Smart Investing with Brent & Chase Wilsey

Brent & Chase Wilsey
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Smart Investing is the radio show where Brent and Chase try to make investing easier to understand. They demonstrate long-term investment strategies to help you find good value investments.

  1. 5H AGO

    February 20th, 2026 | Google’s Century Bond, Big Expenses for Companies Investing in AI, High Meat Prices, Do Commission-Free Annuities Make Annuities More Attractive? & More

    Is investing in Google’s century bond a good idea? If you don’t want to read any further, and just want the basic answer, for investors it’s a terrible idea. On the other hand, for companies, universities or even governments, issuing a century bond is a great way to lock in low rates for a hundred years. As I said for investors, it’s a terrible idea, here is an example. In 2020, the Austrian government issued a century bond that locked in a yield of 0.85%, which was a great deal for them. But for investors who purchased that bond, it is now trading for 30 cents on the euro. Another example of how things can change is back in 1997, J.C. Penney issued a 100-year bond. Back then no one would have imagined bankruptcy would occur just a little over 20 years later for the company. You may be wondering who would benefit from buying these bonds? Generally, it would be your insurers or pension funds. They both have long-dated liabilities, so long-term bonds give them comfort, knowing what the future cash flows will be. There will also likely be some hedge funds and high-risk investors that will want to trade the bonds as they will have a high amount of fluctuation based on interest rates. In fixed income investing, there is something called duration, which essentially looks at the number of years it takes to recoup a bond's true cost. The longer the duration, the more price volatility for the bond when it comes to interest rate moves. Ultimately, for the average investor I would say to stay away because predicting which way interest rates are heading can be very difficult game and it could destroy your investment returns.   Big expenses are coming for companies that invest in AI We have talked about this in the past couple years and now after the companies spent roughly $500 billion in 2025 it's estimated they will spend another $3 trillion by the end of the decade. As the companies spend more money on data centers, chips and other items for AI, their depreciation expense will rise each year, which will reduce their income. The big tech companies are kind of sneaky currently with depreciation. Many companies like railroads and other companies report depreciation as a standalone operating expense on their income statement. The reason depreciation is important for investors to understand is that eventually equipment becomes obsolete or worn out and must be replaced. But the big tech companies currently don’t have to break out depreciation until 2028 after new rule changes take effect. Currently, they include depreciation in the cost of goods sold or sometimes in research and development or general and administrative expenses. This makes it very difficult for investors and analysts to understand the true numbers. The big tech companies defense is they currently include it in the footnotes. However, companies like Microsoft have as many as 15-20 footnotes, which are generally not seen by investors or analysts. Perhaps the big tech companies will continue to hold onto their lofty valuations for now, but at some point, the real earnings will come through, and the stocks could take a major beating. Don’t blame the restaurant or the grocery store for the high price of meat I’m sure you’ve noticed that if you want to go out and have a good steak, you’re probably going to spend somewhere in the neighborhood of $45-$50, depending on the restaurant and how big the steak is. There’s a big shortage of cattle in the United States and the numbers are staggering. In January, there were only 86.2 million cattle and calves, which is down from a peak of more than 130 million in the mid 1970s. The number of people in the United States far surpasses the number of cattle and supply/demand being what it is, it is pushing the price of cattle to higher levels. The 86.2 million heads of cattle may sound like a lot, but when you look at the numbers it is the smallest herd since 1951 and that’s when the population in the United States was 157 million. The population now stands around 344 million people, which is an increase of 119%. All things being equal, there should be around 188 million heads of cattle available. There are three main reasons why the price of meat is high and the number of cattle is low. We used to receive about 5% of our beef supply from Mexico, but a parasitic fly larvae called screwworm has destroyed that supply. Another problem is a lack of rain in Texas, which is the largest producer of our beef supply with 12.5 million cows. If ranchers don’t get enough rain, they produce smaller herds because the cost of feed increases. You may be thinking there’s a lot of cows in California as you drive up 15 and you are right because California is the fourth largest producing state for cows at 5 million, but 1.7 million of those cows are dairy cows. The third reason is simply being a rancher is hard work, and it is generally passed down from generation to generation. Most kids when they’re growing up do not dream about working on a ranch in the hot sun in the dirt all day long. Also, with the price of land some ranchers realize they’re better off selling the ranch for a big profit than continuing to work the land. Fortunately, many ranchers love what they do and despite the hard work continue to do it generation after generation. If you know any young kids that like riding horses, maybe they should consider going to work on a ranch and save all that college money?   Financial Planning: Do Commission-Free Annuities Make Annuities More Attractive? One of the primary downsides of annuities has always been the layers of fees that drag on returns, along with upfront commissions that create conflicts of interest in how they’re recommended. Commission-free annuities attempt to address these concerns by eliminating the embedded commission and often lowering internal product expenses, which in theory should improve transparency and net performance. However, these products are typically sold by fee-based advisors who charge ongoing advisory fees, meaning that while the conflict of interest may be reduced, the cost savings inside the annuity can be offset by the advisor’s separate fee. Even with improved pricing structures, the fundamental challenge remains, annuities generally offer lower expected long-term internal rates of return compared to investing directly in diversified market portfolios. While annuities provide guarantees such as downside protection and lifetime income, those guarantees come at a cost that often outweighs their benefit. In many cases, investors can generate greater long-term growth and higher income from a well-diversified portfolio. The returns may not be technically guaranteed, but it can still be done in a conservative and sustainable way.   Companies Discussed: Mattel, Inc. (MAT), DraftKings Inc. (DKNG), Ferrari N.V. (RACE) & Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR)

