Paul Krugman Podcast

Paul Krugman

Notes on economics and more paulkrugman.substack.com

  1. 6h ago

    An Explosion of Misery

    For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube. Transcript Contrary to what Trump administration officials say, we are not experiencing explosive economic growth. We are, however, experiencing an explosion in misery — and Donald Trump deserves full credit. Hi, Paul Krugman here, slightly different location. I want to talk about food stamps and health insurance, two areas where things have gotten dramatically worse just in the past year and are continuing to get worse. There's going to be a lot more hungry people in America, especially hungry children, by the end of this year, and a lot more people without health insurance or with inadequate health insurance. And it all can be tied directly to legislative action or inaction on the part the Trump administration and its allies. Here's what has happened. So we have what everybody still calls food stamps, though it's officially Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. But we have a situation now where the One Big Beautiful Bill didn't exactly cut the rate of benefits, but what it did was to impose work requirements. You might say, well,shouldn't people who can work work? Yeah, but that's not really what's happening. What's happening is that people who can work and do work —because among those who can work who are receiving food stamps, the vast majority do in fact work — must show proof of work. And that is, for many such people, a basically impossible burden. I mean, think of who is likely to be on food stamps. They may well be irregularly employed. They certainly may not have a job where they can call up the HR department and get the necessary forms. They are also presented with a complicated paperwork requirement. We're talking about people who are, to some extent, lacking in formal education. But above all — I've never been poor, thank God — but as everyone who's studied or been poor can tell you, the biggest issue of poverty in some sense is the cognitive burden, the constant struggle to just make ends meet, which is a huge burden on everything else. So you're imposing a bureaucratic hurdle, really a bureaucratic barricade in front of exactly the people least able to get across it. So of course, we're seeing a lot of people losing nutritional assistance with millions of those people children. Health insurance is a rather different story. The Affordable Care Act made a huge positive difference to many people's lives — in this case some people I do know quite well, small business people and so on. But the way it was set up, there are subsidies to help you purchase insurance through the exchanges. The subsidies are means tested. I could not get a subsidy for health insurance, nor should I. So they fade out with income. But as originally set up, they faded out too quickly with rising income, and there was a cliff at 400% of the poverty line, no more subsidies, which was clearly bad policy. And they knew that at the time. It was just that trying to scrape together enough votes to get that thing enacted was hard. So during the Biden years, the subsidy program was improved. It became somewhat more generous, but more important, it no longer had a cliff. It just gradually faded out. Unfortunately, that was not a permanent change. It wasn't enacted into legislation for forever. There was a cutoff date. Why? Well, two words, Joe Manchin. But in any case, obviously, Trump and Republicans in Congress refuse to even contemplate extending those enhanced benefits. And so a lot of people are now faced with vastly higher costs if they want to retain their health insurance. Interestingly, these are not the poorest. The poorest are going to be on Medicaid and even people a little bit above that are still going to have the full subsidy. But it's people in the middle class whose income is a little above 400% of the poverty line and suddenly have no subsidy available. That is a hardship for, again, millions of people. So far we know that enrollment on the exchanges that were set up to buy health insurance has dropped by about three million so far. Probably a lot more to come. And probably that understates the loss because people trying to save money because things are more expensive are in many cases stepping down to less comprehensive plans. So there's an increase in the number of underinsured too. Which means that a large number of Americans who had adequate health insurance no longer do. How should we think about all of this? The Trump administration has put out a report on the decline in Affordable Care Act enrollment, which is really a blood-boiling document because it portrays the big rise in enrollment that took place during the Biden years as a problem because it was an increase in fraud. Now, is there fraud? Yes, there's fraud in the Affordable Care Act. Is there fraud in the food stamp program? Yes — there's fraud in every program, public and private sector as well. There's fraud in the endless pasta deal at Olive Garden. There's fraud in frequent flyer schemes. There is no reason to believe that there is significant fraud in the sense that it's a significant, important part of any of these programs. And one thing that you always want to bear in mind when we're talking about these means-tested programs is how cheap they are. The average food stamp recipient receives $187 a month in nutritional assistance — $187 a month, a little over $2,000 a year. Maybe one way to put that in context is to say that Donald Trump's East Wing Ballroom Project, the one that is so far still just a hole in the ground and hopefully will never be finished, is costing $600 million. So that project alone, that scam, because we know that there's a lot of corruption involved, that is the equivalent of food stamps for 300,000 people for a year. So the things that we're talking about here are, it's not really about the money. It is one of those “the cruelty is the point” stories. And we could go on about that, but clearly the fact that a lot of people are going to suffer is not an unintended byproduct of these policies. It is kind of, in some ways, the goal. It's also enormously destructive, not just for people's lives now, but for the future. One of the best established facts about the benefits of government spending is that nutritional and health assistance to children pays off for society as a whole. That children who received food stamps or Medicaid in their early years grow up to be healthier, more productive adults who pay more in taxes and are less likely to need government assistance. The rates of return on both the food stamp program and Medicaid, the original aid for health care for the poor, are enormous. They're far bigger, far better substantiated than almost anything else you can do. If you ask, you know, what do we know about the payoff to infrastructure investment? Well, we think it's pretty big, but... that's not based on solid evidence. The evidence on these programs is enormous. So by cutting back on these programs, by creating this explosion of misery, they're not only making millions of Americans much, much poorer than they were, they're also making the country as a whole substantially poorer in the long run. It's an anti-growth policy. But of course, the cruelty is the point. And here we are. Many things happen to the economy, many things happen to society that are outside the control of the guy in the White House. Many bad things aren't really the fault of the party in power. This is absolutely, totally Donald Trump's fault. Get full access to Paul Krugman at paulkrugman.substack.com/subscribe

