Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, sees "bells ringing" on the AI tech trade with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Nvidia showing tiredness, and warns the question is whether the baton can be passed to other sectors without the market falling apart. His three favorite groups for 2026 are energy (where $60 oil is "one of the cheapest assets in the world" and he sees $70+ minimum), agriculture (fertilizer stocks like Mosaic and Nutrient), and beaten-down consumer staples offering "bond-like dividend yields with equity-like upside." On Venezuela, he disagrees with the oil-for-midterms thesis - it's really about stiff-arming China, Russia, and Iran, and won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years anyway. He's been trimming silver after its vertical move toward $100 but still likes gold driven by central bank buying and dollar diversification. His biggest concern: if we lose the AI trade, its dominance is so large it could take everything down with it. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia Links: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/ Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvar Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Boockvar 01:18 2025 retro: World markets did really well, fire lit under international markets 03:15 Bells ringing on AI tech trade - Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia tiredness 05:45 China competition in AI - models more applicable, monetizing faster 06:30 Bifurcated economy: Manufacturing recession, lower-middle income spending weak 07:45 Data center build out - question of when not if it slows 08:30 Delta earnings: Premium cabin strong, main cabin no growth 09:15 Europe bifurcated too: Germany/France struggling, Spain/Greece doing well 11:36 Three favorite groups for 2026: Energy, ag, consumer staples 12:15 Energy: Bearish sentiment extreme, contrarian setup, CFTC net longs at 15-year lows 13:30 Venezuela: 5-10 years before notable production increase 14:15 OPEC production lagging quotas - most running at full capacity 15:00 US shale production slowing, rolling over even in Permian 15:45 Peak oil demand pushed out - hybrids winning, EV demand delayed 16:30 Ag: Fertilizer stocks - Mosaic, Nutrient - down and out value plays 17:15 Consumer staples destroyed over 12 months - deep value now 17:52 Names: Kimberly Clark, Nestle, Pepsi, ConAgra, Coke, Reynolds 18:24 Oil at $60 is one of the cheapest assets in the world - sees $70 minimum 19:15 Energy holdings: Exxon, BP, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Oxy, Noble, EQT 23:44 Venezuela won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years - focused on near-term 25:32 Inflation: Conflicting dynamics - services decelerating, goods inflation returning 27:00 Next Fed chair will have inflation dilemma - sticky around 3% 28:45 Services inflation could rebound in back half of 2026 as apartment supply absorbed 29:01 Reaction to Powell subpoena 30:09 Powell is done cutting - will be playing 18 holes in June 31:28 Last Fed cut was not necessary - took neutral rate below 1% 32:30 Need low and stable prices first, then labor market improves 35:34 Gold north of $4,600 - levels don't surprise, maybe pace did 36:27 Silver at $92 - trimming position, tree needs to take a breather 37:30 Gold thesis: Central bank buying, dollar diversification has more legs 38:49 2025 lesson: World woke up to opportunities outside mag seven 40:22 What not to own: Mag seven, long duration bonds 40:46 Japan matters for global rates - JGB yields rising, canary in coal mine 42:00 Bullish emerging market local currency bonds - better finances, cheap currencies 42:57 EM names: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia 43:45 Biggest risk: Losing AI trade and gap up in long-term rates 44:24 Optimism: Broadening out continues, international markets, commodity trade has legs 45:03 Parting thoughts: Investors need to be flexible in their thinking
