Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack Farley
  • 4.9 (162)
  • Investing
  • Updated Biweekly

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

  1. 2d ago

    Stacy Rasgon: “Demand Is Off The Charts” in Semiconductors… And Set To Double Again Soon

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Semiconductor earnings have roughly doubled this year, yet chip multiples have compressed and the stocks are still well off their June highs. Stacy Rasgon, Managing Director and Senior Analyst covering U.S. semiconductors and semicap equipment at Bernstein, joins Jack to explain what the market fears and why he thinks the cycle peak isn't here yet. Fresh off his annual Silicon Valley roadshow, Stacy says demand is "off the charts," nobody has enough compute, and the real constraints are land, power, and clean rooms rather than customer appetite. He explains why Nvidia and Broadcom have lagged the "bottleneck" trades in memory, optics, and power, and why both could trade at 11–12x earnings if their growth targets hold. The conversation covers the HBM-driven memory squeeze, his path to $300 billion-plus in wafer fab equipment spending, and why he leans toward Applied Materials in semicap. Stacy also explains why he doesn't hate Intel for the first time in his career, why traditional cycle indicators may no longer work, and how today's AI buildout differs from the dot-com bubble. Recorded October 5, 2026.  Stacy Rasgon on X https://x.com/Srasgon Stacy Rasgon on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/stacy-rasgon-6924963/ Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Important Information  The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before  investing.  There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.  An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/  Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.  Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.  Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.  The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    Stacy Rasgon: “Demand Is Off The Charts” in Semiconductors… And Set To Double Again Soon

  2. 4d ago

    The Most Extreme Shipping Market in History, Explained | J Mintzmyer on Why Oil Tanker Rates Are Up 25x and Why It Can’t Last (and Why Dry Bulk, not Tankers, is the Next Shipping Boom)

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Crude tanker rates have exploded to more than $1 million per day on some Middle East Gulf to China voyages, roughly 25 times normal levels, as the Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz throw global oil shipping into chaos. J Mintzmyer, founder of Value Investors Edge, joins Jack to explain why disruption and inefficiency are rocket fuel for ship owners, why "ton miles" are the real commodity, and why real-time AIS ship-tracking data in the Strait can't be trusted. J argues today's spot rates are unsustainable on a timescale of days or weeks, warns that the BWET freight ETF (up roughly 4,000% this year) could get smashed when rates turn, and lays out the wave of new tanker supply set to arrive in 2027–2028. He separates rates, ship values, and tanker equities, flagging Nordic American (NAT) as an avoid, naming Okeanis Eco Tankers (ECO) and TORM (TRMD) as the quality names, and explaining why product tankers may finally be catching up. We also cover the aging dark fleet, a potential US diesel export ban, and why J sees dry bulk as the most attractive segment in shipping today, with CMB Tech (CMBT) as his top pick and China's push into Guinean iron ore as a major tailwind. Recorded September 30, 2026. J Mintzmyer on X https://x.com/mintzmyer Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Pieces Discussed: “CMB.TECH: Updates From Our Top Shipping Pick Of 2026”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4944783-cmbtech-updates-from-our-top-shipping-pick-of-2026?gt=e5bc41646f6cc54e “Dry Bulk Shipping Momentum Poised To Continue”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4946334-dry-bulk-shipping-momentum-poised-to-continue?gt=b81339756f928160 “Here's What Happens To Shipping When The Strait of Hormuz Reopens”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949498-heres-what-happens-to-shipping-when-strait-of-hormuz-reopens Value Investor’s Edge: https://www.vieresearch.com/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Important Information  The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before  investing.  There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.  An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/  Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.  Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund. Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.  The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    The Most Extreme Shipping Market in History, Explained | J Mintzmyer on Why Oil Tanker Rates Are Up 25x and Why It Can’t Last (and Why Dry Bulk, not Tankers, is the Next Shipping Boom)

