Excess Returns

Excess Returns
  • 4.8(71개의 평가)
  • 투자
  • 매주 업데이트

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 15시간 전

    The Most Extreme Speculation in 40 Years | Richard Bernstein on What It Means for Markets

    In this episode, we are joined by Richard Bernstein, CIO and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. We discuss why this is one of the most speculative market environments he has seen in his 40-year career, why he still believes it may also be one of the best eras for patient long-term investors, and how to think about the real opportunities hiding beneath the market's current narrow leadership. Richard breaks down his profit cycle framework, shares why investors are confusing economic stories for investment stories, and explains why non-US quality stocks and dividend strategies may be primed for a comeback.Topics covered• Speculation across asset classes and why it matters• Why fundamentals still offer big opportunities• The profit cycle vs the economic cycle• Divergence between the market leaders and the broader market• Inflation, pricing power, and corporate margins• Parallels between the AI boom and the dot-com bubble• Misallocation of capital and risks to the market• The case for non-US quality stocks• Where value investing could shine again• Dividend compounding and long-term wealth building• How RBA approaches macro-driven ETF investing• What investors are getting wrong about diversification• Deglobalization, reindustrialization, and long-term themes Timestamps00:00 Intro and speculative environment01:46 Best opportunities for patient investors03:52 Profit cycle framework explained06:00 Where we are in the profit cycle07:32 What investors are missing on inflation09:12 Lessons from the dot-com era and AI comparisons13:46 What could trigger the speculative unwind17:18 Valuations, CAPE, and return expectations20:23 AI’s impact on margins and productivity22:39 Can value outperform again25:41 International opportunities and quality stocks34:31 Market breadth and narrow leadership36:00 The Fed, inflation targeting, and policy risks40:11 RBA’s investment process and ETF selection47:13 Diversification vs speculation behavior49:26 Misallocation of capital and market risks52:00 Deglobalization and manufacturing opportunities54:13 Closing question: Stock market vs horse race57:40 The business Richard would start today58:29 Where to follow Richard Bernstein

    59분

  2. 1일 전

    99.9% Focus on the Wrong Question | Victor Haghani on Why Static Allocation Fails

    In this episode, we sit down with Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and one of the original partners at LTCM, to explore his journey from running complex hedge fund strategies to adopting a simplified, evidence-based investment approach. We discuss how investors should think about expected returns, portfolio construction, dynamic asset allocation, valuation signals, buybacks, managed futures, and the dangers of extrapolating past returns into the future. Topics covered:• Victor’s journey from LTCM to simple, systematic investing• Why position sizing is as important as what you own• How to think about expected returns and valuation frameworks like CAPE and P-CAPE• The role of risk, risk premia, and personal utility in portfolio decisions• Why 60/40 and the permanent portfolio ignore expected returns• Buybacks, market elasticity, and capital flows• Indexing misconceptions and asset allocation discipline• The ETF structure and tax efficiency in asset allocation strategies• Concentration in large tech stocks and long-term equity returns• The importance of dynamic asset allocation vs static allocation• Key lessons for individual investors and avoiding “too good to be true” opportunities Timestamps:00:00 Intro and Victor’s investing journey03:00 Lessons from LTCM and shift to simplicity09:00 Position sizing vs asset selection13:00 Risk as a cost and thinking in expected returns18:00 CAPE and the P-CAPE framework26:00 How to use expected return estimates34:00 The impact of buybacks on equity markets39:00 Indexing vs poor asset allocation habits43:00 Portfolio construction and global diversification46:00 Why the permanent portfolio falls short47:00 Managed futures and factors beyond stocks and bonds50:00 Inside Elm’s dynamic allocation ETF55:00 Market concentration and equity issuance risks01:01:00 The case for dynamic allocation01:02:50 Victor’s one investing lesson

    1시간 6분

  3. 3일 전

    The Case for Permanently Higher Market Valuations | Jim Paulsen

    Subscribe on Apple Podcsasts ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999⁠ Subscribe on Spotify ⁠https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc⁠ Subscribe on YouTube ⁠https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns

    1시간 9분

  4. 5일 전

    The Liquidity Trap Door | Cem Karsan on Why We Are Likely in a Bubble, It Could Get Bigger, And What Pops It

