300 episodes

Join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen as he explores the world of finance and investing, through weekly conversations with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders & thought leaders. Learn from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. We don't want you to think like them...but we do want to make you think! Stay up-to-date on https://toptradersunplugged.com

Top Traders Unplugged Niels Kaastrup-Larsen

    • Business
    • 4.8 • 362 Ratings

Join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen as he explores the world of finance and investing, through weekly conversations with the most interesting and experienced investors, economists, traders & thought leaders. Learn from their experiences, their successes, and their failures. We don't want you to think like them...but we do want to make you think! Stay up-to-date on https://toptradersunplugged.com

    SI161: Retaking the Turtle Trader Entrance Exam ft Jerry Parker

    SI161: Retaking the Turtle Trader Entrance Exam ft Jerry Parker

    Jerry Parker joins us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis’s famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers chosen today. We’ve posted the questions in the timestamps below, so feel free to take the test and compare your answers to Jerry’s.
    Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here).
    In this episode, we discuss:
    Favouring long or short positions
    How you can go broke taking small profits
    Reasons to ‘fade the fundamentals’
    The importance of down-time and vacations
    Whether we can rely on opinions of the crowd
    System diversification
    Why you should trade small
    The questions that Jerry would add to the Turtle Trader test today
    Avoiding trades due to gaps in price
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Jerry on https://twitter.com/RJParkerJr09 (Twitter).
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/ (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    02:10 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving your 5-star reviews in iTunes, and please share this podcast with a like-minded friend: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
    02:19 - I share a hugely important story to my family, as we mark the 10-year anniversary of my son's Sudden Cardiac Arrest and our https://kidsheart.org (KidsHeart) charity welcomes your support. For further information, contact us via: info@kidsheart.ch
    08:17 - Weekly review of returns
    12:00 - Jerry retakes the Original Entrance Exam for the Turtle Program:
    13:08 - Question 1: One should favour long or short positions. Is that true or false?
    14:56 - Question 2: One should know precisely when to liquidate if a profit occurs. True or false?
    14:56 - Question 3: One should trade the same number of contracts in all markets. True or false?
    16:08 - Question 4: If one has £100,000 to trade, one ought to risk £25,000 on every trade. True or false?
    16:26 - Question 5: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false?
    16:34 - Question 6: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false?
    17:02 - Question 7: It helps to have the fundamentals in your favour before you initiate. True or false?
    17:26 - Question 8: A gap up is a good place to initiate if an uptrend has started. True or false?
    17:52 - Question 9: If you anticipate buy stops in the market, wait until they are finished, and buy a little higher than that. True or false?
    19:29 - Question 10: Out of our 3 types of orders, market orders, stop orders, and resting, market orders cause the least skid. True or false?
    20:34 - Question 11: The more bullish news you hear, and the more people going long, the less likely an uptrend is to continue...

    • 1 hr 1 min
    SI160: Long-Term Performance vs Short-Term Hot Streaks ft Rob Carver

    SI160: Long-Term Performance vs Short-Term Hot Streaks ft Rob Carver

    Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules.
    In this episode, we discuss:
    Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recently
    How to gauge a system's long-term effectiveness
    Spread betting in the UK as an alternative to futures
    How to raise AUM when starting a new firm
    The US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin
    Adding parameters to a system
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Rob on https://twitter.com/InvestingIdiocy (Twitter).
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    01:11 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen) and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes
    03:03 - Macro recap from Niels
    05:43 - Weekly review of returns
    12:49 - How different types of CTAs have performed during the market moves of the last few weeks
    21:14 - How to decide whether a system is better or worse than another system
    26:11 - Q1; Matt: Has Rob ever considered using SpreadBetting to build a diversified portfolio instead of futures?
    34:24 - Q2; Joel: How much investor money would you need if you were to start a firm today, and where would you find these investors?
    38:23 - Thoughts on the US debt ceiling and the ‘platinum coin’ (check out this funny video by YouTube creator Remy)
    46:58 - Rob’s new system adjustment which places constraints on positions based on leverage
    55:56 - Some information on Rob Carver’s new book which is due to be released late 2022
    59:36 - Benchmark performance update

    • 1 hr 4 min
    SI159: Embracing Uncertainty for Outsized Returns ft Richard Brennan

    SI159: Embracing Uncertainty for Outsized Returns ft Richard Brennan

    Richard Brennan joins us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns.
    In this episode, we discuss:
    How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returns
    Compounding wealth as a systematic investor
    How Trend Following can profit during good times and bad times
    Data distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus on
    How investment terms can often create communication barriers
    Embracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Richard on https://twitter.com/@RichB118 (Twitter).
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 – Intro
    01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
    02:25 – Macro recap from Niels
    04:10 – Weekly review of performance
    11:35 – Knowing what to look for in a talented investment manager
    19:58 – Discussion on the topic of ‘skew’
    42:44 – How the term ‘skew’ relates to other terms such as ‘convexity’ and ‘kurtosis’ and which terms are the most important for investors to focus on
    56:33 – Some thoughts on what is referred to as ‘path dependency’
    01:01:03 – How Trend Following can positively influence an investment portfolio
    01:02:57 – Benchmark performance update

