Risk Parity Radio

Frank Vasquez

Risk Parity Radio is a podcast about investing located at www.riskparityradio.com.  RPR explores risk-parity style portfolios comprised of uncorrelated or negatively correlated asset classes -- stocks, selected bonds, gold, managed futures, and other easily accessible fund options for the DIY investor.  The goal is to construct portfolios that are robust and can be drawn down on in perpetuity, and to maximize projected Safe Withdrawal Rates regardless of projected overall returns.

  1. 2D AGO

    Episode 487: It's Mary Time, Intermediate Accumulation, 529s To Roths, And Leeroy Jenkins Gambling Problems

    In this episode we answer emails from Tim, Anderson, and Pete. We discuss using a Golden Butterfly portfolio for intermediate accumulation, converting 529s to Roths and excessively levered portfolios for small children.  (I can't make this stuff up.) But first we share Mary’s mission with Fairfax CASA and explain how steady advocacy changes a child’s path, and roll out our Fairfax CASA fundraising campaign in connection with National Child Abuse Prevention Month. Links: Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASA The Starfish Thrower Philosophy from Episode 441 (Cool New Video!):  The Starfish Thrower Philosophy With Mary.mp4 - Google Drive Mary's CASA Case Adoption Story:  The Johnson’s Foster Care & Adoption Story FIRE Takes Podcast:  FIRE Takes Podcast Portfolio Charts Drawdown Calculator:  Drawdowns – Portfolio Charts Testfolio Backtester:  testfol.io Pete's Leveraged Leeroy Jenkins Portfolios:  testfol.io/?s=l7aMOsy4720 Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Ever wonder how to save for a goal that’s a few years away without riding stock-market whiplash or leaving too much on the table in cash? We walk through a practical, risk-aware path for mid-term savings and pair it with something close to our hearts: Mary’s work with Fairfax CASA, where trained volunteers are a constant for kids navigating abuse or neglect cases. You’ll hear what CASA volunteers actually do—attend hearings, coordinate services, write court reports, and keep showing up—plus the data that proves consistent advocacy moves outcomes. From there, we dig into building an intermediate-term portfolio using a risk parity approach like the Golden Butterfly. We explain how to model a real alternative to HYSAs: use long-history T-bill data instead of SHY, add regular monthly contributions to reflect real life, and examine drawdown length and worst-case windows over three to five-year spans. You’ll learn why shorter, shallower drawdowns can matter more than headline returns when timing is uncertain, and how Testfolio helps you compare paths with clarity. We also unpack a powerful planning angle: rolling leftover 529 funds to a Roth IRA under current rules, including holding periods, beneficiary considerations, earned income needs, and why Roth contribution capacity is too valuable to waste. We don’t shy away from the spicy stuff either—managed futures, leverage, and the gap between theory and practice. Rather than letting fear set the rules, we talk about small, controlled experiments that build skill and confidence. That shift—from anxiety to informed action—can change both your portfolio and your peace of mind. If this resonates, support Fairfax CASA via the link in the show notes and mention Risk Parity Radio or Mary Vasquez in the comment box. Then hit follow, share the episode with a friend who’s stuck between stocks and savings, and leave a quick review to help more DIY investors find us. Support the show

    34 min
  2. 5D AGO

    Episode 486: Matching Your Portfolio With Your Spending Goals, The RPR Site, ETPs, Coast FI Sabbaticals, And Portfolio Reviews As Of February 6, 2026

