Pitch The PM

PitchThePM

Pitch The PM is the professional investor’s podcast where host Doug Garber dives deep into high-conviction stock ideas using his Variant View Investment Checklist. It’s a real-time look at the research process, blending lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Lynch with modern AI tools. Join Doug, ex-Citadel top analyst and Millennium Sr PM, as he works through his Buffett-inspired 20-slot punch card. Learn, laugh, and sharpen your edge.

  1. 2d ago

    EP.41: Student Stock Competition Winners: Is the Magic Show Over? $HAS Short Pitch

    "When I see short interest go up into the right... I want to dig deeper." "We came in as a long at first... then we followed the evidence to get to the short side." "Magic has been the crown jewel of the company—but we think expectations have gotten too high." [Using Carbon Arc data] “average weekly users on the app through quarter to date to q2 it's down 11 percent” "You have to be intellectually honest. You can't just ignore evidence because it doesn't support your thesis." Glenn and Vito won both the Fordham and Notre Dame Stock Pitch Competitions with a contrarian short thesis on Hasbro ($HAS). What began as a long idea quickly turned into a short after they dug into Magic: The Gathering, channel checks, local game store surveys, player sentiment, and Wizards of the Coast's product strategy. In this episode, they walk through the full research process behind their pitch, discuss why they believe Magic's recent growth is unsustainable, and explain how primary research, financial modeling, channel checks, and alternative data on Carbon Arc helped shape their view.  Stocks: $HAS *Not Investment Advice  Disclosure: I have a short position. That may change at anytime.  ______________________________________________________________________    [01:00:00] Introduction to Glenn Lee and Vito, winners of the Fordham and Notre Dame Stock Pitch Competitions, and their Hasbro short thesis. [01:03:03] How the investment idea evolved from a long thesis into a short after deeper financial analysis. [01:05:54] The two pillars of the Hasbro short thesis: slowing Magic: The Gathering demand and weakness in consumer products. [01:09:18] Doug explains how to think about short interest, positioning, and identifying crowded trades. [01:11:39] Breaking down Hasbro's business segments and why Wizards of the Coast drives nearly all of the company's profitability. [01:15:41] Why Magic: The Gathering has maintained its competitive advantage for more than 30 years. [01:21:43] The Universes Beyond strategy and why the team believes it changes Magic's long-term growth profile. [01:23:04] Hasbro's recent growth, management expectations, and why the students believe Wall Street is too optimistic. [01:30:15] Doug's framework for continuously testing an investment thesis and remaining intellectually honest as new evidence emerges. [01:34:11] The research process behind forecasting Magic: The Gathering demand using channel checks and industry expertise. [01:36:35] How product releases and aggressive pricing have accelerated Magic's recent growth. [01:38:21] Survey results, player backlash, and the debate around the Universes Beyond product strategy. [01:43:19] Channel checks with local game stores and what retailer ordering patterns reveal about future demand. [01:52:26] Using secondary market pricing to measure player demand and forecast future Magic sales. [01:56:14] The key bull case for Hasbro, why attracting new players may not be enough, and the team's concluding thoughts on the investment thesis. ______________________________________________________________________ 💡 This episode is powered by: Carbon Arc: 30 Days Free with Code PITCHTHEPM30 AlphaSense: Request a Demo Pitch The PM Links: 📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508

