Pitch The PM

PitchThePM

Pitch The PM is the professional investor’s podcast where host Doug Garber dives deep into high-conviction stock ideas using his Variant View Investment Checklist. It’s a real-time look at the research process, blending lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Lynch with modern AI tools. Join Doug, ex-Citadel top analyst and Millennium Sr PM, as he works through his Buffett-inspired 20-slot punch card. Learn, laugh, and sharpen your edge.

  1. 1d ago

    EP. 58: 3rd Inning of the AI Revolution with Dan Ives, Tech Analyst, Yorkville Ives

    Get early episode drops, episode feedback from HF's & LO's, & the PTPM Job Board on Substack: https://pitchthepm.substack.com/“I think Anthropic is at the centerpiece of it. I get valuation sensitivity, but the appetite will be extremely strong.” “The use cases will be software driven. The success ofSalesforce or ServiceNow, Palantir, Snowflake, Mongo…. Cybersecurity, where I think budgets could ultimately double over the next few years.” Dan Ives covered tech stocks for almost 20 years at FBR, him and I shared the research-floor He made the "AI Revolution" call in January 2023 on the back of Microsoft's $10 billion OpenAI investment because he had the context and conviction from doing the leg work, racking up 3.5 million air miles doing channel checks over his career. In July 2026 he co-founded Yorkville Ives, a tech, energy and infrastructure investment bank spanning research, sales and advisory, alongside the Yorkville hedge fund; he chairs the Ives Ultra Fund, the first public company investing in private AI companies, and his IVES ETF is built on his AI 30 list. 💡 This episode is presented by: ⁠AlphaSense⁠–Decision Grade AI ⁠Oxford Data Plan⁠–The Home of Alternative Data Not Investment Advice (02:22) Built brick by brick: the industry contacts behind the NVIDIA, Palantir, Microsoft and Tesla calls (03:33) CoreWeave, CDS spreads and a week in Korea with the memory players (04:55) The SaaS apocalypse was a false narrative; cybersecurity was supposed to be eaten by Anthropic (06:10) The research footprint has gone global: Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Australia (06:56) The 2022 set-up and the clues before the AI Revolution call (07:47) Microsoft's $10 billion OpenAI bet, January 2023: "that's it" (09:16) Why the deal clicked while the reactions were negative; you needed a hyperscaler (10:09) 300 neoclouds, and why token prices need to go down (11:00) Less than 5% of US companies, Europe zero; US vs China; physical AI hasn't started (11:30) 800,000 data centers; $1 of capex is a $5–6 multiplier; year three of an eight-to-ten-year build-out (12:02) What inning? Third. Why one-to-two-year valuation math fails the transformational names (12:46) The AI 30: chips, memory, the hyperscalers (caution on Oracle), software and cybersecurity (13:45) Earnings validate, monetization and capex comfort, stocks go higher: the ebb and flow (14:05) The hyperscalers go free-cash-flow negative: earnings or free cash? (14:55) Meta's 3.5 billion users; Apple as the toll collector on the consumer AI highway (16:16) What's the best call now? Software use cases, and cybersecurity budgets that could double (16:58) This is not 1999: 25–30x revenues then vs 23x earnings now, funded by free cash, not venture money (17:58) The investors who missed generational opportunities because of the bubble and '08 (18:46) Five data centers in Nebraska and Iowa: the hearts and lungs of the AI revolution (19:15) Horse and buggy, typewriters, and the coming innovation boom (19:52) Agentic winners and losers: Caterpillar, Lockheed, Dell, healthcare (21:12) AI will create more jobs than it takes away; the industry's self-inflicted PR black eye (21:58) Anthropic's IPO at $1.5 trillion: the centerpiece, and the monetization engine (23:19) SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic going public is good for the public markets (23:53) Yorkville Ives: a tech, energy and infrastructure investment bank; white-glove service vs juniorization (25:19) The Ives Ultra Fund, the IVES ETF and a multi-year tech bull market (26:18) Closing: following Yorkville Ives, and the PTPM job board Research Sponsors: ⁠Fiscal.AI⁠–Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. 15% discount with code PITCH ⁠Carbon Arc⁠–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy. 30 Days free with code PTPM30 Pitch The PM Links: 📩Early episode drops episode feedback on ⁠Substack⁠ Daily industry chatter and market color on ⁠LinkedIn⁠ Dan Ives Links: X: ⁠@DivesTech⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠Dan Ives⁠ ⁠Yorkville Ives⁠

