The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche
  • 4.6 (81)
  • Investing
  • Updated Semiweekly

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

  1. 1d ago

    #377 Ted Oakley: We're Toward The End, Late Stage Market, Lemmings Everywhere

    In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, warns the market is exhibiting all the markings of late stage using a Warren Buffett 1999 quote: "when you get to the point where every single thing that people do, any kind of strategy is up in the market...you're probably toward the end." He describes it as a "lemmings market" where followers are piling in, notes IPOs are bursting (90% lose money over 135 years), and reveals the Mag 7 is mostly down since November with only semiconductors rallying. Oakley warns baby boomers are "brain dead" and way over-invested in stocks at historic highs as a percentage of assets—if a bear market hits like 2000-2003 (down 55%), they lack the liquidity to sustain their lifestyle during down years. He's adding back gold after it corrected from $5,500 to $4,000, buying copper and natural gas as plays on AI infrastructure needs, and positioning for a commodity supercycle in early innings driven by countries hoarding raw materials. Oakley reveals energy is "dramatically cheap" with 6-8% dividends, oil reserves are depleted, and he's building a "well to the end" strategy with producers and pipelines that "can't be replaced"—like railroads. He explains gold is becoming the new currency reserve as countries dump treasuries for gold, warns private credit is a blowup risk at 11.75% rates, and emphasizes that for SpaceX windfall employees, they should take money off the table and ice enough for life. His parting advice: stick with your principles and don't let the hype throw you off. Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 0:00 Opening and introduction 1:23 Market assessment 2:40 IPOs 3:49 Late stage market indicators 7:14 Added back gold after trimming early year, mining stocks down 30% 8:05 Copper and natural gas needed for AI infrastructure 8:25 Companies on fundamentals, not macro chasing 11:16 Next 10 years commodity-based market 12:51 Commodity supercycle early innings 18:54 Energy thesis 21:47 Gold thesis - Currency reserve replacing treasuries 28:30 Bifurcated economy 29:18 Baby boomers way overinvested 32:30 Everybody's in market more than any time 37:25 Biggest risk - Government nobody believes in 39:53 Private credit issue 42:24 SpaceX windfall employees - Take some off table 44:07 Parting thoughts - Stick with your principles

    45 min

  2. Jun 6

    #376 Chris Whalen: The Markets Know There's A Problem, Trump Admin Doesn't, Rationing Ahead

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals an "explosive" John Dizard interview dropping next week on rationing of synthetic lubricants for turbines and hybrid cars before the midterms, while the Trump administration stays blind to the supply crisis from destroyed Persian Gulf refineries. Markets are already processing the damage, but the Trump admin lacks the organization to prepare Americans for coming energy rationing and diesel shortages. Whalen argues the Fed is "powerless" against external war-driven shocks, yet double-digit inflation is "locked in" for certain categories. He's taking profits on AI stocks (AMD, ARM) after 150-200% gains, bought back into Chevron, and declares Bitcoin "toast" as the crypto bubble bursts. He warns communities blocking data center projects will become "very significant negatives" for AI, and describes the current market as "manic"—driven purely by Fed Covid cash into AI stocks as people chase shiny objects rather than value.   Monetary-Metals.com/julia Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira852 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome 01:00 Markets this week - Tech hit hard, gold erased gains, Bitcoin crushed 4:02 John Dizard interview - Rationing synthetic lubricants before midterms 5:30 Trump admin blind to crisis, needs WWII-level mobilization 7:58 Suppliers already rationing, July/August shortages pronounced 10:41 Double-digit inflation locked in, Fed powerless against external shocks 11:58 Taking profits on AI - Sold AMD, ARM, back into Chevron 13:19 Fed doesn't understand financial markets or mortgage servicing 14:40 Bond spreads tight - Scarcity of quality assets 17:28 Bill Pulte as Acting Director of National Intelligence - Political payback 20:20 Trump shoots from hip, alienating Republicans, can't get anything done 21:02 Kevin Warsh quote - 3% inflation destroys economies 22:10 Gold erased 2026 gains - Higher rates, Bitcoin collapse 23:48 Bitcoin toast - BlackRock selling, crypto bubble burst 25:19 Manic market not driven by value, chasing AI 26:00 Communities blocking data center projects - Politics killing AI 27:07 Bubble driven by Fed Covid cash flood 28:43 Parting thoughts - Fishing in Maine, Dizard interview next week