  3. Oct 1

    Ed Zitron on Anthropic's IPO (S-1), AI Debt, and Counterparty Risk

    This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Ed Zitron, author of the Where's Your Ed At newsletter and host of the Better Offline podcast, returns to Monetary Matters to break down Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus, as reported by Reuters. Ed argues that in 2025 Anthropic spent $2.75 for every dollar of revenue, worse than OpenAI's $2.60, and that nearly half its sales ran through Google and Amazon, two companies that also compete with it. We discuss Anthropic's $518 billion in compute commitments, why AI "run rate" figures can be misleading, and what the reported surge in 2026 revenue does and doesn't tell us. Ed also gives his take on Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots, and on whether AI agents can win over consumers. Then we turn to the credit markets: CoreWeave's borrowing costs, Oracle's ratings risk, data center SPVs trading below par, and how much of this debt sits with private credit lenders. Ed closes with his predictions for the Anthropic IPO and what he expects the AI build-out to look like by this time next year. Recorded afternoon of September 30, 2026. Ed Zitron on X https://x.com/edzitron Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Pieces Discussed: “Dead Money” (Sep 29, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/ “Premium: The Hater's Guide To AI Debt (Part 2)” (Sep 25, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/premium-the-haters-guide-to-ai-debt-part-2/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Important Information  The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before  investing.  There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.  An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/  Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.  Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.  Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.  The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

    Ed Zitron on Anthropic's IPO (S-1), AI Debt, and Counterparty Risk

  4. Sep 30

    Token Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Meta's Muse, Anthropic S1, and Why All Roads Still Lead to NVIDIA

    Ben Pouladian of BEP Research returns to Monetary Matters to break down who's winning and losing in AI right now, starting with Meta's Muse, the consumer agent he calls the "McDonald's version" of AI, and why he thinks its revenue will come mostly from ads rather than subscriptions, especially across WhatsApp-first markets like India and Brazil. Ben explains why the token bill for agentic AI dwarfs the CPU bill, why the key metric is becoming cost per token per megawatt, and why he believes "all roads and rockets lead to NVIDIA." He makes the case against AMD, including his open letter to Lisa Su and the scaling challenges of the Helios rack, and argues that NVIDIA GPUs are the "Rodeo Drive" of digital real estate because they are fungible and financeable in a way custom ASICs are not. Jack pushes back with TrendForce data showing every part of the AI supply chain is tight except GPUs, and Ben responds that commodity bottlenecks like memory and hard drives get crushed once supply catches up, while the true bottleneck is powered, permitted land. They discuss the growing data center backlash and whether the base case should be 25 gigawatts rather than 43, Anthropic's S-1 and its roughly half-trillion-dollar compute commitments, and whether AI lab revenue can double again next year. The conversation closes with scaling laws, why models will segment like grades of gasoline, AI's move into biology and drug discovery, and stock ideas including Meta, Lam Research, and Lattice Semiconductor. Recorded September 29, 2026. “Meta's Muse Rally Bought the Wrong Layer. We modeled a billion agent users. The investment case turns on activity, token costs and trust”: https://newsletter.bepresearch.com/p/metas-muse-rally-bought-the-wrong?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2 Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Ben Pouladian on X https://x.com/benitoz BEP Research: https://www.bepresearch.com/ Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Token Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Meta's Muse, Anthropic S1, and Why All Roads Still Lead to NVIDIA

  5. Sep 27

    The Private Credit Boom is Over: Redemption Requests Exceed Liquidity | James Elbaor | Marlton LLC

    James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED. The discussion concludes by exploring lucrative upcoming merger opportunities in the public BDC space and analyzing why asset managers utilizing permanent capital vehicles are being rewarded with premium market multiples. Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Follow James on X: https://x.com/jameselbaor Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:42 Private Credit Redemptions Continue 07:03 IPO Window Shuts & Credit Fund M&A 15:28 AI Threat to SaaS Borrowers 16:51 Sponsor Message Plutus 18:17 Private Credit vs Private Equity 24:25 Systemic Risk and Wrappers 29:15 Public vs Private BDC Gap 34:46 Why Interval Funds List 39:44 Alt Managers Valuation Reset 43:33 Permanent Capital Explained 50:17 Hedge Funds vs Private Equity 54:41 Pershing Square Liquidity 01:04:17 Conclusion

