The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche
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Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

  1. 19H AGO

    #350 Chris Whalen: Powell Stays, Warsh Waits, and Trump Has Nobody to Blame But Himself

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says the private credit unwind is now spreading to consumer credit funds and warns that retirees and pension funds will feel the pain most — while the firms that sold these products face devastating reputational damage. On the Fed, he calls Trump's handling of Powell "truly incredible, almost like he wants to screw it up" and warns Powell could remain Fed Chair for three more years if Trump doesn't back down. He says the Fed is late, oil above $100 is not a monetary problem but a political one, and that if Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf it could effectively end his presidency. He's buying gold and silver on the dip and watching the K-shaped economy crack wider. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and welcome 0:52 - Consumer credit 3:16 - Big banks now offering ways to short private credit 4:53 - How private equity evolved into private credit — and why quality collapsed 7:25 - "Risk Concealed" — SPE loans, PIK structures and hidden bank exposure 9:26 - How do you know if YOU are exposed? You don't. 11:29 - "We're all exposed" — what bank disclosure actually tells you 13:12 - The opacity problem — loan by loan, you can't see it 13:58 - Will everyday investors feel this? Retirees and pension funds will 15:25 - The Fed — rates unchanged, Powell is staying 16:11 - Trump "almost like he wants to screw it up" — the Powell/Warsh debacle 19:06 - Powell could be Fed Chair for three more years — here's why 20:47 - Could Trump have gotten the rate cuts he wanted if he'd handled this differently? 21:50 - If Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf "that's the end of his presidency" 23:18 - All roads lead to inflation — and it's not monetary 25:19 - Is the Fed late? "Chronically late for the past 10 years" 26:27 - The K-shaped economy — the bottom half is already in recession 27:38 - Luxury hotels booming, economy hotels empty — the data tells the story 29:58 - Inflation and affordability will decide the midterms 30:29 - FHFA rolls back climate insurance rules — mostly a press release 31:13 - UWMC/TWO — a cash offer emerged, Whalen says Two Harbors goes to auction 33:43 - Viewer Mail: AGNC and mortgage REITs — what to own for income 35:41 - Viewer Mail: Why is gold dropping? Whalen is buying the dip 37:15 - What Whalen is watching next week

    40 min

  2. 2D AGO

    #349 Peter Schiff: Inflation Is Going to Double Digits — The Fed Can't Stop It

    Peter Schiff, chief economist at Europacific Asset Management, makes the case that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than the 1970s stagflation era, pointing to a $39 trillion national debt, accelerating inflation, a weakening labor market, and a new war that will drive deficits even higher. He argues the Fed is trapped — raising rates aggressively would trigger a financial collapse worse than 2008, so instead inflation will spiral into double or even triple digits, producing what he calls an "inflationary depression." Schiff sees gold, silver, and foreign stocks as the plays of the decade, warns that crypto investors are "betting on the wrong horse," and predicts a dollar and sovereign debt crisis that could begin overnight in China's time zone. He closes with cautious optimism that the coming crisis could ultimately serve as a catalyst for a return to free-market principles. Links https://x.com/PeterSchiff Europac.com http://SchiffGold.com Timestamps: 0:00 – Intro & inflation going to double digits teaser 0:32 – Guest intro: Peter Schiff, Europacific Asset Management 0:45 – Why today's economy is worse than the 1970s 1:13 – National debt: $39 trillion and exploding 2:03 – Recession risk, war costs & path to $50T debt 2:53 – Why the Fed can't do what Volcker did in 1980 3:37 – Labor market reality vs. Trump's "greatest economy" claims 4:11 – GDP numbers: 2025 vs. 2024 compared 4:46 – Producer price inflation spiking — leading indicator 6:01 – Stagflation or something worse? "Inflationary depression" 6:44 – Why unemployment & inflation are understated vs. the 70s 8:05 – The Fed's impossible position: rock and a hard place 8:56 – What the Fed should do — and why it won't 9:23 – Inflation into double digits, possibly triple digits 10:13 – The short-term pain we need but won't take 12:02 – Why this will be worse than 2008 12:31 – A dollar crisis and sovereign debt crisis instead 13:27 – What the Fed should actually do right now 14:18 – Stocks vs. gold: the Dow in real terms 15:15 – Gold's run to $5,500 and today's selloff explained 16:29 – Why rate cut timing misses the point — real rates matter 17:19 – Housing market: most overpriced ever, 30–40% decline needed 21:44 – Dollar crisis: what is the biggest threat to the dollar? 22:05 – How the war is affecting the dollar short-term 23:10 – Tariffs, Greenland, and losing global credibility 25:27 – Could Trump succeed on foreign policy?27:08 – How has the war changed Schiff's investing strategy? 27:21 – Energy stocks, gold miners & the opportunity right now 28:54 – Gold, silver & mining stocks — where to buy 31:10 – Parallels to the 2008 pre-crisis gold and dollar moves 32:18 – How a dollar crisis unfolds — what to watch for 34:17 – Money rotating out of the US into foreign markets 35:15 – Early innings on the rotation? Is this a new regime? 36:08 – Retail investors in crypto instead of gold — a big mistake 38:25 – Does Schiff have a gold price target? 38:36 – The Fed, the dollar, and gold since 1913 41:47 – 2028 prediction: Democrats win and make it worse 45:04 – Democrats will run against capitalism — and win 46:15 – What is Trump's economic endgame? 52:52 – Biggest risk & reason for hope 58:38 – Wrap-up & closing

