Oil Ground Up

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Rory Johnston navigates listeners through the financial market dynamics of the world's oil and gas sector. Get the latest fundamentals behind the price action and hear from industry experts from the field and from the corporate offices of the world's leading energy producers.

3d ago

Hormuz, Diesel & the Return of the Geopolitical Risk Premium

What happens when geopolitical risk stops being theoretical and begins physically reshaping global oil flows?On this episode of Oil Ground Up, Rory Johnston is joined by Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler, for a wide-ranging discussion on the collision between geopolitics, energy policy and physical commodity markets. Drawing on a career spanning power, natural gas, oil trading and hedge funds, Michelle explains how she now works at the intersection of market data and government policy—and why understanding the consequences of policy decisions has become increasingly important for energy markets.The conversation begins with the return of the geopolitical risk premium in oil. Michelle argues that the shale revolution fundamentally changed how markets priced geopolitical disruptions, creating years in which supply shocks from Libya, Russia, the Middle East and elsewhere struggled to sustain higher prices. Today, she believes that dynamic is changing.Rory and Michelle then tackle the debate surrounding Kpler's Strait of Hormuz tanker data. Michelle explains how Kpler combines AIS, satellite imagery and people at ports to track vessels. Despite flows approaching pre-war levels, product exports remain constrained, U.S. naval escorts are not a sustainable long-term solution, and confidence in the Strait has yet to be fully restored.The discussion then turns to the increasingly acute global diesel shortage and the limited options available to policymakers. Could Europe release strategic diesel inventories? Could China increase product exports? Could shipping regulations be temporarily relaxed to free additional diesel supply? And could the Trump administration restrict U.S. diesel exports—or use them as leverage to pressure Europe into releasing its own inventories?Michelle lays out the potential consequences of each option and explains why she sees an outright U.S. diesel export ban as less likely than Washington using energy as a form of economic statecraft. She assigns a 50% probability to the U.S. pressuring Europe to release more inventories, 25% to an export ban and 25% to allowing the market to solve the imbalance itself.This is a deep dive into oil markets, diesel, Hormuz, tanker tracking, strategic reserves and the increasingly complicated relationship between energy markets and geopolitics.
Sep 11

Keystone XL Is Back—But North America’s Oil Map Has Changed

North America is suddenly facing a wave of new oil pipeline proposals—but which projects actually make commercial sense, and which are being driven by energy security and geopolitics? On this episode of Oil Ground Up, Rory Johnston is joined by Rob Wilson, President of East Daley Analytics, for a deep dive into the rapidly changing North American oil infrastructure landscape. They begin with the latest resurrection of Keystone XL and explain how the proposed Prairie Connector and Bridger Pipeline system could move more Canadian crude through Cushing and ultimately toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. Wilson explains why the project has commercial backing—and how adding more Canadian heavy crude could displace lighter U.S. barrels and create new infrastructure constraints elsewhere in the system. The conversation expands into the growing competition between commercially driven pipelines and strategically motivated projects. Rory and Rob discuss Trans Mountain expansion opportunities, Enbridge Mainline optimization, a potential new Canadian West Coast pipeline, and whether Canada can realistically produce enough incremental oil to fill all the proposed capacity. They also examine the return of Venezuelan heavy crude and whether it poses a meaningful threat to Canadian barrels in U.S. refineries. Wilson argues that existing pipeline infrastructure makes Canadian crude difficult to displace in the Midwest, while Venezuelan supply is more likely to compete with Mexican, Colombian and Middle Eastern heavy barrels on the Gulf Coast. Finally, the discussion turns to the Permian Basin, where Rob sees a potentially overlooked problem developing. While enormous amounts of natural gas takeaway capacity have been built, crude pipeline additions have lagged. If high oil prices accelerate Permian production, existing pipelines could approach their limits and create a new crude egress bottleneck as early as 2027.
Aug 28

The Oil Market Is Tighter Than It Looks | David Wech

Rory Johnston returns to Oil Ground Up with David Wech, Chief Economist at Vortexa, for a deep dive into one of the most complicated oil markets in recent memory. With crude and refined products moving through increasingly opaque trade routes, Rory and David examine what tanker data is actually telling us about oil on water, the Strait of Hormuz, Russian exports, diesel shortages, China and the changing global flow of barrels. David explains why the global market can simultaneously have plenty of theoretical crude supply while still experiencing severe regional shortages and logistical bottlenecks. They discuss declining U.S. crude exports, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining and export infrastructure, and why diesel may currently be the tightest part of the entire oil complex. The conversation then turns to China, where rising refinery utilization and product exports could be bearish for diesel while increasing China's demand for crude. David also explains how the loss of Iranian barrels, competition for Russian crude, and reduced Atlantic Basin flows into Asia could create another period of significant crude tightness if Middle Eastern exports fail to recover as expected. Finally, Rory and David dig into the challenge of tracking “dark” tanker movements through Hormuz, why short-term transit estimates can be misleading, and the emergence of a shuttle-tanker system moving crude out of the Persian Gulf. David lays out his outlook for the coming months—including the possibility that renewed geopolitical escalation could collide with an Asian market increasingly positioned for higher Middle Eastern supply.
Jul 15