    56 min

  2. FEB 13

    February 13th, 2026 | Should you invest by following when insiders buy? It's not a stock market, it's a market of stocks, Inflation report better than expected, Larger tax refunds? & More

    Should you invest by following when insiders buy? It sounds like it’s an easy thing. Just do what the insiders do because they obviously know the company well and if the stock were to drop in value and the insiders commit to purchasing shares, it must be a smart investment. Unfortunately, it’s not that easy and there are many other factors involved. Data also shows that longer term it may not even matter. Over my 45 years of doing this, I have even seen sometimes where they borrow money from the company to actually do the purchase of the shares. With that said when they are committing their own money, does the stock do well afterwards? The Wall Street Journal did an analysis of 1,400 publicly disclosed insider purchases using S&P 500 companies. Going back to 2020, they discovered insiders at 327 companies had a total of $3.7 billion in stock trades over $100,000. Most of the purchases were completed after a decline from the previous 30 days and produced a median gain of about 2% a month later but then began to decline after that. The numbers also showed that only 15% of the purchases fully recovered from where they had fallen in the previous 30 days before the share purchase. It should also be noted that they cannot act on insider information, so if there’s something major that can move the stock either up or down, they would probably go to jail if they were to act upon it. In other words, since they can’t act upon insider information, they don’t have much of an advantage over someone doing a good amount of research about the company.   It's not a stock market, it's a market of stocks I have often made this claim when things get crazy in the stock market. What I mean by this is you don't just have to buy the stock market and instead can look for good companies within the market. The reason this is so important to understand is because individual stocks can still do well even when the broader market struggles, especially when the market gets heavily concentrated like it is today. I often reference the tech boom and bust as an example investors should study and in times like this, I believe it is even more applicable. From the tech-stock peak on March 27th, 2000, through the end of that year, the S&P 500 fell 13.4%. It is important to remember that the S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index, which means the larger the company the more it makes up of the index. If we instead look at the equal-weighted S&P 500, where every company has essentially the same weighting, it actually gained 10.7% from March 27th through the end of 2000. Looking at specific sectors during that period, utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples were actually up about 40% to 45%, while tech fell 51.8%. It has been nice for many investors to enjoy the easy ride in the S&P 500 for the last decade plus, but I continue to believe that over the next 10 years the returns will be much more subdued in the index than investors have become accustomed to.    Inflation report comes in better than expected The Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, showed headline January inflation was just 2.4%. This compares to an estimate of 2.5% and last month's reading of 2.7%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in line with expectations at 2.5%, but it was also lower than December's reading of 2.6% and the smallest increase since March 2021 when it climbed by just 1.6%. Food prices put a little pressure on the headline number as they were up 2.9% compared to last year. Most of this came from food away from home where prices were up 4.0%. Food at home on the other hand only saw prices climb 2.1%. Energy prices helped the headline number as prices declined 0.1% as gasoline prices fell 7.3%. Offsetting this benefit was utility prices where electricity was up 6.3% and utility gas service was up 9.8%. Many other areas saw muted price changes, and shelter continued to add pressure to both the headline and core CPI numbers. Even though the annual rate of 3.0% was lower than December's level of 3.2%, it is still above both the headline and core numbers. As a reminder, this is a huge weight at around 34-35% of headline CPI and over 40% of core CPI. If all else remains the same and shelter declines this year, I believe we could see that 2% target achieved. I was surprised to learn the Owner's Equivalent Rent (OER), which essentially measures the rate homeowners believe they could rent their house out for, carries most of the weight at over 70% of the shelter category. In January, the OER was up 3.3% while the actual rent of primary residence category was only up 2.8%.    Financial Planning: You May Be Receiving a Larger Refund New tax rules could help many filers see larger refunds this year, with some benefits happening automatically and others requiring careful reporting. The standard deduction increased for everyone, with taxpayers aged 65 or older receiving an additional $6,000 boost. The state and local tax (SALT) cap rose from $10,000 to $40,000 for those who itemize, and the child tax credit increased by $200, from $2,000 to $2,200. These automatic changes may lower tax liability without any special reporting. However, other deductions such as those for auto loan interest, overtime pay, and tip income must be properly reported to receive the full benefit. Taxpayers should review their returns carefully to ensure all available deductions and credits are captured. If a larger refund does show up, it may be a good time to update 2026 withholding elections to increase monthly take-home pay instead of waiting all year for next year’s refund.   Companies Discussed: C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW), Cushman & Wakefield Limited (CWK), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) & PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)

