THE VON GREYERZ PERSPECTIVE - vongreyerz.substack.com

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vongreyerz.substack.com Welcome to THE VON GREYERZ PERSPECTIVE — the unapologetic podcast from Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg of VON GREYERZ AG. In an era of monetary distortion, market manipulation, and media spin, this show cuts through the noise with hard-hitting conversations on gold, macroeconomics, and wealth preservation. Von Greyerz and Piepenburg bring decades of experience and unfiltered insight into systemic risk, central bank policy, and the role of precious metals in safeguarding real wealth. If you're seeking clarity, not comfort — and truth, not trend — you're in the right place. vongreyerz.substack.com

  1. 2d ago

    US CHOICE: SAVE THE ECONOMY VS. SAVE THE $

    More than a century ago, J.P. Morgan said: “Gold is money and all else is credit.” The dollar was once defined by the amount of gold behind it. In 1879, $1 represented 23.22 grains of gold. After the gold price was fixed at $35 an ounce in 1934, that fell to 13.714 grains. And today? The equivalent is around 0.11 of a grain. The pressure on currencies is now showing up elsewhere, too. Japan is a good example. Japan depends on oil and LNG from the Gulf. Shipments from America’s strategic petroleum reserves have helped replace part of that supply, particularly for it. But those reserves are now being depleted. Thus, Japan is facing three pressures at the same time: * Higher energy costs * Rising bond yields * An enormous debt burden The situation brings back memories of the 1970s. During the 1973–74 oil crisis, Japanese consumer price inflation eventually reached between 25% and 30%. It has also been a major source of capital for the U.S. and other G7 economies, including the U.S. Treasury market. If Japanese institutions begin selling foreign assets to meet funding needs at home, those investment flows could start moving in the opposite direction. That would put more pressure on bond markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is already moving higher after breaking out of its previous range. Higher oil prices could add to that pressure. More expensive energy would feed into consumer prices, while higher inflation would make it harder for bond yields to come down. And this is where the argument returns to gold. China has spent decades preparing for a world in which the dollar plays a smaller role. Since 1971, it has steadily built up its gold holdings, while recent measures have strengthened the connection between the Hong Kong gold market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The free movement of gold between mainland China and Hong Kong would be important if China were to move toward a yuan backed by gold. Russia could potentially take a similar path. But the G7 has far less room to return to a gold standard because doing so would require major cuts in government spending at a time when their economies are already under pressure. That leaves the United States with two choices: Protect the dollar and let the economy suffer OR protect the economy and let the dollar weaken. Neither choice comes without consequences, and this brings us back to J.P. Morgan’s point. When currencies are built on expanding credit, their value depends on confidence in the system behind them. Gold does not carry that same dependency. KEY INSIGHTS 00:00 – 01:09 | Gold reveals the dollar’s long decline The dollar’s gold equivalent has fallen from 23.22 grains in 1879 to around 0.11 grains today. 01:09 – 03:03 | Japan faces a new oil crisis Depleting U.S. strategic petroleum reserves could leave Japan facing higher oil costs, a weaker currency, and rising bond yields. 03:03 – 04:18 | Japan’s debt problem could spread Rising funding costs may force Japan to reduce its overseas investments, with potential consequences for U.S. Treasuries and other G7 bond markets. 04:19 – 05:19 | Oil could push inflation higher Higher energy prices could feed into consumer inflation and put further pressure on bond yields. 05:19 – 06:41 | China is moving closer to gold China is strengthening the connection between its Hong Kong and Shanghai gold markets as it prepares for a world where the yuan plays a larger role. 06:41 – 07:46 | Why the G7 cannot simply return to gold A return to a gold standard would require major cuts in government spending at a time when economic weakness could demand more stimulus. 07:46 – 08:21 | America’s two choices The U.S. can protect the dollar and risk the economy, or support the economy and accept further weakness in the currency. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