    30 min

  3. Jun 2

    #375 Howell: Liquidity Slowing, Speculation Phase Ending, Why A Fed Hike Might Be Coming

    Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-studio episode. In this episode, Howell reveals money is flowing out of financial markets into the real economy, marking the end of Wall Street's era and the beginning of Main Street's turn. He warns the market is in a "speculation phase" with low quality returns built on narrow foundations—only AI and semiconductors are racing while most securities stagnate—and the next phase will be "turbulence" as liquidity slows and the bearish flattening yield curve continues. Howell details how the system has monetized with the Treasury refinancing $600 billion per week in short-term bills, notes there is "unquestionably way too much debt," and makes the contrarian call that the Fed will raise rates in the next 12 months because the economy is too strong at 7-8% nominal GDP growth. He positions commodities and energy as the place to be, argues gold is a hedge against monetary inflation (not CPI), and suggests the gold-oil ratio could imply oil prices of $200 per barrel. Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:  Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercap Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392902 0:00 Opening - Money leaving financial markets for real economy 1:29 Speculation phase - Low quality returns on narrow foundations 6:49 Liquidity rolling over - Rate of change critical 7:38 Money flowing from financial sector to real economy 13:23 Debt refinancing phenomenon - 4 out of 5 transactions 15:25 Way too much debt, only monetization is the way out 16:40 China monetizing like Japan did with Abenomics 19:32 US monetization already happening - $600B weekly debt refinancing 24:28 MOVE index suppressed through treasury buybacks 30:12 Kevin Warsh expectations for new Fed chair 32:01 Inflation no longer transitory - Now illusionary 35:48 Monetary inflation hurdle 7-8% per year 37:26 What to own - Diversified into commodities, energy, gold 40:10 Gold-oil ratio could mean oil $200 per barrel 40:50 Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months 43:15 Find him at Capital Wars Substack

    44 min

  4. May 30

    #374 Chris Whalen: Fed Policy Losing Efficacy, Rate Hike Coming Anyway, Private Credit Defaults at 6%

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals bank incomes are up but the real story is the trading side of the house driving earnings, not lending, as deposits grow faster than assets forcing banks into trading operations. He warns private credit default rates have hit a record 6%, nearly 10 times worse than bank default rates, signaling the end of the credit cycle as non-banks now lead lending. Whalen predicts double-digit inflation remains likely, expects QE5 to come despite Warsh's denials since the Fed balance sheet must grow proportionally with federal debt, and argues Fed policy is losing efficacy against external war-driven inflation that raising rates won't fix. He discusses massive housing consolidation and M&A deals coming as mortgage lenders face crushing higher rates, details how private equity is rolling up every service provider imaginable (plumbers, electricians, dentists, oncologists) and "screwing them up terribly," warns TIPS aren't reflecting true inflation, and predicts major housing lender mergers between now and year end. Whalen maintains his thesis that the Fed doesn't control long-term rates and that shrinking the balance sheet would be more effective than raising the Fed funds rate, argues the AI momentum trade is crowded and silly, and expects no action from the Fed in June but potential rate hike language removal from statements.   Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817 Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Bank Income Up, Stocks Sideways 01:00 Banks recap 5:06 Private credit default rate record 6% - 10x worse than banks 6:14 Who's most exposed to private credit losses? 7:36 Reversal in low rate environment impact 9:39 Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet strategy 10:01 Double-digit inflation still likely? 10:40 What were worst impacts of QE? 11:00 Housing was the headline impact of QE 12:43 Fed housing subsidy went outside their mandate 12:51 Fed is progressive institution out of control 13:49 We may be closer to QE5 than Bessent knows 15:05 Fed balance sheet must grow with federal debt 16:04 New leadership - what about Fed funds rate? 16:18 Potential for cut or hike? 18:06 Base case still stagflation? 20:12 Private equity excess cash looking for yield 22:10 Politics of housing affordability daunting 23:35 Viewer questions - TIPS 24:26 Municipal bond default risk 26:24 Why higher inflation won't drive down gold 28:42 AI craziness - momentum market 29:31 Trump wanted cuts but prospects disappearing 29:54 June FOMC - don't expect action 31:20 Fed balance sheet more important than Fed funds rate 33:11 Next week - bank report Monday

