Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. قبل ١٢ ساعة

    The Case for a Broadening Bull Market | Jim Paulsen

    Subscribe on Apple Podcsasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999 Subscribe on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc Subscribe on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns In the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The JimPaulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that definetoday's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for whythe private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may notbe on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despiterecord index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, theunderappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, andthe risks posed by policy uncertainty. Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, orjust trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts,and contrarian insight. 🔍 Topics Covered:

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  2. قبل يومين

    You’re Misreading the Rally | Liz Ann Sonders on What is Really Driving Market Returns

    📉 What the Market Is Getting Wrong | Liz Ann Sonders on Debt, Tariffs, and the Fed In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for an in-depth conversation about what's really driving markets right now. Drawing on her latest research and commentary, we dig into retail trading dynamics, the implications of rising tariffs, the debt burden, inflation pressures, market concentration, and why the Fed might be holding the line. Liz Ann delivers clear, actionable insights—cutting through the noise and helping investors understand what matters most in today’s unstable environment. 📌 Topics Covered: Why high debt levels suppress long-term economic growth and productivity The retail trader “fingerprint” on recent market moves How sentiment extremes created a powerful reversal in April The rising risks around tariffs—and why markets may be complacent What companies are doing about margin pressure vs. passing on inflation The Fed’s “timeout” posture and why the market may be misreading it Liz Ann’s view on Powell’s potential ouster and Fed independence The disconnect between contribution to index returns vs. performance (Mag 7) Broadening market leadership and the role of quality stocks Why utilities and industrials are surprising AI beneficiaries How inflation is shifting from disinflationary to secularly higher The overlooked economic effects of immigration policy What the labor market is hiding beneath the headline numbers Why year-end price targets are a “dumb exercise” for individual investors ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – Opening clip: debt, growth, inflation & the Fed 01:00 – Welcome and introduction 02:00 – Retail trader impact on market rally since April 05:25 – Sentiment washout and pain trade dynamics 08:00 – Policy instability and tariff complacency 12:00 – What investors can do in the face of uncertainty 14:50 – Budget deficits, debt burden, and growth implications 18:00 – Inflationary risks embedded in the new spending bill 20:30 – Dissecting inflation: tariffs, goods vs. services, and inequality 23:45 – Inflation vs. margins: where the impact shows first 26:00 – Instability vs. uncertainty: the new investor reality 30:30 – Labor market risks and misleading employment metrics 35:00 – Immigration's hidden macroeconomic effects 38:00 – Fed independence, Powell’s job security, and mispriced rate expectations 42:00 – Why the Fed may not cut—and why that’s bullish 44:20 – Mag 7 myth: contribution vs. true performance 48:00 – Broadening the rally: high-quality vs. low-quality stocks 50:30 – AI's second-order effects and sector-level surprises 55:00 – Liz Ann’s contrarian take: why year-end targets are pointless

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  3. قبل ٦ أيام

    This Isn’t Priced In | PIMCO’s Libby Cantrill on the Policy Risks Markets Are Missing

    Policy uncertainty is rising—but markets seem unfazed. In this episode, we sit down with Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, to explore the critical policy risks that investors may be underestimating or ignoring altogether. From the real-world implications of the tariffs to questions around Fed independence, fiscal stimulus, and housing market interventions, Libby provides an insider’s perspective on what’s happening in Washington—and why it matters more than the market suggests. She also discusses how policy risk differs from macroeconomic risk, how investors often price the wrong factors, and why the next shock may not come from where most expect. Topics covered include: Why policy risk remains underappreciated by markets The lasting impact of tariffs—and how they could evolve The Big, Beautiful Tax Bill: What’s real, what’s hype Risks to Fed independence and central bank credibility GSE reform and the political tightrope in housing The intersection of fiscal policy and market complacency Whether you're focused on macro trends, portfolio positioning, or simply trying to understand what Washington might throw at markets next, this is a conversation you don’t want to miss.