    1 hr

  3. MAR 14

    #348 Chris Whalen: This Could Be One of the Biggest Busts in U.S. Financial History

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns that private credit could become one of the biggest busts in U.S. financial history — not a systemic crisis, but a slow, painful unwind that will take years and leave many investors with no legal rights. He alleges that BDC accounting fraud is already systemic and the SEC isn't paying attention. On the macro, he says the Fed should still cut rates one to two times this year despite oil near $100 because war is not a monetary event — and that raising into an oil shock, as some central banks did before 2008, would be a mistake. He predicts a significant housing price correction by 2028, calls Trump's economic agenda incoherent, and warns that $100 oil by election day could cost Republicans the midterms. His highest conviction position right now: preserving capital. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 - Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 0:31 JPMorgan pulling back from private credit 4:32 - The $4.2 trillion exposure number most investors don't know about 7:05 - Where Whalen is personally invested right now 8:02 - Is private credit systemic or not? 8:43 - "Risk is never contained" — what to think when you hear that language 11:42 - Will the Trump administration end in a financial crisis? 13:50 - Rate cuts — will the Fed move despite $100 oil? 16:16 - Base case: one to two cuts, oil at $100 most of the year 17:51 - Housing off the radar in Washington? 19:22 - Midterms — is Trump cooked? 20:30 - Trump's economic endgame   23:05 - Gold and silver — breakout or going sideways? 25:57 - Banks 28:12 - Viewer mail 35:43 - What Whalen is watching next week

    37 min

  4. MAR 12

    #347 Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready

    Louis-Vincent Gave, founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, joins Julia to break down the three prices that drive every investment decision — the dollar, the 10-year treasury, and oil — and why right now all three are flashing red. With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, Louis explains why he sees oil heading toward $120 and why that number breaks the global economy. He makes the case that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is dead and should be replaced with 60% equities, 20% precious metals, and 20% energy. He reveals why the Chinese renminbi is the most undervalued asset on the planet, why China already won the trade war, and why the US is in greater danger of crushing its allies than itself. One of the most thought-provoking macro conversations you'll hear this year. Links: https://web.gavekal.com/ https://x.com/gave_vincent Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome 01:22 The 3 prices that drive everything: dollar, 10-year, oil 2:38 Oil went from $65 to $85 — but Louis fears $120-150 4:08 Why the oil futures curve isn't pricing in a prolonged crisis 5:06 Dollar bear market — why the rebound won't last 6:28 "If truth is the first casualty of war, bonds are a close second" 6:53 The binary outcome on Iran — both scenarios are bad for bonds 7:51 Regime change = Berlin Wall moment — but real rates explode 9:44 "Tails I lose, heads I don't win" — the bond market trap 11:33 $100 oil and Trump's political predicament 13:41 Trump wanted lower energy — "the road to hell is paved with good intentions" 14:06 Why $100 oil is "right pocket, left pocket" for the US 15:58 The real victims: Europe, Taiwan, Korea, Japan 17:23 90% of Hormuz oil heads east — not to the US 18:39 Missing 15 million barrels: prices skyrocket or demand collapses 20:28 Why energy is the best hedge for your portfolio right now 21:50 The new portfolio: 60% equities, 20% precious metals, 20% energy 22:07 The four quadrants framework explained 25:40 Why the 60/40 portfolio is officially dead 27:52 Gold is NOT an inflation hedge — what it actually is 28:37 Why central banks started buying gold after Russia asset seizure 30:08 Western retail has completely missed the gold bull market 31:32 The broken equation: US treasuries no longer equal commodities 32:59 The next shift — stockpiling physical commodities 33:15 "I'm bearish on the dollar and treasuries — but the US has pocket aces" 34:38 Four pillars: fundamentals, momentum, positioning, valuation 36:40 Where Louis sees opportunity: Chile, Brazil, China, South Africa 37:21 China for beginners — the biggest misconceptions 39:05 China's growth miracle — it wasn't central planning 42:06 The Hunger Games of capitalism 44:24 How China really views the Iran war — purely economic 46:46 The most underappreciated macro theme right now 48:19 "Stupidly, stupidly undervalued" — the renminbi slam dunk trade 50:41 Why China kept the RMB artificially low for 8 years 51:49 The weaponization of China's own savings52:35 "China went to the gym" — why it could stand up to Trump 54:18 Who won the trade war? 56:12 The one risk keeping Louis up at night 57:08 "$120 oil breaks stuff" — the number to watch