    37 min

  5. May 23

    #373 Chris Whalen: Why We Could See Double-Digit Inflation, Rationing, & Fed Hikes

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down how the Iran war situation is sinking GOP hopes for the midterms as he predicts double-digit inflation by year end driven by critical petroleum product shortages, with John Dizard warning rationing is coming to the United States for intensive products like gas turbine lubricants. Whalen explains the Fed will be forced to hike rates as early as July according to Diane Swonk, representing a dramatic shift from rate cut expectations just weeks ago, though raising rates won't help with external war-driven inflation and politics will eventually force cuts if the economy slows. He reveals real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for 15 years of dollar purchasing power loss, discusses how the politics of affordability will reshape the landscape with Republicans at risk of losing both House and Senate, and maintains his long gold position as inflation hedge while viewing silver as a commercial play on technology demand. Whalen details Kevin Warsh's strategy to shrink the Fed balance sheet while credibly cutting short-term rates by forcing markets to absorb more duration, explains why the 1970s stock market stagnation differs from today due to demographics and higher stock ownership, predicts Social Security will eventually be means-tested as the math has reversed from 10 workers per retiree to the opposite, and argues passive investment mechanisms killed crypto with Wall Street ETFs now controlling price action.   Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817 Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Inflation sinks GOP, private credit drama 0:37 Fed will have to get in front of inflation now 1:35 Iran situation sinking GOP hopes for midterms 2:21 Rationing coming to the United States - John Dizard prediction 3:21 Could hit double-digit inflation by year end 3:51 Walk through the double-digit inflation thesis 5:58 Real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for inflation 7:00 Knock-on effects of double-digit inflation 7:23 Politics of affordability will reshape US landscape 8:01 Republicans in danger of losing House and Senate 8:45 Diane Swonk thinks rate hike as early as July 9:01 How big of a shift is this in Fed's thinking? 9:53 Last time asset holders benefited - Will it be different this time? 11:49 Gold and silver behaving differently lately 13:09 Long gold as inflation hedge, silver as commercial play 14:01 Kevin Warsh could shrink Fed balance sheet while cutting short rates 17:39 Viewer mail - Inflation scenario with liquidity trap 20:11 Viewer question on Annaly dividend 22:11 1970s inflation vs today - Why stocks didn't make new highs then 24:05 Blue state housing policies debate 27:06 Social Security funding crisis - Means testing coming? 28:36 Third rail of American politics 28:49 Stablecoin reserve status question 31:02 Chris's parting thoughts - Significant change in narratives 33:03 Closing thoughts

    34 min

  6. May 21

    #372 Ted Oakley: Why Energy Could Surge Like Gold Did Last Year, and Most Investors Don't Own Enough

