The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche
  • 4.6 (87)
  • Investing
  • Semiweekly

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

  1. 1d ago

    #428 Jim Bianco: After 6 Years Bearish, I’m Finally Turning on Bonds — Why 5% Is the New Normal

    Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, joins Julia La Roche in studio for the first time in a year with a big shift: after six years of being bearish on bonds, he’s turned neutral and even launched a bond fund. He argues 5% yields are fair value, not a crisis, because we’re now in a world of 3% inflation and 2% growth. He says that world exists by choice: Washington won’t let cheap Chinese goods back in, as shown by the $15,000 Chinese electric car the U.S. has effectively banned, and wage-driven services inflation stays sticky. On the midterms, he says the key question is whether moderate Democrats can outvote the Democratic Socialists. Bianco also explains why Silicon Valley thinks it has too little compute while Wall Street fears it has too much, why he thinks banks are blocking AI agents to protect $120 billion a year in profits, and why AI is a bubble with years left to run. He explains why a divided Fed under Kevin Warsh is a good thing. And his contrarian call: the labor market is fine, because with a shrinking workforce the economy needs only about 30,000 new jobs a year. Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors: Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links:   BiancoResearch.com   BiancoAdvisors.com x.com/biancoresearch Timestamps 0:00 Preview: a low-risk entry for bonds 0:19 Welcome Jim Bianco 1:02 Why he turned on bonds after six years 3:25 What would make him bullish 4:14 A value call, not a call for lower yields 6:54 How high would yields have to go? 7:23 The biggest risk: inflation 11:42 Why 3% inflation is a choice 12:10 The $15,000 car America won’t let in 14:20 Why services inflation stays sticky 15:16 Get used to 3% inflation 17:57 Midterms: which Democratic Party wins? 21:16 What it means for markets 22:39 Last week’s drawdown: Silicon Valley vs. Wall Street on AI 25:52 Why personal AI agents are game changers 27:37 Why banks are blocking AI agents 29:19 Amazon vs. Perplexity 31:28 Is AI a bubble? 33:46 A genuinely different Fed under Warsh 35:50 Does a divided Fed mean more volatility? 38:35 Contrarian call: the labor market is fine 40:31 Why we only need 30,000 jobs a year 42:33 Wrap-up The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

  2. 4d ago

    #427 Chris Whalen: Warsh’s Credibility Is Eroding, Private Credit Beats Regulators, Mortgage Pain Ahead

    In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris reacts to the Fed’s 10–2 hold. He compares Kevin Warsh to Paul Volcker, who he says paused his inflation fight before the 1980 election for political reasons, and argues Warsh’s inaction is eroding his credibility. He predicts Democrats will gain 20+ House seats in next week’s midterms, with the Senate a toss-up. He also explains why tech companies will have to fund AI with stock instead of debt, and why he thinks half of planned data centers can’t get built. Whalen calls the NAIC’s retreat on policing private ratings a big win for private credit, warning that annuity and life insurance holders now have “nobody looking out for you.” He points to Baltimore mortgage fraud as an example. Plus: rising government mortgage delinquencies, refinances falling below 20% of volume, his scoop on UWM’s servicing sale, why 3.4% GDP growth is fueled by a $2 trillion deficit, and a viewer question on Flagstar’s preferred stock. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome to The Wrap 1:18 Warsh and Volcker: playing politics? 3:02 Is Warsh’s credibility eroding? 4:38 Midterm predictions 6:09 Is the bond market tightening for the Fed? 7:35 Why half of planned data centers can’t happen 9:19 Can Warsh break with the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell era? 12:02 What people are missing about Warsh 13:30 Private credit beats the insurance regulators 16:41 What it means for annuity holders 17:32 Baltimore’s mortgage fraud problem 18:37 Are the banks exposed? 19:33 Mortgage pain ahead: delinquencies and Ginnie Mae 22:46 Is there a contrarian case for UWM? 25:54 3.4% GDP and the $2 trillion deficit 27:24 Iran war: how much inflation is transitory? 29:14 Viewer question: Flagstar’s preferred stock 31:03 What to watch after the midterms The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

  3. 6d ago

    #426 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh Could Slam the Economy Into Recession — Fed Day Reaction

    On Fed Day, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, joins Julia in studio to react to the Fed’s 10–2 vote to hold rates. She calls it a hawkish hold and says the real surprise was Governor Lisa Cook’s dissent alongside Beth Hammack’s, a move she sees as political after renewed attacks from President Trump. Booth calls Kevin Warsh’s press conference “word salad” and says his refusal to call financial conditions tight protects his narrative more than it reflects reality. She warns that hyperscalers are on a debt treadmill they can’t stop, and that more than 100% of GDP growth is now coming from AI. Further tightening, she argues, could slam the economy into a recession rather than ease it into one. She says Warsh is ignoring the inflation breadth measure he told markets to watch at Jackson Hole, along with the underemployed renters missing from jobless claims. The Fed’s biggest blind spot, she says, is the credit market, especially with foreign investors piled into the AI trade. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links:     Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth   Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655 Timestamps: 0:00 Preview: “They can’t afford the rent” 0:26 Welcome: Fed Day reaction 0:57 Lisa Cook’s surprise dissent 2:54 Why it was a hawkish hold 3:57 Warsh and financial conditions: “in touch with his narrative” 5:14 An unsatisfying press conference 6:13 Liquidity into year-end and the $100 billion IPO 7:32 The hyperscalers’ debt treadmill 8:25 Could Warsh slam the economy into recession? 8:47 What jobless claims are missing 12:13 Lessons from Halloween 2018 and the Powell pivot 13:10 How fast the rate-cut debate could flip 13:57 Fewer Fed meetings and the risk of an emergency cut 14:39 “Fed Up” again: renters and the underemployed 15:36 Inflation breadth: Warsh’s own yardstick 17:02 More than 100% of GDP growth is AI 18:09 What a blue wave could mean for AI 18:55 What the Fed is underestimating: credit 19:55 Wrap-up

