The Real Investment Show Podcast

Lance Roberts
  • 4.7 (57)
  • Business News
  • Updated Daily

It's a show about life, markets, sweat-equity, and the pursuit of wealth in a capitalist market.

  1. 20h ago

    10-5-26 Q4 Market Outlook: Will Strong Markets Finish Strong?

    Can a strong year for stocks carry its momentum through the fourth quarter? History provides an interesting backdrop for the Q4 market outlook. Lance Roberts examines the forces that could shape markets through year-end, including rising earnings estimates, corporate buybacks, investor sentiment, liquidity, interest rates, and the continuing dominance of Technology. We'll also look at the other side of the setup: weak market breadth, elevated Treasury yields, narrow leadership, and the risk that strength in the major indexes may be masking weakness beneath the surface. 0:00 - INTRO 1:00 - Earnings Season Begins 3:20 - Friday Employment Weaker than Expected, as Falling Trend Continues 3:45 - There is deterioration in the Economy 6:59 - Markets Close a Decent Week Higher 7:48 - Volatility Showing No Signs of Concern; Breadth is a Different Story 9:07 - Markets Remain Well Above Moving Averages 12:07 - Preview: Sequence of Returns Risk 13:04 - How much Do You Need to Be Happy (chart) 18:21 - Looking Ahead into Fourth Quarter - Is October Cursed by the Market gods? 22:43 - Looking at the Drivers that Cause Crashes (not apparent now) 23:48 - Q4 Statistics (chart) 26:42 - Market Returns in Mid-term Election Years (Chart) 28:10 - Earnings are a Driver for the Markets (chart) 30:01 - Factors that Affect Markets (chart) 34:11 - Computerized Trading Algorithms (CTA) Performance (chart) 37:30 - The Economy is Running on Business Spending (ISM) (chart) 39:31 - Q3: The Index Isn't the Average Stock (chart) 40:26 - Market Breadth is at Levels Where Normally They Reverse (chart) 42:15 - What to do next: Guidelines to Follow (chart) ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Breadth Sends a Warning," https://youtu.be/gZDLO_jSZrg ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/_eYgx-MHUvI?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "Funeral Planning - Make the Decisions Before Your Family Has To." https://youtube.com/live/oGCV1mUrzwk?feature=share- ------ Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Q4 Market Outlook: Strong Years Usually Finish Strong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/q4-market-outlook-strong-years-usually-finish-strong/ "Price Of Happiness: Missing The Things That Matter" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/price-of-happiness-measuring-the-wrong-things/ "Sequence Of Return Risk: The Math That Breaks Retirements" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/sequence-of-return-risk-the-math-that-breaks-retirements/ ------- REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "More Than A Portfolio: Financial Planning PanelL" https://streamyard.com/watch/tCqfFT6bMEBn ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #MarketBreadth #EarningsSeason #Investing #Q4MarketOutlook #MarketOutlook

  2. 22h ago

    10-5-26 Market Breadth Sends a Warning | Before the Bell

    The S&P 500 remains resilient, but market breadth is telling a very different story. The percentage of stocks on bullish buy signals and those trading above their 50- and 200-day moving averages has fallen sharply, even as the major index remains well above key technical support. Volatility remains subdued, momentum has cooled, and the S&P 500's previous deviation from its 200-DMA has narrowed without a major market decline. That leaves stocks caught between deteriorating participation beneath the surface and an index that continues to trade sideways. The next catalyst could be Q3 earnings season. With strong earnings growth expected, meeting those expectations could provide another leg higher. Missing them, however, could finally force the market to choose a direction. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gZDLO_jSZrg --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #MarketBreadth #EarningsSeason #Investing

  3. 4d ago

    10-2-26 Funeral Planning - Make the Decisions Before Your Family Has To

    Funeral planning may not be anyone's favorite financial-planning conversation, but making decisions now can save your family money, confusion, and difficult choices later. Richard Rosso and Jonathan McCarty take a surprisingly entertaining look at the financial side of planning your own funeral, from traditional burial and cremation to cemeteries, niches, pet burials, aquamation, becoming a tree, and even having your cremains launched into space. We'll examine funeral and burial costs, prepaid arrangements, inflation, cemetery pricing, add-ons, paperwork, and the importance of communicating your final wishes. Can locking in funeral costs today make financial sense? What decisions should you make in advance? And how can planning ahead become an expression of consideration for the people you leave behind? Plus, Richard shares some memorable real-life experiences involving cremains, cemetery niches, his mother's remains, the Grim Reaper, and why apparently even Buc-ee's can inspire a conversation about where you'd like to spend eternity. The subject may be death, but the financial-planning lesson is very much about life: make your wishes known, understand the costs, organize the paperwork, and don't leave your family guessing. 0:00 - INTRO 0:20 - Planning a Client's Funeral (DIY version) 2:55 - Advanced Funeral Planning & Cemeteries 5:46 - Niches for Cremains, Richard & the Grim Reaper 7:54 - Getting Richard's Mother Out of the Closet 15:15 - Cremation? Making Decisions Now So Your Relatives Won't Have To 15:43 - Taking the Dogs With You 16:56 - Cost Effective Solutions 18:01 - The Stories in the Niches 20:10 - The Cost of Burial 22:02 - Pre-cutting Burial Sites 23:18 - Adding more People 24:51 - Buc-cee's Burials 26:33 - Pet Cemetary 27:30 - The Business of Burials - Additional costs & add-ons 32:14 - Funeral Inflation & Locking in Costs 34:15 - SCI International 36:04 - Dealing with the Paperwork 38:03 - Communicating Final Wishes 40:31 - How do You Want to Be Buried (Be a Tree, Aquamation, Rocket Launch) 45:45 - Location, Location, Location... 48:00 - The Ultimate Expression of Caring & Respect ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/oGCV1mUrzwk?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "From TINA to TIGA: Diversification Pays Again" https://youtube.com/live/JV2n7ESiZ54?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FuneralPlanning #EstatePlanning #FinancialPlanning #FuneralCosts #Cremation