    An Explosion of Misery
  2. Jul 27

    The Fire This Time

    For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube. Transcript Some say the world will end in fire. Some say in ice. Robert Frost wrote that in 1920. With more than a century gone by, we have a verdict. It’s fire for the win. Hi, I’m Paul Krugman. I thought I’d talk today about a story that should be getting even more play than it is. I mean, there’s so much going on, but, you know, Europe is on fire. There are massive wildfires in France and Spain that have forced the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people, are menacing Bordeaux and not too far from Madrid. This, of course, follows on the enormous Canadian wildfires that for a while gave Toronto the worst air quality on the planet and turned the skies orange and the air foul across a large part of the eastern United States. And that, in turn, followed on that deadly heat dome in Europe that killed thousands of people. Okay. It’s pretty awful. It’s also something that was predictable and predicted. If you go back — I’ve been looking at a 2012 report from the UN, their climate project, that very clearly forecast growing incidents of extreme weather, extreme heatwaves, storms, flooding, and by implication, at least, wildfires. This was clearly in the cards. In fact, the story that somehow has not become standard is that climate scientists pulled off something that was extraordinary in intellectual terms. They got the basic outlines of what was coming and in many ways even the numbers on what was coming right decades in advance. In any kind of rational world we would be hailing them as heroes and very much listening to them about what we should be doing now. Of course where we are is that climate scientists are reviled. Climate change is almost crowded out of the political discussion and there’s a fair bit of actual personal persecution of people like Michael Mann and so on who are being punished for the sin of being right. Okay, of course, it’s more than just that. Now, there are sort of multiple levels to the climate story. At one level, it’s, you know, there are powerful vested interests that don’t want you to take global warming seriously. Fossil fuel interests are dying as an industry, but they’re dying slowly and they’re doing their best to take us all with them. And they have enormous influence in this administration. That feeds into something else, which is very true of the people now running the federal government, which is they hate science. So this is across the board. There’s almost always some financial interest, but it’s not just follow the money. It’s just a real hatred of the whole scientific enterprise. And so in an obvious sense, the climate denial is of a piece with the determination of RFK Jr’s health department to find a link between vaccines and autism. There have been many studies saying, no, it’s not there, but that’s not the answer they want. And they just kind of hate the idea of scientists, they hate the idea of objective research of any kind. And so that feeds right into the climate denial. And then, actually, it’s even broader and deeper than that. I don’t think you can really understand what’s going on in this administration without saying that there’s a kind of hatred of the intellect, not just science, but really any kind of hard thinking. I mean, at some, not very deep level, it’s an obvious correlation between Trump saying that the reason that we had fires in Canada is because the Canadians didn’t rake their forests, — all, by the way, two million square miles of boreal forest in Canada. You know, there’s just this absurdity, this kind of evil absurdity of the whole situation. And Pete Hegseth, having presided over the humiliation of the U.S. military because we were not ready for 21st century warfare and the Iranians were. So he’s busy suffering casualties and of course trying to hide them, suffering enormous damage and complete failure of war aims in the face of drones and missiles and basically this new world in which the Ukrainians are showing the way. This is warfare, which still requires some people, still requires enormous personal courage. But the decisive arms of battle are machines, fairly advanced machines, although cheap compared with the expensive hardware we have. And so here you have Pete Hegseth, faced with all of that, and he thinks that what the U.S. military needs is more testosterone. And that’s not a metaphor. Literally, he wants to give testosterone shots. The truth is that even the ancient Spartans didn’t win battles just by flexing their biceps. Intellect was an important part of war, even in the 5th century B.C. But now, above all, consider the craziness of thinking that it’s all about brawn and muscles and good grooming. Oh my god. But this is all hatred of basically anything that involves hard thinking. Again, the deep point is it’s not even exactly, I think, that people in this government are lying about climate, that they’re lying about military stuff. I mean, yes, of course there’s a lot of lying, but I’m not sure they even really have the concept that there is objective reality. And they certainly hate anybody who tries to argue that what they’re saying is objectively, empirically not true. How did we get here? I’ve been writing about oligarchy, and it’s certainly true that the big money — and the big money has never been bigger — that the big money has thrown its weight behind these deeply anti-intellect, anti-science people. This is in the long term, and not very long term, really against their own interests, but the short term lure of tax cuts and a corruptible government — because they’ve got the money to do the corruption — I guess outweighs that. And also, of course, quite a few of the mega-billionaires are themselves caught up in this. If we all get through this, Elon Musk and the general awfulness of the people who somehow end up with hundreds of billions of dollars is going to be a cautionary tale for generations to come. Anyway, that’s where we are. What can I say? I’d really like to not talk about depressing stuff, and I will now and then, but boy, we are in quite a state. And the sky is blue right now, so I guess I should go out and spend some time outdoors while we still can. Take care. Get full access to Paul Krugman at paulkrugman.substack.com/subscribe