  2. Oct 29

    EP. 57: Agentic Winners & Losers: A Tsunami Is Coming with Onnig Terzian, former Balyasny TMT PM

    Get early episode drops, episode feedback from HF's & LO's, & the PTPM Job Board on Substack: https://pitchthepm.substack.com "I see a tsunami heading to that space. And it feels like the investors are just very complacent and sitting on the beach." "It really is going to be winner take all. You can justify spending almost anything to make sure you are the consumer agent on everyone's phone." "You're going to get rid of large swaths of the internet space that were just effectively intermediaries” After a decade plus on the buyside as a TMT PM, at firms like Balyasny, Onnig Terzian is launching his own fund where he aims to invest with duration. His goal is to focus on fundamental ideas with 6-18 month alpha curves over short-lived alpha ideas. He is a life-long stock nerd, initially inspired from a meeting with the Oracle himself, Warren Buffett, in Omaha and was trained in risk management at Balyasny’s Anthem PM training program. Carpe Diem. The Agentic Tsunami Winners & Losers: $META: "The value of Facebook advertising and the ROAS for the advertisers is about to skyrocket." $AAPL: "They don't need to give Apple twenty percent of your cut. They can just go right to the internet." $TWLO: "If you are looking for evidence of agentic in Q3 earnings, Twilio is the one to look at." $WDAY: “I would look to a name like Workday. It's extremely low churn, it serves a purpose, and it's less susceptible to this per-seat issue in terms of pricing and seats declining. I'm aware of what's in the press. There's a rumor that they're going to get bought out.” $ETSY: “Muse can't go to other sites outside of Etsy and buy that customized chessboard,” $PINS: “In a model like Pinterest, you're going to see a double whammy the users decline, and the revenue per user also declines at the same time, and it's going to cause big impacts.” 💡 This episode is presented by:Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative Data. *Not Investment Advice Highlights: (05:51) Georgetown's investment club, Omaha, and two hours of Q&A with Warren Buffett (08:22) Morgan Stanley, four years of private equity, Black and White Capital (12:52) From a few high-conviction names to 50 names and 8–12x turnover (16:43) Turning down $20–50M guarantees to launch his own fund (20:34) The short that was right and still too big: trade units, not pair trades (24:57) Where SaaS goes from here: per-seat is dead; Workday as the survivor (27:55) "A whole new world order": Meta's Muse and the agent layer (31:48) Amazon vs. Muse; Walmart and Shopify lean in (34:20) Winners: Meta, Google, Apple — and the App Store's $20–30B at risk (39:35) 100 apps → 80 → the nine you use; why Meta's ROAS skyrockets (41:19) Pinterest: North American users negative in 2027 and 2028 (49:25) Etsy: inventory that exists nowhere else; the agent fixes discoverability and frequency (53:40) Building the agentic winners/losers factor: rank every name 0–10 (56:40) Why he won't short a heavily shorted name (15% of float, ex-converts) (1:06:00) Adobe: revenue estimates ±2%, stock −60% — you can't ignore the multiple (1:09:03) Meta's capex: "winner take all" justifies almost anything Topics: Agentic AI, Meta Muse, Pinterest, Etsy, Shopify, Twilio, Apple App Store, Booking, Expedia, Airbnb, DoorDash, Workday, Adobe, Balyasny, Multi-Manager, Portfolio Construction, Idiosyncratic Risk, Short Interest, Fund Launch, People & Process Research Sponsors:AlphaSense–Decision Grade AI : https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/ Fiscal.AI–Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. 15% discount with code PITCH : https://fiscal.ai/?via=pitch Carbon Arc–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy. 30 days free with code PTPM30: https://www.carbonarc.co/onboarding?f... Pitch The PM Links: 📩Early episode drops episode feedback on Substack: https://pitchthepm.substack.com Daily industry chatter and market color on LinkedIn:   / doug-garber-42aa508   Onnig Terzian Links: LinkedIn :   / onnigterzian

