Why do more pressure, more meetings, and more accountability so often produce the same outcomes? John Dues and Andrew Stotz explore Deming's overlooked insight that results are created by systems — not effort alone. Learn why reacting to variation often makes performance worse, how leaders unintentionally create noise through "tampering," and what it takes to build improvement that actually lasts. TRANSCRIPT 0:00:02.6 Andrew Stotz: My name is Andrew Stotz, and I'll be your host as we dive deeper into the teachings of Dr. W. Edwards Deming. Today I'm continuing my discussion with John Dues, who is part of the new generation of educators striving to apply Dr. Deming's principles to unleash student joy in learning. And the topic for today is why reacting to results won't improve your system. John, take it away. 0:00:25.6 John Dues: Hey, Andrew. It's good to be back. 0:00:28.6 Andrew Stotz: Yeah, it has been a while. 0:00:30.5 John Dues: It has been a while. We missed a couple months for scheduling stuff, so we're fitting it in on Memorial Day here. 0:00:38.1 Andrew Stotz: Hard working. Even on a holiday. 0:00:41.1 John Dues: Even on a holiday, yep. No doubt. I stumbled across this, I'd seen this a number of times, but I thought I'd start with this quote from Deming. He would often sort of pose this simple question at his seminars. He would, you know, kind of ask the crowd, "what will it take to take an organization to unprecedented levels of quality?" And he was, you know, truth be told, he was kind of setting the crowd up because he knew inevitably someone in the crowd would say, you know, by everyone doing their best. And he would immediately respond then, "they already are, and that's the problem," right? So that's kind of the focus today. And, you know, that sort of exchange to me exposes a belief that still shapes in my world how many schools are led today, and I'm sure many businesses as well. And that is this idea that when results fall short, the instinct is to push harder, you know, respond faster, demand more from people. You know, it feels responsible, it looks decisive, but it rarely, very rarely produces better outcomes, especially on the long term. You know, in many schools, you know, leadership revolves around reviewing outcomes. 0:02:05.8 John Dues: You know, just like probably in your business, you know, we're examining test scores, attendance rates, discipline data, you know, lots of other types of indicators, and we're often comparing those results to what came before. And then we have all these meetings and we have charts and explanations and action steps. And, you know, despite all this attention, all these best efforts, results often remain unchanged. 0:02:30.3 Andrew Stotz: Yeah, it made me think about when, you know, let's just say that a tragedy happens and then everybody wants the government to tighten the laws. And then they're oftentimes responding to a short term, or let's say, normal common cause variation. And next thing you know, you have 10 laws coming down on society that nobody can untangle. 0:02:56.3 John Dues: Yeah. 0:02:56.8 Andrew Stotz: And if you were to actually stand up... And this is, I think, to me, some of the crux of what made Deming different and difficult, was that if you were to actually stand up and say, "my proposal is to do nothing." 0:03:04.0 John Dues: Yeah. 0:03:16.3 Andrew Stotz: Everybody wants action. 0:03:17.3 John Dues: Yep, everybody wants action. It's, you know, the issue is certainly not a lack of effort. You know, I mean, I see it every day, you know, leaders, educators, they work hard. The vast majority, you know, work very, very hard, which is probably the case in most businesses. And you know, in most cases people are already doing their best. And that's kind of the point, right? The issue is that the results are those outputs of those systems. You know, they're produced by the system and they can't be improved directly, the results, that is. You know, but that's what we focus on. As leaders we focus typically on results and, you know, we end up reacting to what the system produces rather than changing, you know, how that system works. And I think that's probably, if not the, one of the key lessons that, you know, Dr. Deming taught in his four-day seminars. And it's just like what you said, you know, that reaction, it feels like action, but it doesn't change, you know, the performance of the system. So, you know, over the past several months, I've argued, you know, as I've been writing about this, that leaders often respond too quickly. 