Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. قبل ١١ ساعة

    Darius Dale on the Fourth Turning, Fiscal Dominance, and the Case for a Melt-Up

    Macro strategist Darius Dale returns to Excess Returns with a deep dive into the seismic shifts shaping markets today. From the implications of the Fourth Turning to the systemic risks of fiscal dominance, Dale shares how he’s helping investors stay on the right side of market risk using quantitative tools and macro insights from 42 Macro. This episode covers everything from inflation, tariffs, and AI to a systematic framework for navigating regime change in real time. Whether you're a retail investor or an institutional pro, this conversation is packed with insights that matter. 🔍 In This Episode: The Fourth Turning’s impact on markets and society Why inflation, income inequality, and geopolitical turmoil are converging How Darius's market regime model (Dr. Mo) systematically adapts to risk What the “KISS” model portfolio is—and how it outperforms 60/40 Why recession models failed and how Darius sees the economy now The overlooked growth shock from policy—not just tariffs How AI may shift the economic power structure even more dramatically Why he believes the long-term outlook is structurally bullish (despite the chaos) ⏱️ Timestamps:00:00 – Opening macro warning and Fourth Turning setup02:44 – Darius on working with Neil Howe and implications of generational shifts04:13 – How the Fourth Turning creates fiscal dominance and financial repression08:21 – Explaining the market regime system and Dr. Mo14:33 – What institutions get wrong and how volatility front-runs momentum17:13 – The origin of 42 Macro and mission to democratize institutional-grade tools18:35 – Case study: When the model turned bullish in April21:23 – Why tariffs don’t derail the model23:41 – Why recession signals failed & how Dale reads the cycle differently30:13 – Why Dale is still pounding the table on U.S. resilience35:11 – Paradigm A → B → C: the evolution of economic policy under pressure43:49 – Will AI fuel an i-shaped economy? Or something better?50:28 – Inside the “KISS” model portfolio and its 25% average annual return 🔗 Learn more at 42macro.com📊 Follow Darius Dale on X: @42macroDDale

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  2. قبل يومين

    The Risks of the Rise of Passive Investing | Mike Green

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Mike Green returns to dissect the structural transformation underway in public markets due to the rise of passive investing. He explains why “there’s no such thing as a passive investor,” how inelastic flows distort prices, and what it means for valuation, volatility, and the long-term sustainability of equity markets. From the math behind market multipliers to the policy distortions driving mega-cap dominance, Mike walks through the macro, micro, and behavioral implications of passive flows — and what investors and policymakers need to do about it. 🔍 Topics Covered: Why passive investing isn’t truly passive The origins and impact of the inelastic market hypothesis How passive flows distort price discovery The shift from mean reversion to mean expansion in markets Multipliers and the mechanics of how flows drive prices Why market efficiency is breaking down at scale The hidden risks of passive-dominant market structure Target date funds and their unintended consequences The fragility of valuations under passive dominance The problem with IPO scarcity and capital misallocation Options strategies for convex tails and market drift Why the Fed and regulators may act — and what could trigger it Bitcoin and private markets as new flow-driven regimes How policy and tax advantages have reshaped capitalism ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – "There’s no such thing as a passive investor" 01:05 – The origins of Mike’s work on passive flows 03:00 – Bill Sharpe vs. Lasse Pedersen on passive flaws 06:00 – Index rebalancing and the illusion of passivity 07:00 – The rise of flow-based (demand-side) asset pricing 10:00 – Why EMH broke down under scale 12:00 – The human layer markets forgot 14:30 – The math behind price multipliers (5x to 25x) 17:00 – Market efficiency vs. market distortion 20:00 – Meta, index drift, and fake efficiency 23:00 – What individual investors should do 25:00 – The Mag 7 and extreme multiplier effects 27:00 – Options and convex tail risk management 29:00 – Mike’s 2016 survey on marginal buying behavior 31:00 – The shift from mean reversion to mean expansion 33:30 – When the music stops: wealth-to-income dynamics 35:00 – Theoretical crash under net withdrawals 36:00 – Why the boomer selloff thesis is flawed 39:00 – The overlooked risk: wealthy investors exiting actives 41:00 – Public vs. private equity concentration 43:00 – Why policy response is likely (and how it may look) 46:00 – Political power vs. market dominance 49:00 – Bitcoin, passive ETFs, and flow-driven pricing 52:00 – Private equity in 401(k)s — implications and risks 57:00 – The unintended outcomes of inflated valuations 59:00 – The hollowing out of the public equity bid 1:01:00 – How Vanguard’s 2015 rebalancing moved the market 1:04:00 – Valuation opacity and future withdrawals 1:07:00 – What Mike is working on now and next steps

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  3. قبل ٤ أيام

    The Case for a Broadening Bull Market | Jim Paulsen

    Subscribe on Apple Podcsasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999 Subscribe on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc Subscribe on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns In the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The JimPaulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that definetoday's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for whythe private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may notbe on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despiterecord index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, theunderappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, andthe risks posed by policy uncertainty. Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, orjust trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts,and contrarian insight. 🔍 Topics Covered:

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  4. قبل ٦ أيام

    You’re Misreading the Rally | Liz Ann Sonders on What is Really Driving Market Returns

