Top Traders Unplugged

Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
  • 4.8 (577)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED WEEKLY

Discover the fascinating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his remarkable co-hosts. Each week, we bring you compelling conversations with legendary investors, leading economists, masterful traders, and forward-thinking thought leaders. From Trend Following and Global Macro to Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, and Volatility, we uncover the strategies, stories, and lessons behind their success. Gain actionable insights from industry veterans as we celebrate their achievements and learn from their challenges. Stay ahead in the ever-evolving landscape of investing - tune in weekly and elevate your financial knowledge. For the latest episodes and expert insights, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com

  1. OI20: Why Commodities Refuse to Trend Forever ft. Doug King

    9H AGO

    OI20: Why Commodities Refuse to Trend Forever ft. Doug King

    Moritz Siebert speaks with Doug King about what it really means to trade commodities through cycles, distortions, and stress. Drawing on decades at Cargill and more than twenty years running a commodities hedge fund, Doug explains why innovation keeps scarcity narratives in check, why commodities resist buy and hold logic, and how real edge comes from cash markets rather than futures screens. He reflects on defining trades in oil, nickel, and agriculture, the limits of volatility targeting, and the discipline required to survive violent squeezes. The result is a grounded account of conviction, risk control, and why commodities reward patience more than prediction. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Moritz on Twitter. Follow Doug on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks and introduction to Top Traders Unplugged 01:24 - Introducing Doug King and his background 04:49 - From Cargill to hedge funds and the pull of commodities 07:05 - Why the fund is purely discretionary and fundamentals driven 09:50 - Team size, selectivity, and waiting for the right trades 10:45 - Why commodities are cyclical and innovation breaks scarcity 13:46 - Electrification and where long term excitement may lie 15:37 - Defining edge in commodities trading 18:12 - Physical delivery, convergence, and real market signals 20:23

    48 min
  2. SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

    4D AGO

    SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

    Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet dominance of reflexive flows over fundamentals. Cem challenges common readings of volatility, explains where real fear hides in options markets, and outlines why tail exposure becomes critical late in cycles. The discussion broadens into portfolio construction, questioning the legacy of 60/40 investing and the illusion of diversification built during falling-rate decades. Grounded in history, market structure, and political cycles, this conversation offers a disciplined framework for navigating regimes where leverage, policy, and inequality quietly redefine risk. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 00:49 - Geopolitical tensions beneath the surface of markets 02:07 - Extreme bullish sentiment and record low cash levels 04:12 - Margin use, positioning, and why this setup is fragile 06:07 - Why the VIX fails as a true fear indicator 11:48 - Buffett’s concentration and risk management through quality 16:27 - Leverage, Sharpe ratios, and misunderstood diversification 21:02 - Trend following performance and late year positioning 23:48 - Positioning, reflexivity, and market microstructure 28:25 - Volatility traps and convexity before stress events 31:06...

    1h 11m
  3. GM92: Politics in an Age of Hard Borders and Rising Hegemons ft. Gary Gerstle

    DEC 17

    GM92: Politics in an Age of Hard Borders and Rising Hegemons ft. Gary Gerstle

    In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary Gerstle traces the erosion of the neoliberal order and the rise of a political logic that places national strength above universal norms. He examines how affordability stress, authoritarian impulses and fragmented parties are redrawing economic life and democratic expectations. The discussion widens into a global map of competing hegemons and the uneasy choices facing Europe and the United States. What emerges is a portrait of a century unsettled, yet not without agency. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on LinkedIn. Follow Gary on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions 00:44 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion 01:40 - Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives 02:24 - Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders 04:00 - Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it 07:02 - The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes 08:17 - Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump’s second term 10:06 - Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump...

    1h 10m
  4. SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    DEC 13

    SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

    This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design? ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series 00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance 02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut 03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals 06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty 08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models 11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals 13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets 16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility 19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation 22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets 28:07...

    1h 3m
  5. TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

    DEC 10

    TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

    Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Jeff on LinkedIn. Find out more about DUNN Capital Episode Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda 04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence 09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation 14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification 19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression 25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha 30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why...

    1h 14m
  6. SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

    DEC 6

    SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

    Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series 00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week 01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets 03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure 05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend? 06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to 08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap 11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances 12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain 13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and...

    1h 9m
  7. ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

    DEC 3

    ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

    Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Joe on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum” 00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners 01:50 - Joe’s path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author 05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime 10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects 13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance 16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge 20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from...

    1h 5m
  8. SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer

    NOV 29

    SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer

    In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball. ----- 50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE ----- Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Andrew on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday 01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/40 03:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios 05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs 08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future 09:22 - Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback 10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles 12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day” 16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really...

    1h 6m
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4.8
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About

Discover the fascinating world of investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and his remarkable co-hosts. Each week, we bring you compelling conversations with legendary investors, leading economists, masterful traders, and forward-thinking thought leaders. From Trend Following and Global Macro to Geo-Politics, Commodities, Quant Investing, Crypto, and Volatility, we uncover the strategies, stories, and lessons behind their success. Gain actionable insights from industry veterans as we celebrate their achievements and learn from their challenges. Stay ahead in the ever-evolving landscape of investing - tune in weekly and elevate your financial knowledge. For the latest episodes and expert insights, visit https://toptradersunplugged.com

Information

  • Creator
    Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
  • Years Active
    2014 - 2025
  • Episodes
    889
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2025 CMC AG - This content does not constitute financial advice and is for educational purposes only. The content can not be used for commercial use without written permission from CMC AG.
  • Show Website
    Top Traders Unplugged

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