  4. Oct 27

    #425 Axel Merk: I Sat Down With Kevin Warsh — What the Fed Is Really Up To and Where Gold Goes Next

    Axel Merk, founder and CIO of Merk Investments, which manages about $2.5 billion, joins Julia ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. He explains why Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s goal of “removing a dose of accommodation” means a tightening bias without a sledgehammer. He also explains why gold has fallen during the Iran war: markets treat it as a temporary supply shock that pushes real rates higher. And he describes the decoupling he’s watching for that could free gold from the conflict. Merk, who met with Warsh at the Fed in August, says Warsh has been consistent and is trying to pull the Fed back from micromanaging the economy and from heavy forward guidance. He also describes the institutional pushback Warsh faces. He breaks down the four kinds of gold buyers and sees near-zero odds of a hike this week. He warns that the AI debt binge could eventually force lower rates. And he argues that AI’s massive capital needs are leveling the playing field for gold miners, which he calls some of the cheapest assets out there. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links:https://www.merkinvestments.com/https://x.com/axelmerkTimestamps: Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Axel Merk1:05 The big picture: Warsh’s “dose of accommodation”3:17 Iran, the Israeli election and the midterms5:27 Why gold fell during the Iran war7:49 Will gold decouple from Iran?9:50 The four types of gold buyers12:18 Who is Kevin Warsh? Meeting him at the Fed15:16 What Fed independence really means17:40 Forward guidance: referee, not player20:24 What it’s like in the room21:07 Why not just abolish the Fed?24:18 What markets look like with a narrower Fed27:34 Blaming the Fed for populism29:56 Warsh’s cat-herding challenge31:18 Hike or hold this week?33:26 Volatility, cash and how to size risk36:03 Why he’s heavy in gold miners39:13 Parting thought: invest in your health The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

  5. Oct 24

    #424 Chris Whalen: Fannie & Freddie Stuck, Foreclosures Rising, Credit Problems Coming

    In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac a “pump and dump.” He explains why the GSEs won’t be released during Trump’s term and lays out his own fix: buy back the public common shares and leave the U.S. as the sole shareholder. He breaks down Auction.com data showing foreclosure auctions up 25% from a year ago as COVID-era protections end and housing shifts to a buyer’s market, and he shares his advice for sellers: price to sell. Whalen also covers REIT earnings, United Wholesale Mortgage’s strategy shift and Annaly’s return to book value. He explains why he’s less bullish than his friend Ralph on 10-year Treasuries near 5%, and whether the Fed will hike or hold at next week’s meeting. He says he’s long energy, adding to gold on weakness and cautious on financials as credit problems surface. He closes with the risk he thinks nobody is watching closely enough: an unexpected turn in the Russia-Ukraine war. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome to The Wrap 1:04 Bessent, Fannie and Freddie, and the “pump and dump” 3:48 Whalen’s fix: the U.S. as sole shareholder 5:08 Why “privatization” without control is a fraud 7:48 Foreclosure auctions up 25% 09:45 Is there a credit problem in housing? 10:56 Advice for sellers: price to sell 13:08 REIT earnings and UWM’s new strategy 14:19 Annaly back to book value 15:42 The case for 10-year Treasuries 19:14 Why Whalen isn’t as bullish on bonds 20:16 Bonds vs. gold vs. cash 22:06 October FOMC: hike or hold? 23:31 Natural gas down, diesel still high 24:59 Positioning: energy, gold and caution on financials 26:43 How income investing works 28:41 The biggest risk nobody’s talking about 32:00 What to watch next week The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

  6. Oct 22

    #423 Jordi Visser: Why the AI Bears Are Wrong — and the One Asset He’d Bet On Right Now