    59 min

  5. MAR 10

    #346 David Woo: The Market Is Completely Wrong About Iran, Oil & What Comes Next

    Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound and co-author of the upcoming financial thriller Merry Go Round Broke Down, returns to the show to break down the geopolitical and market implications of the US-Iran conflict. Woo argues that markets are dangerously mispricing the situation, betting either on a quick Trump "TACO" or a rapid US victory — both of which he sees as unlikely. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, oil sitting near $100 a barrel, and Iran executing a measured, strategic response, Woo believes this conflict is far more protracted than Wall Street is pricing. He explains why Trump, now effectively a lame duck after the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, is unlikely to back down given the enormous legacy stakes, and why China's deep investment in Iran makes this the first real US-China proxy war. Woo also breaks down the winners and losers globally, shares his current positioning — short stocks, long oil — and warns that an interaction between rising oil prices, the AI bubble, and private credit stress could be the perfect storm markets aren't prepared for. Links:   Book: https://www.amazon.com/Merry-Go-Round-Broke-Down-Novel-Globalization/dp/B0GCX8Y6KT YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound 00:00 Introduction 00:43 Setting the geopolitical stage 01:16 Why markets are dangerously complacent 03:34 Why Trump won't TACO this time 05:50 Trump's legacy shift — why Iran, why now 07:48 Iran's military capabilities — what the US hasn't destroyed 10:14 Oil at $95 — what's actually priced in 12:47 The Strait of Hormuz and what markets are missing 15:11 Can the Fed cut rates at $100 oil? 16:00 Retail investors driving the market higher 17:56 Global recession risk 19:57 Winners and losers — Canada, Russia, Europe, Japan 20:27 Why the midterms are almost irrelevant now 24:41 Base case — Trump loses the House 26:00 Why Trump is moving on Iran before lame duck sets in 28:09 Regime change and the greatest presidential legacy 29:55 China-Iran railroad and the real proxy war 31:24 Can the US control the Strait of Hormuz? 33:00 The Houthis playbook 35:15 UAE under attack — interceptors running out 37:04 Iran's civilization and strategic depth 39:12 David's positions — short stocks, long oil 40:42 When will markets wake up? 43:21 Most likely outcome — civil war not regime change 45:11 What Xi Jinping is thinking right now 47:03 Is this worth the risk for the US? 49:43 The Pearl Harbor analogy and China's Belt and Road 52:39 Gold, crowded trades getting blown out 55:38 Private credit, the AI bubble and the perfect storm 58:44 What's keeping David up at night — AI 01:03:07 David's book — Merry Go Round Broke Down

    1h 5m

  6. MAR 7

    #345 Chris Whalen: Private Credit Is Blowing Up, Nobody In Washington Is Paying Attention, and the Trump Administration Is Heading Toward a Financial Crisis

    In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns the Trump administration is heading toward a financial crisis, driven by private credit contagion, hidden leverage, and a Washington that isn't paying attention. He breaks down the BlackRock blowup, the PIK loan problem, Iran's market impact, and explains why he's buying gold and staying out of financials. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen 00:36 - Classic risk-off period we'll remember for years 02:42 - Lloyd Blankfein says private credit "smells like 2008" — is he right? 05:00 - BlackRock marks $25M loan from 100 cents to zero in 3 months 06:50 - Apollo CEO calls this a "shake out" 09:08 -Goldco 10:08 - PIK loans & "POOP" structures — is this the beginning of a default wave? 13:26 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now 16:03 - "Every asset class is short interest rate volatility" — what that means for you 18:05 - Will the Fed cut rates? Whalen says yes — possibly as soon as March 19:46 - Nobody in Washington is talking about financial contagion — who should be? 22:22 - Tariffs: why Whalen calls the $175B refund story a "huge nothing" 23:04 - Gold & silver: why Whalen is more confident than ever on precious metals 26:07 - Iran escalates: what it means for markets & why there's no endgame 27:08 - Teapot Dome, Warren Harding & the Trump parallel 30:37 - Viewer Mail: Is your annuity at risk if private credit blows up? 31:49 - Viewer Mail: Is there an MBS story to the private credit unraveling? 33:00 - Viewer Mail: The Fed's balance sheet surge — should you be worried? 35:00 - Viewer Mail: Are we heading back to a gold-based monetary system? 36:30 - Final thoughts: what Whalen is watching next week

