家，往后便能为本国民众引进并改良人工智能技术。” comprehensive /ˌkɒmprɪˈhensɪv/全面的，综合的 unbridled /ʌnˈbraɪdld/不受约束的，盲目放任的 harness /ˈhɑːnɪs/利用，驾驭 vendor /ˈvendə(r)/供应商，售卖商 frontier /ˈfrʌntɪə(r)/前沿，尖端领域