  3. Oct 21

    EP. 56: “If you want to generate alpha, you can’t be sharing this information.” with Sagar Kadakia, CEO & Founder, Qualitate

    Free Personalized AI Moderator Trial “If you want to generate alpha, you can’t be sharing all this information.” “That interviewer needs to think and feel and act like you do. It needs to have all the context that you do.” “We’re just making primary research faster, cheaper, and embedded. If I had to summarize the whole thing, that’s what Qualitate is doing.” Sagar Kadakia has spent nearly 20 years in primary research. He joined Tom DelVecchio at ETR in 2011, ran buy-side survey work for six years, and later built research and data products at 7Park Data and CB Insights. In 2023, as ChatGPT and voice capture crossed human parity, he founded Qualitate: an AI interviewer that runs 45–65 minute expert conversations autonomously and is grounded in what he describes as the fastest-growing AI-moderated interview library in the world. Crew Capital wrote the first $1M check when few others wanted to fund a company building its own expert panel. This week, Qualitate announced a $25M Series A led by Insight Partners, with net revenue retention above 300% and run-rate revenue up 10x in nine months. Sagar walks through Qualitate’s two products: a proactive library built using Qualitate’s own capital and questions, and a private channel-check product where clients bring their own questions, interviewer, library, and internal inputs — without that proprietary information being mixed back into the broader system. We also get into why the architecture matters: grounding instead of retraining for every new model, persistent memory so call five knows calls one through four, and transcripts structured so investors can query them for time series instead of simply searching. “You can search through transcript files, but you can’t actually query that data. On Qualitate, you can actually query transcripts.” “We don’t train or fine-tune anything. Because if you do that and the next version comes out, all of that work you just did goes to zero. We ground it.” 💡 This episode is presented by:Fiscal.AI — Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. 15% discount with code PITCH: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/?via=pitch⁠ Highlights: (00:33) Twenty years in primary research: ETR, 7Park Data, CB Insights (01:40) ChatGPT, voice capture and “continuous expert intelligence” (03:20) $25M Insight Partners Series A, NRR above 300% (04:34) Qualitate’s proactive AI-moderated research library (09:06) Private channel checks: your questions, interviewer and library (12:57) Uploading transcripts and memos into the interviewer (15:15) Human bias vs. AI-moderated interviews (21:08) The $2,000 expert call problem (21:30) One-third to one-quarter of the price; 20–40 calls in days (23:18) Building an expert panel with agents (26:35) Do the first two calls yourself, then hand off 50 (29:07) Structured, queryable transcripts and longitudinal analysis (31:45) Hedge funds moving channel checks to Qualitate (47:12) Continuous intelligence: AI, humans, simulations and synthetics (51:12) Faster, cheaper, embedded primary research (52:23) Sagar’s biggest entrepreneurial mistakes Topics: Expert Networks, AI Interviewing, Primary Research, Channel Checks, Qualitate, GLG, Guidepoint, AlphaSense, Tegus, Snowflake, Insight Partners, Grounding vs. Fine-Tuning, Proprietary Data, Agents, Hedge Funds, Private Equity Diligence Research Sponsors: Oxford Data Plan - The Home of Alternative Data. The Home of Alternative Data Carbon Arc — The Infrastructure for the AI Economy. 30 days free with code PTPM30: ⁠ Pitch The PM: Substack: ⁠ https://pitchthepm.substack.com⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠https://linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508⁠ Sagar Kadakia: LinkedIn: ⁠https://linkedin.com/in/s-kadakia⁠ Qualitate: ⁠https://qualitate.io⁠ Not Investment Advice.