    56 min

  3. FEB 7

    February 6th, 2026 | Has the US dollar become too weak? GLP-1 drugs; what’s the concern? Is the US housing market becoming a buyers market? How would an S&P 500 Portfolio Work in Retirement? & More

    Has the US dollar become too weak? It can be difficult to filter through the headlines that make it appear that the dollar has dropped and lost 50% of its value and is getting close to collapse as some doom and gloom people would want you to believe. The truth is since January 2025; the dollar has been down about 10% against other major currencies. Keep in mind that it fluctuates every day, every hour, and every minute. This is normal, but the headlines can be very scary and it's also important to understand that over the last five years the dollar index has been up about 7%. There are pros and cons to a weak dollar. If you’re planning on traveling to Europe or some other foreign country, hotels and other items will cost you more when the dollar weakens since our dollar buys less. Also, the price of foreign cars and trucks will increase because again a dollar buys less. But the other side of the coin is that people from other parts of the world can now come to the United States and spend money in our economy since their currency now goes further. Also, many of our products that we export will be less expensive so exports should increase while our imports decrease, reducing our trade deficit. Lower interest rates can cause our dollar to fall, but a strong economy can help counterbalance that decline. Will there be a default on the dollar? The chances of that happening are extremely low for many reasons. The US dollar is still the dominant global reserve currency, which adds strength to the dollar. It is also understood that yes, we do have high debt, but also if needed, the US can print dollars to pay that debt. Looking forward to 2026, there’s a very good chance that the dollar will stabilize as the economy improves. Foreign top trading partners have pledged to invest $5 trillion in the United States. With that large investment, more travel to the US, and people buying more US products such as cars that are now a better deal due to tariffs and a weaker dollar, come the end of the year, we could actually see a firmer dollar, a booming economy and perhaps further declines in gold and silver that are still near all times highs. I get excited, just writing about it, but it will require patience for investors as I do see this as a volatile year.    18% of US adults have taken GLP-1 drugs. What’s the concern? The price of GLP –1 drugs have come down and roughly 18% of adults in the US are using them. But there are other considerations outside of just weight loss. These drugs came out to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity not as a lifestyle change to lose 20 or 30 pounds. It is estimated that about half of people will stop taking the drug after one year and will probably be very disappointed with their future weight management. Studies have shown that when people stop taking the drug within about a year and a half, they regain most of the weight they lost. Studies also show that the weight gain comes four times faster than those who lost weight through normal dieting. While on these drugs, people see their blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose levels improved, but when they’re off the drug in a little over a year, those levels go back to where they were. Kevin Hall is a former senior investigator at the National Institute of Health and a specialist in nutrition. He says once you’re off the drugs, your appetite will be much higher than it was and you could end up overeating, which leads to taking in too many calories. Another study shows people who gain weight back and decide to go back on the medication that it’s not as successful the second or third time. People also don’t realize a thing called weight cycling or gaining and losing weight and how that can affect the percent of fat to muscle. It is estimated that when you lose weight about 25 to 30% of it is muscle. But the sad part is when you have the weight gain after you’re off the drugs, it is unfortunately more fat than muscle. So, as you can