The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche
  • 4.6 (87)
  • Investing
  • Semiweekly

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

  1. 1d ago

    #431 Raoul Pal: The Economy We Know Ends by 2030 — and Why We’ll Never See a Big Recession Again

    Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Real Vision and Exponential Age Asset Management and author of the Global Macro Investor, joins Julia to discuss his new book, The Everything Code. He argues that liquidity drives nearly all market returns, and that governments now service their debts by debasing money at about 8% a year. That, he says, is why home prices outrun incomes and why traditional assets like real estate, gold and a 60/40 portfolio don’t actually get you ahead. He calls the November 5 sell-off noise in a market short on liquidity, and makes the case that AI isn’t a bubble: demand is infinite, the hyperscalers have “more money than God,” and every layer of the AI stack is highly profitable. Pal explains why he no longer believes big systemic recessions can happen, since debasement works like a put option we all pay for. He also explains why he thinks the economy as we know it starts to break down by 2030, as AI agents become economic actors. Plus: why crypto is built for an agent economy, why he’s buying digital art, and why being human, through attention and experiences, becomes more valuable. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1804094196?th=1 Website: https://raoulpal.com/ Timestamps: 0:00 Preview: why traditional assets won’t get you ahead 0:25 Welcome Raoul Pal and The Everything Code 1:24 The macro setup: liquidity is restricted 2:41 A mid-cycle pause 3:03 How liquidity actually works 3:45 Aging populations, debt and “the greatest chart in macro” 5:03 Where new money comes from 6:14 The only two assets that beat debasement 7:53 The 8% debasement hurdle 8:42 Why home prices outrun incomes 12:16 The November 5 sell-off 14:48 Why this isn’t 2000 or the railroads 15:32 Anthropic and supernormal profits 18:58 Could politics stop AI? 20:03 Behind the “we’re all going to die” narrative 21:51 Debunking the AI bubble bear case 24:04 Why big recessions are a thing of the past 25:24 Debasement as a put option 28:22 How 2020 changed his mind 29:39 The economic singularity by 2030 33:06 Agents multiplying at a double exponential 33:44 When AI agents start building businesses 36:33 How to prepare: invest in it 37:13 Why crypto is built for agents 39:31 Why he’s buying digital art 41:24 AI as the Fourth Turning 42:22 What humans will do: attention and experiences 45:15 His contrarian call 46:51 Where to find Raoul

  2. 4d ago

    #430 Chris Whalen: The GOP’s Extinction Event, Rate Hikes Ahead & Why He’s Buying More Gold

    In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a wild week: the midterms, the November 5 sell-off and a hot jobs report. He calls the Republican losses an “extinction event,” but argues it could be good for mainstream Republicans and moderate Democrats, and says Democrats now own the affordability issue. With 165,000 jobs added in October and the economy still running hot, he expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, now free of election-year politics, to hike in December. Whalen sees the sell-off as a possible entry point but says not to hurry. He warns of diesel shortages and a jump in food prices next year, with mortgage rates near 7.4%. Plus: why he expects consolidation in the mortgage industry and REITs exiting, why manufactured housing is a bright spot, and why he disagrees with Jim Bianco on bonds and doesn’t see the 10-year at 4%. He also explains why he’s adding to gold, which he thinks has found a floor. A viewer asks why gold has gone nowhere while the debt has climbed $3 trillion. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 Preview: how high would Warsh have to hike? 0:25 Welcome to The Wrap, in studio 0:47 Remember the 5th of November: midterms and the sell-off 1:13 Why the GOP loss could be a good thing 3:06 “Extinction event” and the moderate Democrats’ win 4:04 Jobs day: 165,000 jobs in October 4:24 How high would Warsh have to hike? 4:42 Democrats now own affordability: diesel and food prices 6:41 Should you worry about the sell-off? 7:16 Worries in the mortgage industry 8:09 What it would take: 6.5% mortgages 9:31 Should we get used to 7% mortgages? 10:53 Manufactured housing as a solution 12:33 The GOP’s path to recovery 16:06 The next two years for investors: gridlock 17:45 Where to invest now: energy, bonds, financials 18:22 Bonds: why the 10-year won’t hit 4% 21:24 Does the new Congress change inflation? 22:37 Warsh is free to hike: look to December 24:15 Is there a 10-year yield he’d buy? 26:30 Gold: a short-term move or something more? 28:10 Bank picks: Flagstar and the Canadian banks 30:44 Viewer question: why has gold gone nowhere as debt climbed? 32:44 What to watch next week The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