0:04:32.4 John Dues: Just like what you were, you know, talking about in your example there. When the numbers change, it's so often just that common cause, that routine variation, and they don't have any tools to distinguish signal from noise. That's sort of one characterization. So, you know, what happens is these common cause patterns just remain. And when results are not where we want them to be, we just respond to the data itself, right? Instead of actually working towards the system. And we, you know, in my world, it's lots of meetings, you know, we ask... As leaders, we ask for explanations. I definitely did this before I discovered this methodology. We adjust expectations. You know, we in education are sort of notorious for new initiatives piled on old initiatives, but none of these actions, none of these things, it feels productive, but none of them are actually changing that underlying system. And I think that's really where the problem lies in my mind. 0:05:39.5 Andrew Stotz: Yeah, the concept of tampering is such an interesting one, you know, that he talks about, about tampering with a system, you know, just does more damage. 0:05:49.2 John Dues: More damage. Yeah, that's exactly right. That's kind of the irony or the paradox that you often find in the Deming philosophy is that until people actually stop and think about it, you know, if they stop long enough to consider what he was saying, then they start to sort of come around to those ideas. But we often don't slow down enough to actually do that, right? And so, you know, it begs the questions, if reacting to results is ineffective, and we've said that, you know, here before, what is it leaders should do instead? And I, you know, I think a really useful, different starting point is a question to ask yourself. And you know, that first question is, is the process that produced this observation the same as the process that produced the others, right? Is this actually something different being produced in our system or, when we really stop and think about it, is it more of the same? You know, and the answer to that question is going to dictate your next steps. But the key thing is that that question shifts attention away from the most recent data point and toward the system that generated it. You know, it forces you to look back more than just, you know, last month or last year. 0:07:07.7 John Dues: Now you're looking at what's happened the last several months, what's happened in the last several years in this system. You know, I think then if the process has not changed or the system has not changed, I kind of use those interchangeably, then what you often discover is that the results are likely consistent with what the system has been producing all along. And so in that case, which is again so often the case in a common cause system, asking for explanations or making immediate adjustments doesn't address that underlying issue. And it, just like you were saying, it's what Deming called tampering. And it actually makes things worse. All this action, all this activity, it feels good in the moment, but you're actually making things worse in your organization by overreacting or reacting to the wrong things. Now, on the other hand, if the process has changed, then there might be something to investigate, but the goal is not to explain the result, it's to understand what is different in your system. So in either case, whether it's a change or something hasn't changed, I think the key thing is the focus moves from the data to that underlying process or that underlying system. 0:08:29.4 Andrew Stotz: It's... I've been working at my coffee factory with the accounting team using the accounts receivable days and the inventory days as a measure that we can track over time. And then I've, you know, developed a pretty simplified PDSA for the team, considering they've never heard any of this stuff. And so, and then, you know, first thing we saw when we looked at the data was that the inventory days really went down a lot in December. We're like... And that was because we wrote off a lot of inventory at the end of the year that was obsolete or whatever. So there was a... And that's where I could say there is an example of a special cause. There's no sense in changing the system because of that one write-off, although that can give us some indication like, we need to be better in some other areas. But to look at that one special cause as unique wouldn't make sense. 0:09:35.7 John Dues: Yeah. And in that case, is the data point from December being produced by the same system that the other data points came from. 0:09:45.6 Andrew Stotz: It's the same system except there's an extreme adjustment to the system. 0:09:53.1 John Dues: Right. 0:09:53.3 Andrew Stotz: Which is the write off. 0:09:55.5 John Dues: Does that happen every year? 0:09:58.3 Andrew Stotz: Yeah, it's gonna happen in every business that has a warehouse and production because, you know, there's gonna be waste, there's gonna be obsolescence, there's gonna be mistakes, and you... It's just very hard to get it perfect. My first job at Pepsi was counting the inventory, basically, and I ran a team of seven people that counted the inventory every single day. And you know, you just, you know, yo