    In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss the stark disconnect between Wall Street momentum and the collapsing consumer, revealing credit card and auto loan delinquencies are now at Great Financial Crisis levels while the economy has shifted from K-shaped to "i-shaped" with only a tiny dot at the top. He explains his letter "The Gambler" addresses how younger investors have abandoned real investing for a betting culture of sports gambling, one-day options, and Bitcoin, while most advisors no longer know when to "hold 'em or fold 'em." Ted maintains 50% cash in short-term treasuries, predicts inflation will hit 4.25% in May rising to 4.75% by fall with financial repression as the only way out of the debt trap, and reveals energy is his largest position up 35% year-to-date despite being only 3% of the S&P (it was 33% in 1980). He expects energy to rip like gold and silver did last year since nobody owns it yet, outlines his "well to the end" strategy covering producers to pipelines to rigs, confirms we're in early innings of a commodity super cycle, and warns speculation will continue pushing until a recession breaks the momentum. Ted draws parallels to 1999 when shorts got killed for nine more months, sees no recession on the horizon yet to break the fever, and cautions that baby boomers age 65+ hold more stock than ever in history making them the worst positioned he's ever seen for the eventual wealth transfer. Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Ted Oakley returns, founder of Oxbow Advisors 0:56 Two different things - Wall Street vs. the economy 1:42 Consumer keeps falling apart - Credit card delinquencies at GFC levels 2:24 K-shaped economy becoming more like an "i-shaped" economy 3:32 "The Gambler" letter - Younger investors just betting, not investing 4:02 Betting culture - Sports betting, one-day options, Bitcoin 5:21 Know when to hold them, know when to fold them 5:39 Cash position at 50% in short-term treasuries 6:41 Long bond move - Topped 5.19% on 30-year 6:57 Late 70s/early 80s parallel - Inflation went from 5% to 18% 7:49 Are bond vigilantes coming back? 7:54 Bond market eventually rules everything 8:21 Expectation of more inflation ahead 8:27 May CPI could come in at 4.25% or higher, 4.5-4.75% by fall 9:30 Financial repression is the only way out 10:36 Can't see how Fed cuts rates at all 11:09 Asset holders benefited from inflation but that changes in linear inflation 12:18 Energy is largest position - Up 35% vs. S&P's 20% 13:11 Big tech stocks barely up from November/December levels 13:41 Semiconductors probably at high for next 5 years 14:34 Energy dramatically underweight in portfolios - Only 3% of S&P 15:03 1980: Energy was 33% of S&P 15:54 Energy names - Well to the end strategy 16:53 Producers, midstream, rigs - The whole package 17:34 Where we are in commodity cycle - Early innings 18:38 Commodity positions - Rio Tinto, Vale, uranium, antimony, critical minerals 19:18 Oil price and energy thesis 20:16 AutoZone warning on motor oil shortages coming 20:54 Precious metals positioning today 21:54 Gold could go to $4,000 or $3,800 - Shake out momentum players 23:12 1999 parallel - Momentum could continue 9 more months 24:19 No recession on horizon - Need that to break momentum 25:14 Speculative nature pushes until recession breaks it 25:51 Second Generation Wealth - Massive wealth transfer concerns 26:31 Baby boomers 65+ have most stock in assets ever in history 27:22 Closing thoughts

    28 min

  7. May 19

    #371 George Noble: Fed's Hands Tied, Bond Vigilantes Waking Up, Buy the Dip Dead, Margin of Safety Thin