see, this is not a good cycle or a good plan for 10 to 20 years. If one thinks it is a good idea to just stay on these drugs for life, there are long-term risks such as gallbladder diseases, pancreatitis, and kidney damage. The kidney damage is one that would really worry me because as you get older and you have more pain you may want to take a pain reliever like Advil or ibuprofen, but doctors now look at people’s kidneys to see if they can handle Advil or ibuprofen, which is another strain on your kidneys. Being concerned with how you look and taking the easy way to look better by popping a pill or taking an injection may cause you to have regrets when you’re older.   Is the US housing market becoming a buyer's market? From 2020 to about 2022 it was definitely a seller's market and people could ask whatever they wanted for their home and if you didn’t take it, there would be 10 people behind you that would. Well now things are changing back to where buyers can negotiate and sometimes even get a price below the asking price. Nationwide, about 62% of homebuyers purchased their home under the listing price. The discount of 8% was also the largest since 2012. Buyers are also obtaining concessions from sellers which could be things like cash for closing costs or buying down the mortgage. As recently as December, there were 600,000 more sellers than buyers and that’s the biggest gap going back to 2013. What is helping the housing market is mortgage rates have declined a little bit, which has made homes somewhat more affordable for some buyers along with the cool-off in prices that we have seen. The best place to buy a home currently is Florida and Texas because new home construction has created a big supply of homes for sale. It can really depend on the local market you are looking at, but if you’re buying in West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, or Miami, about 85% of homebuyers paid under the original listing price. However, if you’re buying a home in Newark, New Jersey, San Francisco, or San Jose, only 39% received a discount from the original list price. It was also noted that those markets had a low amount of new construction. There could be more to come if the supply increases, and prices ease somewhat as it would likely bring more buyers back into the market. Depending on where you’re looking at buying, perhaps 2027 will be a great time to buy home.   Financial Planning: How Would an S&P 500 Portfolio Work in Retirement? Many investors nearing retirement feel comfortable staying fully invested in the S&P 500 because recent performance has been strong, but that confidence is often based on a short window of returns rather than the long reality of retirement. Retirement can last 20 to 30 years, and during that time markets will go through multiple corrections and bear markets. Once withdrawals begin, even modest withdrawal rates can amplify losses and deplete a portfolio. The late 1990s provide a clear example when the S&P 500 produced annual returns in the 20% to 30% range for several years in a row and many investors came to believe strong gains were easy and would continue… then 2000 came. Someone withdrawing an inflation-adjusted 4% from an S&P 500 portfolio in 2000 saw the account fall to roughly half its value within just three years, meaning a retiree at 62 with $1 million was left with barley $500k by 65. For those who stayed invested, after the Great Recession 9 years into retirement around age 71, the portfolio had lost close to 2/3rds of its original value.  At that point, the withdrawal rate needed to continue income was now 14%, up from the original 4%. Today the S&P 500 sits near all-time highs and trades at historically elevated forward earnings multiples, mirroring the late 90’s. While the index has delivered roughly 10% annual returns over the long term, those averages hide the danger of sequence of returns risk, where starting withdrawals before or during a downturn can permanently impair a portfolio and leave too little capital to fully recover even when markets eventually rebound.   Companies Discussed: Lennar Corporation (LEN), Sysco Corporation (SYY), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) & Visa Inc. (V)