    In this episode we answer email Serge, Nielsen, Paul and Loren.  We dig into the core question that drives every portfolio -- when will this money be spent and by whom -- which dictates how it should be invested, and talk about the website, ETPs and their variations, and thinking about sabbaticals and Coast FI.  We also mention our Risk Parity Radio gathering at EconoMe on Friday at the Celare Hotel. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Additional Links: The New(ish) Web Page:  Risk Parity Radio Retire Often Book:  Retire Often | Create a meaningful and enjoyable life Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: What is this money actually for—and when will it be used? We build from that deceptively simple question to map two clear paths: an equity-heavy accumulation approach for wealth you won’t touch for decades, and a diversified, endowment-inspired design for money you plan to spend or share in the near term. Along the way, we unpack revealed preferences, why giving while living can outperform hoarding for family outcomes, and how to convert volatility into usable cash flow with risk parity principles. We share practical playbooks for different life chapters. If you’re sitting on a seven-figure portfolio and dreaming of a sabbatical, hold 1–2 years of cash and let the rest compound in accumulation mode. If you’re leaning toward Coast FI, keep retirement assets in equities while your current work covers life today. If you aim to fund 4–5 percent distributions to family or philanthropy, build a portfolio with multiple return drivers—equities for growth, Treasuries for crisis defense, gold and commodities for inflation, and managed futures for trend resilience—plus disciplined rebalancing to support withdrawals through market cycles. We also clear up product confusion: GLD lives under the broader ETP umbrella while functioning like an ETF to most users—structure matters for risks and taxes, so read the prospectus and know what you own. To ground it all, we review the latest market moves—small-cap value strength, gold’s lead, managed futures momentum—and walk through sample portfolios, including rebalancing thresholds and what’s working now. Ready to align your portfolio with your real timeline and purpose? Hit play, subscribe for more smart, research-backed investing talk, and leave a review to help others find the show. Support the show

    40 min
  3. FEB 4

    Episode 485: Discerning Managed Futures From Momentum, Monte Carlo Simulation Mania, And Variable Withdrawal Mechanisms

    In this episode we answer questions from Ben, Todd, and Tom. We discuss how managed futures differ from momentum, differentiating Monte Carlo simulations and why you need to be careful with parameterized simulations, and flexible withdrawal strategies generally and applied to the sample portfolios. LInks: QMOM and DBMF comparison and correlations:  testfol.io/analysis?s=5lCK1KCsAsx Morningstar 2025 State of Retirement Income Report:  Morningstar State_of_Retirement_Income_2025.pdf - Google Drive Portfolio Charts Annual Returns Calculator:  Annual Returns – Portfolio Charts Stress Test Comparisons (Golden Butterfly, Golden Ratio, 60/40 and Three Fund Portfolios) Starting in 2000 with 5% withdrawal rate and CPI Inflation:  testfol.io/?s=7jwHMS4FogB Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Ever wondered why a momentum stock fund and a managed futures fund can look similar on the surface yet behave like opposites when markets lurch? We dig into the real differences between equity momentum strategies like QMOM and multi-asset trend programs like DBMF, explaining how managed futures trade across stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies with the ability to go long and short. That breadth—and the discipline to follow trends over weeks to a year—creates low correlation to traditional portfolios and turns macro chaos into potential opportunity. From there, we tackle the Monte Carlo confusion that trips up even seasoned planners. We compare historical shuffles that preserve real-world co-movements with parameterized simulations that assume normal distributions and independence—two assumptions markets love to break. You’ll hear why fat tails matter, how “impossible” scenarios sneak into naïve models, and where to find usable inputs without double-counting inflation. We also share a simple framework: use multiple calculators, add historical stress tests starting in rough windows like 1968 or 2000, and look for consistent results across tools before you trust any forecast. Finally, we turn to retirement withdrawals and the habits that actually hold up. Instead of rigid CPI bumps, we walk through constant-percentage withdrawals, guardrails, and the reality that retiree spending tends to run at CPI minus 1–2 percent outside healthcare. We highlight how flexible rules can raise sustainable withdrawal rates and why resilient portfolio design—think Golden Butterfly or Golden Ratio—can outperform a classic 60/40 under severe sequences. If you’re ready to upgrade your plan with better diversification, better testing, and smarter spending rules, you’ll leave with practical steps you can apply today. Enjoyed the conversation? Subscribe, leave a review, and share this episode with a friend who’s serious about building a portfolio that survives bad markets. What testing change will you make this week? Support the show

    30 min
  4. FEB 1

    Episode 484: Portfolio Considerations Pre-Retirement, Accounting For Taxes, Data, Catherine O'Hara And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 30, 2026