Jeff Currie: Everything You Know About Oil Markets Is Wrong

Jeff Currie joins Rory Johnston on the Oil Ground Up Podcast for a wide-ranging conversation on commodity price discovery, the changing structure of energy markets, and why today's geopolitical environment is unlike anything investors have faced in decades. Together they examine the aftermath of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the disconnect between crude oil and refined product markets, and why volatility—not price direction—has become the defining feature of modern commodity investing. Jeff also shares his long-term outlook on deglobalization, energy security, electrification, and the structural forces he believes will continue to reshape global commodity markets for years to come. It's an insightful discussion that blends macroeconomics, market structure, and real-world trading experience to explain what comes next for oil and commodities.
Jul 9

The Fragile Peace Reshaping Global Oil Markets

Gregory Brew returns to the Oil Ground Up Podcast to examine the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and what it means for global energy markets. Gregory and Rory Johnston discuss the fragile status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's shifting negotiating strategy, the future of U.S. involvement in the Persian Gulf, and why shipping flows remain well below pre-war levels despite the end of active hostilities. The conversation also explores the internal dynamics of Iran's new leadership, the role of Israel in shaping the next phase of regional tensions, and why the current period may represent a long-term transition rather than a return to the old status quo. Finally, they consider what this new geopolitical reality means for oil prices, global supply chains, and the growing risk premium facing energy markets over the coming years.
Jun 23

Why Oil Tankers Still Are Not Returning to the Strait of Hormuz

Rory Johnston welcomes maritime historian and shipping expert Dr. Sal Mercogliano to Oil Ground Up for a deep dive into the evolving Strait of Hormuz crisis and what it means for global oil markets. Together, they examine why commercial shipping ground to a halt, how tanker operators are weighing risk versus reward, and why reopening one of the world's most important energy chokepoints is far more complicated than simply declaring it open. The conversation also explores Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the challenges of clearing sea mines, crew shortages, and the logistical hurdles that could keep oil flows below pre-conflict levels for months. Sal explains why shipping—not just oil prices—holds the key to understanding the next phase of this geopolitical crisis, and why supply chains may never return to the way they were before the conflict began.
May 29

Bob McNally on Hormuz, Oil Prices, and the End of Energy Security Assumptions

Rory Johnston welcomes legendary energy analyst Bob McNally to Oil Ground Up for a sweeping conversation on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, global oil supply disruptions, and the fragile state of today’s energy markets. Bob reflects on decades of experience spanning the White House, hedge funds, and energy consulting while explaining why the closure of Hormuz represents a historic shift in how the world must think about oil security and geopolitical risk. The discussion dives deep into Iran’s leverage over global energy flows, the growing disconnect between physical oil fundamentals and financial markets, and why many traders may still be underestimating the long-term consequences of this disruption. Rory and Bob also explore what reopening Hormuz could realistically look like, why inventories and shipping flows remain critical, and how this crisis may permanently reshape investment in global hydrocarbons. From oil demand destruction and rising geopolitical premiums to the future of North American energy dominance, this episode offers one of the most comprehensive macro discussions yet on the evolving global energy landscape.
May 22

How Iran Weaponized the World’s Most Important Oil Chokepoint

Edward Fishman joins Rory for a sweeping conversation on the evolution of modern economic warfare, the origins of U.S. sanctions strategy against Iran, and how today’s Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global energy markets in real time. Drawing from his book Choke Points, Fishman explains how sanctions, secondary sanctions, and financial pressure campaigns evolved from quiet Treasury Department diplomacy into one of America’s most powerful geopolitical tools. The discussion also explores why oil prices have remained surprisingly subdued despite major supply disruptions, including the role of Trump’s public interventions, market psychology, and the growing belief that geopolitical risk no longer guarantees an oil price spike. Rory and Eddie debate whether Iran has permanently changed the balance of power in the Persian Gulf by effectively institutionalizing control over the Strait of Hormuz and what that means for global trade, shipping, and future sanctions policy. The conversation revisits the Obama-era sanctions campaign, the collapse of the JCPOA, the rise of shadow fleets and sanctions evasion, and how both China and Iran have adapted to years of American economic pressure. From nuclear negotiations and frozen Iranian assets to tanker tolls, oil inventories, and the limits of American power, this episode connects decades of economic statecraft to the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape investors face today.

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Rory Johnston navigates listeners through the financial market dynamics of the world's oil and gas sector. Get the latest fundamentals behind the price action and hear from industry experts from the field and from the corporate offices of the world's leading energy producers.