    56 min

  4. JAN 31

    January 30th, 2026 | China’s population declining, History shows why we don’t overpay for hot stocks, Gold’s done well, silver has surged! Should you buy? Best Accounts for Kids and Grandkids & More

    China’s population is declining Last year's birth numbers for China recently came out and it was the lowest since 1949. What was the population of China in 1949? It was only around 540 million people so percentage wise it was a much higher birth rate than the 7.9 million we saw in 2025. With over 1.4 billion people and about 11 million people dying every year in China, it will take a long time to have results of a large declining population, but he problem with a lower birth rate than death rate is that it has major changes for an economy. China has a life expectancy of 79 years old. This means that the population is getting older, and there are fewer young people working to support the older generation that generally need more medical and social services. With an aging population, there’s generally less need for housing, schools, and businesses because older people have less need for these services which can grow an economy versus the cost of higher medical demand. China also has a problem with immigration as they have over 300,000 people more leaving versus coming in. You may be wondering how the United States stacks up? In 2025 we had 3.7 million babies born and 3.2 million deaths in the country. I was surprised to learn that the mortality age is under China’s at 78.4 years. With all the illegal immigration and the heightened status of what is going on with immigration in the United States, it is hard to come up with a concrete number. However, it is obvious that more people want to come to the United States than leave, which could help support a low birth rate. Another history lesson shows why we don’t overpay for hot stocks We know it's exciting to be in the next hot thing on Wall Street, but that was the same way people felt just a few years ago with hot software companies like Salesforce, Adobe and ServiceNow. Looking back, many of these once hot companies now have seen very disappointing five-year returns. As an example, Salesforce is only up around one percent over the last five years, and Adobe has actually fallen around 35% during that timeframe. The reason we won’t overpay for earnings on high flying companies is because many things can change like we have seen in the software industry. Software companies were supposed to benefit from AI, but now Anthropic's Claude code, which is an AI tool, says it can shrink the time it takes to build complex software. Also, new competition can come from startup companies that can slowly take away market share of the older companies a little bit at a time. Unfortunately, some of the software companies began to borrow substantial amounts of money and now have a highly leverage balance sheet, which could cause some problems in the future. In just the last 24 months, 13 software companies have defaulted on loans. I don’t think many of these big software companies will go out of business anytime soon, but I don’t believe their stock will run up to levels seen in the past anytime soon.   Gold has done well, but silver has surged! Should you buy it now? Silver is now up over 250% in the last year alone as it has become immensely popular with retail investors. Many investors are excited to point out that silver has a strong use case as an industrial metal. It’s a key component in electronics, including circuit boards, switches, and solar panels thanks to the fact that it’s an excellent conductor of electricity. Thanks to increasing demand for areas such electric vehicles and growing electricity needs, largely due to the AI push, industrial use cases now account for around 60% of demand. This compares to under 50% just a decade ago. I was also surprised to learn that silver may be subject to supply shortages as about ¾ of new silver is created as a byproduct of mining other metals like copper, zinc, and lead. This has led to silver demand outstripping supply every year since 2018. While all this sounds positive, generally markets have a way of reconfiguring the supply and demand equation. I believe this could lead to companies that have silver as an input cost will instead look for alternative sources as the price has become prohibitive after the recent surge. This would then hurt demand for silver. On the supply side since the economics of finding silver is strong at this time, you could see more mining for silver and the other metals, which would then increase the supply of silver. Declining demand and increasing supply would be problematic for the price of silver. Another way to look at the value of silver is the silver-to-gold ratio which tells you how many ounces of silver you need to buy one ounce of gold. The 50-year average is around 65, but today that ratio has fallen below 50. That is the lowest ratio in over a decade. Ultimately, your guess is as good as mine for where the top is for silver, but long term I don’t believe we will see strong results from this level. Don’t forget this is a volatile asset with other historical instances of massive rallies that were followed by large declines. We have talked about the Hunt Brothers’ attempt to corner the market in the 80s, but more recently there was a bubble that occurred in 2011. The price peaked at around $49 in April of that year but quickly tumbled about 25% in just a week and ultimately ended the year at $27 for a total decline of nearly 45% from the high.     Financial Planning: Best Accounts for Kids and Grandkids When saving for kids and grandkids, the “best” account depends on the tradeoff between tax benefits, flexibility, and control. 529 plans offer tax-free growth and withdrawals for qualified education expenses, but non-qualified withdrawals trigger federal and state taxes and penalties on earnings. Up to $35,000 can be rolled into a Roth IRA over time without federal taxes or penalties, though some states, including California, still impose taxes and penalties. Roth IRAs provide tax-free growth and tax- and penalty-free access to contributions at any age, but contributions require earned income, which many children do not have. Trump accounts function similarly to a retirement account. Funds generally cannot be accessed before age 18, and early withdrawal penalties apply until age 59½. Growth is tax-deferred, but earnings are taxed at ordinary income rates upon withdrawal, similar to a traditional IRA funded with after-tax contributions. Unlike other retirement accounts, contributions can be made before age 18 even without earned income, and funds may later be converted to a Roth IRA, though taxes would apply to earnings at conversion. Custodial accounts (UTMA/UGMA) do not offer tax-deferred growth but benefit from the kiddie tax rules. In most cases, the first $2,700 of long-term capital gains and qualified dividends are taxed at 0%, allowing smaller accounts to grow largely tax-free. However, assets must be turned over to the child at adulthood with no restrictions on use. Finally, taxable accounts in a parent’s or grandparent’s name offer maximum flexibility and control over timing and purpose of gifts, but investment earnings are taxable to the adult each year, though usually at the lower capital gain and dividend rates. Because of the control and simplicity, we often recommend taxable accounts as a core strategy, supplemented by other account types when specific needs justify them.   Companies Discussed: McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC), Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM), Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) & Pinterest, Inc. (PINS)

    56 min

  5. JAN 24

    January 23rd, 2026 | Looks like it is over for the Mag Seven stocks, Is using part of your 401(k) for a down payment on your home a good idea? AI Jobs, Invest Start Social Security Early & More