  3. 6d ago

    #429 Henrik Zeberg: Now We Rally — Not Because Things Are Great, But Because Things Are Bad

    Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, joins Julia the morning after the midterms with a bold call: the bottom is in, and the final run of the longest bull market of our lifetimes starts now. He expects the Nasdaq to rally about 30%, with a dip around Thanksgiving and a top around January. Then a bust that he says follows the 2007 template, with the S&P potentially falling to about 3,500. Zeberg explains why markets often rally hardest as the economy rolls over, and walks through his business cycle framework: housing leads, jobs follow, and the consumer (“Mrs. Johnson”) decides everything. He argues the bust will be deflationary first. When the Fed steps in, he expects it to create stagflation it can’t fix. He says gold could dip to about $3,000 first before heading to $25,000–$30,000 in the 2030s, and that bond yields have already topped. The next domino he’s watching is private credit, which he calls the “nuclear bomb” that’s far bigger than people think. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/ Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201 TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Henrik Zeberg 1:19 “Now we rally”: why the bottom is in 3:33 AI’s first dominoes and a weakening economy 5:27 The 2007 template 5:57 New bull market or blow-off top? 7:44 Why markets rally when things are bad 10:13 Where the blow-off top began, and S&P 3,500 11:58 His business cycle framework 14:18 Housing leads, jobs follow 16:41 Why printing money can’t stop a recession 18:28 AI, the bubble and the Fourth Turning 25:13 Deflation first, then stagflation 28:15 Gold: why it falls first and $25,000–$30,000 later 32:05 Have bond yields topped? 35:19 Timing the top: January 38:04 What would change his call 39:21 Private credit: the “nuclear bomb” 42:39 Parting advice The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

  4. Nov 3

    #428 Jim Bianco: After 6 Years Bearish, I’m Finally Turning on Bonds — Why 5% Is the New Normal

    Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche in studio for the first time in a year with a big shift: after six years of being bearish on bonds, he’s turned neutral and even launched a bond fund. He argues 5% yields are fair value, not a crisis, because we’re now in a world of 3% inflation and 2% growth. He says that world exists by choice: Washington won’t let cheap Chinese goods back in, as shown by the $15,000 Chinese electric car the U.S. has effectively banned, and wage-driven services inflation stays sticky. On the midterms, he says the key question is whether moderate Democrats can outvote the Democratic Socialists. Bianco also explains why Silicon Valley thinks it has too little compute while Wall Street fears it has too much, why he thinks banks are blocking AI agents to protect $120 billion a year in profits, and why AI is a bubble with years left to run. He explains why a divided Fed under Kevin Warsh is a good thing. And his contrarian call: the labor market is fine, because with a shrinking workforce the economy needs only about 30,000 new jobs a year. Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors: Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links:   BiancoResearch.com   BiancoAdvisors.com x.com/biancoresearch Timestamps 0:00 Preview: a low-risk entry for bonds 0:19 Welcome Jim Bianco 1:02 Why he turned on bonds after six years 3:25 What would make him bullish 4:14 A value call, not a call for lower yields 6:54 How high would yields have to go? 7:23 The biggest risk: inflation 11:42 Why 3% inflation is a choice 12:10 The $15,000 car America won’t let in 14:20 Why services inflation stays sticky 15:16 Get used to 3% inflation 17:57 Midterms: which Democratic Party wins? 21:16 What it means for markets 22:39 Last week’s drawdown: Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street on AI 25:52 Why personal AI agents are game changers 27:37 Why banks are blocking AI agents 29:19 Amazon vs. Perplexity 31:28 Is AI a bubble? 33:46 A genuinely different Fed under Warsh 35:50 Does a divided Fed mean more volatility? 38:35 Contrarian call: the labor market is fine 40:31 Why we only need 30,000 jobs a year 42:33 Wrap-up The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