    The Private Credit Boom is Over: Redemption Requests Exceed Liquidity | James Elbaor | Marlton LLC

  6. Sep 24

    Why the Fed May Have to Hike Far Higher Than Expected | Henry Peabody on the Fed’s Triple Mandate and Uneven Transmission of Monetary Policy

    Henry Peabody, senior investment strategist at GMO, joins Monetary Matters to explain why the Fed has an unofficial third mandate: managing how credit flows through an economy that is increasingly outside the banks. With private credit and fixed-rate borrowing loosening the link between Fed policy and the real economy, Henry argues that rate hikes are hitting consumers and weaker borrowers while large corporates and the AI complex keep borrowing almost regardless of cost. That bifurcation, he says, means the Fed may have to take rates higher than anyone expects to cool demand, adding risk to markets. Jack and Henry discuss the opacity of private credit, why the credit cycle is "one of the most dependable things in finance," why recoveries on software loans could be close to zero, and the lessons of BDCs in 2008. Henry also shares how GMO is positioning in fixed income: less duration and less vanilla credit risk, more short-duration structured credit, and a preference for emerging market local debt. They close on the dollar, where long-term rates are headed, and the fiscal reckoning coming for Social Security. Recorded September 17, 2026. “Triple Mandate” by Henry Peabody: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/triple-mandate_whitepaper/ Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Why the Fed May Have to Hike Far Higher Than Expected | Henry Peabody on the Fed’s Triple Mandate and Uneven Transmission of Monetary Policy

  7. Sep 23

    Energy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Cause a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower Group

    Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate. Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Follow Eric on X: https://x.com/ericwallerstein Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer 02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields 05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate 07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks 08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility 11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom 14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes 17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break 18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending 20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag 23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup 25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis? 26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention 31:20 Korea Silicon Boom 35:43 Europe Under Pressure 39:25 Middle East Outlook 43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices 48:34 China Oil Strategy 52:10 Big Calls Wrap

    Energy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Cause a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower Group

  8. Sep 20

    Outlook on 5 Key Commodities: Metals Bull Market is Just Getting Started (Gold, Copper, & Uranium) | Jérémie Boyer | Aurelion

    Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research, joins OPM to give his outlook for 5 key commodities. He explains why after avoiding earlier downside volatility in gold he just got the buy signal he’s been waiting for, and why the longer-term AI driven bull thesis on copper is very real and happening now. He also gives his outlook for uranium, fertilizer, and oil and discusses how he and his partner turn commodity views into a portfolio of equities that is up over 100% since inception a little over 1-year ago. Aurelion Research: https://aurelionresearch.com/ Follow Aurelion Research on X: https://x.com/AurelionRsch Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 02:16 Why Gold Could Hit 5K 05:45 Geopolitics Over Rates 09:24 Portfolio Positioning 12:28 Managing Miner Cycles 16:26 Plutus 18:26 Bearish Oil & Fertilizer 20:28 Oil Thesis & China Inventories 33:23 Royalties as Exposure 36:07 Valuing Royalty Companies 42:48 Why Uranium Now 46:10 Uranium Contracts & Supply 51:10 Energy Security and Nuclear Buildout 54:31 Copper Bull Case in AI Era 01:00:05 Picking Copper Stocks 01:06:43 Five Commodities Recap 01:11:26 Closing and Where to Follow

    Outlook on 5 Key Commodities: Metals Bull Market is Just Getting Started (Gold, Copper, & Uranium) | Jérémie Boyer | Aurelion
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Hosts & Guests

4.9
out of 5
162 Ratings

About

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

Information

  • Creator
    Jack Farley
  • Years Active
    2024 - 2026
  • Episodes
    311
  • Rating
    Explicit

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