  2. Jul 31

    THE FUTURE IS TURMOIL: THE REFUGE IS GOLD

    Political and military conflicts often appear to be local events. A ceasefire is announced → Negotiations resume → Markets react → Attention moves elsewhere. But some conflicts have consequences that reach well beyond the battlefield. Iran War is one of them. Rather than viewing it as an isolated dispute, it is placed within a much larger change taking place in international politics. China, Russia and several other countries are increasingly challenging a world order that has long been led by the United States. Napoleon is often credited with saying, “Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” Whether or not he ever said those words, China’s growing influence has become one of the defining developments of this century. Within that framework, the conflict involving Iran takes on greater significance. Iran occupies a strategic position at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest energy corridors. Much of the oil exported from the Gulf passes through this narrow waterway before continuing toward Europe and Asia. The Strait of Hormuz is only one link in the chain. Oil leaving the Gulf also passes through the Bab al-Mandab Strait before reaching the Suez Canal and international markets. Control over these routes has consequences far beyond the Middle East. Any prolonged disruption would affect energy supplies, transportation costs and industrial production, eventually feeding through to the global economy. The outlook assumes that the conflict is far from settled. Negotiations have continued, but there are doubts that Washington will accept the conditions outlined in the proposed Memorandum of Understanding. In this framework, the current pause is viewed as temporary rather than permanent. That matters because prolonged conflict comes at a cost for both sides. For the United States, one concern is the growing strain on military resources. The war has required substantial use of missiles and drones at a time when replenishing those inventories is becoming more difficult. The pressure is not limited to defence. Many American refineries were built to process sour crude oil from the Gulf. If emergency supplies continue to decline, the concern is not simply higher oil prices but tighter supplies of the products refined from that crude. Diesel, jet fuel, gasoline and fertilisers all depend on those supply chains. Recent price movements illustrate how quickly those pressures can appear. Sulphur, an important ingredient in fertilizer production, has risen sharply. European natural gas prices, heating oil and U.S. diesel have also moved higher since the conflict intensified. The quoted price of a barrel of oil tells only part of the story. What matters just as much are the products inside that barrel and how disruptions work their way through the wider economy. Higher energy costs would arrive at a time when the global financial system is already carrying record levels of debt. That combination sits at the centre of the outlook. Global debt reached approximately $368 trillion last year, covering governments, households, corporations and financial institutions. According to the figures presented, the United States accounted for around $104 trillion of that total. The figures also point to a growing dependence on debt. For every dollar of economic growth generated in the United States, around $4.50 of additional debt was required. For the rest of the world, the ratio was considerably lower. Debt alone is not the concern. Attention is also drawn to the growing use of leverage throughout the financial system. Credit spreads remain close to cycle lows, consumer loans continue to be packaged into securities, and private credit has expanded rapidly over recent years. The comparison is not exact, but the parallels with 2008 are difficult to ignore. Then, highly rated securities concealed risks that many investors failed to recognize until markets began to unwind. The concern today is that leverage has once again become deeply embedded throughout the financial system. Whether those vulnerabilities result in a crisis cannot be known in advance. The expectation presented here is that 2027 will bring recessionary conditions, prompting another round of monetary and fiscal stimulus to support economic activity. The comparison is drawn with the years between 1978 and 1982, when inflation accelerated alongside rising interest rates. This time, monetary policy, higher energy costs and rising food prices are expected to reinforce one another, placing additional pressure on governments, businesses and consumers. At the same time, the U.S. dollar could weaken if confidence in the existing monetary system continues to erode. These conditions also raise questions about what comes next. The United States may seek to strengthen its financial system through stablecoins or another digital currency linked to government debt. China, meanwhile, continues to expand its gold and yuan infrastructure, reinforcing the role that gold could play within the international monetary system. This brings us to gold. THE REFUGE THAT GOLD PROVIDES Periods like these have historically increased the importance of liquidity, purchasing power and financial security. Within this outlook, physical gold is valued for the liquidity it can provide when needed… and for its ability to preserve purchasing power through periods of inflation and monetary instability. Wars and financial turmoils can’t always be avoided. Preparing for them begins with holding real wealth. KEY INSIGHTS 00:00 – 01:35 | The world order is changing The conflict involving Iran is presented as part of a broader shift from a U.S.-led world toward a multipolar system shaped by China, Russia and other nations. 01:36 – 04:05 | Why the Strait of Hormuz matters Control of key shipping routes could influence global oil flows, regional security and the balance of power in the Middle East. 04:06 – 06:07 | The hidden cost of the oil conflict The greater risk may lie inside the barrel, as shortages and rising prices for refined products work their way through the global economy. 06:08 – 08:10 | A financial system built on debt Record debt levels, growing leverage and similarities to 2008 raise questions about how resilient today’s financial system really is. 08:11 – 09:58 | Inflation and the next monetary reset Higher energy and food prices, rising inflation and competing monetary systems could define the years ahead. 09:59 – 10:35 | Gold remains the refuge Physical gold is presented as protection against inflation, currency weakness and financial instability. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

  3. Jul 30

    SILVER - LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY OR RUIN?