    In this episode we answer emails from Sebastian, Mark, and James.  We discuss the purpose of treasury bond allocations, annuity cash flows, and where rentals fit, goofy accounting for taxes, a bridge to social security and answer questions about Testfolio and data sources.  And celebrate Catherine O'hara. And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Additional Links: Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center Portfolio Charts Article re Accumulation in an RP-style Portfolio:  Minimize Your Miss – Portfolio Charts Immediate Annuities:  Immediate Annuities - Income Annuity Quote Calculator - ImmediateAnnuities.com Portfolio Charts Data Sources Page:  Data Sources – Portfolio Charts Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary Markets threw a curveball this week: gold ripped, then slipped; small cap value popped; long bonds mostly yawned. We use the noise as a lesson in clarity—every asset in a risk parity mix has a job. Treasuries aren’t for yield; they’re for recession insurance and rebalancing power when stocks sag. Gold, managed futures, and value are there to diversify return drivers so you’re not betting your future on a single story. We dig into a listener’s Golden Ratio allocation with annuitized payouts and single-family rentals. The key is classification. Treat rentals as income if you’re keeping them, or as a future lump sum if you plan to sell—but don’t try to count both the cash flow and the equity for rebalancing. We also tackle the “can I replace treasuries with X?” question, and explain why the only valid substitute must reliably rise when recessions hit. If it won’t go up when growth falls, it isn’t doing the bond job. From there, we clean up two planning snags that trip up even seasoned DIY investors. First, the tax myth: don’t “tax-adjust” asset values across accounts. Taxes are expenses, not asset haircuts. Optimize location, model annual tax liabilities, and keep the allocation true on the asset side. Second, Social Security modeling: the most practical move is to add it as an inflation-indexed future cash flow in a robust planner. If you need a present value for net worth, price a comparable inflation-adjusted deferred annuity instead of guessing with discount rates. For bridging years before benefits start, a TIPS ladder can unlock higher, earlier spending without warping your core portfolio. We wrap with a clear performance snapshot and withdrawals across eight sample portfolios, from the classic Golden Butterfly and Golden Ratio to levered experiments and a return-stacked build. The thread through it all is discipline: know each asset’s purpose, keep cash intentional, rebalance when markets hand you spread, and let validated data—not hunches—drive decisions. Support the show

    52 min
  5. JAN 29

    Episode 483: Parsing Amateur Gold And Cash Ideas, Expert Links, Managed Futures, Testfolio Hints, And Other Hijinks

    In this episode we answer emails from Gregory, Rick and Graham.  We discuss some more amateur ideas on gold and cash buffers, and modeling managed futures, and we explain why costs and liquidity often matter more than the story you’re told. We share tools, back-tests, and resources that help DIY investors build smarter, calmer portfolios. Graham's  "Fall Back" instructions for inputs for Testfolio:  "For example, since you typically use DBMF but would want to back test further, one can write DBMFSIM?FB=KMLMSIM which will use DBMF as far back as it can, then fall back to using KMLM. Did you know these can be chained? One can fallback onto commodities beyond the KMLM simulation, like this: DBMFSIM?FB=KMLMSIM?FB=GSGSIM." Links: Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center Three Ingredients:  Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios – Portfolio Charts Video on Hedge Fund Market Wizards:  Jack Schwager presents: 15 Hedge Fund Market Wizards trading secrets & insights in their own words Infinite Loops Podcast with Cliff Asness:  Surviving the Meme Stock Bubble | Cliff Asness Damodaran 2026 Critiques of CAPE Ratios:  Aswath Damodaran 2026 Critiques of CAPE Ratios.pdf - Google Drive Managed Futures/Trend Following Paper for Download:  A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing Graham's Full House Portfolio:  testfol.io/?s=5cyAAHgo1OH Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: What if the biggest edge in your portfolio isn’t a hot strategy but the boring details—costs, liquidity, and the ability to rebalance in seconds? We dig into listener questions on gold, long-term treasuries, cash buffers, and managed futures, and we separate evidence from stories that sound good but quietly erode returns. We look at why an 80 percent stocks and 20 percent gold mix can be fine during accumulation, yet struggle in retiree withdrawals when stocks and gold sometimes fall together. Then we explain how duration from long treasuries can change the drawdown math, especially in recessions. We also push back on the temptation to chase yield on vaulted physical gold. Once you add spreads, storage, transaction fees, and redemption friction, that “yield” comes at a cost, and you sacrifice the instant liquidity your rebalancing plan needs. Gold ETFs give you precise position sizing and near-zero friction so you can trim, add, and move on. On cash, we keep it blunt: a small buffer for bills makes sense, but large multi-year cash cushions drag safe withdrawal rates over time. Replenish cash by trimming whichever asset has run hot—simple rules, fewer regrets. For listeners trying to model managed futures, we cover why commodity funds are poor proxies and how to use Testfolio’s fallback feature to extend DBMF or KMLM backtests across regimes. The larger message is pragmatic: stop searching for the perfect allocation and build a naively diversified mix that can handle growth, inflation, and shocks without prediction. Want to see how this plays out? Hit play, take notes, and test a small, real-money experiment in a side account to learn your own behavior. Support the show

