The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo: Interest Rates, FOMC Meetings, and Monetary Policy

Fexingo

Lucas and Luna dissect the Federal Reserve's every move—from FOMC rate decisions and dot-plot projections to the arcane mechanics of open market operations. Each episode opens with a live data snapshot: the current fed funds rate, Treasury yield curve slope, and the latest reading on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE). Then they argue over what the data actually means. Should the market price in a cut? Is QT about to end? Why did one regional Fed president break with the consensus? The conversation is calibrated for the listener who already knows the difference between IOER and ON RRP and wants to hear two incisive analysts—not pundits—wrestle with the nuances. Lucas brings the journalist's instinct for what matters to Main Street; Luna pushes back with the macro quant's obsession with regime odds. Together they walk the line between monetary theory and the real-world bets that portfolio managers, corporate treasurers, and independent investors are making this week. No helicopter economics. No 'Fed will save us' cheerleading. Just a clear-eyed, numbers-driven interrogation of the central bank that moves every market. By the end, you'll have a sharper framework for interpreting the next Powell presser—and a question you didn't think to ask. #FederalReserve #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #CentralBanking #FedWatch #Powell #DotPlot #QT #TreasuryYields #EconomicData #Inflation #PCE #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Finance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

  1. 8h ago

    Why the Fed Is Watching the Small-Cap Rally Right Now

    The small-cap index is up 3.1% in the past five days, and the Fed is paying close attention. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the rally in the Russell 2000 matters for monetary policy—especially when the ten-year yield is falling and energy-driven wholesale inflation is running hot. They walk through the historical signal in small-cap leadership, what it says about credit conditions and recession odds, and why this week's move might be more about rate-cut hopes than genuine economic strength. Lucas also shares a behind-the-scenes look at how Fexingo stays ad-free. A focused, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the Fed's next move off the market's small-print signals. #SmallCapRally #Russell2000 #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #Inflation #WholesalePrices #EnergyPrices #TenYearYield #CreditMarkets #RecessionSignals #FOMC #RateCuts #MarketLeadership #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    7 min

  2. 20h ago

    What the Fed Makes of the Small-Cap Rally Right Now

    The Russell 2000 is up over 3% in the last five days while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq drift sideways or dip. Lucas and Luna dig into why small caps are suddenly outpacing large caps, what the Fed sees in this rotation, and whether it signals genuine confidence in a soft landing or just a short-covering bounce in the most battered corner of the market. They look at the rate picture: the ten-year yield has slipped to 4.49, the two-year is at 4.21, and the Fed funds rate sits at 3.62 — a steep but narrowing yield curve that historically favors smaller companies. They also connect it to the May CPI reading of 4.2% year-over-year and the wholesale price surge, asking whether the Fed can afford to let this rally run without tightening further. A grounded, number-driven conversation about what the rotation into small caps really tells us about the path of monetary policy. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #SmallCaps #Russell2000 #YieldCurve #SoftLanding #CPI #InterestRates #FOMC #Rotation #MarketStructure #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #PodcastEpisode #MarketAnalysis #Macro #Finance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    9 min

  3. 1d ago

    How the Fed Is Reading the May CPI Spike

    In episode 51 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna break down what the Fed actually focuses on in the May CPI report — not the headline 4.2% number making the news, but the shift in core services ex-housing and the unexpected jump in used car prices. They connect the inflation data to the Fed's neutral rate debate, the ECB's rate hike, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticking up to 2.31%. Lucas explains why this CPI print complicates the Fed's path to cutting rates, while Luna pushes back on whether one month of data should change the outlook. A focused conversation on what the Fed's models are picking up right now. #FederalReserve #CPI #Inflation #MayCPI #CoreServices #UsedCars #NeutralRate #ECB #MonetaryPolicy #FOMC #BreakevenInflation #InterestRates #Economics #Macro #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedWatch Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    6 min

  4. 1d ago

    The Fed's New Focus on the Neutral Rate

    With the effective fed funds rate at 3.63% and inflation running hot at 4.2%, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky question: how high is 'high enough'? In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the neutral rate of interest — R-star — has become the Fed's obsession in mid-2026. They explore how the post-pandemic economy, energy shocks, and structural changes have likely pushed R-star higher, complicating the FOMC's tightening path. Drawing on recent data including the ten-year breakeven inflation rate of 2.31% and the surprise ECB rate hike, they explain why estimating the neutral rate is more art than science — and why getting it wrong could either keep inflation too high or choke off growth. A focused look at the one number that might matter most to the Fed right now. #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #NeutralRate #RStar #InterestRates #FOMC #Inflation #Economics #CentralBanking #FedFundsRate #ECB #BreakevenRate #CPI #EnergyShocks #TighteningCycle #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    6 min