    In this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today’s volatility dynamics, the role of AI spending in sustaining the cycle, and why traditional 60/40 portfolios may face major challenges in the years ahead. Cem also explains how investors should think about tail risk, true diversification, and building portfolios for a world where liquidity flows dictate outcomes. Main topics covered Why we are in a bubble but still likely to go higher first Fundamentals vs liquidity as drivers of returns Options as the “3-D” market and how they now drive equities Reflexivity and how option flows influence asset prices Retail adoption of options and misperceptions in the space AI investment boom, tail risks, and market liquidity feedback loops Historical valuation regimes and recency bias in markets Portfolio construction beyond the 60/40 model Tail hedging and the role of long volatility Importance of true diversification and managing interest-rate risk Timestamps 00:00 Bubble dynamics and why being bullish can coexist with danger 03:00 Fundamentals vs liquidity as market drivers 08:00 Rise of options and how they now influence markets 14:00 Reflexivity explained in simple terms 19:00 Mistakes investors make with options and structured products 24:00 AI spending, liquidity expansion, and similarities to 1999 31:00 Tail risks, China/Taiwan, private markets, inflation signals 38:00 Why 60/40 has worked recently – and why it may fail ahead 52:00 Inequality, cycles, crisis as a clearing mechanism 54:00 Building a portfolio for the next decade: diversification, tail hedging, box spreads, and non-correlated strategies 1:04:00 Closing thoughts and takeaway for investors

    1시간 5분

  5. 10월 29일

    The $5 Trillion Question | Kai Wu on the Risks of the Mag Seven's Big AI CapEx Bet

    Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to discuss his paper Surviving the AI CapEx Boom. In this episode, Kai breaks down the unprecedented level of investment in AI infrastructure, why today’s AI buildout mirrors past technology booms, and what it all means for investors. He explores the parallels between AI and historic bubbles, the implications of massive corporate CapEx spending, and where value might ultimately be captured as the cycle plays out. Topics covered: Why big tech’s CapEx spending has exploded and how much they’re investing The trillions in revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure spending Historical parallels with the railroad and dot-com buildouts Why companies that invest heavily often underperform How the Mag 7 are shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses The risks of “circular deals” and financial entanglement in AI Why the AI race resembles a prisoner’s dilemma Which layers of the AI stack may capture long-term value How early adopters and infrastructure players differ in capital intensity and returns Where investors might find opportunity beyond the obvious AI names Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and overview of AI CapEx boom 03:00 Why Kai researched AI investment cycles 05:00 Scale of big tech’s CapEx spending 07:00 Revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure 08:30 Market concentration and valuation risks 11:30 Historical parallels: railroads, internet, and AI 14:30 The capital cycle and overinvestment dynamics 17:30 “This time is different?” and lessons from bubbles 18:00 Factor investing and high-asset-growth underperformance 21:00 Sector and firm-level CapEx trends 22:30 Winner-take-all dynamics and competitive pressure 26:00 How the Mag 7’s business model is changing 30:00 Comparing tech CapEx to utilities 34:00 The circular deal problem and financial risk 37:30 The AI arms race as a prisoner’s dilemma 40:30 Will AI be winner-take-all? 43:30 Lessons from the railroad and dot-com eras 47:00 Where the value is captured in infrastructure vs adoption 48:00 Identifying early AI adopters and hidden beneficiaries 50:30 Sector and geographic AI exposure 54:00 Capital intensity and valuation differences between infrastructure and adopters

    1시간 7분

  6. 10월 28일

    The Inflation Risk Investors Miss | Nancy Davis

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management and the mind behind the innovative fixed income ETFs IVOL and BNDD. Nancy shares her insights on how investors are unknowingly short volatility in their portfolios, the role of options and convexity in fixed income, and how her ETFs seek to hedge against inflation, interest rate shifts, and volatility in a unique way. We also discuss the bond market, inflation dynamics, and how investors can better understand and manage risks that are often hidden inside traditional portfolios. Main topics covered • How Nancy’s experience trading volatility at Goldman Sachs shaped her investment philosophy • Why most investors are short volatility without realizing it • Understanding convexity and prepayment risk in bond portfolios • The rise of passive investing and its impact on interest rate volatility • How IVOL provides exposure to interest rate volatility and inflation protection • The problem with relying on CPI as a measure of inflation • Why gold is an inconsistent inflation hedge • The yield curve as an alternative indicator of inflation expectations • Why interest rate volatility is historically cheap today • The relationship between bond volatility and stock volatility • How to think about IVOL and BNDD in a diversified portfolio • The long-term risks of shorting volatility and selling options for “income” Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and overview of option selling in markets 02:15 Nancy’s background at Goldman Sachs and lessons on volatility 05:00 Understanding convexity and its importance in fixed income 06:30 Why investors are short interest rate volatility without knowing it 10:25 The hidden risks inside the bond market and the role of mortgages 11:00 Why most investors are short inflation in real life 13:00 Conventional vs. alternative inflation hedges 17:00 Why CPI is an imperfect inflation measure 18:00 How the yield curve reflects inflation expectations 21:00 Historical yield curve data and current inversion 25:00 Interest rate volatility after Silicon Valley Bank 26:30 Relationship between bond and stock volatility 28:00 Using IVOL in a portfolio 31:00 Discussion on the national debt and interest rate risk 32:00 BNDD ETF and how it complements IVOL 33:30 Why inflation-protected bonds are underused in the US 36:00 Closing questions – what Nancy believes most peers disagree with 37:00 Why selling options is not income and the risks investors overlook

