Excess Returns

Excess Returns
Excess Returns

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. قبل ١٢ ساعة

    You’re Misreading the Rally | Liz Ann Sonders on What is Really Driving Market Returns

    📉 What the Market Is Getting Wrong | Liz Ann Sonders on Debt, Tariffs, and the Fed In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for an in-depth conversation about what's really driving markets right now. Drawing on her latest research and commentary, we dig into retail trading dynamics, the implications of rising tariffs, the debt burden, inflation pressures, market concentration, and why the Fed might be holding the line. Liz Ann delivers clear, actionable insights—cutting through the noise and helping investors understand what matters most in today’s unstable environment. 📌 Topics Covered: Why high debt levels suppress long-term economic growth and productivity The retail trader “fingerprint” on recent market moves How sentiment extremes created a powerful reversal in April The rising risks around tariffs—and why markets may be complacent What companies are doing about margin pressure vs. passing on inflation The Fed’s “timeout” posture and why the market may be misreading it Liz Ann’s view on Powell’s potential ouster and Fed independence The disconnect between contribution to index returns vs. performance (Mag 7) Broadening market leadership and the role of quality stocks Why utilities and industrials are surprising AI beneficiaries How inflation is shifting from disinflationary to secularly higher The overlooked economic effects of immigration policy What the labor market is hiding beneath the headline numbers Why year-end price targets are a “dumb exercise” for individual investors ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – Opening clip: debt, growth, inflation & the Fed 01:00 – Welcome and introduction 02:00 – Retail trader impact on market rally since April 05:25 – Sentiment washout and pain trade dynamics 08:00 – Policy instability and tariff complacency 12:00 – What investors can do in the face of uncertainty 14:50 – Budget deficits, debt burden, and growth implications 18:00 – Inflationary risks embedded in the new spending bill 20:30 – Dissecting inflation: tariffs, goods vs. services, and inequality 23:45 – Inflation vs. margins: where the impact shows first 26:00 – Instability vs. uncertainty: the new investor reality 30:30 – Labor market risks and misleading employment metrics 35:00 – Immigration's hidden macroeconomic effects 38:00 – Fed independence, Powell’s job security, and mispriced rate expectations 42:00 – Why the Fed may not cut—and why that’s bullish 44:20 – Mag 7 myth: contribution vs. true performance 48:00 – Broadening the rally: high-quality vs. low-quality stocks 50:30 – AI's second-order effects and sector-level surprises 55:00 – Liz Ann’s contrarian take: why year-end targets are pointless

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  2. ٢٣ يونيو

    500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers. First Time in a Decade | Daryl Fairweather on What Comes Next

    In this episode, we’re joined by Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of Hate the Game, to explore the most dramatic shift in the U.S. housing market in over a decade. With sellers now outnumbering buyers by more than 500,000 for the first time since 2013, Daryl breaks down what’s really happening beneath the surface—and why so many homeowners and policymakers are reluctant to face it. We dive into the behavioral and structural forces shaping the market today, from price stickiness and record cancellations to zoning reform and climate-driven migration. Whether you're a homeowner, investor, or policy wonk, this conversation offers a comprehensive look at what’s next for real estate in America. Topics discussed include: The shift to a buyer’s market and why it matters The gap between seller expectations and buyer reality Regional pain points: Florida, Texas, and beyond Why insurance costs and HOAs are distorting markets Buyer psychology, affordability, and rent vs. own dynamics Tariffs, uncertainty, and interest rate volatility The policy fixes Daryl believes we need—fast Climate risk, migration, and Redfin’s flood data experiment Why your home shouldn't be your investment strategy Lessons from game theory and behavioral economics Guest Links:Daryl Fairweather’s book Hate the Game is available now on Amazon and Audible.Follow Daryl on X, LinkedIn, and Substack @FairweatherPhD

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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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