  2. Jul 15

    EP.40: The Next Phase of the Oil Cycle: Why Refiners Win

    “These [oil] cycles, and we can get into it, they move up in three waves. They go doubt, pullback, optimism, a pullback, and then parabolic euphoria.” “The well count is starting to bottom out, and even as of the latest Texas Railroad Commission data that was just updating for this call, it looks like that's bottoming out too.” “So I think the best ones that is now front and center is obviously the refiners, and I still think that there's a lot left in the tank.” "If you go back and look at the mega tech capex... there is not one single metric around meeting a capital budget." Robert Connors, the author of Crude Chronicles and advisor to funds that manage over $1 trillion such as T. Rowe Price walks us through his bullish oil cycle call in great detail with all the supporting charts.  The logic is simple: well productivity is declining and the marginal cost of production is increasing. Therefore, oil prices are on the rise.  Drawing on more than a century of industry data gathered by hand at the Library of Congress, Robert explains how oil cycles are driven not just by supply and demand, but by long-term productivity trends, capital allocation, and marginal production costs. Stocks mentioned: PSX, MPC, VLO, CVX, XOM, BP, TTW, RIG, NE, DO, VAL ______________________________________________________________________    [00:00:00] Highlights  [00:00:26] Introduction to Robert Connors and his long-cycle approach to energy research.  [00:02:10] How the Iran conflict fits into Robert's three-wave commodity cycle framework.  [00:04:28] Why well productivity—not traditional supply and demand forecasts—drives long-term oil cycles.  [00:09:13] Evidence that U.S. shale productivity growth is slowing and what that means for future oil prices.  [00:11:38] Comparing productivity trends across Bakken, Permian E&Ps, and integrated oil companies.  [00:14:21] Where future global oil supply growth could come from beyond the Permian.  [00:18:15] Understanding marginal production costs and why they establish the long-term floor for oil prices.  [00:20:44] Robert's framework for estimating a sustainable oil price range despite geopolitical volatility.  [00:24:35] Why refining margins are driven by secondary processing capacity rather than simple utilization rates.  [00:29:50] Global refining capacity outlook and why Robert remains bullish on refiners.  [00:32:54] Similarities between today's AI infrastructure spending and previous shale investment cycles.  [00:36:41] Productivity cycles, technology investment, and the relationship between energy and growth stocks.  [00:39:54] Robert's preferred investment opportunities, including refiners, integrated majors, and offshore drillers.  [00:44:47] Why offshore drilling may be entering a favorable cycle with limited new rig supply.  [00:51:24] How executive incentive structures influence capital allocation and shareholder returns in the offshore sector.  [00:52:53] Where listeners can follow Robert Connors and Crude Chronicles.  ______________________________________________________________________ 💡 This episode is powered by: AlphaSense: Request a Demo Pitch The PM Links: 📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508  Crude Chronicles Links: Robert Connors on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-connors-cfa-cpa-oilinvestor/  The Crude Chronicles: https://thecrudechronicles.substack.com/

  3. Jul 9

    EP.39: Bull or Bear debate on META’s AI Capex? With Avory’s CIO Sean Emory

    Sean Emory, CIO and Founder of Avory & Co., is one of my go-to investors when I want to pressure-test an investment thesis. While I tend to focus on earnings revisions and the Variant View checklist , Sean goes deep on products, competitive positioning, and invests where the world is heading. In this episode, we debate one of the biggest questions in tech investing today: Is Meta overspending on AI, or is Zuckerberg making the right long-term bet?  We break down if Meta's AI strategy is working and what is driving the stock? "Don't bet against Zuckerberg."  "They have the biggest distribution platform in the world."  "If you don't own your infrastructure, you run a lot of risk."  "Distribution is arguably the most important strategic place to be here."  "The burden on your brain—the cognitive load—amplifies."  Stocks: $META, $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $MSFT  Thank you to our episode sponsors Oxford Data Plan and Alpha Sense. *Not Investment Advice  ______________________________________________________________________ [00:00:00] Introduction to Sean Emory, Avory & Co., and the firm's investment approach. [00:01:24] Building Avory around disciplined research and long-term investing. [00:03:28] Why Meta has remained a core holding over the past decade. [00:04:34] Mark Zuckerberg's leadership and Meta's long-term execution. [00:09:00] Examining Meta's capital expenditure strategy and valuation. [00:11:15] Why Meta's distribution advantage supports its AI investments. [00:15:04] Sean's outlook for hyperscaler capital spending and infrastructure investment. [00:16:42] Why owning AI infrastructure matters for large technology platforms. [00:21:57] Discussion around potential equity financing and investor concerns. [00:23:40] Balancing near-term free cash flow with long-term investment returns. [00:26:48] What catalysts could change investor sentiment toward Meta. [00:32:39] Meta's AI model development, product strategy, and competitive positioning. [00:35:01] The AI tools Sean uses throughout his investment process. [00:37:28] Using AI workflows, automation, and productivity systems within an investment firm. [00:43:58] Portfolio sizing and valuation discipline for Meta. [00:48:24] Whether investors should support Meta's aggressive AI investment strategy. [00:52:10] Long-term expectations for Meta's free cash flow as capital spending stabilizes. [00:57:15] Additional upside from Meta's AI partnerships and infrastructure investments. 💡 This episode is powered by: Oxford Data Plan: Request a Demo AlphaSense: Request a Demo Pitch The PM Links: 📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠ Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508  Avory & Co Links: Sean Emory on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/seanemoryavory Avory & Co https://www.avory.xyz/