    Looks like it is over for the Mag Seven stocks The name Magnificent Seven came out in 2023 by a strategist from Bank of America named Michael Harnett. The idea is the name came from a classic western movie featuring seven heroic gunfighters and their push to save a small town. But just like other hot themes like the Nifty 50 back in the 60s and BRIC where you had to be invested in the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China, it looks like the Mag Seven glory days are over. In 2025, only two companies, Alphabet and Nvidia, outperformed the S&P 500. Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Tesla were no longer called stock market stars, and I believe this year will be another year of underperformance for most of these players. The Magnificent Seven still accounts for 36% of the S&P 500’s market cap, which is why I believe the S&P 500 will not have a great year in 2026. It will be hard for investors to give up these companies because as they look in the rearview mirror, they feel they're worth their value because they made very good returns in the past. However, just like the Nifty 50 and other hot investment themes throughout history, everything comes back to the mean. The question for many is what will be the next hot investment idea? No one knows for sure but I’m confident someone on Wall Street will come up with some exciting name for investors to chase and they'll tell them not worry about the fundamentals of the business.    Is using part of your 401(k) for a down payment on your home a good idea? The President is trying very hard to stimulate the housing market and allow younger people to buy their first home. One idea that has been tossed around is allowing people to use their 401(k) for a down payment. People can currently borrow from their 401(k) and I often hear uninformed people say it’s a great thing because you get to pay yourself the interest. Briefly, it is not a great idea because those "interest" payments don't account for the negative impact of the opportunity for what those funds could have grown at. You also don't get a tax deduction when paying the loan, and then you pay taxes on distributions at a later date, so it also has a negative tax impact. Outside of 401k loans, how’s the administration looking to help first time homebuyers? Kevin Hassett, who is director of the National Economic Council, threw out one possibility that a homeowner could put 10% of the equity of their home into a 401(k). That may make your 401(k) balance look artificially high because as the home grows in value so does that 10%. The problem I see is when it comes to retiring that 10% cannot provide retirement income. I still believe the best way to fix the affordability problem is to increase the supply of homes to match the demand, which would reduce prices. AI will create jobs that have not even been imagined yet There are jobs that are starting to be seen and developed as AI becomes more involved in business. One example is someone has to make sure that the systems are kept up-to-date and function properly. There’s also going to be people that have to understand the technology thoroughly and then translate the output, so managers, judges, regulators, or anyone else that is using it understands the answer. Experts will have to understand such things as self-driving vehicles and how the technology works. Say there is a car accident with two self-driving cars, who determines who’s at fault? There will need to be experts that understand the self-driving technology and then try to explain the situation. The AI system will have to be checked from time to time to verify that the AI system did not produce results that were unfairly skewed in one direction or the other. Once that is discovered, another expert would have to know how to fix and eliminate those problems using new data that helps eliminate the bias. Training is another area of opportunity. As people’s jobs change, they will need training in the new technology. The expert trainer would also use the technology to figure out what teaching style works best for the individual. Yes, the future is always scary because of the unknown, but innovation continues onward creating new opportunities and problems that need to be solved.     Financial Planning: Start Social Security Early to Invest? When evaluating when to start Social Security, there are generally two schools of thought. Either collect early at age 62 to invest the funds or wait until age 70 for a larger monthly benefit. Proponents of waiting argue that the age-70 benefit is roughly 77% higher than collecting at 62 and that deferring protects against longevity risk. Regular people and some financial advisors alike believe this is the superior strategy. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal takes this stance, stating that many retirees will live until age 85, so collecting at 70 increases guaranteed income and reduces market risk. However, the article illustrates its conclusion using an inflation-adjusted return assumption of –3% on invested funds. While technically possible, such an outcome is extremely unlikely over a 23-year period (ages 62 to 85), especially because the analysis applies returns to monthly payments over time rather than a lump sum, meaning the cash flows would benefit from dollar-cost averaging rather than suffer from sequence-of-returns risk. In reality, retirees who collect at 62 rarely invest the benefits directly; instead, they reduce withdrawals from an existing portfolio, preserving capital that can compound and generate additional income to offset the lower Social Security benefit. When the math is examined with multiple expected returns, a retiree is better off collecting at 62 if they live to age 78 assuming a 0% return, age 84 with a 5% return, age 94 with an 8% return, and any lifespan with a 10% return. Ultimately, the decision is less about maximizing guaranteed income and more about understanding expected returns, cash-flow dynamics, and the opportunity cost of delaying benefits.   Companies Discussed: Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), Citigroup Inc. (C), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) & GameStop Corp. (GME)

    56 min

  6. JAN 17

    January 16th, 2026 | Short-term interest rates to drop in 2026, Tariffs working - trade deficit at lowest level since 2009, 10% credit card interest caps? Auto Loan Interest Deduction Benefits & More