    George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, returns to review his February predictions on bonds, energy, and the AI trade, warning that the margin of safety is particularly small right now as there's no room for error with stocks highly valued, companies over-earning, and policymakers unable to ease on either fiscal or monetary fronts. He explains bond vigilantes are awakening as yields hit 30-year highs in Japan and 20-year highs in Europe, predicts the Fed cutting rates against surging inflation will backfire spectacularly, and reveals forward oil contracts are finally rising as the market believes this situation won't pass quickly. Noble declares we're in the "golden age for stock picking" after active managers got killed by ETFs for years, warns the consumer is already in recession with stocks like Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald's, and Lululemon making multi-year relative lows, and explains his long resources/short consumer-tech spread has generated 10% returns in six weeks. He argues many stocks are in a bubble not because of high PEs but because of unsustainable margins (using shipping stocks as an analogy), reveals consumer ETFs are actually 40% Mag 7, confirms his "death of financialization" thesis as bond markets discipline politicians, and explains why Kevin Warsh is stuck between a rock and hard place with limited policy tools as the buy-the-dip mentality dies. Links: George Noble's Best Income Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/ X: https://x.com/gnoble79 Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenoble Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Big picture macro update since February 0:40 Reviewing previous predictions - Energy, bonds, AI trade 3:32 Margin of safety particularly small right now 5:30 Forward curve moving up - Market believing oil situation won't pass quickly 6:02 Rising oil prices and bond yields - Not positive for risk assets 8:40 Tech leadership unsustainable - Tremendous blow off top 11:00 Buying semis on 8x book historically not a good idea 12:26 Equal weight S&P underperforming - Broader market not doing well 14:21 Long resources, short consumer and tech - 10% return spread 17:03 Bond market move confirming death of financialization thesis 19:52 Fed cutting rates against surging inflation and exploding deficits will backfire 21:15 Bond market vigilantes being awakened 23:38 Japan as canary in coal mine on debt problem 25:33 Gold miners outstanding right now - Out of favor 27:04 Regime shift happening - 60-40 model is dead 29:36 Fed is not in control - They follow the market 32:16 This is the golden age for stock picking 34:21 AI trade - Biggest misallocation of capital in history of the world 36:44 Many stocks in a bubble - Margins are the problem, not PEs 38:37 Shipping stocks example - Bubble in earnings, not valuation 40:20 Consumer is in recession 42:06 Inflation permeating - Gold to energy to food 43:28 Rates won't matter until they matter - Temperature analogy 45:51 Kevin Warsh stuck between rock and hard place 46:38 Margin of safety explained - Seth Klarman's wisdom 50:11 Death of buy the dip mentality 51:27 ETFs are not the answer - Do you know what's in your ETF? 52:53 Golden age of stock picking - Active managers killing it now 54:41 Shorting is a bad business - Just avoid garbage stocks 56:50 Best Income Ideas Conference - May 20th 59:05 Closing thoughts

    46 min

  8. May 16

    #370 Chris Whalen: Why Double-Digit Inflation Is Possible, 30-Year Tops 5%

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair and explains why this represents a dramatic shift from the progressive, statist Fed created by Mariner Eccles in the 1930s to a supply-side approach. Whalen reveals that Fed chairs have enormous unilateral power and predicts Warsh will reduce the balance sheet and reserves while trading off lower short-term rates, ending the regime where "every time the market hiccupped, the Fed ran in and dumped more reserves." He warns the 30-year bond topping 5% is just the beginning, with the long end potentially hitting 6% as Iran war impacts drive inflation to double digits by year end, possibly requiring rationing of key petroleum byproducts before the midterms. Whalen explains why silver is surging (Chinese tech demand, solid-state batteries, reduced mining) while discussing non-bank mortgage drama with United Wholesale Mortgage potentially becoming "the next Countrywide." He argues stocks will continue rising as inflation hedges, dismisses apocalyptic debt scenarios since the world needs dollars for trade, and predicts we'll need to get used to mortgages in the 6-7% range instead of 4-5% under higher-for-longer. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817 Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira845 Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Silver soars, Warsh confirmed, 30-year bond tops 5% 0:32 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair - What changes now? 6:14 Market 7:29 Banks bought back more stock than they made money 9:00 30-year bond hits 5% for first time since 2008 9:56 Planning rationing strategies for key materials from petroleum 11:04 Could get to double-digit inflation by end of year 12:28 Long end of curve could get closer to 6% than 5% 12:56 Trump meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing - How big of a deal? 14:25 Dow hitting 50,000 - Blow off top or still runway? 19:02 Silver surging - What's going on? 21:03 The next Countrywide? 24:29 End game with higher for longer under Warsh 27:09 Viewer mail - National debt and market impact 29:19 Will Warsh treat Iran war inflation as self-correcting? 30:33 What Chris is watching next week/closing thoughts

    33 min
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About

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Information

  • Creator
    Julia La Roche
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    379
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Julia La Roche
  • Show Website
    The Julia La Roche Show

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