    The Fire This Time
  3. Jul 25

    Talking Again With Gabriel Zucman

    For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube. In my writing about wealth concentration and oligarchy, I steal a lot from lean heavily on the truly work of Gabriel Zucman, who is a hugely important researcher (winner of the 2023 Clark Medal) who is also starting to play a major role in policy. I’ve talked to him before, but this seemed like a good time to bring him back. . . . TRANSCRIPT: Paul Krugman in Conversation with Gabriel Zucman (recorded 7/23/26) Paul Krugman: So, hi everyone. Paul Krugman here, bringing back Gabriel Zucman, probably the best guy for thinking about inequality, especially wealth issues. And since I’ve been writing about that and stealing a lot of Gabriel’s research, I thought we should talk again. So, hi Gabriel. Gabriel Zucman: Hi Paul, thanks for having me on. Krugman: Yeah. So, you have been writing—and now I’ve been, you know, cannibalizing it—a lot about wealth concentration. Why don’t you tell us about your reasons for focusing on wealth. Zucman: Basically, because there’s a fundamental tension in democratic societies between extreme wealth and the very possibility of a well-functioning democracy. And it’s not a new idea—don’t get me wrong. All the thinkers of democracy have written about this, all the way back to Aristotle, more than two thousand years ago. Krugman: Right. Zucman: But there was a period of time after World War II when many people thought that this issue belonged to the past. And it corresponded to a very particular moment in history when extreme wealth had largely disappeared after World War II, after the shocks of the first half of the twentieth century. But now, of course, it’s making a dramatic comeback. And so we are back to this discussion of: how do we deal with this tension? How do we organize the economy and our society to prevent the forms of capture of the political process, in particular, that are associated with extreme wealth? Krugman: Now, there’s a question. I mean, I’ve been on the inequality beat for an alarmingly long time—since you were a small child, actually. But in the early nineties, let’s say, it was all income rather than wealth. And a lot of it was top quintile, and maybe top one percent. And now you’re telling us that we need to focus on the wealth rather than the income of the top 0.0002 percent. Why that shift? Why wealth rather than income? Zucman: Well, it’s for two reasons. Number one is a macroeconomic reason, which is that wealth as a whole has been growing much faster than income. So if you look at the ratio of total household wealth to GDP in the US in 1980, it was around 200–250%, and today we are past 500%. This means that the total wealth of the country is equivalent to more than five years of annual production, five years of annual GDP. The second reason is that wealth itself has become much more concentrated, and the rise of wealth inequality, especially at the top of the distribution—at the very top—has been massive and has been even faster and stronger than the rise of income inequality. So we all know about the rise of the top one percent; the top one percent’s share of total income has increased from about ten percent of income in the US in 1980 to about 20% today. But at the top of the wealth distribution, the increase has been even much more dramatic than that. Krugman: At the risk of derailing it slightly, one thing that I myself have gone back and forth on—and certainly I get from comments on things I write—is a question comparing the wealth of the top 0.001%, or whatever: should we be comparing it to total wealth or to total income? And I know you’ve used wealth to GDP, and I have some thoughts, but you’ve done it both ways. Which do you use, and why would you use it? I don’t know which is right, but what are your thoughts? Zucman: I think both statistics are interesting and capture different aspects of reality. So if you’re interested in wealth inequality, in the concentration of wealth, the most meaningful statistic is to divide the wealth of the super-rich by total wealth in the economy. So, for instance, if you look at billionaires—roughly the top 0.1 percent of the population—they own about seven percent of total US wealth today. In 1980, they used to own about one percent of total US wealth. So it gives you a sense of the rise in wealth concentration. If you look at the super-top, you know, the oligarchs, the twenty wealthiest families—a very, very small fraction of the population—their total wealth is 2.0 to 2.2% of total household wealth in the economy. So I think that if you care about wealth inequality, these are the relevant numbers. Now, it’s also interesting to compute another statistic, which is the wealth of those top groups, and in particular the oligarchs, relative to total income or total output in the economy, because it gives you a sense of their influence on the economy and also because it gives you a sense of how much revenue there is at stake from taxing their wealth. So let me illustrate. If you get back to the 20 wealthiest people in the country, they have about 2 to 2.2% of total US wealth, and that’s equivalent to about 12–13% of total US GDP. Okay, so now you’re dividing a stock—their wealth—by a flow. And what it means is that if they spend their wealth—of course, they’re not going to do that in a given year, but imagine that they spent all their wealth in a given year—then they could buy 13% of all the goods and services produced in a given year in the US. So it really gives you a sense of just how big they are relative to the economy as a whole. And also it gives you a sense of what’s at stake with taxing billionaires. Because, of course, the way we think about tax revenue and about government budgets, is often in relation to GDP. And so here, what you have with billionaire wealth is that there’s a potential tax base; we are not taxing billionaire wealth today, which has been skyrocketing. That’s the flip side of the rise of wealth concentration. The positive aspect in all of that is that now there’s a lot of tax revenue at stake from potentially taxing the wealth of billionaires. Krugman: Yeah. I mean, my version is, I mean, most people have very little wealth, right? Wealth is highly concentrated, and what most people have is income. But the very top has wealth, and in some sense, the wealth-to-income ratio is telling you how many minions they can buy, how much influence they can buy in the economy and in politics. Is that kind of what you’re saying, or is there something else? Zucman: No, exactly. When I say that expressing their wealth relative to total income gives a sense of the influence they have, precisely it gives you a sense of how much they can spend on buying media companies, on funding electoral campaigns. Billionaires accounted for nineteen percent of total political spending during the 2024 federal election cycle. Krugman: Right. Zucman: They can fund think tanks and foundations, and influence the prevailing ideology like that. So it’s in that sense that it’s really useful, I think, to express their wealth relative to the value of the total income of people in the country. Krugman: So again, what’s your take on why total wealth has grown faster than income? Zucman: There are different stories, and I think the one that makes most sense to me and that seems most consistent with the data is that there’s been a number of policy changes since the 1980s that have favored wealth and capital, broadly speaking. So, for instance, you used to have rent controls for housing in many countries; when you lift rent controls, the value of housing wealth tends to go up. Many countries used to have pretty high corporate income tax rates, of almost fifty percent on average at the world level in the 1980s. Well, when the government takes half of the profits of companies, it capitalizes into stock prices; it reduces the market value of companies. But then when governments slash the corporate tax—and it has declined from about 45–50% to about 20–25% today at the global level—well, that again capitalizes into stock prices, and now it boosts the market value of companies, of equities. And you’ve had deregulation in many sectors that has boosted the profitability of corporations. You’ve had a significant change in the division of value added between labor and capital—the rise of the capital share, the decline in the labor share. That means more profits, more income for shareholders; again, it boosts the value of corporate equity. So all of these changes, they don’t happen like that out of nowhere. They are, of course, heavily influenced by policy. So, for instance, changes in factor shares—labor and capital shares—have been partly affected by the decline in union power. When unions are stronger, you tend to get a bigger labor share. When unions are weaker, you get a bigger capital share. Also in the way that we organize international economic relations, globalization. When we organize things without any kind of international tax coordination, or to put it differently, if we organize global economic integration by allowing total tax competition—no minimum taxes, no minimum tax rates—then capital owners can threaten to outsource production or to shift profits to low-tax places, and again, it reinforces the power of capital, hence the value of wealth. Krugman: Okay, But going back maybe twenty-five, thirty years ago—and again, I’ve been in the decrying-inequality business for a long time—we were saying, “You know, there’s a huge rise in income inequality, but it hasn’t really shown up in wealth.” And that really started to change. It’s not just that wealth has increased, but as you say, a huge increase in concentration in a few hands. So, what’s your story? I think I know what your s