  5. 2d ago

    The Fed's Quiet Watch on the UK Economy's Shrinkage

    In episode 49 of The Federal Reserve Podcast, Lucas and Luna drill into a single, surprising data point: the UK economy shrank 0.1 percent in April, even as global energy prices surged and the ECB hiked rates for the first time since 2023. They explore why the Fed is quietly watching this—not out of sympathy for Britain, but because UK inflation expectations often lead US ones by about six months. With the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate creeping up to 2.31 percent and the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.62 percent, the hosts ask whether the UK's contraction could be a harbinger of a similar trade-off for the US: higher energy costs leading to slower growth, not just sticky inflation. They reference the latest PPI and CPI prints, the small-cap rally, and the flattening yield curve to question whether the Fed is underreacting to global supply shocks. A fresh, cross-border perspective on what the Fed is actually reading in its morning briefing. #FederalReserve #FOMC #UKEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #CoreCPI #BreakevenInflation #GlobalTrade #EnergyShock #ECB #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #CentralBanking #YieldCurve #SmallCaps #SupplyShock Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    8 min

  6. 2d ago

    What the Fed Makes of the ECB Rate Hike

    Episode 48 of The Federal Reserve Podcast examines the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026 — its first since 2023 — and what it means for the Fed. Hosts Lucas and Luna break down how the Iran conflict is driving energy costs, pushing ECB to act while the Fed stays patient. They explore the divergence in monetary policy, the impact on the dollar and U.S. import prices, and what Fed Chair Powell might signal at the next FOMC meeting. With core PCE still above target and wholesale prices surging, the episode connects global events to domestic rate decisions. Specific data points include the ECB hike, the 1.1 percent jump in May wholesale prices, and the 4.2 percent annual CPI reading. Listeners will understand why the Fed can't ignore ECB moves, especially when energy shocks cross borders. A candid look at central bank interdependence in a tense geopolitical climate. #FederalReserve #ECB #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #IranConflict #EnergyCosts #Inflation #CorePCE #WholesalePrices #CPI #FOMC #CentralBanks #DollarStrength #GlobalEconomy #RateHike #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    6 min

  7. 3d ago

    What the Fed Makes of the ECB Rate Hike

    Episode 47 of The Federal Reserve Podcast with Fexingo examines how the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike on June 11, 2026—the first since 2023—changes the calculus for the Federal Reserve. Lucas and Luna break down the energy-price shock behind the ECB's move, why it pressures the Fed to stay hawkish, and what the 10-year breakeven inflation drop to 2.29% says about market expectations. They also connect the ECB decision to the May CPI print of 4.2% annual inflation and the Fed's current stance at 3.62% effective rate. A focused analysis of central-bank interdependence in a conflict-driven energy crisis. #FederalReserve #ECB #RateHike #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #EnergyCrisis #IranConflict #CPI #BreakevenInflation #FOMC #InterestRates #CentralBanking #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Fexingo #FedPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    7 min

  8. 3d ago

    The Energy Blind Spot Behind Core CPI Right Now

    The May CPI print hit 4.2 percent year-over-year, the highest in three years. But Lucas and Luna look beneath the headline number at what's really worrying the Fed: the gap between 4.2 percent and core CPI at 3.6 percent is almost entirely energy. They trace how the Iran war surcharge is feeding through wholesale prices, why the ECB just hiked for the first time since 2023, and whether the Fed is misreading 'transitory' a second time. Tied to the ten-year breakeven inflation rate slipping to 2.29 percent — markets are betting this spike fades, but the Fed isn't so sure. #CPI #CoreCPI #EnergyPrices #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #ECB #IranWar #WholesalePrices #BreakevenInflation #Economics #Podcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #InterestRates #FOMC #LucasAndLuna #MayCPI Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    7 min
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About

Lucas and Luna dissect the Federal Reserve's every move—from FOMC rate decisions and dot-plot projections to the arcane mechanics of open market operations. Each episode opens with a live data snapshot: the current fed funds rate, Treasury yield curve slope, and the latest reading on the Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE). Then they argue over what the data actually means. Should the market price in a cut? Is QT about to end? Why did one regional Fed president break with the consensus? The conversation is calibrated for the listener who already knows the difference between IOER and ON RRP and wants to hear two incisive analysts—not pundits—wrestle with the nuances. Lucas brings the journalist's instinct for what matters to Main Street; Luna pushes back with the macro quant's obsession with regime odds. Together they walk the line between monetary theory and the real-world bets that portfolio managers, corporate treasurers, and independent investors are making this week. No helicopter economics. No 'Fed will save us' cheerleading. Just a clear-eyed, numbers-driven interrogation of the central bank that moves every market. By the end, you'll have a sharper framework for interpreting the next Powell presser—and a question you didn't think to ask. #FederalReserve #FOMC #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #CentralBanking #FedWatch #Powell #DotPlot #QT #TreasuryYields #EconomicData #Inflation #PCE #Macro #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Finance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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