Kontrarian Korner

Ben Kelleran

Conversations on Investments, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Current Events https://www.kontrariankorner.com www.kontrariankorner.com

  1. Kontrarian Korner #85 - Giacomo Prandelli

    1D AGO

    Kontrarian Korner #85 - Giacomo Prandelli

    Yesterday I had Giacomo Prandelli on my podcast for the first time. He has an interesting vantage point as a commodities trader in Switzerland when it comes to geopolitics and commodities markets. We talked about the geopolitical chessboard and the tensions between the US, Europe, China, and Russia. We also got into the commodities complex and talked about where he sees opportunities and why it’s important to look at the global picture for each commodity. You can find him on Substack, Linkedin, and Twitter. Podcast Summary * The setup for the geopolitical chessboard, and the increasing tensions between the US, Europe, China, and Russia. * Why he doesn’t think Europe will prioritize the production capabilities for oil, gas, and other commodities, and the fragility of European supply chains. * Why copper and oil are top of mind for him right now. * How he occasionally expresses a view on a certain commodity with directional exposure. * Why it’s important to look at the global picture for the different commodities. * Why he pays attention to shipping, and why he thinks the rising rates in certain subsectors is more due to geopolitical factors than rising demand. * His view on the precious metals complex. * Opportunities in smaller commodities that are off the radar, including nickel and rare earths. * Book Recommendations: The Prince by Niccolo Machiavelli and The World For Sale by Javier Blas and Jack Farchy. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1h 6m
  2. Transocean Acquires Valaris

    2D AGO

    Transocean Acquires Valaris

    Yesterday I had Tommy Lee on the podcast to talk about Transocean’s $RIG acquisition of Valaris $VAL . For anyone interested in energy, Tommy is an expert on the deepwater subsector of offshore oil services, and we dove into the transaction, how it deleverages RIG’s balance sheet, and the potential synergies between the two fleets. We also talked about other subsectors of offshore oil services, but our conversation was a good look at the transaction and where the sector is headed over the next several years. You can find Tommy on Twitter, but he’s also working on a service over at Deepwater Insight that he is close to launching. He also has his Substack that is definitely worth a follow. The podcast will be for paid subscribers for now, but it will be available to everyone on Sunday morning. Podcast Summary * How this transaction deleverages the balance sheet for Transocean, and accelerates the potential for capital returns. * Why he doesn’t think the transaction will lead to problems with antitrust issues. * The synergies between the two fleets, and why the estimated cost savings might be a little high. * How the jackup fleet fits into the new company, and why they might look to sell some or all of the fleet in the future. * The view on day rates, new builds, future scrapping, and the potential for more consolidation in the future. * The jackup market and what it means for Borr, and some color on what is going on in Saudi Arabia and Mexico. * OSVs, Tidewater, and expectation for M&A in that sector. * Seismic, subsea equipment manufacturing, and other overlooked opportunities in and around the offshore oil services sector. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    54 min
  3. Kontrarian Korner #84 - Mark Mitchell

    JAN 22

    Kontrarian Korner #84 - Mark Mitchell

    Yesterday I had Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports on the podcast for the first time. He’s an independent pollster and a very entertaining follow on Twitter. We talked about his expectations for the midterm elections, geopolitics, and how the generational divide is going to be one of the most important topics for determining the future of the US over the next decade. If you’re not following his work, you should be, and you can also find him on YouTube. Podcast Summary * His thoughts on the midterms, why he thinks it will be ugly for the Republicans. * The Republicans as the party of beautiful losers. * The generational divide and the different perception of the economy, and how that will play a big role in politics over the next decade. * How the US is in a cold civil war right now, and the impact of gerrymandering on the upcoming elections. * America’s view on deportations and immigrations, why the Trump administration hasn’t done enough, and how they could use laws on the books to go after employers * Cultural enshittification, the offshoring and his experience in the tech industry with H-1B visas, and how H-1Bs are a logic trap. * How the feminization of our culture has impacted the US, and what it might take to return to a more concrete hierarchical culture. * The difference between doing things that look good and doing things that are right. * Why he thinks the US and the rest of the world is gearing up for war. * Why he thinks Vance is sitting in a good position for a Presidential run 2028. * Book Recommendation: Stolen Elections by Ralph Pezzullo Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1h 5m
  4. Kontrarian Korner #83 - E.M. Burlingame

    JAN 15

    Kontrarian Korner #83 - E.M. Burlingame

    Yesterday I had E.M. Burlingame on the podcast to talk about the fast start to 2026 as far as geopolitics and financial markets. We touched on everything from Venezuela, to the Middle East and China, as well as the current political situation in the US. We also got into some of the changes happening in financial markets, and what we could see long-term as far as a complete change in the financial system. You can find E.M.’s Substack below, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter. Podcast Summary * Recent events in Venezuela, what comes after Maduro, and how it impacts other parts of the world. * Why he thinks Cuba will change on its own, and the potential for the US to buy Greenland. * How certain factions think that Europe is planning for war against the US through Canada, and how Alberta and a potential secession factor in. * Why he’s keeping an eye on Iran and Israel and the Middle East, and the current state of Iran, and the ongoing regime change efforts. * Recent events in Ukraine, the use of another Oreshnik missile, and why a chain of geopolitical events can happen in bursts before pausing for a bit of a reset. * What to watch for at next week’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos. * The power struggle going on in China, and why they are likely to be the center of gravity in that region of the world moving forward. * China’s economic system of political capitalism and how the US used to have a similar system before 1971. * What the next year holds for the US, and why deportations are a twenty to thirty year problem. * The setup for the midterms this year, and the multiple dimensions of the current political situation. * Why it’s important to focus on the local level, and the importance of the next generation of young men. * The tremors that are becoming more obvious in the financial system, and why the City of London’s ability to price metals (not just gold and silver) is breaking. * Why all metals will probably continue to increase in price, and why he thinks they will try to prop up the broad equity market. * How stablecoins could be used to link the debt market to the rest of the economy. * Why we could see a return to the gold standard in a tokenized system, but why we are probably going to try a tokenized form of cryptocurrency first. * Book Recommendation: The Financialist Kill Chain by E.M. Burlingame. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1h 26m
  5. JAN 11