    43 min
  6. JAN 25

    Episode 482: Reviewing "The Score", Tweaking A Portfolio, And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 23, 2026

    In this episode we answer emails from Isaiah and Mike.  We unpack how metrics hijack meaning and show how a diversified, risk-parity approach lets you thrive without chasing perfect scores, review our business model and help Mike tweak his portfolio selections. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Links: Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center "The Score" Video Summary:  The Score Summary Video.mp4 - Google Drive "The Score" Slideshow:  The Score Summary Slideshow.pdf - Google Drive How To Do An Asset Swap Video from Risk Parity Chronicles:  How to Do an Asset Swap Breathless AI-Bot Summary:   Numbers promise clarity. But when scores start steering our choices, we trade meaning for metrics—and investing gets harder, not easier. We take you inside a listener-recommended book on gamification and value capture, then connect its insights to practical retirement planning, rebalancing discipline, and the craft of building portfolios that can handle ambiguity. First, we break down a simple framework to resist metric addiction: practice metric mindfulness, guard “opaque” spaces where you don’t track every moment, and treat numbers as disposable tools. That shift matters for health, career, and especially money. Chasing precision in complex markets leads to false confidence and needless anxiety; aiming for ballparks and using satisficing rules keeps you steady. From there, we dive into performance and positioning. While large growth stalls, small cap value, gold, commodities, and managed futures are pulling their weight. We share how diversified, risk-parity style allocations harness those uncorrelated trends without prediction—and why selling strength into rebalancing is the quiet edge that compounds over time. You’ll also hear clear, practical guidance on tax location and cash: put growth in Roth accounts, anchor bonds in tax-deferred space, keep cash lean if you have flexible liquidity, and rebalance across accounts at the household level. Underneath the tickers is a broader life stance. Money, power, and fame are easy to count and easy to chase. Relationships, time autonomy, and meaningful work resist scoring yet deliver the lasting returns. Let numbers serve your purpose, not replace it. If you’re ready to think beyond dashboards and build a portfolio—and a life—built for uncertainty, you’ll feel right at home. Enjoy the conversation? Follow the show, leave a review, and share it with a friend who needs a saner way to invest. Support the show

    46 min
  7. JAN 21

    Episode 481: Dr. Bill's Excellent Adventure Into Risk Parity Retirement

    In this episode we read a lengthy email missive from our good friend Dr. Bill on reaching financial independence a few years early, designing a risk parity portfolio with an advisor, and facing the emotional fog that follows. We share how to replace optimization with intention and use time, not money, as the measure of value, and touch on these points: • hitting FI earlier than planned after high savings, growth and a modest windfall • shifting from global cap weight to risk parity for steadier withdrawals • choosing fee‑for‑service advice and aligning incentives • handling FI emotions, identity shifts and one‑more‑year urges • using four idols as red flags for decisions • buying happiness through relationships, experiences, time‑buying and generosity • satisficing small choices to protect energy and attention • building post‑career structure with short chapters and yearly subtractions • treating time as the scarce currency, not money Links: Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center Dr. Bill's Interview on Bigger Pockets Money:  The Decumulation Strategy After Hitting Financial Independence | Bill Yount Kardinal Financial:  Kardinal Financial — Flat Fee & Fee-Only Financial Advisor Bryan Minogue | Madison, WI Afford Anything Episode #618:  They Ran Out of Money. I Didn’t. Here’s Why. Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: The number hits, the accounts say you’re free, and yet the feeling isn’t triumph—it’s fog. We dive into that messy, honest space after financial independence with a candid letter from Dr. Bill, a late starter who reached FI years ahead of schedule. His story opens the door to two challenges at once: how to build a portfolio that steadies withdrawals in uncertain markets, and how to build a life that isn’t ruled by “one more year.” We start with the money. Risk parity isn’t a magic trick, but it’s a powerful framework for retirees and late starters: diversify by risk, not headlines, so stocks, bonds, and real assets share the load. That balance can dampen drawdowns and reduce sequence risk when you’re finally taking income. We highlight why fee‑for‑service advice beats legacy models, what to expect from a thoughtful plan, and how to avoid turning markets into a source of constant anxiety. Sleep matters as much as return. Then we face the human side: identity, purpose, and the gravitational pull of more. Using a simple lens—avoid the four idols of money, power, fame, and unhealthy pleasure—we redirect focus to the only currency that compounds after FI: time. We break down practical ways wealth buys happiness through relationships, experiences that spark flow, time‑buying that deletes chores and commutes, and generosity that deepens community. You’ll hear tactical rules to cut over‑optimization, pilot a lighter work schedule, structure short chapters instead of a rigid life plan, and run annual “stop doing” audits to keep your days aligned with what matters. If you’re nearing FI, newly independent, or stuck in the fog, this conversation offers a clear path forward: design a portfolio for resilience, and design a life for meaning. Subscribe, share with a friend who’s wrestling with “enough,” and leave a review to help more DIY investors find a saner way to retire on purpose. Support the show

