Mortgage rates, inflation, and the bond market are all reacting to one thing this week: oil above $100 a barrel and the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Here's what the Fed is actually watching, and why mortgage rates could still fall even if they hike. 🛢️ Oil crosses $100 a barrel, and why that's the real story behind this week's inflation numbers 📊 Breaking down the headline CPI, core CPI, and producer price index, and what each one tells the Fed 📈 The mortgage bond and 10 Year Treasury charts I check every morning, and what a red day actually means for your rate 🏦 CME FedWatch shows an 88% chance the Fed hikes this week, plus the rate hike path through next July 🏠 My advice right now if you're under contract, buying, or refinancing, including how much buffer to build into your rate lock 📝 Full breakdown with charts on my blog: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog 0:00 Oil Over $100 and This Week's Fed Meeting 1:40 Inflation Breakdown: CPI, Core CPI, and Producer Prices 3:50 Why Oil Is Driving Inflation (The Orange Crop Analogy) 6:10 Reading the Bond Market and the Mortgage Bond Chart 8:50 Fed Odds, the Rate Hike Path, and What You Should Do Now 🏠 APPLY NOW — One Application, One Credit Pull, 30+ Lenders Compared https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register 📅 REQUEST A FREE CONSULTATION https://go.oncehub.com/solvitmortgagealan 🔍 FREE LE REVIEW — Already have a quote? Send me your Loan Estimate and I'll compare it against 30+ lenders https://www.therateupdate.com/loan-estimate-review 📉 JOIN RATE WATCH — FREE Rate Monitoring https://rw2.therateupdate.com/ Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio. This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy. Here we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions. WHAT YOU'LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL 🏠 Daily mortgage rate updates 📉 Housing market news and home price trends 📊 Inflation, CPI, and Federal Reserve analysis 📈 10-Year Treasury and mortgage bond movement 💰 Refinance and debt consolidation opportunities 🏡 First-time homebuyer education 🔁 Rate Watch mortgage monitoring tools 🧮 Mortgage calculators and payment tools WHERE TO START 🏡 Buying a home — FHA, VA, USDA, conventional, jumbo and down payment assistance https://www.therateupdate.com/first-time-home-buyer 🔁 Refinancing or accessing equity — cash-out, FHA Streamline, VA IRRRL, HELOC and reverse https://www.therateupdate.com/homeowner-options 🏢 Buying rentals — DSCR on 1 to 8 units, bank statement and no-income options https://www.therateupdate.com/investment-property-loans 🎁 Down payment assistance — 3.5% to 5%, including grants you never repay https://www.therateupdate.com/down-payment-assistance TOP RESOURCES 📊 TRU Mortgage Command Center — Live Rate Dashboard https://command.therateupdate.com/ 💳 TRU Debt Optimizer https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/ 🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools https://www.therateupdate.com/mortgage-calculators ✉️ Ask Dan a Question https://www.therateupdate.com/contact FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATE YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio Instagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdate TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate If this helped you understand mortgage rates a little better, subscribe and turn on notifications so you catch the next update. DISCLAIMER Dan Frio | NMLS #246527 | PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender 524 Main St, Hazard, KY 41701 NMLS Consumer Access: https://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/ Dan Frio is a federally registered mortgage loan originator with PBT Bancorp. Mortgage products are originated by PBT Bancorp, NMLS #257781. This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets. All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with. Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, or financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify. #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #Inflation #Homebuyers
