The Commercial Real Estate Investor Podcast

Tyler Cauble
  • 4.9 (47)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

Welcome to The Commercial Real Estate Investor Podcast where your host, Tyler Cauble, covers the ins and outs building wealth and passive income through investing in commercial real estate. Tune in for investing strategies, leasing & management tips, market updates, and more.

  1. 2D AGO

    Will Retail Outperform Flex in 2026? | Office Hours

    Key Takeaways: Why Retail Looks Attractive for 2026 Retail is poised to outperform, especially vs. flex/industrial, due to: Very low new development (only ~30M sq ft projected in 2026, ~70% single-tenant). Steady demand and low vacancies (around 5% vacancy, which aligns with typical underwriting assumptions). The U.S. is overbuilt on retail overall, but the type of new retail has shifted: Less big-box expansion. More mixed-use and smaller retail footprints. Investor sentiment is bullish: Cap rates have stabilized. Transaction volume is above pre-pandemic levels. Example: A Blackstone affiliate bought a $432M grocery-anchored portfolio, signaling strong conviction in retail. Retail’s Fundamentals & Evolution E-commerce and Amazon did not kill physical retail, but forced: Some brands to adapt (e.g., Best Buy). Others to disappear (e.g., Circuit City). Successful retail is becoming more experiential: People still want to touch/try/see products in person. In-person shopping often beats the friction of returns from online purchases. Neighborhood Strip Centers: The Sweet Spot Unanchored / neighborhood strip centers (10k–50k sq ft) are increasingly attractive: High occupancy, steady rent growth, strong investor interest. Adaptive tenant mix and easier to manage turnover. Tyler’s own portfolio of neighborhood retail: Collected ~92–93% of rents during the pandemic by working flexibly with tenants. Demonstrates resilience of well-located neighborhood retail. Market Data & Tenants to Watch Store openings (ex‑restaurants) projected to grow 1.4% in 2026. Restaurant openings projected to grow 1.8%. Tenants/brands to watch: H‑E‑B, Michaels, Walmart, Dillard’s, Pop Mart, 7 Brew, Dave’s Hot Chicken, HomeGoods, EOS Fitness, Chuck E. Cheese. Markets to watch (for retail strength and rent growth): Salt Lake City, Reno (NV), Indianapolis, Raleigh–Durham, Tampa–St. Pete. Forecast average rent growth ~1.5%, but value‑add deals can outperform this via: Under-market rents. Older centers with room for modernization and repositioning. How Tyler Analyzes a Retail Deal (Key Lessons) Using a Walmart shadow‑anchored strip center near Hopkinsville (~32.6k sq ft, asking $5.613M, ~7–9% cap depending on inputs): Quick back-of-the-napkin test: Purchase price per sq ft × 10% ≈ rent per sq ft needed for a 10% cap. At $171/sq ft, that’s ~$17/sq ft NNN. Financials from the OM: Gross income ≈ $19.41/sq ft. NOI ≈ $15.47/sq ft → roughly $4/sq ft in expenses. Mix of NNN and gross/modified gross leases → value‑add by converting more to NNN. Modeling assumptions & challenges: Various scenarios on LTV (70–75%), interest rate (~6–6.5%), and rent bumps (1–5%/yr). With current pricing and debt costs, IRR initially comes out too low vs. a 15% target. To hit target returns, you either need: Lower purchase price, or Stronger rent growth / re‑leasing at higher rates, or Some combination of both. But: Even at today’s terms, the deal can cash flow reasonably: Around 6–7% cash‑on‑cash in year one at higher equity (e.g., 50% down). Debt service coverage can be acceptable (~1.2x+) at some leverage levels. With modest rent increases (e.g., ~$1/sq ft more), the value jump can be large when capitalized at market cap rates. Practical Investing Takeaways Retail vs. Flex: Flex is “easy” and forgiving for beginners. Retail is more nuanced (demographics, visibility, traffic counts, parking). But if you buy existing, stabilized centers, much of that risk has already been “tested by the market.” Follow the big players: Watch where Chick‑fil‑A, Starbucks, major grocers, and big PE firms (e.g., Blackstone) are putting money. They’ve already paid for the best data and analysis—you can ride their coattails. Value-add retail playbook: Target existing strip centers, especially near strong anchors (or shadow‑anchored). Look for: Under‑market rents. Non‑NNN leases you can convert. Short‑term leases you can roll to higher rates. Small rent bumps across multiple tenants can dramatically increase property value. Tyler’s Projects & Next Steps Salt Ranch boutique hotel in Nashville: Opening planned for April 1, 2026. He’s currently working through fire inspections and final permits. He’s written a six‑part blog series documenting the entire Salt Ranch journey (finding the deal, vendors, mistakes, etc.). Office Hours: He’ll be live again next Tuesday, 8:30am Central, for Q&A on deals, breaking into CRE, and strategy.