    Silver has fallen almost 50% from its historic high of $121.62 an ounce, reached in January 2026. For many investors, that looks like the end of the rally. But corrections like this have always been part of silver’s story. Truth is: Silver has never moved a straight line. Its biggest advances have almost always been interrupted by sharp corrections. But what makes this correction different? One measure receives particular attention: the gold-to-silver ratio. It compares the price of gold with the price of silver. When the ratio falls, that means silver is outperforming gold. The challenge is that most investors react to price. As the saying goes, “The majority of people love buying high and selling low.” Assets that have fallen out of favour attract little interest, while those making headlines quickly capture everyone’s attention. We can see that pattern in the way many people look at gold. Its performance is often judged by starting the chart in 1980, when it reached $850 an ounce, while overlooking its rise from just $35 in 1971. Silver deserves the same perspective. Despite this year’s correction, it has still more than doubled over the past few years. Looking only at the recent pullback overlooks the much larger move that came before it. That becomes even more relevant today. Stocks remain near record highs. Bonds continue to struggle with inflation. Governments around the world are carrying debts that become harder to repay every year. At the same time, central banks continue to accumulate gold, and major financial institutions are recommending much larger allocations than they were only a few years ago. Even JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has warned investors to “brace yourself” for an economic hurricane. So, “What should investors do with the rest of their portfolio?” Gold should still make up the majority of a precious metals holding. But with the correction reaching over 50%, silver now deserves a larger allocation than before. That’s why Egon’s advice is to buy silver with both hands. The path is unlikely to be smooth. But if the longer-term trend unfolds as expected, today’s prices may eventually look very different. KEY INSIGHTS 00:00 – 01:18 | Silver’s correction creates opportunity The recent pullback has strengthened the long-term case for silver despite its well-known volatility. 01:19 – 01:57 | Silver could outperform gold A falling gold-to-silver ratio could allow silver to rise two to three times faster than gold. 01:58 – 03:46 | Most investors buy at the wrong time Investors often ignore precious metals when prices are low and become interested only after strong rallies. 03:47 – 04:19 | Silver’s long-term case remains intact Investment demand, industrial demand, and market fundamentals continue to support silver. 04:20 – 05:50 | Where else can investors turn? Growing risks in stocks, bonds, debt, and paper currencies are strengthening the case for precious metals. 05:51 – 06:34 | Gold and silver protect wealth Physical precious metals are presented as a way to preserve purchasing power through monetary uncertainty. 06:35 – 07:32 | Gold first, silver second Gold remains the core holding, while silver offers greater upside for investors who can tolerate its volatility. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

