Credible Commitments

Apriori

Credible Commitments is an independent Ethereum podcast hosted by apriori. The podcast provides a platform for earnest builders to discuss market structure, products, and philosophy. Credibility is upstream of trust. Knowledge is downstream of both. Choose wisely.

  1. Oct 8

    Distilling ePBS, Prop AMMs and Ethereum, ETH, and Previewing the 2026-2027 NBA Season

    In this episode of Credible Commitments I talk to Mike Neuder, PHD student at Princeton University. Mike gives a masterclass on ePBS breaking down the mechanism, the microstructure, the incentives, and likely consequences. Next we dive into PropAMMs on Ethereum focusing on the data. The conversation shifts to ETH as a store of value, issuance, and MEV burn. Finally, we preview the 2026-2027 NBA season.  Timestamps(00:00) - Consensus research - Tezos, Gasper(03:47) - Ethereum ZK prover market design(04:55) - Learnings from time at the EF(06:29) - PBS first principles, building an intuition(12:20) - ePBS and pipelining(15:25) - Payload Timeliness Committee (PTC)(17:43) - ePBS and blobs(18:58) - Trustless payments(24:16) - Small builders and gossiping bids(27:34) - Relay as an aggregator(30:12) - Briefly on the free option problem(33:24) - Fork choice rule uncertainty(35:02) - Unbundling consensus(37:11) - PropAMMs & Ethereum(39:05) - PropAMMs are net negative for total MEV!(42:31) - Following the tx flow through PropAMMs(46:09) - Taker speed bump effectively(48:41) - The negative pAMM feedback loop(51:00) - MCBP and resource pricing(54:47) - MEV Burn? No(57:15) - Against changing ETH issuance(1:00:44) - Issuance's impact on ETH SOV narrative(1:04:48) - Chopping Block issuance change(1:06:33) - Sanctuary technology thesis(1:10:48) - LeBron to the Sixers(1:15:41) - Kawhi Leonard, Steve Ballmer, & cap circumvention(1:22:28) - 2027 NBA Champion predictions Disclaimer Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as financial, technical, or legal advice.

    Distilling ePBS, Prop AMMs and Ethereum, ETH, and Previewing the 2026-2027 NBA Season
  2. Sep 2

    Prediction Markets & The Story the Data Tells

    In this episode of Credible Commitments I chat with Danning S., Research Director at Pantera Capital. We discuss prediction markets from first principles including -- category segmentation, who the users are and how they behave, MEV in crypto markets, oracle resolution mechanisms, and the power of distribution.  (00:00) - Nerding out on data (02:26) - Prediction markets high level view (04:18) - Polymaket US & International (06:14) - Filtering the Data (08:02) - Prediction market segmentation (09:08) - Turnover reveals market attributes (12:40) - MEV on Prediction markets (18:42) - Adversarial taker bots (23:01) - User does not equal wallet (26:28) - Growing prediction market user base (29:59) - Why are trading bots losing money? (31:52) - Culture markets and oracle design (42:20) - Permissionless prediction markets (46:23) - Insider trading (47:15) - High hanging fruit and innovation (49:56) - The super app thesis (52:01) - Does onchain matter? --Danning's Research 1. Flashboys or Superforecasters - A deep dive into Polymarket’s venue growth, user portraits and market structures: https://panteraresearchlab.xyz/research/2026-h1-report-flash-boys-or-superforecasters/ 2. Flashboys or Superforecasters; SBC Presentation at MEV Workshop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85j-lQ04T_c 3. Contact Danning on X: https://x.com/sui414 Disclaimer Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as financial, technical, or legal advice.

    Prediction Markets & The Story the Data Tells

Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
4 Ratings

About

Credible Commitments is an independent Ethereum podcast hosted by apriori. The podcast provides a platform for earnest builders to discuss market structure, products, and philosophy. Credibility is upstream of trust. Knowledge is downstream of both. Choose wisely.

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