    There are many headwinds for short term interest rates to drop in 2026 It is no secret that the President wants our interest rates to drop dramatically to improve the economy, which as a sidenote is really not that bad. However, even though he gets to appoint a new Federal Reserve Chairman, that doesn’t guarantee lower short-term interest rates. The Federal Reserve Chairman's term ends May 15th, which means a new chairman will be appointed by the President. But the Chairman running the Federal Reserve, no matter who they are, does not make a sole decision on interest rates.  It is done as a vote from all members, and it takes a majority of the 7 members to move interest rates up or down. Other factors include Mr. Powell can stay until January 2028, when his term as governor expires. This means a new governor who is in favor of reduce interest rates cannot be appointed until January 2028. There will also be changes to other members come January 31st when there are term expirations. This will be another opportunity to appoint members that are aggressive on reducing interest rates. Also, sometime this month, the Supreme Court will rule on removing or keeping Governor Lisa Cook over legal issues. If she is removed, that’s another opportunity to bring in someone aggressive on lowering rates. At the January meeting, there will be a rotation for the voting Regional Bank Presidents, which will include New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Dallas and Minneapolis. Some of these new voting bank presidents have explained their concerns when it comes to lowering rates, especially with the inflation target of 2% still not achieved. Speaking of that 2% inflation target, that was set back in 2012, and it’s been above 2% since March 2021. All this to say, the direction of interest rates is uncertain. If we were to see unemployment rise and more signs of slowing in the economy, we probably would see more interest rate cuts. However, if things stay status quo, I still stand behind the fact the most we will see is probably two interest rate cuts in 2026.   The tariffs seem to be working with the October trade deficit at the lowest level since 2009 The October trade deficit was only $29.4 billion, which is far better than the expected deficit of $58.4 billion. Not only was it almost half the expected amount; but it was also the lowest deficit going back 16 years to 2009. The low trade deficit was due to imports falling to $331.4 billion, but exports also increased to $302 billion. Exports benefited from the high price of gold, silver and other metals as that increased exports by $10 billion during October. The big benefit on the reduction of imports came from pharmaceuticals dropping sharply probably because in late September the administration threatened 100% tariffs on overseas pharmaceuticals. The drug makers were apparently scrambling on what to do and trying to minimize the impact going forward. The Supreme Court will not make the decision on whether the tariffs are legal or not just because they are working; they will determine if the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers act to impose tariffs is legal or not. My hope is that they do agree with it, and if not, hopefully the administration can come up with some other way of keeping the tariffs in tack as they seem to be working very well.   Is the 10% credit card interest cap a good idea? At first glance, the average person is going to say yes that is great because current credit card rates around 23 to 24% are ridiculous. However, when you dig deeper into credit cards and how they work, people have to realize the risks for defaults and late payments are rather high. Banks that issue credit cards are in business to make a profit for their shareholders and if there’s no profit to be earned, then there’s no point in a business offering that service. The current default rate on credit cards is about 3%, which means banks have to write off the entire balance of whatever that person owed. The higher default rates are seen in ZIP Codes with lower incomes and also for younger borrows who got in over their head. If the 10% cap on credit cards does go through, it will hurt people with lower incomes and those that have lower credit scores because banks would no longer be able to be profitable on those accounts, and they would stop offering credit to them. It would also affect many across-the-board as you could see a reduction if not elimination of points and cash rewards on credit cards, which would be disappointing for many. In my opinion, it is better to have the higher interest rate on credit cards like we have today, as it broadens the pool of people that can access this tool. Unfortunately, people need to use some self-discipline to not get in over their head and make sure they can pay their payments and hopefully not carry a balance on the card. If they can do that, they pay no interest and also can benefit from cash-back and other reward programs.   Financial Planning: Who Benefits from the New Auto Loan Interest Deduction? The new auto loan interest deduction created by the July 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill” allows taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 per year of interest paid on a qualified auto loan during tax years 2025 through 2028.  This is an above-the-line deduction, meaning it is available even if the standard deduction is taken. To qualify, the loan must be an auto loan for a new vehicle that had final assembly in the United States purchased in 2025 through 2028. Leases, personal loans, and cars purchased before 2025 do not qualify. The deduction is subject to income phase-outs, beginning at $100,000 for single filers and $200,000 for married couples, and fully phasing out at $150,000 for single filers and $250,000 for married couples.  Most states, including California, do not conform to this federal deduction, meaning it won’t reduce state income tax. However California lawmakers have proposed a separate state deduction (AB 490), but it has not become law.  For people who receive the deduction, the actual tax savings will likely range from a hundred to a thousand dollars because most auto loans don’t have anywhere near $10,000 of annual interest and only taxpayers in the 10%, 12%, and 22% bracket will qualify.   Companies Discussed: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), Walmart Inc. (WMT), Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) & The Boeing Company (BA)

    56 min

  7. JAN 10

    January 9th, 2026 | Recent changes in Venezuela means for consumers, new year, new investment advisor? Labor market ends on a soft note, Mortgage-Backed Security Purchase Lowers Mortgage Rates & More