  4. Jul 15

    TWO MAJOR DISASTERS TO HIT THE GOLD PRICE

    “Every single money or currency has gone to zero in history.” The current monetary system is heading toward the same fate. Since the U.S. ended the dollar’s link to gold in 1971, currencies have already lost about 99% of their value against gold. The remaining decline could happen much faster than the first 99%. Governments usually describe inflation as rising prices. But that’s the wrong way to explain it. Inflation begins when governments borrow beyond their means, run persistent deficits, and create more money. As each unit of currency loses purchasing power, it takes more of it to buy the same goods and services. During the 1970s, the United Kingdom experienced several years of double-digit inflation. Between 1974 and 1979, inflation averaged 15.7% a year and reached 24.2% in 1975. It was a clear example of how quickly purchasing power can erode once governments lose control of their finances. The same pattern has appeared repeatedly over the centuries. One of the earliest examples was the Roman denarius. Around 180 AD, the coin contained almost 100% silver. By about 280 AD, its silver content had fallen to almost nothing. The denarius was no longer a silver coin but one made largely from base metals. It later happened in France during the early 1700s, in the Weimar Republic in the 1920s, in Zimbabwe, and in Yugoslavia. The effect becomes clearer when wealth is measured in gold rather than paper currency. A typical house in the United States cost about $6,700 in 1926, when gold traded at just over $20 an ounce. That worked out to 327 ounces of gold. A hundred years later, a similar house costs about $514,000. In dollar terms, the price has increased sharply. In gold, however, it has fallen to about 126 ounces. The same comparison can be made with a cow. Looking back about 5,000 years, the amount of gold needed to buy one has generally remained between half an ounce and one ounce. Unlike paper currencies, cows cannot be manufactured. They take time to raise and represent a tangible asset. That is why measuring wealth in currencies that lose purchasing power can give a very different picture from measuring it in gold. “We’re going to have two devastating events hitting us in the next few years. They have already started.” The first to get hit is the purchasing power of paper currencies. Next are financial assets. According to Egon, decades of debt expansion and money creation have inflated stocks, bonds, and property. One measure of those valuations is the Buffett Indicator, which compares the value of the stock market with the size of the economy. Today, the U.S. stock market is valued at more than twice the country’s annual GDP. According to the transcript, that level is unlikely to be sustained for very long. Another way to view the market is by measuring stocks against gold. In 1980, the Dow Jones Index and the gold price were both around 850, giving a ratio of one to one. By 2000, that ratio had climbed to about 45 as stocks outperformed gold over the previous two decades. Since then, gold has outperformed the Dow, bringing the ratio down to around 12 today. If the ratio returned to one, both the Dow Jones Index and the gold price could stand at 10,000. That would represent a decline of more than 90% in the Dow when measured against gold. Large losses become much harder to recover from. A portfolio that loses 90% of its value requires a 900% gain simply to return to where it started. After the decline between 1929 and 1932, the Dow Jones took twenty-five years to recover its previous peak. Neither trend guarantees a particular outcome. But if both continue to unfold, preserving purchasing power may become increasingly important in the years ahead. Gold and silver have been the exceptions because they cannot be printed or manufactured. For that reason, they remain central to any discussion about long-term wealth preservation. KEY INSIGHTS 00:00 – 02:25 | Why currencies eventually lose purchasing power Why every paper currency has eventually failed, the end of the gold standard in 1971, and why inflation begins with the decline in the value of money. 02:26 – 03:21 | The long history of currency debasement How the Roman denarius, together with examples from France, Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe and Yugoslavia, illustrates the recurring consequences of excessive debt and money creation. 03:22 – 06:28 | Measuring wealth in gold instead of paper currency Why houses, currencies and even cattle tell a different story when wealth is measured in gold rather than paper money. 06:29 – 08:08 | Two disasters already underway How continued currency debasement and decades of money creation have led to rising inflation and an asset bubble across stocks, bonds and property. 08:09 – 10:55 | Measuring stocks against gold How the Buffett Indicator and the Dow-to-Gold Ratio suggest that U.S. equities have become historically expensive relative to gold, and why the ratio could continue falling. 10:56 – 13:15 | Wealth preservation in an era of declining purchasing power Why recovering from large investment losses can take decades, and why the discussion concludes by focusing on preserving wealth through gold and silver. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

  5. Jul 10

    THE GOLD TRUTH FEW WISH TO SEE

    Gold has risen strongly over the past few years while technology stocks have captured most of investors’ attention. At a glance, it appears that stocks have created the real wealth, while gold has simply kept pace with inflation. Matthew Piepenburg argues that this conclusion depends on how wealth is measured. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the S&P 500 has gained roughly 60% when measured in U.S. dollars. Measure the same index in gold, however, and it has lost around 40%. The result changes because the value of the dollar has changed. If the currency used to measure financial assets steadily loses purchasing power, returns expressed in that currency can tell a very different story from returns measured in gold. The same question extends beyond stock markets. It also appears in the way central banks manage their reserves. For decades, U.S. Treasuries served as the world’s primary reserve asset and the preferred form of collateral across the financial system. Since 2014, central banks have steadily reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasuries while increasing their purchases of physical gold. The freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 accelerated that trend. Many still hold substantial dollar reserves, but they are adding gold at a much faster pace than before. Annual central bank buying now stands several times higher than it did before 2022, with countries such as China, Poland and Kazakhstan continuing to add to their reserves. At the same time, foreign ownership of U.S. government debt has continued to fall. Debt remains at the center of the story. Global debt has continued to rise while interest rates remain far higher than they were for most of the past decade. Financing that debt has become increasingly expensive, placing growing pressure on public finances. History suggests that governments carrying debt on this scale rarely rely on austerity or widespread defaults. More often, they respond with monetary expansion, allowing currencies to lose purchasing power over time. That is the environment in which gold continues to attract long-term demand. Unlike government debt, gold is no one's liability. It cannot be created through monetary policy and has served as trusted collateral across centuries of monetary change. Short-term price movements will always attract attention, but the broader question remains the same: “As debt continues to grow, what happens to the purchasing power of the currencies used to service it?” KEY INSIGHTS 00:00 – 03:19 | Looking beyond the gold price Gold’s recent correction, long-term performance, and why measuring returns in gold can tell a different story than measuring them in dollars. 03:20 – 05:35 | Gold replaces paper collateral The steady rise in central bank gold purchases and the declining role of U.S. Treasuries in global reserves. 05:36 – 06:57 | Debt changes the outlook for gold Record government debt, the limits of higher interest rates, and the long-term effect of currency debasement. 06:58 – 08:59 | Gold’s place in the monetary system Gold’s role as a store of purchasing power while debt and money creation continue to expand. 09:00 – 10:29 | Measuring wealth in real terms Why gold offers a different perspective on wealth than paper currencies during periods of monetary change. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