  5. Oct 31

    #427 Chris Whalen: Warsh’s Credibility Is Eroding, Private Credit Beats Regulators, Mortgage Pain Ahead

    In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris reacts to the Fed’s 10–2 hold. He compares Kevin Warsh to Paul Volcker, who he says paused his inflation fight before the 1980 election for political reasons, and argues Warsh’s inaction is eroding his credibility. He predicts Democrats will gain 20+ House seats in next week’s midterms, with the Senate a toss-up. He also explains why tech companies will have to fund AI with stock instead of debt, and why he thinks half of planned data centers can’t get built. Whalen calls the NAIC’s retreat on policing private ratings a big win for private credit, warning that annuity and life insurance holders now have “nobody looking out for you.” He points to Baltimore mortgage fraud as an example. Plus: rising government mortgage delinquencies, refinances falling below 20% of volume, his scoop on UWM’s servicing sale, why 3.4% GDP growth is fueled by a $2 trillion deficit, and a viewer question on Flagstar’s preferred stock. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome to The Wrap 1:18 Warsh and Volcker: playing politics? 3:02 Is Warsh’s credibility eroding? 4:38 Midterm predictions 6:09 Is the bond market tightening for the Fed? 7:35 Why half of planned data centers can’t happen 9:19 Can Warsh break with the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era? 12:02 What people are missing about Warsh 13:30 Private credit beats the insurance regulators 16:41 What it means for annuity holders 17:32 Baltimore’s mortgage fraud problem 18:37 Are the banks exposed? 19:33 Mortgage pain ahead: delinquencies and Ginnie Mae 22:46 Is there a contrarian case for UWM? 25:54 3.4% GDP and the $2 trillion deficit 27:24 Iran war: how much inflation is transitory? 29:14 Viewer question: Flagstar’s preferred stock 31:03 What to watch after the midterms The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

  6. Oct 29

    #426 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh Could Slam the Economy Into Recession — Fed Day Reaction

    On Fed Day, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, joins Julia in studio to react to the Fed’s 10–2 vote to hold rates. She calls it a hawkish hold and says the real surprise was Governor Lisa Cook’s dissent alongside Beth Hammack’s, a move she sees as political after renewed attacks from President Trump. Booth calls Kevin Warsh’s press conference “word salad” and says his refusal to call financial conditions tight protects his narrative more than it reflects reality. She warns that hyperscalers are on a debt treadmill they can’t stop, and that more than 100% of GDP growth is now coming from AI. Further tightening, she argues, could slam the economy into a recession rather than ease it into one. She says Warsh is ignoring the inflation breadth measure he told markets to watch at Jackson Hole, along with the underemployed renters missing from jobless claims. The Fed’s biggest blind spot, she says, is the credit market, especially with foreign investors piled into the AI trade. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links:     Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth   Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Preview: “They can’t afford the rent” 0:26 Welcome: Fed Day reaction 0:57 Lisa Cook’s surprise dissent 2:54 Why it was a hawkish hold 3:57 Warsh and financial conditions: “in touch with his narrative” 5:14 An unsatisfying press conference 6:13 Liquidity into year-end and the $100 billion IPO 7:32 The hyperscalers’ debt treadmill 8:25 Could Warsh slam the economy into recession? 8:47 What jobless claims are missing 12:13 Lessons from Halloween 2018 and the Powell pivot 13:10 How fast the rate-cut debate could flip 13:57 Fewer Fed meetings and the risk of an emergency cut 14:39 “Fed Up” again: renters and the underemployed 15:36 Inflation breadth: Warsh’s own yardstick 17:02 More than 100% of GDP growth is AI 18:09 What a blue wave could mean for AI 18:55 What the Fed is underestimating: credit 19:55 Wrap-up

