Decision Desk HQ Podcast

Decision Desk HQ

Every day is Election Day. Our weekly show talks votes, polls, trends, campaigns, and more. A show by election nerds for fellow election nerds, novices, and everyone in between. decisiondeskhq.substack.com

  1. 15h ago

    Episode 41: Are Senate Polls Overrating Democrats’ Chances? With Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights

    Democrats have closed the gap in Decision Desk HQ’s Senate forecast. Their chances have particularly been boosted by strong polls in red-leaning states like Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa. But is there reason to doubt some of this positive polling news for Democrats?To dig into that question, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at the Republican firm Echelon Insights. Patrick recently published an analysis on his Substack, The Intersection, that found Senate polls in recent cycles have tended to overstate Democratic performance relative to the final outcome — especially in some of the red-leaning states that Democrats need to win. ---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Patrick Ruffini on X: https://x.com/PatrickRuffini► The Intersection on Substack: https://patrickruffini.com/---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN DDHQ’s OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq ---CHAPTERS1:35 Introducing Patrick and his findings7:00 Error in midterms vs. presidential cycles13:45 Competitive races with more polling aren’t immune16:20 The redder the state, the worst the error19:24 Potential demographic explanations for error27:20 Error by state: Texas, Ohio, and elsewhere31:12 What this could mean for the 2026 Senate map36:10 What to make of Alaska43:05 Maine and Susan Collins, the overperformer This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 41: Are Senate Polls Overrating Democrats’ Chances? With Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights
  2. Jul 23

    Episode 37: Modern Campaign Ads, with Nick Everhart of Content Creative Media & Medium Buying

    We talk a lot about money in politics — like how much a candidate or group has raised and spent. You’ll often see a reference to how much a candidate has raised or how much an outside group has spent supporting or opposing a candidate. And one big reason is that a large chunk of that money goes to creating campaign advertising and purchasing airtime, either on TV or on digital platforms, to run said advertising. To dig into the universe of campaign advertising, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Nick Everhart on the DDHQ podcast. Nick is the founder and president of Content Creative Media, an advertising firm, and Medium Buying, which manages the tracking, planning, and purchasing of campaign advertising. Nick has been working in the campaign public affairs advertising, creative, and buying space on the Republican side of the aisle for a quarter century, during which time he has worked with numerous candidates and groups. The conversation began with a discussion of what Nick’s work involves and how he got into it (2:40). He became involved in Ohio politics while attending Ohio State in Columbus, and found himself at the noted GOP firm The Strategy Group right out of school in the early 2000s. From there, he gathered expertise on creating spots and planning and executing medium buying. Nowadays, he works with many different candidates and groups, including the Club for Growth, Alabama Rep. Barry Moore, and South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden. They examined some recent ads that Nick helped create and run (14:42). The first was a spot from Oklahoma’s 2026 Republican primary for governor that attacked Charles McCall. The ad argued, contrary to claims made by McCall in an earlier spot, that the former state House speaker backed legislation that allowed a hospital to pay for gender reassignment of children. The ad employed a banana as a key prop, working off of the ad that McCall had run previously. Nick noted this ad sought to attack a candidate’s vulnerability on transgender and LGBTQ issues that have been highly salient in Republican primaries. (McCall finished fifth in the primary.) The McCall ad also employed AI as part of its production, which Nick noted has been very helpful for ad-making — when used appropriately and judiciously (19:49). It’s been useful for creating B-roll and other supplementary footage that the production team did not necessarily have, as well as sometimes do more involved things like in the McCall attack ad. AI and other digital tools also allow for quicker turnaround, making it easier to rapidly put together an ad and put it on air or on streaming. They next looked at an ad from South Carolina’s 2020 U.S. Senate general election between Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison (27:00). (Note that we recorded this podcast prior to Graham’s untimely death on July 11.) Using a conceit that involved an actress speaking to an Amazon Alexa about the race, the ad attacked Harrison by having the Alexa voice run through a number of issues. They discussed how Nick uses opposition research against a candidate. He deeply familiarizes himself with the “oppo book” put together by the campaign or group he is working with, and then runs a survey testing messages to use against that candidate. The last ad they examined was a positive biographical spot for then-state Sen. Brett Lindstrom in Nebraska’s 2022 Republican primary for governor (32:55). The humorous ad showcased Lindstrom and his daughter talking about how the candidate always likes to cut things, linking this to Lindstrom’s support for tax cuts. The ad sought to make Lindstrom relatable by connecting voters with his daily life and his family. Lindstrom narrowly lost that primary, and Nick noted that sometimes they do great work that just doesn’t lead to a winning result due to factors like the political environment or President Trump’s endorsement process. They then talked about how ad buying works and how things have changed over the years (40:47). Nick and Geoffrey discussed media markets and what’s behind the decisions campaigns make regarding how and when to buy ad time. Demographic considerations about who is watching and when help drive these choices. Streaming is increasingly a focus, though linear television continues to be relevant because of live sporting events, which still attract large audiences. They closed out by talking about some of the ramifications of the Supreme Court’s recent decision in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission, which found that limits on coordinated spending between candidates and party committees were unconstitutional (53:20). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 37: Modern Campaign Ads, with Nick Everhart of Content Creative Media & Medium Buying
  3. Jul 9

    Episode 36: What's Next in Maine After Platner Drops Out, with Michael Shepherd (Bangor Daily News)

    On Wednesday evening, Graham Platner announced that he was suspending his campaign for U.S. Senate in Maine ahead of a July 13 deadline to withdraw as the Democratic nominee against Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Platner’s move followed allegations that he sexually assaulted a woman he once dated, a revelation that became a final dagger for his already-damaged candidacy. To react to this major development, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Michael Shepherd, the politics editor at the Bangor Daily News. They opened by discussing Platner’s combative 11-minute withdrawal announcement, in which he repeatedly blamed the Democratic Party’s political establishment and corporate media for pushing him out of the race (1:50). Michael noted that the bitter video in some ways reflects internal discord among Maine Democrats. Some in the party are mad at Platner for his divisive recording, while some of Platner’s supporters are upset at how the party handled his impending exit. Geoffrey and Michael then turned to the process to replace Platner (07:09). The Maine Democratic Party plans on holding a state convention with around 600 delegates, about one-sixth of them coming from the state party committee and the other five-sixths chosen by county party committees. Assuming Platner does officially withdraw by July 13, this body will have to choose a nominee by July 27 (14:15). The leading contenders seem to be the three prominent losers in Maine’s highly competitive Democratic primary for governor: former state CDC head Nirav Shah, ex-state Sen. Troy Jackson, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows. But the field may include (among others) two failed congressional candidates, a brewer with well-known political aspirations, and a state legislator who has been a major Platner backer. Looking forward, Michael observed that it’s unclear whether Democrats can fully unite ahead of the election in the wake of the Platner debacle (20:16). It’s true that Republican Sen. Susan is vulnerable and Platner was a dead-on-arrival candidate after the sexual assault allegation. But that doesn’t mean the replacement nominee is going to have an easy time defeating Collins (24:51). This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decisiondeskhq.substack.com

    Episode 36: What's Next in Maine After Platner Drops Out, with Michael Shepherd (Bangor Daily News)

Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
6 Ratings

About

Every day is Election Day. Our weekly show talks votes, polls, trends, campaigns, and more. A show by election nerds for fellow election nerds, novices, and everyone in between. decisiondeskhq.substack.com