  6. Jul 6

    WHY THE PRECIOUS METALS CORRECTION IS A GOLDEN GIFT

    For most investors, a 25% correction in the gold price is unsettling. It’s well beyond what many would consider a normal pullback, and enough to make some wonder whether the bull market has already run its course. But gold has never moved in a straight line. Every major bull market has included periods where prices fell sharply before recovering. Gold rose 65% during 2025, one of its strongest annual performances in decades. Over the past five years, it has gained 128%. Seen in that context, the recent decline looks very different. History points in the same direction. During the inflationary bull market of the 1970s, gold experienced five corrections of more than 20%. Between 1974 and 1976, the price fell by roughly half before going on to rise sevenfold into its 1980 peak. Those corrections were part of the bull market, not the end of it. Short-term price movements often reflect changing expectations around interest rates and the U.S. dollar. The recent correction has coincided with a stronger dollar and higher real interest rates, both of which have historically weighed on gold prices. Periods of higher real rates have also appeared near major peaks in equity markets. In 2000, rising real rates coincided with the collapse of the technology bubble. Today’s stock market is again heavily concentrated in a small number of companies, raising questions about how long current valuations can be sustained. Meanwhile, central banks continue adding gold to their reserves. Although a handful of countries reportedly sold gold during the Iran conflict to raise liquidity, overall central bank demand remains intact. Gold holdings now exceed their holdings of U.S. Treasuries. The broader backdrop has changed very little. Government debt continues to grow, inflation remains persistent, and highly indebted governments have limited room to tolerate higher borrowing costs. One way to view that imbalance is through the relationship between U.S. gold reserves and government debt. During the Second World War, the value of U.S. gold reserves represented about 51% of the federal debt. By 1980, that figure had fallen to around 18%. Today, it is approximately 2.8%. If gold represented the same share of federal debt that it did in 1980, the implied price would be roughly $26,000 per ounce. Matching the Second World War level would imply around $75,000 per ounce. The purpose of the comparison is not to predict a future gold price. It illustrates how rapidly debt has expanded relative to the nation’s gold reserves. The same pattern appears when comparing gold with global equity markets. The value of all above-ground gold currently represents about 18% of the total global stock market capitalization. Over the past 120 years, that figure has averaged closer to 40%. Returning to that long-term average would imply a substantially higher gold price than today’s level. Corrections are part of every long-term bull market. What tends to matter more is whether the forces behind that market have changed. Debt levels continue to rise across the world’s largest economies. Inflation has proven difficult to bring back to target, and governments carrying record debt burdens have limited options if borrowing costs remain elevated. History shows that heavily indebted governments eventually choose lower interest rates and more money creation over allowing debt servicing costs to spiral higher. That process may support asset prices in nominal terms, but it comes at the expense of the purchasing power of paper currencies. The recent correction has changed the price of gold. It has done little to change the conditions that have supported it for years. KEY INSIGHTS 00:00 – 01:31 | Putting the 25% correction into perspective Gold’s recent pullback, long-term performance, and how previous bull markets have experienced similar corrections. 01:32 – 02:38 | Why gold corrected A stronger dollar, higher real interest rates, stock market concentration, and continued central bank buying. 02:39 – 04:20 | Gold versus government debt How U.S. gold reserves compare with federal debt and what previous levels of debt backing imply. 04:21 – 05:06 | Gold versus global stock markets Gold’s share of global equity market value compared with its long-term historical average. 05:07 – 05:37 | Corrections within secular bull markets Historical drawdowns during the 1970s and why they did not end the long-term uptrend. 05:38 – 06:23 | Debt, money printing, and fiat currencies Why heavily indebted governments resort to monetary expansion and what that means for paper currencies. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