  4. Jun 30

    EP038: AI's Next Surprise Inflection–Construction Rentals? With Jarrett Harris from Iron Advisor Insights

    Jarrett Harris, from Iron Advisor Insights was my go to person for industrial channel checks when I was at Citadel and Millennium. He’s from Peoria, IL, the original HQ of Caterpillar ($CAT) and spends his days talking to heavy equipment dealers. He is now part of Iron Connect, a dealer wholesale network with proprietary data that gives me an edge on when the heavy equipment cycles are inflecting. After catching-up with Jarrett in this episode, it is likely we are seeing early signs of a price inflection for rental equipment potentially impacting: $URI, $EQPT, $SUNB, $HRI "The data center build out is reshaping everything." “Supply versus demand is normalized and is now edging toward scarcity rather than abundance." "We've started to get more indications that rental rates are going higher." "We're starting to hear more people in the used equipment market that are hoarding equipment." “north of 80% of the equipment on their site was selling within two weeks. If I go back to September of ‘25, it was about 30%.” Stocks:$URI, $CAT, $EQPT, $SUNB, $HRI *Not Investment Advice ______________________________________________________________________ [00:00:00] Introduction and highlights. [00:00:25] Jarrett Harris introduces Iron Advisor Insights and its field research approach. [00:01:44] Building a research business focused exclusively on heavy equipment and industrial machinery. [00:03:48] How dealer, contractor, supplier, and equipment data are combined to identify industry trends. [00:04:55] The machinery manufacturers and rental companies covered by Iron Advisor Insights. [00:05:39] Why Caterpillar and equipment rentals are at the center of investor conversations. [00:07:04] How AI data centers are changing construction demand and equipment utilization. [00:09:39] Equipment supply, lead times, pricing, and the shift from abundance toward scarcity. [00:12:09] Caterpillar's growing role in powering AI data centers. [00:15:09] Why Caterpillar's dealer network creates a competitive advantage. [00:17:19] Used equipment markets, dealer inventory, and signs of tightening supply. [00:20:14] Rental rate trends and early indications of improving pricing power. [00:21:55] How dynamic pricing is changing the equipment rental industry. [00:24:09] EquipmentShare's impact on competition and rental pricing strategies. [00:26:44] Why rental companies may be approaching an important pricing inflection point. [00:28:38] How large data center projects are influencing equipment demand and contractor behavior. [00:30:12] Geographic expansion of data center construction across North America. [00:31:51] Comparing pricing between new and used construction equipment. [00:33:07] Dealer inventory strategies and growing conviction around future equipment demand. [00:35:33] Investor sentiment toward AI-driven construction versus broader economic activity. [00:36:17] Infrastructure spending and improving conditions in construction markets. [00:39:50] The long-term growth outlook for equipment rentals and OEM-backed rental fleets. ______________________________________________________________________ Pitch The PM Episode Links: Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508  📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠ Iron Advisor Insights Links:Jarret Harris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jarrettharris/Iron Advisors Insights: https://ironconnect.com/