  4. Oct 16

    EP. 55: Token Price Indexes Are Falling on Model Shifts Not Price Cuts with Carmen Li, CEO of Silicon Data & Compute Exchange

    Carmen Li, CEO of Silicon Data and Compute Exchange, joins the show to explain how compute is becoming a brand-new asset class. A former energy options market maker at DRW who later ran global data integrations at Bloomberg, Carmen was pre-seeded by DRW founder Don Wilson to build the GPU industry benchmarks. Silicon Data is the referee — "the Bloomberg for compute" — while Compute Exchange is the liquidity layer where GPUs, tokens and servers change hands. We get into why token price indexes are falling, recent token & model consumption trends, why GPU residual values are above accounting depreciation schedules, and how neoclouds, their lenders, and compute users can hedge GPU exposure to reduce business volatility. •     "The A100 has been around for six years at this point, and we still see three-year contracts signed on A100s." Residual values are still hovering above five-year straight-line depreciation. •    “we'd definitely be looking at 30 trillion of [GPU] derivatives every year." Topics: Compute as an asset class, GPU indices, CME compute futures, GPU depreciation and useful life, neoclouds, token pricing, AI chip supply chain,  💡 This episode is presented by: Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative Data Not Investment Advice. Highlights: (0:00) Doug introduces Carmen Li, CEO of Silicon Data and Compute Exchange (0:20) From energy options market maker at DRW to Bloomberg Data, and why AI startups' swinging GPU costs made compute an industry-wide hedging problem (4:09) How DRW founder Don Wilson pre-seeded Silicon Data, and building products with no product or sales team (6:10) Two sides of the coin: Silicon Data as "the Bloomberg for compute" and Compute Exchange as "the Nasdaq for compute" (7:49) Licensing indices to CME for H100 and B200 compute futures, and four ETFs filed before the futures even trade (10:22) What makes an index the source of truth: tracking supply-demand, resisting manipulation, staying neutral (12:57) Normalizing 50 B200 server configurations, and what earns a premium or a discount to the benchmark (16:04) Sizing the market: from 1–3 trillion in spot compute to a potential 30 trillion in derivatives notional (18:13) Who hedges first: neoclouds, hyperscalers and the financiers holding GPUs on their balance sheets (21:06) Michael Burry's depreciation bear case vs. the physical market: A100s still signing three-year contracts after six years (22:49) Why older chips stay productive: cooling, floor weight, wait times and the second-hand market (26:20) 300+ neoclouds and why more data sources make an index harder to manipulate (28:48) B200s at ~$5 per GPU hour, the implied forward curve and the shift into contango (31:18) Why an index provider can't give forward guidance, or own the assets. (33:59) Token indices on the Bloomberg Terminal, and a leading indicator for AI revenue (37:03) Why token prices are falling: workflows moving to open-source and open-weight models (38:51) Token pricing has no transparency, and why customers will demand control (41:49) Where to invest in the AI stack, lessons from the internet era and why "AI is a gigantic baby" (45:03) Homegrown silicon, fab capacity and why a hundred chip designers can't create a bubble (48:56) Why compute futures enable price discovery, not a bubble (49:29) Running a data company and a marketplace at the same time (52:47) Carmen's lesson for entrepreneurs: pick something you love (54:08) The vision: the liquidity provider and the referee for every layer of the cake Research Sponsors: Fiscal.AI - Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. 15% discount with code PITCH Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative DataAlphaSense–Decision Grade AICarbon Arc–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy Pitch The PM Links:📩Early episode drops episode feedback on Substack Daily industry chatter and market color on LinkedIn  Carmen Li Links: Carmen LI on LinkedIn: Silicon Data: https://www.silicondata.comCompute Exchange: https://compute.exchange

  5. Oct 8

    EP. 54: Is The AI Boom Causing Machinery Scarcity?