    Talking Again With Gabriel Zucman
  4. Jul 22

    Oligarchy and the Media

    For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube. Transcript Good news. The second richest man in America might be prevented from taking over CNN. That's the good news. The bad news is, aside from thefact that he probably will manage to pull it off anyway, the bad news is that that would be only a small piece of the ongoing takeover of U.S. media by oligarchs. And in turn, the media takeover is just part of the extraordinary exercise of power by the extraordinarily wealthy small number of men who have been wreaking so much havoc with America as we know it. Hi, I'm Paul Krugman. Doing a video today, because I didn't feel like doing a usual chart-heavy, analytics-heavy post, but very much on a topic I have been writing about and will continue to write about, which is the rise of oligarchy in America. Now, I know some people balk at that. But we're not talking about some kind of hidden conspiracy. We're not talking about the Protocols of the Elders of PayPal. We are talking instead about stuff that's largely out in the open, though not fully understood, which is the way that an incredibly wealthy small group of men, mostly men, is able to commandeer a lot of the political life of a country that is still nominally a democracy. And that's a fundamental story for our time, maybe the fundamental story. How does that takeover work? Well, there is what I think of as the middle level, which is the place where it's most easily quantified, tends to get most of the attention, which is campaign finance. American campaigns are very money intensive and have become more money intensive because we've opened the floodgates with Citizens United. And a lot of that money comes from a very small number of incredibly wealthy people. According to the New York Times analysis, about 20% of all campaign contributions in 2024 came from 300 billionaires and their families. That's a pretty big impact. A country of more than 300 million people, and 300 billionaires are a fifth of campaign finance, and surely more strategic, more targeted than the average donor. So that's really a very, very large role just in that direct sense of who pays for campaigns. But that's not the only level. There is a lower level, lower in the sense of morally lower, I guess, which is just plain buying politicians, buying policies, paying for the policies you want with cash or crypto on the barrel. There has always been some of that in our system, but it was normally discreet, indirect, deniable, the revolving door. It was the case even more than 20 years ago that when the Bush administration pushed through a Medicare bill that was very favorable to pharmaceutical interests, that the then chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, who basically engineered and steered the bill through Congress, then promptly retired and became the chief lobbyist for the pharma lobby. So this kind of thing has been going on for a very long time. But now it's just blatant, out in the open, and the sums are massive. We just have literally billions of dollars thrown at the president and his family. No doubt large sums to other government officials, large sums to at least some members of Congress. So just plain buying the policies you want — and it’s not just that a large share of wealth is held by a small number of people, but that those are the people who are best positioned to really deploy their wealth to corrupt the system. There's also something, I guess you can call it a higher level, which is what military strategists call shaping the information space, which occurs at a couple of levels. One of them is the promotion of ideas and ideology that serve the interests of the very wealthy. You see that on many issues. You certainly see it very much on economic policy. If you ask, why do people still go out there saying that tax cuts pay for themselves and that tax cuts on the rich are an enormously powerful tool for stimulating economic growth? That's been tested to destruction, and it just ain't so. But it's a zombie idea. It keeps shambling along, eating people's brains, even though it should be dead. And the reason is, well, there's a lot of money in it. If you Google something I've written on, more often than not, when I do that, the top sponsored post at the top of the search page is an attack on me sponsored by some right-wing organization. And if you ask who supports those right-wing organizations, well, guess who. And it’s equally or worse the case in climate science. Scientific journals have been pretty good at not publishing climate disinformation. But when they do publish things that are somehow skeptical, or usually not outright denial, but attempting to sow discord about climate change, what percentage of those studies have received financial backing from fossil fuel interests? The answer is 100. It's all about the money. So this is, again, this is not new. Upton Sinclair: “It's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” So that has always been the case. But now we have something which is really, really important and is another level of this, which is the takeover of the media. So, okay. Ellison, or the Ellison family —because nominally this is Ellison's son in charge of Paramount — has already acquired CBS and has hired Bari Weiss to basically corrupt and destroy that network. If the deal for takeover of Warner proceeds, then CNN will get the same treatment. I'm finding CNN a very good news source, just braver at taking on what's really happening than my old employer, the New York Times, which is a great news organization and may be more necessary than ever, but tends to be cautious — and CNN is a little bit less cautious. But anyway, if he gets away with it, then CNN as we know it will almost disappear. It will almost turn into Fox News. Now, that won't be a profitable venture. There's already a Fox News, and so creating another one is not going to actually produce a lot of profits, if any, but that's not the objective. This is buying influence. Elon Musk, of course, took over the app formerly known as Twitter. Which was already becoming a more difficult place even before its takeover. I used to have, I guess, I think I had 4 million followers there. But it was impossible. I had to shut off comments because of the cesspool that Twitter had become. But now it is really by design. It is heavily tilted. That can be quantified. The algorithm really tilts it towards right-wing stuff, promotes really rabid racist views. And unfortunately, the network effects, the centrality that Twitter used to have, still keeps a lot of people on X, where they are influenced: people's views change. And also something that I don't know how to quantify, but it's very obvious if you follow and pay attention to people's positions, is that people who spend a lot of time on Twitter, elites who spend a lot of time on Twitter, start to think that the views they hear there are representative of where the country is — which they are not. But it does, in fact, tilt policy, tilt understanding to the right. The third richest man in America is Mark Zuckerberg, who made his billions from Facebook. Facebook is old-fashioned: I don't know anybody who uses Facebook. But I know that lots of people do. And it's still a very important information source and has, again, been tilted. On most of these media things, it's not as blatant as what Musk is doing at X. But it still has a big influence in changing the tone of the discussion and biasing the discussion towards positions that favor the interests of billionaires as well as favoring their prejudices if they happen to be, like Musk, authoritarian white supremacists. Okay. And the fourth richest man in America is Jeff Bezos, who purchased the WashingtonPost. I think he purchased the Post initially out of a belief that he was going to enhance his prestige. It certainly looked in his initial tenure as if this was actually more of a vanity purchase than a political purchase. But a billionaire is going to billionaire. And so he eventually shifted the Washington Post's editorial policy hard right, eviscerated the news division. There are still some brave, plucky reporters doing good reporting there, but it's a shadow of what it used to be. And of course, it's not at all the institution of Katherine Graham and Ben Bradlee, not anymore. So that's another challenge. What do you do about this? Obviously, one does what one can to try to limit this takeover of the information environment. And so we have the suit brought against the attempted purchase of Warner, hence CNN, by Paramount, hence Ellison. And that might succeed. You might think, well, if it's delayed, then what are the chances of actually ruling it out? Except that apparently there's a bit of a financial clock ticking for Ellison, who really has extended himself pretty far. So that's possibly going to block it, and that's good. It would have been great if someone had found a way to keep Musk from destroying Twitter. So you can look for solutions to immediate threats. But you're not going to hit all of these balls. And so the constant pressure towards a takeover of the news media, constant pressure towards a takeover of the general information environment by a handful of billionaires, is not going to go away. The constant threat or reality of corruption of the government by billionaires is not going to go away. Maybe once Trump is gone, it'll become less blatant, but it won't go away just because someone more discreet takes office. Even if we have an honest president, which in the current environment, I'm sorry, does mean a Democrat, but even if we have an honorable president, the corruption of the system will still be a continual threat because of all the money flowing around. So in the end, the only way out of this, the only reasonably durable solution is to not have so much wealth at the top. If you