  7. Oct 27

    #425 Axel Merk: I Sat Down With Kevin Warsh — What the Fed Is Really Up To and Where Gold Goes Next

    Axel Merk, founder and CIO of Merk Investments, which manages about $2.5 billion, joins Julia ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. He explains why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s goal of “removing a dose of accommodation” means a tightening bias without a sledgehammer. He also explains why gold has fallen during the Iran war: markets treat it as a temporary supply shock that pushes real rates higher. And he describes the decoupling he’s watching for that could free gold from the conflict. Merk, who met with Warsh at the Fed in August, says Warsh has been consistent and is trying to pull the Fed back from micromanaging the economy and from heavy forward guidance. He also describes the institutional pushback Warsh faces. He breaks down the four kinds of gold buyers and sees near-zero odds of a hike this week. He warns that the AI debt binge could eventually force lower rates. And he argues that AI’s massive capital needs are leveling the playing field for gold miners, which he calls some of the cheapest assets out there. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links:https://www.merkinvestments.com/https://x.com/axelmerkTimestamps: Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Axel Merk1:05 The big picture: Warsh’s “dose of accommodation”3:17 Iran, the Israeli election and the midterms5:27 Why gold fell during the Iran war7:49 Will gold decouple from Iran?9:50 The four types of gold buyers12:18 Who is Kevin Warsh? Meeting him at the Fed15:16 What Fed independence really means17:40 Forward guidance: referee, not player20:24 What it’s like in the room21:07 Why not just abolish the Fed?24:18 What markets look like with a narrower Fed27:34 Blaming the Fed for populism29:56 Warsh’s cat-herding challenge31:18 Hike or hold this week?33:26 Volatility, cash and how to size risk36:03 Why he’s heavy in gold miners39:13 Parting thought: invest in your health The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

  8. Oct 24

    #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming

    In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a “pump and dump.” He explains why the GSEs won’t be released during Trump’s term and lays out his own fix: buy back the public common shares and leave the U.S. as the sole shareholder. He breaks down Auction.com data showing foreclosure auctions up 25% from a year ago as COVID-era protections end and housing shifts to a buyer’s market, and he shares his advice for sellers: price to sell. Whalen also covers REIT earnings, United Wholesale Mortgage’s strategy shift and Annaly’s return to book value. He explains why he’s less bullish than his friend Ralph on 10-year Treasuries near 5%, and whether the Fed will hike or hold at next week’s meeting. He says he’s long energy, adding to gold on weakness and cautious on financials as credit problems surface. He closes with the risk he thinks nobody is watching closely enough: an unexpected turn in the Russia-Ukraine war. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome to The Wrap 1:04 Bessent, Fannie and Freddie, and the “pump and dump” 3:48 Whalen’s fix: the U.S. as sole shareholder 5:08 Why “privatization” without control is a fraud 7:48 Foreclosure auctions up 25% 09:45 Is there a credit problem in housing? 10:56 Advice for sellers: price to sell 13:08 REIT earnings and UWM’s new strategy 14:19 Annaly back to book value 15:42 The case for 10-year Treasuries 19:14 Why Whalen isn’t as bullish on bonds 20:16 Bonds vs. gold vs. cash 22:06 October FOMC: hike or hold? 23:31 Natural gas down, diesel still high 24:59 Positioning: energy, gold and caution on financials 26:43 How income investing works 28:41 The biggest risk nobody’s talking about 32:00 What to watch next week The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

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4.6
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Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Information

  • Creator
    Julia La Roche
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    434
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Julia La Roche
  • Show Website
    The Julia La Roche Show

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