  4. 4d ago

    10-1-26 From TINA to TIGA: Diversification Pays Again

    For years, investors lived by TINA: "There Is No Alternative" to stocks. With interest rates near zero and bond yields offering little income, equities dominated the investment landscape. But that math has changed. Today, Treasury yields are above 5%, investment-grade corporate bonds offer competitive income, and real yields have climbed to levels not seen in nearly two decades. Meanwhile, stock valuations remain historically elevated. That creates TIGA: "There Is a Good Alternative." Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine what the changing relationship between stocks and bonds means for portfolio diversification, why the equity risk premium has narrowed, and how investors can think about balancing income, risk, and long-term return potential. 0:00 - INTRO 1:04 - TINA, TIGA; Bulls & Bears; no pants 2:28 - Did the Fed make a mistake in hiking rates prior to PCE Index Release? 3:13 - Oil Prices & Inflation vs Price Levels 4:21 - GDP Calculations: Consumers and Businesses 5:17 - What the Fed is Fighting 8:13 - Where is a Trading opportunity in Bonds? (TNX) 11:15- Investors are Off-sides on Bonds 15:00 - TINA vs TIGA: What it Means 17:27 - How Are You Getting Paid to Diversify? 19:39 - Equity Risk Premium or Discount (chart) 22:15 - Bonds vs Bond ETF's 25:26 - Why Bonds are Like Annuities 27:00 - Rooting for a Technology Crash (chart)... 28:43 - Technology Stocks are Least-sensitive to Interest Rates 32:09 - Yields Take a While to Impact 33:21 - Credit Spreads are Starting to Widen: A Warning Sign for Markets? 39:06 - Small Business Loan Rates 41:07 - The Thing that the Market Cares About (Forward Earnings) 44:56 - Employment Data Preview ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Bond Yields May Be Setting Up a Trade," https://youtu.be/ikGixV15dME ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/JV2n7ESiZ54?feature=share -------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: What's Holding Up the Market? " https://youtube.com/live/BSygFM2sS7Y ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #InterestRates #TLT #Investing

  5. 4d ago

    10-1-26 Bond Yields May Be Setting Up a Trade | Before the Bell

    Treasury yields have spiked, with the 10-Year Treasury around 5.29%, but the technical picture suggests rates may be getting stretched. Historically, extreme deviations from longer-term trends have often been followed by a retracement in yields, potentially creating a short-term trading opportunity in longer-duration bonds. Lance Roberts examines the 20-year history of Treasury yields, the current technical setup, and why heavy short positioning in bonds could amplify a reversal if rates begin to fall. This is not a long-term forecast for lower interest rates, but a look at what technical mean reversion could mean for bond prices over the next several weeks or months. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/ikGixV15dME --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #InterestRates #TLT #Investing

  6. 5d ago

    9-30-26 Q&A Wednesday: What's Holding Up the Market?