    Long-time macro investor Jordi Visser, founder of Visser Labs, makes his in-studio debut with a bold message: the only macro force that matters right now is artificial intelligence. He explains why the economy has become far less rate-sensitive since the iPhone launched in 2007, and why Anthropic and OpenAI’s leap from $30 billion to roughly $170 billion in combined annual recurring revenue marks the start of agentic commerce, with personal AI agents managing more of our lives. He lays out his “bank-pocalypse” thesis, where agents and crypto compress bank valuations by moving money to better yields instantly. He also argues that many veteran macro voices are wrong about AI because they don’t use it. Visser traces his own shift from perma-bear to tech optimist, from closing out his book before Lehman in 2008 to a life-changing trip to Silicon Valley’s Singularity University. He makes the bull case for agentic compute, names hacking and government pushback as the biggest risks, and closes with his most contrarian call: crypto, which he sees as a 100-to-1 long shot that could be the best-performing asset of the next year even if the S&P goes nowhere. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: X: https://x.com/jvisserlabs YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserlabs Website: https://ai.22vresearch.com/ Substack: substack.com/@visserlabs Timestamps:0:00 Preview: the beginning of agentic commerce0:42 Welcome Jordi Visser1:15 The only macro that matters: AI4:14 Why the old playbook broke after 20076:44 AI’s iPhone moment: personal agents arrive10:07 How big is agentic commerce?10:36 Two economies: AI-native vs. enterprise12:28 The “bank-pocalypse” thesis14:01 An agentic run on the banks17:38 What a personal AI agent does for you18:56 The generational divide on AI24:50 2008: closing out before Lehman26:38 From perma-bear to “no more recessions”28:26 Silicon Valley and the singularity31:04 What he tells his kids about AI32:31 Why Bitcoin is the purest AI trade35:43 All moats are disappearing37:37 Why AI is so emotional for people41:08 Earnings up 30%, jobs at zero43:08 “AI victim status” and the doom narrative45:38 Climbing the ladder at Morgan Stanley48:08 Lifelong learning and longevity50:00 The bull case: agentic compute52:30 Is the AI debt a problem?55:00 The biggest risks: hacking and government pushback58:44 His contrarian call for next year: crypto1:02:27 Why the S&P could be flat a year from now1:03:27 The Peter Lynch lesson and a 100-to-1 long shot The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

  7. Oct 20

    #422 David Rosenberg: The Fed Is Going to Trip, Recession Odds Now Above 50%

    David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring, says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenberg warns that Kevin Warsh’s Fed risks a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock with a flat yield curve. He also flags fading fiscal stimulus, midterm gridlock and canceled data center projects as headwinds that put recession odds above 50-50 for 2027. His prescription is to de-risk without going to zero equities: shift toward Treasuries (two-year and 10-year notes), defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and REITs, gold, and some cash, so you’re one of the “strong hands” when the cycle turns. Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052 Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/ Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Bear-Bullring-Independent-Thinking-Protects Website: https://rosenbergresearch.com/ X: https://x.com/EconguyRosie Timestamps: 0:00 Intro: Protect your capital 0:21 Welcome David Rosenberg 1:36 Most imbalances in 40 years: a narrow market & fragile economy 6:57 What’s propping up the economy: AI spending & the wealth effect 10:23 Market call: CAPE above 40 & a negative equity risk premium 13:46 Why nobody calls it a bubble until it bursts 18:29 Don’t extrapolate: lessons from oil in 2008 23:17 Fed chasing headline inflation & recession odds 26:09 Is Warsh’s Fed dangerous? 31:32 Four supply shocks & where tariff inflation went 36:09 Labor market weaker than perceived 37:51 Will the Fed be forced to cut? The rookie Fed chair pattern 41:49 Greenspan, 1987 & testing a new Fed chair 42:40 Midterms, fiscal gridlock & a growth slowdown 45:47 AI backlash & data center cancellations 50:33 2001 recession, valuations & savings rate risk 53:42 Where to be on the Treasury curve 54:48 Bonds under-owned & boomers’ 55% stock exposure 1:00:56 Recession vs. growth slowdown 1:01:59 AI credit cracks: Oracle & CoreWeave 1:04:29 Gold outlook & why Treasuries 1:09:35 Book: Bear in the Bull Ring & independent thinking The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

  8. Oct 17

    #421 Chris Whalen: Double-Digit Inflation, Falling Home Prices & a Fed Forced to Hike

    In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly. Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/ Links:     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing ⁠ Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome back 00:43 Trump’s $5,000 dividend promise: “bread and circuses” 02:54 Could Democrats see a 50-seat House swing? 03:16 Affordability as the top issue: gas, diesel and the Iran war 07:16 Are we on a double-digit inflation path? 08:28 Fed hike ahead? Yellen says “transitory” again 09:44 Demand destruction, fertilizer and food prices 11:31 Takeaways from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference 13:33 Stan Middleman’s outlook: smaller price reset than expected 15:24 Construction costs and replacement value as a price floor 17:13 Will the Fed hike before the midterms? Warsh, Lisa Cook and the Supreme Court 18:57 The mood in mortgage: layoffs and a tougher 2027 20:36 Is there a bull case for United Wholesale Mortgage? 21:58 Bank earnings: JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s $1.5B fine 24:36 The AI reset and circular finance 26:59 Viewer question: banks holding low-rate COVID mortgages 29:55 Viewer question: the outlook for Annaly 31:34 What Whalen is watching next The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

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Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

Information

  • Creator
    Julia La Roche
  • Years Active
    2022 - 2026
  • Episodes
    431
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Julia La Roche
  • Show Website
    The Julia La Roche Show

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