  5. Jun 26

    EP037: SNOW: 1st Inning on AI Cloud Data Winner! With Sonu Chawla, PM of $TSCM

    Part 2 of the interview with Sonu Chawla, Co-Portfolio Manager at TimesSquare Capital Management, about one of her team's highest-conviction investment ideas in enterprise AI. Sonu explains why Snowflake sits at the center of the AI data ecosystem, how her team developed conviction to increase its position during a sharp software selloff, and why they believe enterprise AI adoption remains in its earliest stages. The conversation examines primary research, expert networks, valuation discipline, and the role of AI tools in investment research, highlighting how experienced analysts combine domain expertise with fundamental research to identify long-term growth opportunities before they become widely recognized. ETF: TSCMTickers: SNOW *Not Investment Advice. ______________________________________________________________________ [00:00:00] Introduction and highlights to part 2 of this interview with Sonu Chawla. [00:02:20] Snowflake's business model and why it is foundational to enterprise AI infrastructure. [00:05:50] Why enterprise AI adoption is still in its earliest innings. [00:08:05] How Snowflake differentiates itself from hyperscale cloud providers and competing data platforms. [00:15:06] The investment thesis behind increasing the firm's Snowflake position during the software selloff. [00:17:49] Why Cortex Code (CoCo) created a variant perception and wasn't reflected in company guidance. [00:18:16] Customer adoption data, channel checks, and primary research that strengthened conviction. [00:22:17] Using LinkedIn, expert calls, and management commentary as part of the research process. [00:22:17] Balancing valuation discipline with high-growth investment opportunities. [00:26:53] Why discounted cash flow analysis and free cash flow remain central to investment decisions. [00:29:48] Comparing Snowflake's growth profile with Palantir and the broader enterprise AI landscape. [00:31:20] How Times Square uses AI tools to accelerate investment research and improve productivity. [00:33:20] Building an internal AI-enabled research ecosystem and connecting proprietary data sources. ______________________________________________________________________ Pitch The PM Episode Links: Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508  📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠ TimesSquare Links:Sonu Chawla on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-chawla-cfa-0093612/TimesSquare: https://tscmllc.com/ 💡 This episode is powered by AlphaSense. Use the link here for Complimentary access — https://www.alpha-sense.com/PTPM/

  6. Jun 24

    EP036: TimesSquare ($TSCM): The Woman in the Arena with Co-PM Sonu Chawla

    Against all odds, Sonu has shined at every step of her career. From getting into the Indian Institute of Technology to becoming a Co-PM at TimesSquare Capital Management. We get into what it's like to stand in the Wall Street arena everyday after proving the “nah-sayers” wrong.  And why she invests in mid-cap equities at TimesSquare Capital Management and the benefits of being early to investing in a transformational, high-growth company. “It was a master class in trying to adapt to a world which did not look like you,” “Working hard like someone who had been repeatedly doubted and told that there were others in line ahead.” “I'm a student.  What drives me is intellectual curiosity. I want to learn and get better every day.” “I want to show up every day in the arena.” ETF: TSCMTickers: ARGX, SNOW *Not Investment Advice. ______________________________________________________________________   [00:00:00] Sonu Chawla's early interest in investing and journey through the Indian Institute of Technology. [00:01:50] How consulting at Deloitte led to a career in professional investing. [00:03:43] Growing up in a small town in India, overcoming barriers, and the importance of persistence and mentorship. [00:08:46] Resilience, learning from mistakes, and what continues to motivate Sonu as an investor. [00:10:32] Why TimesSquare Capital focuses on mid-cap growth investing and the long-term case for the asset class. [00:14:27] TimesSquare's analyst-driven investment process and how the team develops investment ideas. [00:19:26] Lessons from hedge fund investing and the importance of valuation discipline. [00:21:09] Sonu's quality growth investment philosophy and investing before profitability inflection points. [00:21:58] The Argenx case study and identifying businesses early in their scaling journey. [00:25:08] How deep sector expertise helps analysts build conviction through primary research. [00:26:24] Why specialized industry knowledge is the firm's competitive advantage. [00:28:30] Launching the TimesSquare Quality Mid-Cap Growth ETF and why active ETFs appeal to investors. ______________________________________________________________________ Pitch The PM Episode Links: Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508  📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: ⁠https://pitchthepm.substack.com/⁠ TimesSquare Links: Sonu Chawla on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-chawla-cfa-0093612/ TimesSquare: https://tscmllc.com/