    The major indexes remain near record territory, but beneath the surface, the picture is considerably more complicated. Technology continues to provide important support while market breadth has weakened, Treasury yields remain elevated, and small- and mid-cap stocks have faced greater pressure. Meanwhile, investors are weighing the Federal Reserve's latest rate hike, higher bond yields, oil prices, stretched areas of the market, Nvidia's massive stock buyback, and questions about whether Technology can continue carrying so much of the market's weight. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff take your questions directly from the YouTube live chat and discuss what these developments could mean for markets, portfolios, interest rates, bonds, retirement planning, and the economy. 0:00 - INTRO 0:56 - Last day of the Quarter; Friday is Employment Day 2:18 - JOLTS Report - Labor Hoarding 6:10 - Markets Continue to Consolidate; Breadth is Very Weak 7:51 - The Set up for a Year End Rally 10:46 - When you're right...and keeping score 13:00 - Cash on Hand? 13:46 - Investor Sentiment Then & Now 15:27 - What about Utilities Now? 16:20 - RSP vs SPY? 17:24 - Interest Rate Sensitive Small- & Mid-caps? 19:08 - When Trading Patterns Fail? (chart) 22:15 - Can You Remember a Time when the US Has Been This Resilient? (yes) 25:40 - Data Center Growth Projections to 2040 27:48 - When do We Know When the Bond Market Crashes? (Why does the Fed hike rates?) (chart) 32:38 - Taking Advantage of Rate Environment to Buy a House 35:34 - Collateralized Loan Obligations as Investments: Know the quality of underlying loans 37:13 - Is Now a Good Time to Invest in REITS? 39:57 - Total Cost of a House Over Time? (What the Real American Dream is...) 42:13 - What is a Qualified Dividend (AMLP & Buying Dividend Companies) 43:44 - The Three Legs of a Portfolio 45:11 - Bumping Up 401k Contributions ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Breadth Sends a Warning " https://youtu.be/YR2WHQHpryU ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/BSygFM2sS7Y -------- Watch our previous show, "Stop Trying to Beat the Market" https://youtu.be/_m7uSDmtseI ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketBreadth #SP500 #Investing #MarketOutlook #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketOutlook #Bonds

  7. 5d ago

    9-30-26 Market Breadth Sends a Warning | Before the Bell

    Markets remain stuck in consolidation, but beneath the major indexes, the picture looks considerably weaker. Only about 40% of stocks are trading above their 50-day moving averages, while small-caps, mid-caps, utilities, real estate, and financials have faced significant pressure. At the same time, the growing number of stocks hitting 52-week lows and falling below key moving averages may be pushing market breadth toward more extreme levels. Historically, those conditions can become contrarian signals as selling pressure becomes extended. As investors head into the fourth quarter, rising earnings estimates, the return of corporate buybacks, available market liquidity, and increasingly negative sentiment could provide support for a year-end rally. That does not guarantee one. Lance Roberts explains why investors should watch what is happening beneath the indexes and avoid becoming overly risk-averse as Q4 begins. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/YR2WHQHpryU --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketBreadth #SP500 #Investing #MarketOutlook

  8. 6d ago

    9-29-26 Stop Trying to Beat the Market

    Can even the wealthiest investors consistently beat the market? Recent data comparing the Forbes 400 with the S&P 500 raises an important question about investment performance, indexing, and the pursuit of market-beating returns. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn examine why Americans across generations remain uncertain about their future financial needs, and what that says about the importance of planning beyond portfolio performance. Then, we put a real-world income decision under the microscope: a 5-year Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuity (MYGA) yielding 6% versus a 5-year U.S. Treasury yielding 5%. Is the additional yield worth the differences in liquidity, guarantees, taxes, and risk? 0:00 - INTRO 1:00 - National Coffee Day 1:55 - ISM Report/Dallas Fed: 4% GDP Growth? 4:02 - Earnings Season About to Begin/Market Seasonality Set up 6:20 - Markets Continue to Bore; very deceptive 7:54 - Reflexive Rally today? 9:36 - Where to bet on Markets' next move? 11:24 - National Coffee Day & Lance's Weekend Indulgence; Peanut Butter poll 15:15 - Kneejerk Reactions by Investors to Constantly Beat the Market (Fortune 400 vs S&P 500) 18:34 - When Investors Meddle with Portfolios 21:58 - How to Lose Money on a Bond 23:20 - When You're Down in a Position (and don't want to sell at a loss...) 25:49 - Is There a Strategy for Looking for under-valued bonds? 29:37 - Are there Concerns over Stability of US Treasury Market? (6% MYGA vs 5% Treasury) 36:51 - What about Brokered CD's? 39:31 - Managing a Portfolio for Maximum Tax Efficiency; Dealing with Taxes on Bonds 46:58 - Investor Optimism & Beating the Market - Investors Keep Less than the Funds They Own (chart) ==== Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's "Before the Bell" report, "What the S&P 500 Is Hiding," https://youtu.be/_m7uSDmtseI ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/rw1VkcLx91U -------- Watch our previous show, "Can the S&P 500 Really Reach 9,000?" https://youtube.com/live/6XwMMbygt6k ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Jefferies Sets 9000 Market Target: Everything Must Go Right" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/jefferies-sets-9000-target-for-market-everything-must-go-right/ "Investor Optimism Wins As An Investment Strategy" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-optimism-wins-as-an-investment-strategy/ "McDonald's At Four-Year Lows Isn't As Worrisome As Some Fear" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/mcdonalds-at-four-year-lows-isnt-as-worrisome-as-some-fear/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SP500 #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #Investing #Nvidia #FinancialPlanning #RetirementPlanning #Bonds #MYGA #PeanutButter

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It's a show about life, markets, sweat-equity, and the pursuit of wealth in a capitalist market.

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