Mortgage rates, Federal Reserve, inflation, PCE report, oil prices, Iran conflict, Dow Jones, mortgage rate forecast — here's what moved rates today and what the Fed does next. The Fed just came out and the mortgage bond market took a wild ride because of it. Inflation on the PCE report came in better than expected at 3.3%, jobless claims stayed low, and the Dow is nearing 52,000... but the Fed is still showing a 60% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting. On top of that, the oil war overseas is still raging and could send rates jumping if it escalates. In this video I break down exactly what's driving mortgage rates right now and what I'm telling my own clients to do about it. How to read the mortgage rate chart and what moved rates after the Fed's comments The PCE inflation report and why 3.3% matters Jobless claims, continued claims, and what they signal about the job market Oil prices, the Iran conflict, and how a jump to $120 a barrel could affect your rate Why the Dow is near 52,000 despite the ongoing conflict The Fed's 60% odds of a hike at the next meeting, and what I'm advising clients with a signed contract right now I go deeper on this in my blog post, Is the Fed About to Trigger a Mortgage Rate Shock?: https://www.therateupdate.com/blog/is-the-fed-about-to-trigger-a-mortgage-rate-shock Chapters: 0:00 Intro – Inflation, Oil War & What the Fed Does Next 1:30 The Rate Chart – What Happened After the Fed's Comments 3:15 PCE Inflation Breakdown (3.3% Reading) 5:15 Jobs Data, Oil Prices & the Iran Conflict Risk 7:30 Dow Nears 52,000, Fed's 60% Hike Odds & Locking Your Rate 🏠 Ready to Buy or Refinance? Get Pre-Approved https://257781.my1003app.com/246527/register 📅 Want to Talk Through Your Options? Schedule a Consultation https://calendly.com/d/cq29-7xd-x3v/the-frio-team?month=2025-05 ✉️ Have Questions? Contact / Ask Dan https://www.therateupdate.com/contact Welcome to The Rate Update with Dan Frio. This channel helps homebuyers, homeowners, real estate professionals, and anyone watching the housing market understand what is really happening with mortgage rates, housing, inflation, the bond market, the Federal Reserve, and the economy. My goal is simple: No hype. Just real data, clear explanations, and practical next steps. Here, we break down the stories that impact your mortgage payment, your buying power, your refinance options, and your financial decisions. WHAT YOU'LL FIND ON THIS CHANNEL 🏠 Mortgage rate updates 📉 Housing market news 📊 Inflation and Federal Reserve analysis 📈 10-Year Treasury and bond market movement 💰 Refinance opportunities 🏡 Homebuyer education 🔁 RateWatch and mortgage monitoring tools 🧮 Mortgage calculators and payment tools 🎥 Live market updates and housing commentary Whether you are buying your first home, refinancing your current mortgage, comparing loan options, or just trying to understand why rates are moving, this channel is built to help you make better decisions. TOP RESOURCES 📉 Track Mortgage Rates Automatically https://rw2.therateupdate.com/ 🏠 TRU Mortgage Command Center https://command.therateupdate.com/ 💳 TRU Debt Optimizer https://debtrelief.therateupdate.com/ 🧮 Mortgage Calculators & Tools https://stan.store/TRU-Foundations FOLLOW THE RATE UPDATE YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio Instagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdate TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate DISCLAIMER I am a licensed mortgage loan officer in all 50 states and Puerto Rico. NMLS #246527 | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp NMLS #257781 | Equal Housing Lender. This channel is for education and commentary only. Topics may include mortgage rates, real estate, housing, stocks, bonds, cryptocurrency, inflation, the Federal Reserve, and financial markets. All opinions are my own and do not represent PBT Bancorp, TRU Mortgage Team, or any financial institution I may be employed by or affiliated with. Nothing on this channel is an offer to lend, a commitment to lend, financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Mortgage rates, terms, approvals, and programs are subject to borrower qualifications, market conditions, underwriting approval, and change without notice. Not all borrowers will qualify. #MortgageRates #FederalReserve #HousingMarket