    My long time confidant, Jarrett Harris, Director of Research at IronAdvisor Insights joins the show to share his latest insights. He is quintessentially mid-western and was my go to source for learning about the on the ground pulse of the industrial economy when I was at Citadel and Millennium. As part of IronConnect, a heavy equipment industry service provider, Jarrett has unparalleled access to equipment dealers, rental companies, and industry executives.  My key takeaways from our conversation:  The industrial economy’s growth is being driven by Data Center related activity from power gen, to heavy equipment, to trucking and even landscaping and coal.  “A second-tier AWP manufacturer's entire inventory being bought out by a national rental house” “I don't think we've ever had a time in my [Jarrett’s] 22 years where all three of those industries [for CAT] were firing at the same time.” “We're having conversations with executives in that component supply chain, I think all of them are looking for an uptick in 2027 volumes. And that was not necessarily the case three or six months ago. “We're hearing about a coal demand resurgence.” “There is a risk that there are projects [Data Center] that developers are proposing in multiple states because they don't know which is going to move forward.”  Stocks: CAT, DE, PCAR, CMI, OSK, TEX, SITE, POOL, BTU, SNDK *Not Investment Advice. 💡 This episode is presented by:Fiscal.AI–Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. 15% discount with code PITCH (0:00) Introduction/highlights  (0:40) Doug introduces Jarrett Harris who is the axe in equipment-industry channel checks. (1:59) How joining Iron Connect expanded Jarrett’s industry access and dealer network by 10x (4:08) The Industrial economy is being driven by the data center buildout. (5:23) Data center demand expands from construction equipment and power generation into new equipment categories. (6:11) Landscaping, coal, transportation, and flatbed trailers emerge as derivative beneficiaries of the Data Center boom. (9:38) Coal demand begins strengthening as power providers require higher base loads. (12:01) Jarrett says he has never seen all three major Caterpillar end markets firing this strongly at the same time. (12:34) Previously bearish industry contacts become more constructive on the 2027 outlook. (13:36) The risk that data center project backlogs include projects proposed across multiple locations. (15:58) Longer lead times, lighter used inventory, and highly utilized rental fleets keep equipment scarce. (17:34) Jarrett describes an unprecedented buyout of a second-tier aerial equipment manufacturer’s inventory. (21:03) Haul trucks and articulated trucks approach new-equipment pricing as lead times stretch toward a year. (23:59) Trucking combines pent-up replacement demand with stronger data center and energy-related freight activity. (25:53) Component suppliers become increasingly constructive on 2027 truck volumes. (32:59) Trucking demand looks unusually industrial and project-driven rather than consumer-driven. (33:47) Signs of improvement in agriculture collide with cautious dealers still recovering from used-equipment losses. (36:40) A major trailer dealer estimates data centers drive ______________________________________________________________________Research Sponsors:Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative DataAlphaSense–Decision Grade AICarbon Arc–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy ______________________________________________________________________ Pitch The PM Links:📩Early episode drops episode feedback on Substack Daily industry chatter and market color on LinkedIn  Jarrett Harris Links:Jarrett Harris LinkedInIron Connect Highlights:

  6. Oct 1

    EP. 53: Why is DKNG not Benefiting from the Prediction Markets Surge? Is it the VC Sydney Sweeney  Effect on Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)?