  7. Jun 30

    SILVER'S HIDDEN CRISIS

    The silver market has continued to function for years despite persistent supply deficits. Industrial demand kept growing. More silver was being consumed than mined. Yet physical shortages never became severe enough to force a major repricing. China may have been central to that flow of silver. Large amounts of silver doré were shipped to China for refining before finding their way back into global markets. The steady flow of metal helped keep physical silver available while allowing producers to hedge future output in financial markets. But trade tensions between the United States and China may have marked a turning point. After the United States imposed higher tariffs, China tightened restrictions on rare earth exports and related technologies. Silver was also added to the U.S. list of minerals considered important for defence and advanced manufacturing. China now appears to be importing more silver while releasing less back into international markets. Within weeks, lease rates in London’s silver market rose sharply, and silver prices began moving higher. If more silver remains inside China, less metal is available to the rest of the world. Silver supply depends on more than silver mines More than half of global silver production comes as a by-product of copper and nickel mining. Those industries rely heavily on sulphuric acid during the refining process. Disruptions to the supply of sulphuric acid can eventually reduce silver production, even if demand remains unchanged. Supply chains have become more fragile in recent months. The conflict involving Iran disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest trade routes. Around the same period, China suspended sulphuric acid exports. Australian manufacturers reported supply shortages, while refiners warned that obtaining the chemicals needed for processing metals was becoming increasingly difficult. If copper and nickel production slows, silver output is likely to decline as well because so much of it is produced alongside those metals. Industrial demand continues to grow through electronics, solar panels, and defence applications. At the same time, precious metals are attracting renewed attention as concerns about debt, inflation, and currencies continue. Gold has received most of that attention. Silver has not. Historically, silver has often followed gold, although with much larger price swings because its market is considerably smaller. The market could now be influenced by two long-term trends. Physical supply may become tighter if China continues accumulating silver while mining output slows. Monetary demand may also increase as investors look for assets that cannot be created through monetary expansion. Neither trend guarantees higher prices. If both continue to develop, the silver market could behave very differently from the way it has for much of the past decade. KEY INSIGHTS 00:00 – 02:56 | How China kept silver prices under pressure The long-standing role of China in refining silver, managing global supply, and influencing silver pricing. 02:57 – 05:35 | Why China’s silver policy changed Trade tensions, critical mineral designation, and China’s growing silver imports reshape the global supply picture. 05:36 – 08:07 | A growing constraint on silver production How sulphuric acid shortages and disruptions to copper and nickel refining could reduce future silver supply. 08:08 – 09:46 | Silver’s industrial and monetary role Why silver serves both modern industry and as a monetary metal with a long history across Asia. 09:47 – 10:38 | Physical demand is tightening the market Growing industrial demand, reduced Western liquidity, and China’s accumulation of silver. 10:39 – 11:00 | Why silver could move faster than gold Silver’s smaller market, stronger price swings, and its role as an accessible monetary metal. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