    39분

  7. 10월 27일

    The 40 CAPE Conundrum | Meb Faber on What High Valuations Mean for Markets

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Meb Faber joins the show to discuss valuations, diversification, trend following, value investing, and the evolution of markets and investor behavior over the past two decades. Meb shares insights from his upcoming book, lessons from 400 years of market history, and how investors can position themselves for the next decade. The conversation covers everything from international investing and concentration risk to ETFs, managed futures, AI, and long-term discipline. Topics covered: The four historical periods of 15%+ annualized stock market returns and what followed Why current U.S. valuations don’t necessarily mean an immediate crash How global value stocks are now outperforming the S&P 500 The role of international diversification and real assets in portfolios Trend following and managed futures as the “premier diversifiers” The benefits of blending trend and valuation-based strategies The permanent portfolio and how managed futures enhance it Concentration risk in U.S. equities and what history teaches about market leadership The parallels (and limits) between today’s market and the dot-com bubble AI’s potential role in investing and portfolio management The behavioral traps around performance chasing and when to sell Lessons from launching and running ETFs and the 351 exchange structure for tax efficiency The future of markets, retail investors, and Meb’s upcoming book “Time Billionaires” Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and market performance context 04:00 Are U.S. valuations permanently higher? 09:00 The spectrum of future returns and investor playbook 12:00 International and value investing opportunities 15:00 Trend following and managed futures 19:00 The permanent portfolio and diversification 25:00 Concentration risk and market structure 28:00 AI’s impact on investing 32:00 Comparing today’s market to the dot-com bubble 37:00 The long-term case for value investing 41:00 When to sell and investor behavior 45:00 Lessons from running ETFs and industry evolution 51:00 Understanding 351 exchanges and tax-efficient investing 57:00 What’s changed most for investors over 20 years 59:00 Meb’s new book “Time Billionaires” and closing thoughts

    1시간 1분

  8. 10월 26일

    Everyone Feared Recession. His Data Said Otherwise | US Bank CIO Eric Freedman on What It Says Now

    Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he’s maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers macro trends, inflation, the Fed, AI, valuation, and how to stay disciplined as an investor. Topics covered: Data-driven investing and the “control the controllables” framework Why the U.S. consumer remains resilient Inflation outlook and how sticky prices impact portfolios The Fed’s next moves and what investors should watch Global diversification and the case for international stocks How to think about inflation protection and real assets The diffusion of AI and separating winners from pretenders Market concentration, valuations, and managing risk Life lessons from a CIO: discipline, process, and informed decision-making Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 03:00 Controlling the controllables 06:00 Why Eric remains optimistic on the economy 10:00 How portfolio decisions flow through US Bank 15:00 Data-driven insights vs. gut feel 18:00 Consumer strength and scorecard 22:40 Inflation outlook and Fed challenges 30:00 Bond market risk and the “Brazilian steakhouse” analogy 34:00 Global competition and diversification 38:00 Inflation protection and real assets 41:30 The reality of AI and productivity 47:00 Market concentration and the Mag 7 52:00 Valuations and long-term returns 55:45 Lessons for investors

    59분
모두 보기(407개)

예고편

4.8
최고 5점
71개의 평가

소개

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

정보

  • 제작진
    Excess Returns
  • 방송 연도
    2019년 - 2025년
  • 에피소드
    407
  • 등급
    전체 연령 사용가
  • 저작권
    © 905628
  • 웹사이트 보기
    Excess Returns

좋아할 만한 다른 항목