    Kontrarian Korner - A Deep Dive On First Tin

    On Friday, I had Sara (TripleS Special Situations) and Albert Collette on the podcast to discuss the tin market, why it presents an interesting opportunity, and why First Tin is an attractive way to play that opportunity for investors. Sara has experience in the commodities space as an operator and investor in opportunities that are off the beaten path, and Albert is a former board member of the company. Both of them own a decent sized stake in the company, and they lay out a compelling case for the potential upside over the next couple years for the company. If they can get permitting and financing for the Taronga asset, today’s share price is going to look like a bargain. Podcast Summary * A brief history of the tin market, how it was regulated by the International Tin Council, and how today’s setup was decades in the making. * The supply and demand outlook for tin, and why it points to higher prices for the metal moving forward. * Several of the uses for tin, and how there is a structural tailwind for tin demand moving forward. * A high level overview of First Tin and their assets. * Metals X as a large shareholder of First Tin, along with the video Sara mentioned below. * The Taronga asset, what the open pit will look like, and the potential to expand the resource significantly. * The dilution that has happened over the last couple years, and why they both think that the worst of the dilution is behind us. * The expected timeline for the permitting process (first half of 2026 is their expectation), and how EXIM financing will likely follow after that. * Why Metals X could look to acquire First Tin in that window between permitting and financing. * The European assets of the company, and some background on the tin and other critical minerals at Tellerhäuser in Germany. * How Tellerhäuser was discovered during Soviet occupation, and the historical drill results they have from that era, which would have been hundreds of millions in today’s money. * The resource nationalism when it comes to the supply chains for different commodities. * The potential upside for investors if First Tin can advance the Taronga project through permitting and financing. Disclaimer I own shares of First Tin (1SN on the London Stock Exchange). You should do your own research before making any investment decisions. Different investment strategies have different risk/return profiles which should be considered before making any decisions. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1h 7m
  6. Kontrarian Korner #82 - Vince Lanci

    12/16/2025

    Kontrarian Korner #82 - Vince Lanci

    Yesterday I had Vince Lanci back on the podcast to discuss everything going on precious metals and his outlook for the sector in 2026. We talked about the recent move in silver, some of the current events, and why he’s still bullish. We also talked about gold leading the whole commodities complex, platinum flying under the radar, but breaking out to its highest level since 2011, and everything else that he is watching as 2025 draws to a close. You can find Vince’s Substack below, but he’s also worth a follow on Twitter. Podcast Summary * The physical shortage of silver in London, how they are caught in a rolling squeeze, and the backwardated market for physical silver. * Silver as a critical mineral, China restricting silver exports, and other shifts in the supply chain for silver. * Other recent events with silver, including the Black Friday blackout and margin raises. * Why he is sustainably bullish on silver for the next several years, his expectations for triple digit silver in that timeframe, and how silver becomes more precious as gold goes higher in price. * How the physical market for silver is starting to assert dominance over the paper market. * The tug of war between silver as an industrial metal vs. precious metal, and the tug of war between industrial demand for silver and investment demand. * Increased investment demand for gold and silver miners over the next 12 months, and why we could see the miners catch up when gold and silver prices consolidate. * The valuation gap between streamers and royalty plays in precious metals vs. the miners. * Why he wants to look at gold miners that are looking to add copper exposure. * His outlook for gold in 2026, why we could see a 10-20% selloff, and why he expects gold to continue to drag the commodities complex higher. * Platinum and palladium as a pair, why platinum still flying under the radar, and how platinum could be ripe for a short squeeze and/or a sustained rally. * Why silver and other commodities are going to go up relative to gold, and why commodities are going to trade at their fundamental natural ratios relative to gold in coming years. * How he looks at ratio charts of different assets, comparing the S&P to gold, silver, and miners. * Gold vs. silver vs. copper, and other ratios he looks at as a signpost to compare where different assets are, and how they can signal a regime change. * The high level view on copper, and why he sees a potential catalyst for a spike in the copper price. * Why oil is going to be the last part of the commodities complex to wake up, and why he’s paying attention to vertically integrated oil producers looking ahead to 2026. * The Fed becoming an arm of the Treasury. * Other things that he’s paying attention to for 2026, including inflation, rates, yield curve control and QE, as well as other asset classes. * Book Recommendations: Absolute Batman & The Tower Of Basel by Adam LeBor. Kontrarian Korner is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.kontrariankorner.com/subscribe

    1h 12m
4.4
out of 5
16 Ratings

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Conversations on Investments, Finance, Macroeconomics, and Current Events https://www.kontrariankorner.com www.kontrariankorner.com

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