    Oligarchy and the Media
  5. Jul 18

    Lina Khan on AI and More

    Lina Khan, who chaired the Federal Trade Commission under Joe Biden, is one of the smartest and most influential thinkers about antitrust in our high-tech era, and one who has blazed new paths in policymaking. I spoke with her at a Graduate Center event back in March, and caught up with her again earlier this week for another enlightening conversation. For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube. . . . TRANSCRIPT: Paul Krugman in Conversation with Lina Khan (recorded 7/14/26) Paul Krugman: This week, I managed to get to talk to Lina Khan, who was the incredibly influential and smart head of the FTC in the previous administration—with the current administration doing everything it can to undo her work. She played an important role in the Mamdani transition team and has had a lot of smart thoughts about technology and policy right now. And I thought we could talk for a bit about this, well, it’s always a bizarre moment these days, but this is the bizarre moment we’re in. And so, hi. Lina Khan: Hi, great to be here. Krugman: I want to get into technology and AI, but I wanted to just start with something that just happened. One of your special causes, which is “Click to Cancel,” which you tried to get as a national policy, just went through in New York City. Can you talk a little bit about what was achieved here and why? Khan: I’d be happy to. So, last week, the Mamdani administration announced that they are moving forward with two consumer protection initiatives. One was the finalization of a “Click to Cancel” rule, which basically says that businesses have to make it as easy to cancel a subscription as it is to sign up for one. This rule is responding to the fact that we’ve seen a pretty significant pivot to service-based revenue, and more and more companies are relying on subscriptions as a regular business revenue line. And that has created an opportunity for firms to create a lot of friction when people are trying to unsubscribe. A lot of people can relate to situations where it’s very easy to sign up, or sometimes you’re enrolled without even your full knowledge or consent. But then once you try to cancel, companies can make you jump through all sorts of hoops. Maybe you signed up with one click online, but to cancel you have to phone somebody, except the hours are really restricted or there’s nobody there to pick up the phone. In some instances, you may actually have to go in person. When we were at the FTC, we got thousands upon thousands of complaints, and people shared how, even during the pandemic when they were looking to cancel their gym membership, some gyms required that they go in person even after they had left the state. So this has been a growing problem, and people lose real money from it. I mean, there are estimates that, in New York City alone, people could be collectively losing over $160 million a year. So this rule, which is going to go into effect in October, is an incredibly important step forward. The administration also announced that they’re going to be proposing a rule to tackle junk fees. These are the fees that oftentimes show up at the very end of a transaction, even though they were not reflected in the original advertised price. Sometimes they’re called convenience fees, service fees, or amenity fees. And these are non-discretionary; people have no choice but to see them included. Companies will, again, often not advertise them on the front end, which is both deceptive for consumers but also gives them an unfair competitive advantage, because honest businesses that are marketing the all-in price then lose business to those firms that instead do pricing where they market a lower price and then add all the additional fees at the end. So, I’m really thrilled that the Mamdani administration is moving forward on these two initiatives, especially because we have seen some very serious backsliding at the federal level, where consumer protection initiatives have either been abandoned entirely or powerful companies that have connections to the White House can basically pay their way out of legal accountability. And so it’s incredibly important to see cities and states fill in that gap. Krugman: I couldn’t actually quite figure this out, but there’s this other initiative from Mamdani: public interest technology. Are you involved with that? Khan: It is something we considered during the transition and wanted to set up the administration with the option. But, yeah, this is basically... they will be creating a team that is going to be laser-focused on improving service delivery—technological service delivery, digital service delivery—to New Yorkers. And so there are all sorts of online portals that people have to interact with that are not really optimized; really important city websites that are still optimized for desktop, and when people try to use them on their phones, they break down. And so there’s going to be a lean team of technologists designed to go in and make sure that across city services, people are having a good experience and that these things are easy to use and functional for people. I would say the effort has some analogs to what was done at the federal level with the U.S. Digital Service, which was a team in the White House of technologists back in the Obama era. When I was at the Federal Trade Commission, we similarly brought in a team of technologists, and we’ve seen that, especially as more and more commerce goes online, and more and more government services go online, it’s incredibly important to have technologists on board designed to make sure that these things are easy to use and well-functioning. Krugman: I’ve seen a couple of areas where essentially governmental functions are initially done by trying to buy off-the-shelf technologies or bring in Microsoft or whatever. And I know of at least a couple of examples where it was a huge improvement just getting their own people because they kind of knew what people actually needed. So, I don’t know if you’re thinking along those lines or where it goes. Khan: I think you’re right that it does get to this deeper issue of what does it mean for the government to have capabilities and to actually build those capabilities in-house. I think we’ve seen various eras where the government will largely rely on outsourcing, relying on various consulting firms. And there’s a first-order question as to whether the government is really getting a good return on investment there. I think we’ve all seen the news stories about New York City having paid millions of dollars to McKinsey to produce a report saying, effectively, “Put your garbage in garbage cans.” But beyond that, I think over-reliance on outside consulting firms can also deprive the state of building in-house state capacity, which can be incredibly important for the long term. And so, again, I think the administration, through bringing some of these functions in-house, is also going to be investing in those long-term capabilities within government. Krugman: Yeah. I’ll give you, just quickly, my own example. There are bigger ones, but everybody doing sort of macroeconomics now is utterly reliant on this thing called FRED, the Federal Reserve Economic Data, from the St. Louis Fed, of all places. And the thing is, they did not outsource. They just asked some of their own people, who actually knew what working economists needed, to produce a website that is really optimized for people like me, and that’s just incredibly helpful. I assume that there are many, many examples where that could be done. Khan: Yeah. I mean, the other risk that you create if you are entirely dependent on some external actor is that a single business decision can render some of those products useless or severely degrade the capability overnight, or it turns out that there’s a new subscription and so there are all these additional costs. And so, either diversifying those inputs or creating more in-house capability is important insurance around some of that private power. Krugman: Okay. And New York City would certainly be among the world’s 20 largest economies so this is not a small issue. But these days, everyone is talking about AI all the time, in terms of the economics and a lot of political stuff. You were doing a lot of work on AI at the FTC, and you have written quite a lot since. I wanted to pick your brain a bit, but why don’t you tell me where we were going before the change in administrations on AI policy, and we can move forward from there. Khan: At the Federal Trade Commission, we were really focused on both the competition implications of artificial intelligence technologies, as well as some of the protection implications. On the competition front, we were really focused on, first of all, understanding: what is the stack? What is each layer of the AI supply chain of sorts? And how do we make sure we understand what each of the economic properties are across the board? And so you have the chips, you have these hyperscalers, you have cloud infrastructure, you have these models, and then you have various apps and services built on top of those models. And what we’ve seen in other markets, including Web 2.0 and in digital markets, is that it can be very easy for one of these layers to become monopolized because of certain network effects, and because of economic properties that lend those markets to tip quickly. If you allow monopolization without additional rules—such as common carriage or requiring equal access on equal terms—it can really result in other layers and other markets similarly becoming monopolized or otherwise becoming distorted, rather than principles of open and free and fair competition being really what’s allowing more of this economy to thrive and develop. And so we were really looking at the AI stuff through that lens, trying to understa

