Decision Desk HQ Podcast

Decision Desk HQ
  • 4.8 (8)
  • Politics
  • Updated Weekly

Every day is Election Day. Our weekly show talks votes, polls, trends, campaigns, and more. A show by election nerds for fellow election nerds, novices, and everyone in between. decisiondeskhq.substack.com

  1. 1d ago

    Episode 46: Can Susan Collins survive in Maine? Can Sherrod Brown flip Ohio?

    With the midterms rapidly approaching, this episode of the Decision Desk HQ podcast features not one, but two, guests! In the first part, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley chats with Jeremy Pelzer, the chief politics reporter of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, about the state's highly competitive Senate and gubernatorial elections. Ohio is one of the key swing states Democrats need to flip to win back the Senate. Data centers have emerged as a key issue in this campaign, and outside spending has been high. In the second half, he talks with Michael Shepherd, the political editor at the Bangor Daily News. They take a deep dive into Maine's contentious Senate race, where longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is facing a tough national environment. Democrat Troy Jackson, the replacement for Graham Platner, is polling about even with Collins in what has become a must-win for both parties. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Jeremy Pelzer on X: https://x.com/jpelzer► Michael Shepherd on X: https://x.com/mikeshepherdME► Bangor Daily News: https://bangordailynews.com► Cleveland Plain Dealer: https://cleveland.com---► DDHQ VOTES: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS2:00: Introducing Jeremy Pelzer and Ohio's elections11:05 Jon Husted, Sherrod Brown, and data centers19:15 Outside spending21:07 Governor election34:35: Introducing Mike Shepherd and Maine's elections38:04 Can Susan Collins overperform again?54:16 Troy Jackson's record and campaign1:01:52 Governor race This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 46: Can Susan Collins survive in Maine? Can Sherrod Brown flip Ohio?

  2. Sep 25

    Episode 45: Could Talarico Really Turn Texas Blue? With Gabby Birenbaum from The Texas Tribune

    Just two years after voting for President Trump by nearly 14 percentage points, Texas has become an unexpected frontline swing state. The Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has drawn national attention, with polls and the DDHQ forecast both showing Talarico with a lead. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, but this may be their best chance since 2018.In this podcast, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley discusses the Texas Senate and gubernatorial elections with Gabby Birenbaum, Washington correspondent for The Texas Tribune.---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Gabby Birenbaum on X: https://x.com/birenbomb► The Texas Tribune: https://www.texastribune.org---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS1:25 Introducing Gabby Birenbaum3:35 Latino voters and Texas in 202610:06 Talarico and suburban voters15:43 Paxton’s challenges18:42 Fundraising, spending, and polling24:10 Texas governor and the rise of Hinojosa29:48 Key issue: data centers35:07 Downballot consequences of these races37:28 What would a Talarico win mean? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 45: Could Talarico Really Turn Texas Blue? With Gabby Birenbaum from The Texas Tribune

  3. Sep 18

    Episode 44: SCOTUS Blocks Trump’s Vote-By-Mail Order + Missouri’s Map Mess, with Nathaniel Rakich from Votebeat

    With all primaries done and dusted, it is now indisputably general election time. But we have two late developments that will affect the 2026 electoral picture. First, Republicans had drawn a new gerrymander in Missouri, but a series of federal and state court decisions appear likely to restore the state’s old, less GOP-leaning congressional lines. Second, the Supreme Court blocked President Donald Trump’s executive order to restrict mail voting. Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley discussed these two developments with Nathaniel Rakich, the managing editor of Votebeat. Votebeat is a nonpartisan news site devoted to covering the nuts and bolts of how elections and voting work in the United States. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Nathaniel Rakich on X: https://x.com/baseballot► Votebeat: votebeat.org► Votebeat newsletters: https://www.votebeat.org/newsletters/---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS0:41 Introducing Nathaniel Rakich & our topics2:31 Missouri’s redistricting saga10:19 Republicans’ last-ditch effort in Missouri15:23 A red-state redistricting veto referendum23:59 Missouri’s other big ballot initiative27:41 SCOTUS blocks President Trump’s executive order32:10 The executive order and how people vote38:57 Other election issues Votebeat is monitoring This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 44: SCOTUS Blocks Trump’s Vote-By-Mail Order + Missouri’s Map Mess, with Nathaniel Rakich from Votebeat

  4. Sep 14

    Decision Desk HQ 2026 Post-Labor Day Forecast Update, with Chris Cillizza

    DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. The race for the Senate is now a coin flip, so we discussed some of the key races there, including Texas and Iowa. We also touched on Missouri’s redistricting situation. We’ll be doing regular updates about the forecast with Chris every couple of weeks from now and until the election, so be on the lookout for future chats! ► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq --- CHAPTERS 1:29 How does the forecast work4:10 The Senate is a dead heat8:58 Democrats still favored in the House13:40 Audience asks: Talarico (D) favored in Texas Senate?20:42 Audience asks: Hinson (R) favored in Iowa Senate?24:29 Audience asks: GOP more secure in Florida Senate?32:30 Audience asks: Independent have path in South Dakota Senate?39:02 Audience asks: Missouri’s redistricting situation This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Decision Desk HQ 2026 Post-Labor Day Forecast Update, with Chris Cillizza

  5. Sep 10

    Episode 43: DDHQ’s Governors Forecast!