    30 min

  2. 5D AGO

    You're Broke Because You Chase Cashflow

    Key Takeaways: Cash flow vs. value-add strategy Relying on small monthly cash flow from rentals takes too long to replace a W2 income. Tyler advocates focusing first on value-add and forced appreciation (creating big equity pops) rather than slow cash flow. Example: Chattanooga office building Bought for $1.8M, spent about $600K on soft costs and some work. Sold off-market for $4.6M in ~18 months, making roughly $2.2M. That profit was equivalent to about 7 years (84 months) of cash flow in one deal. Example: Small East Nashville retail deal Bought for $435K; 2,200 sq ft single-tenant retail. Before closing, they secured a lease, which raised the appraised value to about $650K. Sold for ~$625K, making close to $200K over 3 years. The main value-add was simply getting a tenant and a lease, not major renovations. At ~$2K/month net cash flow, it would have taken about 100 months (~8+ years) to make the same $200K from cash flow. Role of taxes and 1031 exchanges Concerns about capital gains tax are addressed by using a 1031 exchange to defer taxes. Even when paying capital gains, the time value of money means big lump-sum gains now can still beat years of cash flow. Starting with little or no capital Tyler began as a commercial real estate broker, rolling his commissions as equity into deals (minimal cash out of pocket). Repeating value-add deals built up his capital base to where he could now sell everything and live off net-lease cash flow (e.g., Walgreens, Starbucks). Transition: value-add first, then cash flow The strategy is: Use value-add deals to rapidly grow your capital base. Later, shift that capital into stable, cash-flowing assets (e.g., low cap rate, credit-tenant deals). Example: Buy dirt for $618K, rezone, sell for about $1.575M, then 1031 into income-producing property and fund a self-storage project projected to net $15K/month. Why commercial over residential In residential, value is mostly property + land; leases don’t dramatically move value. In commercial, value is tied to income and leases (like buying a business at a multiple of EBITDA). This makes it possible to “create” equity by: Signing or improving leases Repositioning or rezoning These levers don’t really exist in the same way in typical residential investing. Target audience and action step Strategy is best for those starting with $0–$100K, not for people who already have ~$10M in cash (who can go straight into cash-flow investments). Tyler promotes his CRE Accelerator mastermind where he teaches how to: Find value-add commercial deals Fund them Close and execute the business plan.

    8 min

  3. MAR 12

    Why Underwriting is SO Important | Office Hours

    Key Takeaways: 1. Underwriting tells you if a deal actually worksA property may look attractive on the surface, but underwriting reveals the true performance by analyzing financing, rent, expenses, and exit assumptions. 2. Small changes in assumptions can change the entire investmentAdjusting factors like purchase price, loan terms, or exit cap rates can significantly impact returns such as cash flow, IRR, and equity multiple. 3. Understanding the “why” behind the numbers is criticalIt is not just about plugging numbers into a spreadsheet. Knowing what each input represents helps you identify which levers you can adjust to make a deal work. 4. Strong underwriting builds credibility with lenders and investorsWhen you clearly present the numbers, risks, and projected performance, it shows you have done the work and understand the investment. 5. It helps you compare opportunities the right wayUnderwriting allows you to evaluate real estate against other investments by factoring in cash flow, loan paydown, tax benefits, and long term value. 6. The more deals you analyze, the better your judgment becomesConsistently underwriting deals helps you quickly recognize whether an opportunity fits your strategy and return goals.

    36 min

  4. MAR 5

    Stop Writing Offers Like a Residential Investor - Do This Instead | Office Hours

    Key Takeaways: LOIs are non-binding but criticalThey set the main business terms (price, timing, responsibilities) before you spend money on attorneys and full contracts. You must clearly state “non-binding”Put non-binding language in multiple places, plus a paragraph saying it is only a basis for preparing a formal contract. Use “and/or affiliated assigns” for the buyerThis lets you assign the contract to a new entity later and helps manage liability without having to rewrite the deal. Due diligence is your escape hatchDuring the DD period, you can terminate for almost any reason and get your earnest money back; after DD, you usually can still walk but lose the deposit. Commercial deals are priced on income and riskYou rely on NOI, actual financials, and realistic rent/expense assumptions, not “price per door” or emotional comps. Landlord–tenant responsibilities must be explicitSpell out who handles roof, structure, HVAC, TIs, fees tied to the tenant’s specific use, and how much the tenant’s costs are capped, to avoid ugly surprises later.