  7. Jun 10

    EP035: "From Citadel & Millennium to Building AI for the Buy-Side" with Eric Moster

    In the new Pitch The PM series, The Wall Street Entrepreneur premier, Doug Garber speaks with former Citadel colleague, Eric Moster, CEO of Portrait Analytics and former portfolio manager at Millennium and Analyst at Surveyor Capital. Eric shares his transition from hedge fund investing into building AI-powered research tools purpose-built for institutional investors. The discussion explores how Portrait Research helps analysts monitor information flow, generate investment ideas, and accelerate deep fundamental research workflows. Eric explains the evolution of the platform from productivity software into a customized intelligence engine capable of identifying new opportunities based on an investor’s specific framework. They also examine the challenges of building AI products for hedge funds, balancing signal versus noise, scaling a startup, and why narrowing product focus became critical to Portrait’s growth strategy.   _____________________________________________________________ [00:00:00] Introduction to Eric Moster and his move from investing to entrepreneurship.[00:00:36] Eric’s background at Citadel, Millennium, and Surveyor Capital.[00:01:14] How ChatGPT changed Eric’s view of AI and investing.[00:02:24] Joining Portrait Research alongside founder David Plon.[00:03:55] Eric’s path from first business hire to CEO.[00:05:28] Portrait’s evolution and product roadmap.[00:05:36] Overview of Portrait’s AI research and monitoring tools.[00:06:40] Tracking material information across industries.[00:08:04] Doug’s experience using Portrait.[00:08:48] Data quality challenges and filtering noise.[00:10:55] Using Reddit and alternative sources for investment insights.[00:11:50] Monitoring sentiment shifts and public reactions.[00:12:51] Determining what information is truly material.[00:14:29] Management guidance and investor interpretation.[00:16:55] Embedding hedge fund expertise into AI systems.[00:18:18] Why idea generation is the highest-value workflow.[00:20:42] Introduction to Portrait Intelligence.[00:22:03] Applying custom investment frameworks at scale.[00:24:03] Ranking opportunities based on framework fit.[00:25:10] Moving from productivity gains to revenue generation.[00:26:44] Learning from historical investment decisions.[00:29:41] Identifying recurring behavioral patterns.[00:30:34] Conducting objective investment postmortems.[00:31:35] Generating detailed turnaround investment reports.[00:33:58] Expanding the investment funnel with AI.[00:34:37] Why every framework is customized.[00:35:44] Ideal customer profiles and use cases.[00:36:52] Customer growth and adoption metrics.[00:37:55] Team growth, runway, and go-to-market strategy.[00:39:22] Pricing and product positioning.[00:39:59] Lessons on startup focus and prioritization.[00:41:20] Products Portrait intentionally shut down.[00:43:43] Final thoughts on entrepreneurship and investing.   Links:  Doug Garber on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508   Eric Moster on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eric-moster-3006779  📩 Subscribe to our substack: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/