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  4. ١٦ يوليو

    False Recession Alarms. Real Risks. | Aahan Menon on What Investors Are Missing

    Why didn’t the long-predicted recession arrive? In this episode, we talk with Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, about why traditional macro models are breaking down and what investors are missing in today’s economy. Aahan explains why recession indicators have failed, how monetary policy transmission has changed, and what really matters in understanding economic risk right now. We also explore how Prometheus uses a systematic approach to macro investing, why focusing on the present is more valuable than forecasting the future, and what their models revealed about the true impact of tariffs—before the market reacted. If you’ve been relying on the old playbook, this conversation will challenge your thinking. Topics discussed include: Why recession indicators failed to predict this cycle The real risk behind the Liberation Day tariff panic How the Fed’s rate hikes lost their bite What’s changed in the economy’s sensitivity to rates Prometheus’ approach to stress testing and forecasting How Aahan translates macro data into portfolio strategy The behavioral traps investors fall into during macro shifts

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  5. ١١ يوليو

    How Option Dealer Flows Impact the Stock Market

    Billions are moving through the stock market every day—but not for the reasons most investors think. In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma breaks down the hidden world of options dealer flows and explains how concepts like gamma, vanna, and charm are silently shaping market behavior. Whether you’re a trader or long-term investor, understanding these behind-the-scenes forces is essential to making sense of today’s volatility. We discuss: What dealer hedging flows are—and why they matter How options flows move billions without a fundamental trigger The role of gamma, vanna, and charm in stock price action Why expiration cycles often mark major market turning points Real-world examples: GameStop, Tesla, Nvidia, and the S&P 500 What traditional investors miss by ignoring these dynamics Even if you’ve never traded an option, this episode will change how you see the market.

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  6. ٨ يوليو

    The Great Moderation is Over. The Great Convergence is Here | Luca Paolini on What Comes Next

    In this episode, we speak with Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, about the firm’s 2025 Secular Outlook and the unfolding shift in global markets. Paolini argues that the era of U.S. exceptionalism is fading—and investors may be mispricing what comes next. We discuss why the “Great Convergence” could redefine asset allocation, what it means for U.S. equities and the dollar, and why now might be the time to lean into bonds and income-generating assets. Paolini also shares his views on inflation, tariffs, AI, private markets, and the challenges of navigating a low-return, high-risk world. Whether you're a global macro watcher or a long-term investor thinking about regime shifts, this conversation offers a roadmap for the next five years. Topics covered include: Why the U.S. may no longer deserve its valuation premium How debt and protectionism threaten global growth Why the next five years could see converging returns across regions and assets The investment case for bonds, credit, and emerging market debt AI’s impact on productivity and equity concentration The future role of gold, crypto, and private assets in portfolios

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  7. ٢٨ يونيو

    Whipsaws, Drawdowns, and Disbelief | Eric Crittenden on the Best Diversifier No One Buys

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck sit down with Eric Crittenden, CIO of Standpoint Funds, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion about trend following, risk transfer markets, and what it takes to build a resilient investment strategy for uncertain futures. Eric shares decades of hard-won insights on investor behavior, portfolio construction, performance pain points, and why blending passive equities with systematic macro might just be the future of asset allocation. 🔍 Topics Covered: The uncomfortable realities of trend following performance Why many investors misunderstand managed futures Eric’s view on the current drawdown and client behavior Setting expectations with empirical data and simulations The case for blending passive equities with trend following Capital formation vs. risk transfer markets explained What market participants get wrong about futures The surprising resilience of cap-weighted equity indexes The flaws in relying on bonds as diversifiers How regime shifts and correlation changes affect trend models Philosophical take on risk, regulation, and structural market design

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  8. ٢٥ يونيو

    Broken Models. Misleading Yields | Ryan Krueger on Avoiding the Dividend Trap

    Most investors chase yield. But what if the very models they rely on — from dividend screens to the 4% rule — are fundamentally broken? In this episode, we’re joined by Ryan Krueger, co-founder of Freedom Day Solutions and manager of the MBOX ETF, to explore the overlooked truths of dividend investing. Ryan breaks down the importance of dividend growth over yield, why most dividend strategies ignore free cash flow, and how a disciplined sell process separates long-term success from failure. He also explains the concept of “Freedom Day” — a reimagined approach to retirement that’s built on income, not asset totals. Whether you're a dividend investor, financial advisor, or retiree planning for long-term income, this conversation offers a fresh, practical framework you won’t hear elsewhere. We discuss: Why dividend growth beats high yield over time The flaws in the 4% withdrawal rule How yield-on-cost changes investor behavior Red flags hidden inside popular dividend ETFs How “Freedom Day” redefines retirement planning Ryan’s quant + discretionary investment process The underrated power of sell discipline Why “never add to losers” might boost your returns 📈 Learn more about Ryan’s work: https://freedomdaysolutions.com

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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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    Excess Returns
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    © 905628
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    Excess Returns

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