  8. Jun 24

    THE FINAL SIX YEARS OF A 100-YEAR CYCLE

    Economic and political developments often dominate discussions about the future. An election result. A central bank decision. A conflict in the Middle East. A shift in trade policy. These developments attract attention because they are visible. They dominate headlines, move markets, and shape investor sentiment. Yet some of the forces that shape history unfold over much longer periods. Simon Hunt believes we may now be entering one of those periods. His outlook is built around the Benner Cycle, a chart first published more than 150 years ago. While many investors dismiss long-term cycle analysis, Hunt argues that the Benner Cycle has tracked major turning points with surprising accuracy. The chart identifies 2026 as a peak and points toward 2032 as the end of a 100-year cycle that began during the depths of the Great Depression. The years ahead are unlikely to follow a straight path. Hunt expects a series of shorter cycles marked by recessions, inflationary periods, rallies, and booms before the cycle finally ends in a bust. To understand why, he begins with geopolitics. Recent discussions surrounding Iran have received considerable attention, particularly after repeated claims that a new agreement may be close. Iran has rejected those claims, but Hunt believes the larger story lies elsewhere. He points to recent meetings involving Russia, China, and Iran as signs of a broader shift taking place across the world. In his view, the world is moving from a unipolar system toward a multipolar one. This transition remains in its early stages, but Hunt believes it will define much of the next six years. In June, Iran announced the creation of a security belt stretching from the Strait of Hormuz through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and into the Red Sea. Hunt interprets this as a declaration that Iran and its allies intend to exert greater influence over oil flows leaving the Middle East. Energy remains one of the most important inputs in the global economy. Changes in supply, transportation, and pricing eventually work their way through manufacturing, agriculture and consumer markets. Against that backdrop, Hunt expects the current market correction to continue in the months ahead before giving way to a substantial relief rally. Using the S&P 500 as a guide, he believes equities could eventually climb toward 8,500. At the same time, he expects recessionary conditions to develop in the United States and much of the rest of the world by the end of the year, with recession extending through much of 2027. Financial markets and the real economy do not always move in the same direction at the same time. But the period after 2027 is where Hunt sees the greatest risks. His view is that a renewed inflationary surge could mark the years between 2028 and 2032. Part of that expectation comes from fiscal and monetary policy, but he also points to rising food prices, fertilizer shortages, and weather-related disruptions. Particular attention is given to the effects of a Super El Niño on Asian food production and the longer-term Gleissberg weather cycle. Taken together, these factors could place additional pressure on global food supplies at a time when energy markets are already under strain. Hunt compares the period ahead to the inflationary environment experienced between 1978 and 1982. At the same time, the contest between a unipolar and multipolar world is expected to intensify. Iran, in particular, could assume a far more prominent role in global affairs because of its influence over Middle Eastern energy routes. For Hunt, these developments are not separate stories. They form part of the same transition. Economic pressures, geopolitical shifts, inflation, and monetary policy are all unfolding within the final years of a century-long cycle. This brings us to gold. THE SECURITY THAT GOLD PROVIDES Hunt argues that periods of weakness should be viewed as buying opportunities, not simply because of inflation, but because gold serves as a form of security during periods of political, monetary, and economic change. If the U.S. dollar declines by 50% between 2028 and 2032, as he expects, then gold should reach at least $10,000 by 2032. Whether that forecast proves correct remains to be seen. What matters is the broader point. The next six years may not simply mark the end of another market cycle. They may mark the end of a century-long era. KEY INSIGHTS 00:00 – 00:46 | The final six years have begun A 150-year-old cycle chart points to 2026 as a major peak and 2032 as the end of a 100-year cycle. 00:47 – 02:42 | Multipolarity is replacing unipolarity The balance of power is moving away from a U.S.-led system toward a world increasingly shaped by China, Russia, Iran, and other regional powers. 02:43 – 04:03 | Recession comes before the next rally A market correction and a global recession could unfold through 2027 before equities stage a significant recovery. 04:04 – 05:34 | Lower rates may come before money printing Interest rates could fall first as governments refinance debt before policymakers turn back to monetary stimulus. 05:35 – 06:56 | Inflation returns between 2028 and 2032 Food shortages, higher energy prices, fertilizer constraints, and weather disruptions could drive a new inflationary cycle. 06:57 – 07:23 | The battle between two world orders The years ahead may be defined by the struggle between the existing unipolar system and an emerging multipolar one. 07:24 – 07:32 | Gold protects against the final phase Gold is presented as protection against inflation, currency weakness, and the economic instability expected in the years ahead. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit vongreyerz.substack.com

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vongreyerz.substack.com Welcome to THE VON GREYERZ PERSPECTIVE — the unapologetic podcast from Egon von Greyerz and Matthew Piepenburg of VON GREYERZ AG. In an era of monetary distortion, market manipulation, and media spin, this show cuts through the noise with hard-hitting conversations on gold, macroeconomics, and wealth preservation. Von Greyerz and Piepenburg bring decades of experience and unfiltered insight into systemic risk, central bank policy, and the role of precious metals in safeguarding real wealth. If you're seeking clarity, not comfort — and truth, not trend — you're in the right place. vongreyerz.substack.com

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