    Lina Khan on AI and More
  6. Jul 15

    The Forever War Gets Scary

    For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube. Transcript The war with Iran has just reached a very scary phase, and I’m not talking about the bombs and the drones. Hi, Paul Krugman here, doing a brief podcast instead of a full post, because I actually spent the day with friends and doing other things, and this is a quicker alternative. If you’re following the news, you know that the sort-of ceasefire with Iran has been called off. Trump has reinstated the blockade. The Iranians are back to hitting things with their drones and missiles. The U.S. position has been wildly erratic. First, Trump said he was going to impose a 20% toll on all shipping, basically turning the Strait of Hormuz into a U.S. toll booth, which would have been wildly illegal and irresponsible, aside from being impossible. Now he says, no, he’s going to demand that countries invest in the United States, which is also actually wildly illegal. But in any case, it’s never going to happen. And yet, this is extremely scary. The reason to be afraid is not that I think the war is going to come to America. It’s not even that I think the United States is going to seriously try to occupy Iran. We don’t have the troops. We don’t have the missiles. Trump depleted a large share of our weaponry in the course of his failed war so far. So this is likely going to be punitive strikes, maybe some war crimes along the way, but that’s all. But what is really frightening here is that it does appear as if Trump has given up on trying to extract something that looks like victory. If we go back just a few days ago, it appeared that what was going to happen was that Trump was going to de facto pull out, give upon the project, take advantage of falling oil prices because the strait was sort of kind of open — and try to spin the story about this was truly, this was actually an American victory and the economy is great and look at the stock market. And, you know, just it was a little bit — more than a little bit —stupid and doomed. It was also kind of amazing because a serious attempt to end the conflict would have required facing up to reality, saying, OK, this war didn’t go well, but America remains great. Sorry about that. But that was apparently not something Trump emotionally could bring himself to do. He just cannot admit that this venture failed. He can never admit that anything failed. We’re going to be searching for the saboteurs of the reflecting pool for the remainder of his presidency. This is a change in strategy that is ominous because what is Trump’s plan for the midterm elections? Here the idea presumably was that there would be enough economic success and people would have sufficiently short memories that they would possibly give Trump credit for opening the Strait of Hormuz, but in any case have put the gas price shock and the whole disruption surrounding the war behind them. And be ready to start admitting that this is the golden age that Trump and company keep on claiming it is. Now that’s all off. Now it’s just we’re going to bomb Iran. No clear strategy there, but we’re not going to even pretend that things are okay. We’re going to blockade them, which actually has a little bit more leverage, but no hint that anything might be resolved in a way that would help Republican chances in the midterms. So what is going to happen? I don’t think it’s a coincidence that just as Trump essentially gives up, not gives up in the sense of abandoning his war, but gives up on trying to achieve anything he can even spin as a positive outcome, that we now have an announcement that this Thursday he’s going to have a primetime speech, which reports say is going to be about election fraud in 2020. Some reports hinting that he might try to declare the two Democratic senators from Georgia somehow illegitimate. Okay, that’s not going to actually work. And nobody’s going to be convinced by the claim that he actually won the 2020 election. But what is happening is that effectively he’s setting up the pretext, the groundwork for massive interference in the vote this November. That we’re basically seeing the stage set for some kind of attempt to block fair elections, maybe block elections entirely. I don’t know how this is going to play out. But we are really now at the point where it’s pretty clear that Trump and the people around him have given up on actually winning the election. They’ve decided instead that somecombination of propaganda, misinformation, disinformation, and possibly massive illegality is their way forward. And don’t say they wouldn’t do that. That has been famous last words every step of the way. The proposition that there were some things that even Trump and company would not do has been the best way to be wrong about everything, every step of the Trump administration. So in a peculiar way, the fact that Trump is back to bombing Iran is really bad news, not because of the bombs. Yes, it’s terrible and all that, But not because I have any real fear that America is going to be at risk from a foreign power, but because I think it signals an enormous risk to us from our own president, our own government. Be afraid, be very afraid. And take care. Get full access to Paul Krugman at paulkrugman.substack.com/subscribe