  8. Jun 2

    EP 034: T. Rowe’s TURF, is Bullish the Canadian Oil Sands & The Oil Cycle

    Priyal Maniar, Co-PM of TURF and Global Energy Analyst, dives deep into why T. Rowe - who manages $1.8 Trillion - is structurally bullish the oil cycle.The marginal cost of production is increasing and US shale geology has peaked meaning the next well is more expensive and less productive. The recent U.S. - Iran war, wipes out the over supply from the start of the year and pulls forward the bullish productivity decline thesis. It also puts energy security in focus and improves demand for energy sources like coal. TURF expresses the bullish oil bet through an overweight position in Oil Sands producers such as Suncor (SU), Canadian Natural Resources and Cenovus Energy. Pyrial also highlights her top U.S. oil picks that have idiosyncratic catalysts in their FCF inflections coming up. Her top idea has free cash flow doubling over the next four years at flat prices with a great management team and a great balance sheet and ample low cost inventory. She also highlights three other names with ample inventory and FCF inflections. She notes that these stocks do well when large projects wind down free cash flow inflects. 🔍 What You’ll Learn: Why U.S. shale geology has peaked, and why that’s bullish, not bearishHow to think about the marginal barrel at $70+ and risingWhy Canadian Oil Sands offer the best duration in global energyHow mining-style economics differ from shale (OPEX vs. CAPEX curve)The real math on Venezuela’s revival: $50-100B and 10 yearsWhy energy security is now a structural demand driverHow the Strait of Hormuz disruption changes Middle East midstream Global LNG after the Qatar train outages and project delaysThe coal-to-gas switching dynamic setting global gas pricesWhy AI power demand extends the runway for U.S. natural gasHow electrification, nuclear, and SMRs fit into the energy stackPriyal’s top conviction names: Canadian E&Ps, and….How to use AI in the research process without getting front-runTimestamps[00:00] – Intro: U.S. Shale Peak Debate 01:00 – Why It Doesn't Matter If Shale Peaks: Cost Curve Matters 02:15 – Long Energy Cycles & S&P Energy vs. S&P 500 [03:30] – The Marginal Barrel Today: Guyana, Brazil, Middle East, Shale [05:00] – Shale Elasticity & Where Marginal Cost Goes Next[06:00] – Iran War Impact on the Oil Setup [07:15] – Energy Security as a Structural Demand Driver [08:30] – How to Express the Thesis in TURF[09:30] – Low-Cost U.S. E&Ps with Inventory & Balance Sheet [10:30]– The Canadian Oil Sands Bull Case [11:45] – Oil Sands Economics: Mining vs. Shale Decline Curves [13:00] – Why No New Greenfield Mines Get Sanctioned[14:15]– Venezuela: Heavy Oil Revival Math [15:30] – Chevron's Unique Position & Production Growth [16:45]– Political Risk: Venezuela vs. U.S. Election Cycles[18:00] – Middle East Egress & Pipeline Redundancies [19:15]– Aramco, ADNOC & National Project Dynamics [20:30] – East-West Pipeline Capacity & U.S. Expertise[21:45 ]– Global LNG: Qatar Outages & Project Delays [23:00] – Coal as the New Price-Setting Fuel [26:45] – Long-Term Bullish on Henry Hub [27:45] – Offshore Comeback: Conoco Alaska, Clearwater, Namibia, Guyana [30:30] – AI Power Demand & U.S. Gas Longevity [31:45] – Utilities, Nuclear & SMRs as Part of the Stack[33:00] – Advice for Aspiring Investors: Dig for the Next Insight [34:15] – How Priyal Uses AI in Her Research Process📩 Subscribe to the Pitch the PM newsletter to get the deeper investment framework, key metrics investors should track, and Doug's structured checklist for evaluating the idea.https://pitchthepm.substack.com/💡 Presented by AlphaSenseFree trial access: https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/🎧 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4UHbkYE2OJwfhY2MZqGG5YListen on Apple Podcasts:https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pitch-the-pm/id1797669466This episode is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See full disclosures at: https://www.pitchthepm.com/disclaimer

Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
8 Ratings

About

Pitch The PM is the professional investor’s podcast where host Doug Garber dives deep into high-conviction stock ideas using his Variant View Investment Checklist. It’s a real-time look at the research process, blending lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Lynch with modern AI tools. Join Doug, ex-Citadel top analyst and Millennium Sr PM, as he works through his Buffett-inspired 20-slot punch card. Learn, laugh, and sharpen your edge.

You Might Also Like