    What the recent changes in Venezuela means for consumers Without getting into the benefits of less drugs coming into our country, there are economic benefits from the large amount of oil reserves that are in the ground of Venezuela. The current daily consumption worldwide of oil is about 100 million barrels per day. Venezuela has in their ground over 300 billion barrels of oil. That alone would keep the world supplied for over eight years. Venezuela has the highest proven reserves in the world even above Saudi Arabia. Venezuela accounts for about 20% of the world supply of oil. Venezuela has four times the reserves compared to the US, yet in 2024 the United States produced over 13 million barrels per day compared to Venezuela producing under 1 million barrels per day. There is talk that the big oil companies could be going into Venezuela and they could definitely increase that production by a large amount, which would benefit not just Venezuela but also the world markets and the United States consumer. The way the United States consumer would benefit is from lower gas prices at the pump and with oil currently trading in the high 50s, we could see that drop to the low 50s maybe even a little bit below that. This will not only put more money in US consumers' pockets, but it would also help the Venezuela population as the production of oil would create many good paying jobs and could lead to a ripple effect for other businesses with more money coming into their economy. The recent events occurred just a few days ago and a lot has yet to be played out, but make no mistake there are many benefits if Venezuela can produce a lot more oil for the world.   It’s a new year, is it time to hire or change to a new investment advisor? With the new year, investors should take a look to see how their investments have done and how their investment advisor has been working with them. The beginning of the year is a fresh start, so it’s time to see what your percentage return was on your portfolio in 2025 and evaluate if your advisor kept you updated and gave you the customer service you need like returning your phone calls in a reasonable timeframe. You don’t want to jump from the pan into the fire, so when you’re looking for a new investment advisor, be sure that the company and the advisor are full fiduciaries, which means they must do what is best for you, not what is best for themselves. Ask yourself the question, is the advisor trying to sell me products that he or she makes a big commission off of? That could be a red flag that they don’t have your best interest in mind. It's also important to understand the investment strategy the firm and the advisor use. Do they use mutual funds or build your own portfolio with individual equities and investments that are liquid and don’t tie your money up for years to come in case the investment underperforms. I always believe it is worth asking the advisor how they manage their own personal portfolio. If it’s good enough for them, why is it not good enough for you? I know some advisors will say they have different objectives, but I think everyone has the same objective of making a reasonable return on their investments. And lastly, don’t be afraid to ask how they get paid when managing your investments. It may seem like an uncomfortable question, but if it’s an excessive amount, that can be a red flag. If the advisor is trying to dodge the question, that means to me, they’re trying to hide something from you at the very beginning, and you should runaway immediately. Take your time to find the right advisor, if you feel pressure from constant phone calls and high sales tactics, you probably want to look for someone else to work with on your investments.   The labor market ends the year on a soft note This jobs report was special considering it was the first on time report in 3 months, but I'd say the data was lackluster. Nonfarm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, which was short of the estimate of 76,000. The two prior months also saw downward revisions that totaled 76,000. For the full year, payroll employment grew by 584,000, which equates to a monthly average of about 49,000 new jobs per month. This was less than 2024's gain of 2 million jobs or about 168,000 per month and actually registers as the worst payroll growth outside of a recession since 2003. While this all might sound troubling, it is important to remember that changes to government jobs had a large impact on the data. Since reaching a peak in January, government employment fell by 277,000 jobs. This obviously created a huge headwind for headline payroll growth. With that said, the labor market was still in a slower growth environment, and I continue to believe that will be the case as we move forward considering the unemployment rate still remains healthy at 4.4%. It's also important to remember that of those counted as unemployed, about 26% or 1.9 million people are considered long-term unemployed as they have been jobless for 27 weeks or more. I always do wonder how actively these people are looking for jobs. In terms of areas of strength in the report, both healthcare and foodservices and drinking places remained healthy. Health care employment was up 21,000 in the month and for the full year averaged monthly gains of 34,000. This was down from 2024's monthly average of 56,000, but still strong. Foodservices and drinking places saw employment grow by 27,000 jobs in the month and for the full year averaged monthly gains of 12,000 jobs, which was similar to 2024's average of 11,000 jobs added per month. Retail trade was the real headwind for the month as employment declined by 25,000 jobs. This could be due to seasonal changes, but it was interesting to see retail trade employment showed little net change in both 2024 and 2025. The other major industries in the report showed little to no changes in the month. Overall, I believe this continues to show that we remain in a slow hire/low fire labor environment and I don't see much evidence that will change this year.    Financial Planning: Mortgage-Backed Security Purchase Lowers Mortgage Rates The U.S. government’s announcement of a $200 billion purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is already pushing 30-year mortgage rates below 6%, creating an opportunity for homeowners and prospective buyers. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates and also purchased MBS, which helped push mortgage rates down.  Mortgage rates are not directly tied to the Federal Reserve interest rates, but the purchase of mortgage-backed securities is something that would directly lower mortgage rates. This is because investors purchase mortgages after origination for the interest income paid by homeowners, so Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buying these securities increases demand which lowers the interest rates borrowers get on mortgages. For those with higher mortgage rates, this could be an opportunity to cut that down.  I don’t think we are yet at a point where it makes sense to buy down the rates further, but there is no limit to the number of refinances someone can do.   It may be best to refinance now and then again in another year or so.   Companies Discussed: Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) & Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

    56 min

  8. 12/31/2025

    December 31st, 2025 | Financial Outlook on 2026, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC), NIKE, Inc. (NKE), Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Lennar Corporation (LEN)

    Financial Outlook for 2026 Companies Discussed: Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC), NIKE, Inc. (NKE), Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Lennar Corporation (LEN)

    56 min
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Smart Investing is the radio show where Brent and Chase try to make investing easier to understand. They demonstrate long-term investment strategies to help you find good value investments.

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