    📉 What the Market Is Getting Wrong | Liz Ann Sonders on Debt, Tariffs, and the Fed In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for an in-depth conversation about what's really driving markets right now. Drawing on her latest research and commentary, we dig into retail trading dynamics, the implications of rising tariffs, the debt burden, inflation pressures, market concentration, and why the Fed might be holding the line. Liz Ann delivers clear, actionable insights—cutting through the noise and helping investors understand what matters most in today’s unstable environment. 📌 Topics Covered: Why high debt levels suppress long-term economic growth and productivity The retail trader “fingerprint” on recent market moves How sentiment extremes created a powerful reversal in April The rising risks around tariffs—and why markets may be complacent What companies are doing about margin pressure vs. passing on inflation The Fed’s “timeout” posture and why the market may be misreading it Liz Ann’s view on Powell’s potential ouster and Fed independence The disconnect between contribution to index returns vs. performance (Mag 7) Broadening market leadership and the role of quality stocks Why utilities and industrials are surprising AI beneficiaries How inflation is shifting from disinflationary to secularly higher The overlooked economic effects of immigration policy What the labor market is hiding beneath the headline numbers Why year-end price targets are a “dumb exercise” for individual investors ⏱️ Timestamps: 00:00 – Opening clip: debt, growth, inflation & the Fed 01:00 – Welcome and introduction 02:00 – Retail trader impact on market rally since April 05:25 – Sentiment washout and pain trade dynamics 08:00 – Policy instability and tariff complacency 12:00 – What investors can do in the face of uncertainty 14:50 – Budget deficits, debt burden, and growth implications 18:00 – Inflationary risks embedded in the new spending bill 20:30 – Dissecting inflation: tariffs, goods vs. services, and inequality 23:45 – Inflation vs. margins: where the impact shows first 26:00 – Instability vs. uncertainty: the new investor reality 30:30 – Labor market risks and misleading employment metrics 35:00 – Immigration's hidden macroeconomic effects 38:00 – Fed independence, Powell’s job security, and mispriced rate expectations 42:00 – Why the Fed may not cut—and why that’s bullish 44:20 – Mag 7 myth: contribution vs. true performance 48:00 – Broadening the rally: high-quality vs. low-quality stocks 50:30 – AI's second-order effects and sector-level surprises 55:00 – Liz Ann’s contrarian take: why year-end targets are pointless

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  5. ٢٠ يوليو

    This Isn’t Priced In | PIMCO’s Libby Cantrill on the Policy Risks Markets Are Missing

    Policy uncertainty is rising—but markets seem unfazed. In this episode, we sit down with Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, to explore the critical policy risks that investors may be underestimating or ignoring altogether. From the real-world implications of the tariffs to questions around Fed independence, fiscal stimulus, and housing market interventions, Libby provides an insider’s perspective on what’s happening in Washington—and why it matters more than the market suggests. She also discusses how policy risk differs from macroeconomic risk, how investors often price the wrong factors, and why the next shock may not come from where most expect. Topics covered include: Why policy risk remains underappreciated by markets The lasting impact of tariffs—and how they could evolve The Big, Beautiful Tax Bill: What’s real, what’s hype Risks to Fed independence and central bank credibility GSE reform and the political tightrope in housing The intersection of fiscal policy and market complacency Whether you're focused on macro trends, portfolio positioning, or simply trying to understand what Washington might throw at markets next, this is a conversation you don’t want to miss.

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  6. ١٦ يوليو

    False Recession Alarms. Real Risks. | Aahan Menon on What Investors Are Missing

    Why didn’t the long-predicted recession arrive? In this episode, we talk with Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, about why traditional macro models are breaking down and what investors are missing in today’s economy. Aahan explains why recession indicators have failed, how monetary policy transmission has changed, and what really matters in understanding economic risk right now. We also explore how Prometheus uses a systematic approach to macro investing, why focusing on the present is more valuable than forecasting the future, and what their models revealed about the true impact of tariffs—before the market reacted. If you’ve been relying on the old playbook, this conversation will challenge your thinking. Topics discussed include: Why recession indicators failed to predict this cycle The real risk behind the Liberation Day tariff panic How the Fed’s rate hikes lost their bite What’s changed in the economy’s sensitivity to rates Prometheus’ approach to stress testing and forecasting How Aahan translates macro data into portfolio strategy The behavioral traps investors fall into during macro shifts

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  7. ١١ يوليو

    How Option Dealer Flows Impact the Stock Market

    Billions are moving through the stock market every day—but not for the reasons most investors think. In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma breaks down the hidden world of options dealer flows and explains how concepts like gamma, vanna, and charm are silently shaping market behavior. Whether you’re a trader or long-term investor, understanding these behind-the-scenes forces is essential to making sense of today’s volatility. We discuss: What dealer hedging flows are—and why they matter How options flows move billions without a fundamental trigger The role of gamma, vanna, and charm in stock price action Why expiration cycles often mark major market turning points Real-world examples: GameStop, Tesla, Nvidia, and the S&P 500 What traditional investors miss by ignoring these dynamics Even if you’ve never traded an option, this episode will change how you see the market.

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  8. ٨ يوليو

    The Great Moderation is Over. The Great Convergence is Here | Luca Paolini on What Comes Next

    In this episode, we speak with Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, about the firm’s 2025 Secular Outlook and the unfolding shift in global markets. Paolini argues that the era of U.S. exceptionalism is fading—and investors may be mispricing what comes next. We discuss why the “Great Convergence” could redefine asset allocation, what it means for U.S. equities and the dollar, and why now might be the time to lean into bonds and income-generating assets. Paolini also shares his views on inflation, tariffs, AI, private markets, and the challenges of navigating a low-return, high-risk world. Whether you're a global macro watcher or a long-term investor thinking about regime shifts, this conversation offers a roadmap for the next five years. Topics covered include: Why the U.S. may no longer deserve its valuation premium How debt and protectionism threaten global growth Why the next five years could see converging returns across regions and assets The investment case for bonds, credit, and emerging market debt AI’s impact on productivity and equity concentration The future role of gold, crypto, and private assets in portfolios

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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

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    Excess Returns
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    © 905628
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    Excess Returns

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