    Prediction markets are surging, but DraftKings is moving in the opposite direction. Is the issue market share? Rising customer acquisition costs? Or simply a reset from last year’s growth expectations? In this episode, Bernie McTernan, CFA, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Needham & Company, breaks down the rapidly changing prediction-market landscape. We discuss Kalshi’s first-mover advantage, DraftKings’ strategy to replicate its regulated sportsbook playbook in currently unregulated states, Novig’s aggressive customer-acquisition push, and whether prediction markets meaningfully expand the long-term TAM for companies like DKNG. With negative estimate revisions weighing on the stock, elevated short interest, and DraftKings trading at roughly 11x forward EV/EBITDA, the debate becomes increasingly interesting: how much of the bad news is already priced in—and could today’s investments create a much larger earnings opportunity over time? “The stock's probably fifty percent lower than it was and the TAM's doubled.” “Prediction markets aren't just sports. Soon you'll be able to bet the whisper number.” “This is gonna be Robinhood on steroids.” “The numbers are going down, short interest is going up. Why do you think that the investments and lower revisions this year are actually gonna have a benefit next year?” Stocks: $DKNG, $FLUT Topics: DraftKings, Kalshi, Prediction Markets, Sports Betting, FanDuel, iCasino, Novig, Polymarket, Customer Acquisition Cost, Market Share, Regulation, EBITDA, Sportsbooks Not Investment Advice [00:00:00] Introduction to Bernie McTernan, Managing Director and Senior Analyst at Needham & Company.[00:01:40] Kalshi's rumored $40 billion private valuation.[00:02:45] What DraftKings' first NFL week of prediction-market share actually looked like.[00:04:30] The retention data that killed the original bear case on sportsbooks.[00:05:00] Mid-teens to 30–40% share — the playbook DraftKings wants to run again.[00:08:00] Why the prediction-market regulatory battle could end up at the Supreme Court.[00:11:40] The data showing almost no customer overlap between Kalshi and DraftKings.[00:18:00] Hedge fund hit rates and betting the number instead of the stock.[00:20:15] Fast futures, crypto, and the iCasino land grab.[00:21:50] The potential path from $1 billion to $5–6 billion of EBITDA.[00:27:45] Why states legalize gambling — budget deficits, not morality.[00:31:25] A trough multiple on estimates burdened by TAM expansion investments.[00:43:45] Novig's $50 million ad and the Caesars cautionary tale. 💡 This episode is presented by: Carbon Arc — The Infrastructure for the AI Economy.Free trial with code PTPM30:https://www.carbonarc.co/onboarding?flow=professional&billing=monthly&source=lenses Research Sponsors: Fiscal.AI — Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure.15% discount with code PITCH:https://fiscal.ai/?via=pitch Oxford Data Plan — The Home of Alternative Data:https://oxford-dp.com/demo AlphaSense — Decision Grade AI:https://www.alpha-sense.com/Pitch/ Pitch The PM Links: 📩 Subscribe to our Substack for early episode drops, research updates, episode feedback, and the Pitch The PM Job Board:https://pitchthepm.substack.com/ Doug Garber on LinkedIn:https://linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 Bernie McTernan, CFA Links: LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/bernie-mcternan-cfa-84045a23/ Needham & Company:https://www.linkedin.com/company/needham-&-company/

  7. Sep 24

    EP.52 Why Point72 Wins–20 Years Next to Steve Cohen with Chandler Bocklage, Head of Business Development

    Chandler Bocklage spent nearly two decades working alongside Steve Cohen, managing a portfolio before leading Business Development at Point72. In this episode, we discuss what separates good investors from great ones, how Point72 develops portfolio managers, why intellectual curiosity matters more than almost anything else, and how AI is reshaping the future of fundamental investing. If you've ever wondered what it really takes to become a successful PM, this is one of the most candid conversations from inside the walls of legendary investment firm Point72. “Alpha decay has been compressing and compressing. There are more and more people chasing the same alphas.” “You have to have different duration, you have to have different catalyst paths, you have to have different thought processes because” “Honestly, I think that's what it really comes down to. The sacrifices…” "We don't think AI replaces analysts or PMs." Highlights: (01:31) The intellectual curiosity that defines Steve Cohen (04:24) The unspoken sacrifices behind being great at this job (04:56) The Kobe, Jordan, and Brady comparison to elite investing (07:48) The origins of LaunchPoint and building a real development path (10:24) Why AI won't replace analysts or portfolio managers (14:41) What actually makes an investment process repeatable (29:47) The talent war, mega-guarantees, and buy versus build (33:12) The biggest mistake of his career — and what it taught him (35:18) Why Steve Cohen stepped back from trading to build the firm Topics: Point72, Steve Cohen, Portfolio Management, AI, Fundamental Investing, Risk Management, Analyst Development ______________________________________________________________________ 💡 This episode is presented by Carbon Arc–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy. 30 Days free with code PTPM30 Research Sponsors:Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative Data. Ping Makay Redd for a trial. AlphaSense–Decision Grade AI. Free trial at https://www.alpha-sense.com/pitch/ Fiscal.AI–Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. Use code PITCH for 15% off______________________________________________________________________ Pitch The PM Links:📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: https://pitchthepm.substack.com Doug Garber on LinkedIn for daily market color: https://linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508  Point72 Links:Chandler Bocklage on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chandler-bocklage-476518a6/Point 72: https://point72.com/ ______________________________________________________________________

  8. Sep 18

    DoorDash’s ($DASH) Growth Upside–A High-Conviction Investment with TimeSquare’s Consumer PM Ed Salib