    • 1 hr 8 min
    SI158: The Secrets to Raising Capital ft Mark Rzepczynski

    SI158: The Secrets to Raising Capital ft Mark Rzepczynski

    Mark Rzepczynski joins us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player.
    You can find Mark’s latest writings https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com (here).
    In this episode, we discuss:
    How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone
    How to spot future star performers in advance
    Unconventional approaches to market correlations
    The importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clients
    Why investors tend to copy their peers
    Whether fund size matters to capital allocators
    How strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Mark on https://twitter.com/mrzepczynski (Twitter).
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 – Intro
    03:08 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen (https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen)
    04:28 – Macro recap from Niels
    06:15 – Weekly review of performance
    11:21 – Q1, Q2 and Q3; Brett: Do you group your futures contracts into ‘risk buckets’ (sectors/groups), and give a max exposure to each ‘risk bucket’? Do you apply ‘risk-to-stop’ measures on particular types of asset class or only on the whole portfolio? How do you avoid overweighting your system toward currencies, considering the fact there are so many currency pairs to trade?
    27:25 – Discussion on the key drivers for manager selection, inspired by a paper co-authored with Mark, which will be released soon
    57:02 – How important consultations are in the capital allocation process
    01:26:59 – Benchmark performance update

    • 1 hr 30 min
    SI157: How to Make Money & Survive in the Markets ft Jerry Parker

    SI157: How to Make Money & Survive in the Markets ft Jerry Parker

    Today we are joined by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber attacks, and why past correlations can’t always be relied upon.
    Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94nUnXsYpLY (here).
    In this episode, we discuss:
    The case for longer-term strategies
    Not over-optimising strategies to adapt to every market condition
    How adding Trend Following to a portfolio increases its robustness
    Why Trend Following firms will be the number one choice among investors in the future
    How to prevent cyber attacks
    Why you can't always rely on past correlations to continue
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Jerry on Twitter.
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    01:32 - A big thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes
    02:26 - Macro recap from Niels
    04:43 - Weekly review of returns
    15:55 - An insight into Jerry Parker’s approach to backtesting
    23:06 - Jerry Parker’s thoughts on the challenges of starting a CTA business today and how to overcome them
    32:35 - Thoughts on effective succession planning for CTAs, as well as some thoughts on staying safe from cyber attacks
    37:41 - Q1; Sebastien: How do you approach currency hedging?
    41:17 - How one simple rule can be more powerful than a group of complex rules
    44:48 - How shorter-term systems can be susceptible to noise
    47:54 - Why past correlations can’t always be relied upon
    49:32 - Discussion on a recent TransTrend article on how to respond to extreme volatility in the markets, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic
    56:34 - Jerry’s thoughts on system diversification
    01:01:59 - Benchmark performance update

    • 1 hr 5 min
    SI156: The Case for Buying at All-Time Highs ft Moritz Seibert

    SI156: The Case for Buying at All-Time Highs ft Moritz Seibert

    Moritz Seibert joins us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates.
    In this episode, we discuss:
    Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial
    Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable
    Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods
    Some good measures for monitoring risk
    Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing
    Suitable backtesting software for retail investors
    How to approach negative interest rates with your broker
    Follow Niels on https://twitter.com/toptraderslive (Twitter), https://www.linkedin.com/in/nielskaastruplarsen (LinkedIn), https://www.youtube.com/user/toptraderslive (YouTube) or via the https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/ (TTU website).
    Follow Moritz on https://twitter.com/moritzseibert (Twitter).
    IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written http://bit.ly/36bzny2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” http://www.toptradersunplugged.com/book%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Learn more about the Trend Barometer https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/resources/market-trends/%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (here).
    Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
    And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating and review on https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/top-traders-unplugged-niels/id888420325?mt=2%22%20%5Ct%20%22_blank (iTunes) so more people can discover the podcast.
    Episode TimeStamps:
    00:00 - Intro
    01:05 - A big thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes and Apple Podcasts
    03:21 - Macro recap from Niels
    05:38 - Weekly review of returns
    18:36 - What Moritz looks for when analysing his backtests
    26:42 - Q1 and Q2: Derek: What are the most important risk metrics you monitor? If you had to start your Trend Following business from scratch, what would you do differently and what would you keep the same?
    41:32 - Q3; Joe: Should I prioritise stocks that are working their way out of a correction over stocks making new all time highs?
    45:16 - Q4; James: Can you recommend a software with backtesting capabilities, suitable for retail investors?
    47:10 - Q5; Sebastien: How do you deal with negative interest rates from your broker?
    51:14 - Q6; Mikhail: Is it worth varying the lengths of time being backtested rather than just, for example, backtesting data over the last 50 years?
    57:39 - Thoughts on Germany’s upcoming election and its possible effects on the markets
    01:02:08 - Benchmark performance update

    • 1 hr 4 min

Customer Reviews

4.8 out of 5
362 Ratings

362 Ratings

DUShock ,

The Absolute Best Podcast in Systematic Trading

Niels and his partners Moritz, Jerry, and Rob bring more than a century of experience through booms, bubbles, busts, crashes, and creeping rallies. This podcast series in all of its iterations should appeal to all types of market participants; investors, traders, or the casual observer. This not your average trend following podcast! Thank you Niels, Moritz, Jerry, Rob, and podcast guests for giving so freely of your time to help make us better market participants!

Dhkenj ,

A great show…!0

A great show that is packed full of useful knowledge, market insights and smart advice. This is a show for professionals as well as novices who are interested in systematic trading. Don’t miss an episode!

ProbTrader ,

Notes on Top Traders Unplugged

I am remiss to have waited this long to give a review for this excellent show. It is by far my favorite of the several good podcasts now available. As it happens, my tool kit from a PhD in applied math make me very amenable to the space of medium-long trading that they have adopted. As you might expect, the words they sling around (such as back-testing) are very comfortable for me, since I have spent a lot of time in machine learning and model-based estimation. Having spent my life managing r

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