    51 min

  5. MAR 2

    Most developers go broke before they ever break ground with Meg Epstein

    Key Takeaways: Became a developer in crisis: Meg started as a high‑end residential project manager and was forced to become a developer when a partner burned through about $1M on unfeasible plans; she took over to protect investors. Sees value others miss: She identified under‑loved Nashville locations (riverfront, Gulch‑adjacent) early and was willing to buy where locals thought she was “overpaying,” which later proved very successful. Capital without a rich network: With no wealthy friends/family, she raised ~$5–6M for her first deal by cold‑calling and using CCIM directories and BiggerPockets—showing the importance of research, persistence, and real phone calls. Sunk costs and pivots: Scrapping expensive concrete plans, switching to cheaper stick‑over‑podium, cutting ~25% of the budget, and waiving her own developer fee turned a near‑disaster into a profitable condo project. Cycles and business model shift: The frothy early‑2022 boom (big flips, many employees) was followed by a painful downturn when rates spiked and equity dried up. That pushed her toward leaner teams, fewer project types, and more long‑term, cash‑flowing/hold strategies. Niching and design differentiation: Her “big unlock” is focusing on niches (short‑term‑rentable condos/flexible living, select industrial) and distinct but cost‑disciplined design (landscaping, thoughtful finishes, no trendy white‑box commodity). Leadership lessons: The hardest part was people and overhead, not buildings—layoffs, departures, and restructuring. Out of that came a small, high‑caliber, focused team model. Current focus – Modernist: She’s now doubling down on flexible living condos (Modernist) that owners can use personally and also rent out for income—an institutional version of how she once Airbnb’d her own apartment to fund her start

    38 min

  6. FEB 26

    Backing Into an Offer Price on Vacant Commercial Property | Office Hours

    Key Takeaways: Vacant properties still have value – you must underwrite future income and back into what you can pay today; don’t let brokers sell you tomorrow’s value at today’s price. Start with market rent per square foot – use similar properties, OM data, LoopNet/Crexi, and broker conversations to estimate realistic market rent, then compute gross income and NOI (after vacancy and operating expenses). Use NOI and a market cap rate to get stabilized value – value = NOI ÷ cap rate; track offering memorandums in your market to understand realistic cap rates for different asset types and conditions. Build in margins for risk and returns – target a required equity multiple (Tyler uses 2x over 5 years) and make sure your maximum allowable offer (MAO) leaves room for both value creation and investor returns. Two main MAO approaches – (a) pay no more than ~75–80% of stabilized value all-in, or (b) start from stabilized value and subtract required profit, capex, TI, lease-up commissions, and carry costs to get your max purchase price. Don’t ignore non‑purchase cash costs – beyond the down payment you must plan for closing costs, tenant improvements, leasing commissions, construction/renovation, and carry costs during vacancy; these can easily push your true “all-in” basis much higher.

    39 min

  7. FEB 19

    Stop Investing in Real Estate for Cash Flow - Do This Instead | Office Hours

    Key Takeaways: It is rarely the market. Most investors struggle because they look at everything instead of defining what they actually want. Asset type, size, location, zoning, cap rate targets, tenant profile, and condition. The more specific you are, the more seriously brokers will take you. A strong investor knows what they will not buy. If a deal hits a hard stop, walk away. There will always be another opportunity. The goal is to shrink thousands of potential properties down to a focused list you can actively pursue. Use simple back-of-napkin numbers to determine if rents and cap rates can realistically support your return targets. If it fails the quick test, move on. You only need to fully analyze a handful each year. A strong filter helps you cut 100 opportunities down to the 1 to 5 that actually deserve your time. When you present brokers with a clear Buy Box, you look like a closer, not a tire kicker. That alone increases the quality of deals you receive.

    27 min

  8. FEB 16

    You Think Apartments Are a Safe Investment?

    Key Takeaways: Multifamily Isn’t “Safe” Anymore The old playbook—buy, renovate, raise rents, refinance—worked when you had margin. Today’s compressed cap rates and higher debt costs leave almost no room for error. When everything has to go right, that’s not safety. Competition Changed the Game Institutional and out-of-state capital flooded major markets. Local operators who once competed with familiar players suddenly faced groups willing to pay far more—and accept thinner returns. COVID Exposed the Fragility Eviction restrictions and drops in economic occupancy crushed cash flow. When 20–30% of tenants aren’t paying, the model breaks. Debt coverage becomes the priority, not growth. Expenses Are the Silent Killer Insurance and property taxes have skyrocketed. Even strong operators can’t out-operate doubling insurance premiums and massive tax increases. Timing Matters More Than Ego Josh exited residential in 2018, before the cracks became obvious. Capturing 4x–7x returns and redeploying capital was a strategic move—not an emotional one. Commercial Offers Control and Predictability Fewer tenants. Longer leases. Less day-to-day “firefighting.” In many smaller commercial deals, there’s less competition and more ability to plan long-term capital expenses.

    14 min
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4.9
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About

Welcome to The Commercial Real Estate Investor Podcast where your host, Tyler Cauble, covers the ins and outs building wealth and passive income through investing in commercial real estate. Tune in for investing strategies, leasing & management tips, market updates, and more.

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