    The Forever War Gets Scary
  7. Jul 11

    Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets

    For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube. With everything else going on, the ongoing demolition of financial regulation and supervision, which is raising the risks of financial crisis, isn’t getting much attention. So I spoke with Dennis Kelliher, president of Better Markets, an independent think tank that is trying to sound the alarm. Full disclosure: my nephew works at Better Markets. But I would have wanted to talk to Kelleher regardless. . . . TRANSCRIPT: Paul Krugman in Conversation with Dennis Kelleher (recorded 7/10/26) Paul Krugman: Hi everyone. It seems hard to believe now, but the great financial crisis of 2008 and its aftermath are now in the distant past. I think, in fact, in November there will be some voters who weren’t born yet. But for some of us, it was a huge, defining event, and financial markets as a source of economic problems and instability hasn’t gone away. And I thought I would talk with Dennis Kelleher, who is the head of Better Markets, an independent think tank devoted to trying to make financial markets work better for the rest of us. And in the note, I’ll mention I do have a personal connection to Better Markets, but that’s not why I’m interviewing Mr. Kelleher. Dennis is a former Senate aide, and as you know, congressional staffers are one of the great sources of expertise in America. And we want to talk about financial markets, so hi. Dennis Kelleher: Hi. Thanks for having me, Paul. Good to see you. Krugman: Good to see you, too. I have a bunch of questions, but we can go wherever this goes. The first thing is, whenever I try to talk about financial market functioning, what comes up is that most financial assets are owned by a relatively small part of the population, even if you take 401(k)s into account. So why isn’t this just a fight among the investor class? Why should everyone care about this? Kelleher: Well, it’s a great question because there’s such a lack of information about financial markets, the financial system, and frankly, as you well know, the economy. You know, one of the great services that you and many of your colleagues have provided is basically translating what’s happening in the economy and financial markets to the average Main Street American, reader of the New York Times, and consumers of news. And the truth is that the financial markets and obviously the economy impact everybody, and you’re right. This November during the election, some of the people voting will not have actually had any awareness of the 2008 financial crash, which was the biggest crash in the United States since 1929, which caused the Great Depression. And even though they may not have been born at that time, the people who are voting in November are still living through the repercussions of the 2008 crash. We basically lost an entire generation of Americans, economically speaking, from that crash. It took ten years for the U-6, the broad unemployment rate, to return to pre-crash levels. It was 2017 before that happened. And indeed, the Fed did an interesting study, which people can quibble with the baseline, but they did a study in 2018 that showed at the end of 2016, 90% of Americans were poorer than they were in 2007 by 17 to 35 percent. So if you think about that, at the end of 2016, the best-off American in that ninety percent bucket was 17% poorer. Now you could say the baseline of 2007 was inflated, but by and large, 90% of Americans have been doing pretty poorly since the crash for a lot of reasons. And so in November, when those people go to vote, they might not know it but they are actually living through the continuing economic consequences, financial consequences, and actually political consequences. Because the rise of Trump and the dissatisfaction of voters, Americans, and actually voters in the UK and elsewhere—Martin Wolf from the Financial Times wrote a terrific book called The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. It shows how if countries don’t deliver for the broad population, then democracy erodes and people look for easy answers, authoritarians, and strongmen. And we end up with Brexit, we end up with Trump. And so you’re right. People don’t remember the crash, but the crash is incredibly important to everybody in America. And the circumstances that we find ourselves in today are unfortunately echoing many of the drivers of that crash. Now, I didn’t answer your question about the investor class, but when you look at investors, something like 87% of the value of the stock market is owned by the top 10%. On the other hand, there are today $27 trillion worth of assets in 401(k)s and IRAs, retirement accounts. It’s overwhelmingly skewed to the top, but not only. And importantly, one of the great projects that America really needs to undertake is to democratize finance so that financial assets and the ability to grow wealth is more broadly spread out. One of the big crippling problems we have today is that the bottom 50% of Americans, about 165 million Americans, only have 2.5% of the wealth of the country. It’s astonishing, right? And so a big part of what Better Markets does in economic and financial policy making is to try and rebalance what we see as a rigged economy that’s driven by a rigged and broken financial system. So our economy is producing very well for the top ten percent, and our financial system is structured to deliver those results. Now, part of that is wealth extraction, but a lot of it is just structural drivers put in place by policy makers in Washington that cater to the top ten percent. And that, unfortunately, Paul, as you know, is on a bipartisan basis. Krugman: We’re gonna get into that in a bit, but let me just ask a question. I’m gonna actually kind of veer off course, although this is something I wanted to get to. Top ten percent. So basically, ownership of stock is, roughly speaking, a top ten percent activity. When you talk about skewed, I mean, I have a sense that it is actually increasingly skewed towards a fraction of a fraction. Do you have anything I should take away about how the system is rigged or skewed within the stock-owning population? Kelleher: Well, I think the problem is that the higher up you go on the wealth scale, the greater your ability to accumulate even more wealth in a tax-free fashion, right? And then to pass it along to both use it today as if it was cash and income, not be taxed on it, use it, and then hand it off through inheritance without being taxed to heirs for multi-generational wealth concentration at the top. It’s bad for the economy and bad for democracy. I mean, you’ve talked to Ro Khanna and there’s all sorts of people with different ideas about what to do. We’ve got a wealth tax on the ballot in California. But in terms of the structural drivers, one of the problems we see at Better Markets is that Democrats don’t pay enough attention to the financial structural drivers of the economy. So here’s just a simple example that people are often surprised by. Community banks in the United States—there’s about a little over four thousand of them. You see them on every corner across America, particularly in “real America,” as opposed to where you and I live, Paul, which is by no means real America. But those banks lend out seventy-five cents on average of every dollar of deposit. The big Wall Street banks, they lend out somewhere less than fifty cents of every dollar of deposit. And that’s because it’s so much more profitable for them catering to the rich, mostly engaging in financial activities, trading, and capital markets activities. And so ask yourself, why is that? Well, that’s because the rules enacted by the banking regulators and Congress and other regulators allow the profit margins on the financialized trading side to be so much greater than on the lending side. I mean, truthfully, the rules that are created in Washington actually discriminate against lending to the real economy. And so you have community banks which don’t have capital markets activities. They’re bread-and-butter banks for the most part. It depends on how you define community banks; some people define them all the way up to Wall Street, but those are people in the propaganda industry. But these are banks that are actually driving the real economy. So for example, the community banks have somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% of the total assets of the banking system, but they actually provide somewhere in the neighborhood of 40% of all loans to small businesses. Krugman: Right. Kelleher: Well, why are we not having rules that skew towards benefiting the real productive economy and away from the trading financialized activities which serve the very top one or two percent and not the rest? And actually, it not only doesn’t serve the rest of the country, it’s at the expense of the rest of the country. Better Markets put out a report showing that last year the growth in major Wall Street bank lending to what are called “non-banks” grew by 50%. Do you know what their lending to the real economy grew by? Zero. Zero. And so a lot of these activities are being pushed out into what are called non-banks because it’s more profitable. It’s more profitable because the rules make it more profitable. The rules are created in Washington by policymakers, regulators, and legislators who, unfortunately, too often are beholden to the wrong people. And so you end up with this cycle where the rules keep reinforcing the current structure that’s channeling activity and money to the top and away from Main Street. Krugman: So as I understood it, reading some of Better Markets’ reports, if you’re a big financial institution, lending to non-banks probably ends up being a roundabout route by which the money reaches lenders, but not through the original bank. They actually have kind of a regulatory advantage because it’s lower capit

    Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets
  8. Jul 10

    An Encouraging Encounter With Real Americans

    For all my interviews and more, subscribe on YouTube. Transcript Today i want to give you some encouraging news about the state of the heartland. Well, actually New Jersey, but you got a problem with that? But I did something kind of different yesterday — which has prevented me from producing a usual analytical Substack post — and it was actually a very uplifting experience. So hi, I’m Paul Krugman. What i did yesterday was participate in jury selection in Mercer County, New Jersey, where i am still a legal resident. That is something I’ve done before: back in 2020 I spent 16 weeks on a grand jury. It was done remotely, because it was the depths of Covid. It was a New Jersey grand jury, which is not high profile cases. It’s actually very ordinary cases in which the police want to bring someone to trial but 23 citizens must agree that they have provided sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial. You don’t have to judge guilt or innocence but you have to judge that there is sufficient evidence to warrant bringing charges. It was enlightening. I got to see a lot of the negative side of life, obviously, but it was just it was a pretty good experience on the whole. So I was summoned again this year. I wouldn’t have been able to do it, but I had to participate in the selection in order to explain to the judge, if necessary, why I could not be available during the period of this grand jury — a bunch of already agreed to conferences and talks in Europe. So it wasn’t going to be something I could do, but I did the right thing and went through the whole procedure of listening to the explanation, being pronounced present, and waiting to see the judge and explain the issue. Now, as it turned out, I didn’t even have to do that. By the time they had reached the people who had said they could not do it, including me and 77 other people, they already had filled the jury. So it ended up that it was time-consuming, okay, not a terrible thing, but it was a procedure that had to be done. And I did my citizenly duty and was released well into the afternoon. But what was interesting about it was that those of us who had said we couldn’t do it — 78 people in a Zoom room — had a long wait while the judge did whatever she needed to do with the rest. And after a little while some people unmuted themselves and we started having a conversation. This was by definition kind of a random sample of people — of course people who have felony convictions are not part of this, people are not us citizens are not part of it, and to be fair it’s Mercer County which includes Princeton although it also includes Trenton. Still, it’s on average an affluent, highly educated county so this was not exactly typical America but it wasn’t exactly the elite either: This wasn’t a virtual room full of Princeton professors. So conversation started. Obviously people are not fools so it wasn’t about politics, it wasn’t about current events, it started with people saying “anybody want to recommend some books that I should read?” and then turned to TV shows and movies and then somehow or other we got involved in a discussion of AI and applications and learning. Because there were several school teachers. Not everyone spoke up — most people didn’t — but everyone was listening, it seemed fairly attentively. And it was a great conversation! People were reasonable, they were either well informed or were happy to say “I don’t know about this.” There was actually some discussion about “how should I where should I go for news now that everything is so polarized” — nobody talked politics but they did talk about the fact that news is kind of hard to parse these days. The book recommendations, the TV and movie recommendations to the extent that I know them were pretty good. And the whole tone was, wow, it was civilized. I felt a little bit as if I was in the middle of a Norman Rockwell painting. By the way, yes, people did recognize me and a couple said you know I read your Substack and I talked a little bit but I made a deliberate effort to step back and not play the celebrity there. And that was good, because I got to listen to other people who were really level-headed, interesting, pretty well informed about a bunch of stuff. Oh, and just to say that this was New Jersey, so it was a very diverse group of people — a random selection of people from New Jersey, which meant that it was multi-racial and multi-ethnic. The clerk had some trouble with pronouncing everybody’s name, which was okay — I mean everybody was very forgiving of that. So it was very much America as I see it — a country of lots of people who look very different, who sound different (except a fair number of people did have New Jersey accents.) And it was just a far more hopeful scene — at least I found it much more hopeful —about the state of the country. It turns out that ordinary Americans — this is, again ordinary Americans from Mercer County, New Jersey, but still — ordinary Americans are a lot nicer, more thoughtful, more willing to hold interesting discussions than you might think. And it does seem to me, given all the political news, there’s a lot of people out there, I would say primarily on the right, but not only on the right, who fundamentally hold ordinary Americans in contempt, who believe that you have to go with cheap slogans and that you can appeal to the baser instincts of everybody’s nature and that’s the way that you win. And obviously they do sometimes win. But it’s worth going out there a little bit. I mean I’m never going to be the kind of person who travels around and has conversations with the person in the street and reports back on what I’ve learned about the real America. But I actually did have, by accident, a pretty good selection of real Americans — because we’re all real Americans — and came out of it feeling just much lighter in mood. You know, this country is actually okay if we can just get past some of the people who are trying to take us down a dark path. We’re not bad people — we’re mostly good people. And there’s a lot there’s a lot of uplift out here if you’re willing to see it. For once if I say I’m ending on a happy note, I really am. Take care. Get full access to Paul Krugman at paulkrugman.substack.com/subscribe

    An Encouraging Encounter With Real Americans

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