    38 min

  7. FEB 28

    #344 Chris Whalen: Private Credit Is Unraveling, Consumer Credit Is Cracking, and Silver Surges

    In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down the unraveling of private credit and why retail investors were never suitable for these investments in the first place. He explains how private credit shops have quietly gained access to Federal Home Loan Bank funding through insurance company acquisitions — a taxpayer-subsidized arrangement he finds extraordinary and plans to investigate further. On markets, Chris argues liquidity will be the defining theme of 2026, with money rotating out of speculative and private assets back into public markets. He also flags early warning signs in consumer credit, names the specific companies to watch for deterioration, and explains why the mortgage market needs rates to fall further before any real pickup in activity. On precious metals, Chris details a seismic secular shift underway as India joins China in moving away from COMEX pricing toward Asian markets — and warns that if COMEX cannot deliver physical metal against futures contracts, it could be forced out of the business entirely. Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    Timestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen 0:49 Private credit is unraveling — are retail investors about to run like Silicon Valley Bank 3:51 The insurance company play 5:20 Does the insurance and private credit connection create contagion risk 6:05 Nvidia beats but the market sells it — is the AI trade structurally broken 8:07 Why has the broader market held up despite the tech and SaaS selloff 9:00 Liquidity is the theme of 2026 10:12 Banks discussion 14:49 Mortgage market — 30 year rates dip below 6%, does it last 16:42 Will we see more rate cuts — Chris's expectations for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair 18:37 What it would take to unlock the housing market 20:34 Tariffs 21:50 The most important things for markets to focus on right now 22:36 Silver — COMEX and London are losing their role as price setters 26:36 Chris's portfolio — gold, silver, junior miners and why productive capacity matters 27:18 Viewer question — Basel III, central banks, and gold as a tier one asset 29:44 What Chris is watching and writing about next week 31:12 Where to find Chris and The Institutional Risk Analyst — 25% off for viewers

    33 min

  8. FEB 26

    #343 Bill Fleckenstein: We're in a Completely Unprecedented Market Environment — And When It Changes, It's Going to Be a Really Big Deal

    Bill Fleckenstein, founder and president of Fleckenstein Capital, returns for a wide-ranging conversation covering what he calls one of the most confusing macro environments of his 40-plus year career. He breaks down how the passive bid has fundamentally changed market dynamics, creating an artificially priced market that is not a true price discovery mechanism and cannot end well. Beneath the surface of a tape that is only a couple percent off all-time highs, Bill sees a stealth rotation away from high-flying tech and AI names into old economy stocks — but without the contagion a pre-passive-bid market would have experienced. On gold, Bill explains why the move to $5,000 is a function of eroding confidence, weaponized financial systems, and unmanageable sovereign debt — and why the bull market is far from over since Americans have barely shown up to the party. He also issues a pointed warning on bonds, arguing the bond market has not sanctioned the Fed's rate cuts in what could be the early stages of the market taking the printing press away from the Fed — and predicts yield curve control is likely coming under the next Fed chair regardless of who it is. Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Greenspans-Bubbles-Ignorance-Federal-Reserve/dp/0071591583 Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/fleckcap Website: https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/ 0:00 Intro and welcome back Bill Fleckenstein 1:39 Big picture macro view - "confused" 4:24 Splatterings beneath the surface — what's really happening in the market 5:51 The passive bid explained — why rotation feels impossible 7:25 The tape holds together while market cap gets destroyed underneath 10:58 Why the market isn't cracking — what would have happened without the passive bid 12:40 Is this still a free market? The dangerous setup nobody appreciates 15:16 Short selling 18:23 Bill's positioning 19:21 Gold at $5,100 24:18 Silver 30:33 Why gold should have been higher all along the way 36:00 US debt at $38.7 trillion — is there a breaking point or slow erosion? 37:49 Bonds — the big story most people are missing 40:00 Is the bond market losing trust in the Fed? 41:00 The bond market will ultimately take the printing press away from the Fed 42:06 Inflation psychology — why the consequences of inflation are not transitory 44:45 Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair 45:37 Yield curve control is coming 49:04 What would get Bill to deploy his 30-40% cash position 51:26 The biggest risk nobody is talking about — the passive bid 54:26 Parting thoughts and where to find Bill — fleckensteincapital.com

    57 min
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About

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Information

  • Creator
    Julia La Roche
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    351
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Julia La Roche
  • Show Website
    The Julia La Roche Show

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