    In 2001, Ed Salib walked into TimesSquare Capital Management as the firm's first intern. Twenty-five years later, he's co-PM of the TimesSquare Quality Mid Cap Growth ETF ($TSCM). So what does a 25-year fundamental investor do when one of the market's most debated stocks goes on sale? Ed passed on DoorDash's 2021 IPO, kept it in his research “bullpen,” and bought the 20% sell-off on conservative early-2025 guidance. He got a second bite when the stock fell from the mid-200s to ~$140 this spring on fears it could be "vibe-coded away." In the episode, we dig into why scale and density are the moat Grubhub never built, how DashPass and grocery are lifting order values, why Ed forecasts mid-20s growth through decade-end vs. the Street's high teens, and why the end of an internal investment cycle could surprise investors to the upside on margins. "They gave initial guidance in early 2025 for EBITDA that disappointed and the stock sold off twenty percent. That was our entry point." “We think they can go low to mid twenties versus the Street more like high teens over the next several years till the end of the decade.” “I'm looking at the real-time Oxford data. It has August growing 31%...the Street’s at 21% for the quarter.” We cover:● TimesSquare's consumer filter: durable, needs-based demand, and why "fashion was a four-letter word"● The three-sided marketplace, two-thirds US restaurant share, and why Grubhub lost the suburbs● DashPass, grocery and DoubleDash: how grocery lifts order value and driver economics● Why Ed passed on the IPO, what changed in 2024, and how he sized the 2025 entry● The variant view: low-to-mid-20s growth vs. the Street's high teens● The bear case: cost to grow, Instacart, Uber, PE-backed competition, and Deliveroo/ERP● How Ed sets base, bull and bear price targets● How TimesSquare uses Claude, MCPs and AlphaSense in research Highlights:(0:48) Ed's 25 years at TimesSquare, from first intern to co-PM(3:16) What TimesSquare looks for in a consumer stock(8:08) Why DoorDash is compelling: scale, founder-led, and capital allocation(11:06) Why the business exists and where Grubhub went wrong(13:20) DashPass, 45M members, and grocery(16:09) Carbon Arc data: grocery order values rising from ~$51 to ~$63(18:11) Robotaxis and drones: bull-case upside(20:44) Passing on the 2021 IPO and what changed in 2024(23:50) The 2025 guidance sell-off: "That was our entry point"(25:36) The 2026 AI sell-off and "vibe-coded away" bear case(28:55) Low-to-mid-20s growth vs. the Street's high teens(30:52) Incremental margins, ERP, and EBITDA revisions(32:23) Deliveroo integration and the 2026 investment year(35:25) ODP shows August accelerating to +31% YoY(37:20) DoorDash beyond restaurants(40:01) Valuation at ~22x NTM EV/EBITDA and the bear case(45:29) Economics with merchants and drivers(49:27) Base, bull and bear price targets(52:05) "We're a Claude shop": AI in research(54:47) Security and ring-fencing research 💡 This episode is presented by Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative Data. Ping Makay Redd for a trial (professional investors only) — https://www.linkedin.com/in/makay-redd-122a4364/ Research Sponsors:AlphaSense–Decision Grade AI. Complimentary trial at https://www.alpha-sense.com/pitch/Carbon Arc–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy. 30 Days free with code PTPM30Fiscal.AI–Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. Use code PITCH for 15% discount Pitch The PM Links:📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: https://pitchthepm.substack.comDoug Garber on LinkedIn for daily market color: https://linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508 TimesSquare Links:TimesSquare Capital Management: https://www.tscmllc.com/TimesSquare Quality Mid Cap Growth ETF ($TSCM): https://tscmetfs.com/funds/tscm/ Stocks mentioned: $DASH Not Investment Advice.

Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
10 Ratings

About

Pitch The PM is the professional investor’s podcast where host Doug Garber dives deep into high-conviction stock ideas using his Variant View Investment Checklist. It’s a real-time look at the research process, blending lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Lynch with modern AI tools. Join Doug, ex-Citadel top analyst and Millennium Sr PM, as he works through his Buffett-inspired 20-slot punch card. Learn, laugh, and sharpen your edge.

You Might Also Like