    Midterms aren’t just about the race for Congress. Thirty-six states will also elect their governors, making this the main venue for deciding who will lead most of the 50 states. With this in mind, Decision Desk HQ recently added a gubernatorial forecast to better gauge what’s happening in these important races. Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell and Data Science intern Jake Marks to talk about the new forecast. They discussed how it works and dug into what the forecast says about 2026’s most competitive and interesting gubernatorial contests. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Governor Forecast: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/governor► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq --- CHAPTERS2:16 Introducing Madison, Jake, and the 2026 map3:57 Governor vs. Senate dynamics, highlighting Texas10:05 Role of prediction markets in governor forecast17:10 Generic ballot and the electoral environment19:45 Candidate quality and Oregon’s race23:43 Georgia: polls vs. Rick Jackson’s money31:05 Kansas: the GOP’s best pickup chance35:55 Iowa: A Dem governor-GOP Senate split?40:57 Nevada: Gov. Joe Lombardo has slight edge43:46 Ohio: Polls and markets suggest Democrats have a shot48:12 Alaska: Multiple candidates from same party This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 43: DDHQ’s Governors Forecast!

  6. Sep 4

    Episode 42: Understanding Modern Campaigns, with Eric Wilson from Center for Campaign Innovation

    Three decades ago, Bob Dole’s 1996 bid for the White House became the first presidential campaign to have a website. But nowadays, campaigns use a huge range of tools to engage supporters, raise money, win over persuadable voters, and gain an edge over their competitors. To discuss some challenges faced by modern campaigns, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Eric Wilson, the executive director of the Center for Campaign Innovation. The Center puts together regular reports, including conducting its own field experiments, about how technological innovations can help campaigns. Eric is himself a veteran of many political campaigns, and he also runs the Campaign Trend newsletter.---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Eric Wilson on X: https://x.com/ericwilson► Center for Campaign Innovation: https://campaigninnovation.org/► Campaign Trend newsletter: https://campaigntrend.com---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s DISCORD: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS1:42 Introducing Eric Wilson, Center for Campaign Innovation3:52 Changing digital space around campaigns6:44 Social media, authenticity & campaign work (Mamdani vs. Pratt)10:45 Differences between the parties’ use of digital tools15:31 Democrats’ current edge in email deliverability 25:27 Field experiment in direct mail to boost GOP turn out31:58 Text messaging to make canvassing more effective36:44 Looking for any edge & maximizing campaign efficiencies This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 42: Understanding Modern Campaigns, with Eric Wilson from Center for Campaign Innovation

  7. Aug 27

    Episode 41: Are Senate Polls Overrating Democrats’ Chances? With Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights

    Democrats have closed the gap in Decision Desk HQ’s Senate forecast. Their chances have particularly been boosted by strong polls in red-leaning states like Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa. But is there reason to doubt some of this positive polling news for Democrats?To dig into that question, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at the Republican firm Echelon Insights. Patrick recently published an analysis on his Substack, The Intersection, that found Senate polls in recent cycles have tended to overstate Democratic performance relative to the final outcome — especially in some of the red-leaning states that Democrats need to win. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Patrick Ruffini on X: https://x.com/PatrickRuffini► The Intersection on Substack: https://patrickruffini.com/---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN DDHQ’s OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq ---CHAPTERS1:35 Introducing Patrick and his findings7:00 Error in midterms vs. presidential cycles13:45 Competitive races with more polling aren’t immune16:20 The redder the state, the worst the error19:24 Potential demographic explanations for error27:20 Error by state: Texas, Ohio, and elsewhere31:12 What this could mean for the 2026 Senate map36:10 What to make of Alaska43:05 Maine and Susan Collins, the overperformer This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 41: Are Senate Polls Overrating Democrats’ Chances? With Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights

  8. Aug 20

    Decision Desk HQ 2026 Forecast Update Convo for late August, with Chris Cillizza

    DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was nice enough to have two members of the DDHQ team on a Substack Live conversation about our 2026 election forecast. Chris was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Science Fellow Maddisen Murrell to talk about the big picture and some specific U.S. Senate and U.S. House races. We’ll be doing this regularly every couple of weeks from now and until the election, so be on the lookout for more updates! ► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq --- CHAPTERS 1:00 How does the forecast work8:05 The overall Senate picture11:50 Probability and range of outcomes in the Senate forecast17:07 Six key races in Maine, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Michigan22:00 The overall House picture25:34 Polling averages and credible polls28:06 Use of prediction markets30:05 Audience questions This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Decision Desk HQ 2026 Forecast Update Convo for late August, with Chris Cillizza
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4.8
out of 5
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About

Every day is Election Day. Our weekly show talks votes, polls, trends, campaigns, and more. A show by election nerds for fellow election nerds, novices, and everyone in between. decisiondeskhq.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    Decision Desk HQ
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    56
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Decision Desk HQ
  • Show Website
    Decision Desk HQ Podcast

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