    55 min
  8. JAN 17

    Episode 480: Tail Risk Strategies, Better Approaches Using Diversification And Who To Learn That From, Fund Taxonomy, And Portfolio Reviews As Of January 16, 2026

    In this episode we answer emails from Gregory and Isaiah.  We discuss whether tail-hedged ETFs belong in a retirement portfolio, then map out a cleaner path with Treasuries as recession insurance, a value tilt for equity resilience. We also discuss the problems with relying on voices from popular personal finance unless they are well supported by professional and academic teachings, and the importance of the four quadrant model in understanding correlations and diversification.  We also a practical taxonomy for classifying holdings. And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio. Additional Links: Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna Center Links Page at Risk Parity Radio:  Links | Risk Parity Radio Analysis of Tail Risk ETFs:  testfol.io/analysis?s=jCSSoT7bFRe Bob Elliot Macro Masterclass:  Bob Elliott, Unlimited Funds – A Macro Masterclass Bob Elliot on Excess Returns:  Understanding Economic Cycles | Bob Elliott "Best of" Bob Elliot on Excess Returns:  Markets Always Return to Economic Reality | Bob Elliott Explains How It Happens Bob Elliot on The Compound:  The Blue Chips of Junk | TCAF 175 Portfolio Tracker:  GitHub - danbuchal/portfolio-tracker: Portfolio Tracker: Track your investments and asset allocation Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary: Looking for protection without sacrificing long-term returns? We dig into a donor’s question about using tail-hedged ETFs like SPD and SPYC for early retirement and explain why constant hedging tends to bleed performance. The core idea is simple: prioritize assets with positive expected returns that also diversify when it matters. That’s where long-term Treasuries serve as recession insurance and why picking the right time horizon for correlation analysis changes everything. From there, we zoom out to the four-quadrant framework—growth and inflation as the axes that drive correlations. Stocks thrive in positive growth with moderate inflation, Treasuries support you in weak growth and disinflation, and assets like gold and managed futures help when inflation shifts. If passive flows are reshaping markets, the practical antidote isn’t a new product; it’s a value tilt on the equity side. History shows value, especially small-cap value, is a reliable counterweight when growth-heavy indexes crack. We also share a clear, DIY method to audit and classify your holdings ahead of retirement. Start with growth vs value as your primary lens, use size as a secondary tilt, and treat international exposure as tertiary since currency swings drive much of the variance. Tools like Morningstar and Portfolio Tracker make it easy to roll up accounts, view factor exposure, and keep your targets on track. Finally, we walk through our sample portfolios and a crisp market snapshot—gold’s strength, steady REITs and commodities, and how leveraged mixes are faring—to show how these principles play out in real allocations. If this helps you build a stronger plan, follow the show, share it with a friend who’s rethinking their hedge, and leave a quick review to help more DIY investors find us. Support the show

    54 min
4.5
out of 5
279 Ratings

About

Risk Parity Radio is a podcast about investing located at www.riskparityradio.com.  RPR explores risk-parity style portfolios comprised of uncorrelated or negatively correlated asset classes -- stocks, selected bonds, gold, managed futures, and other easily accessible fund options for the DIY investor.  The goal is to construct portfolios that are robust and can be drawn down on in perpetuity, and to maximize projected Safe Withdrawal Rates regardless of projected overall returns.

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