Smart Investing with Brent & Chase Wilsey

Brent & Chase Wilsey
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Smart Investing is the radio show where Brent and Chase try to make investing easier to understand. They demonstrate long-term investment strategies to help you find good value investments.

  1. 5D AGO

    May 8th, 2026 | Bitcoin had a nice April, will it continue? Will Gas Prices Come Back Down? April Jobs Report Changes Everything, When Permanent Life Insurance Isn’t Permanent & More

    Bitcoin had a nice April, will it continue The cryptocurrency gained 12.7% last month, marking its best performance since April 2025. Interestingly, according to CryptoQuant, the 30-day change in outright Bitcoin purchases remained negative throughout April. That suggests the rally wasn’t driven by strong spot demand.   Instead, much of the momentum came from something called perpetual futures. Until recently, I wasn’t very familiar with this product, but at its core, it’s another tool that increases risk. Unlike traditional options, these derivative contracts have no expiration date and are designed to let traders speculate on the price movements of an underlying asset. Perpetual futures have grown rapidly in popularity within the crypto space, largely because they allow for significantly higher leverage—sometimes as much as 100x. That kind of leverage can amplify gains, but it also increases the risk of sharp reversals.   Historically, when there’s a divergence between the spot market and the futures market like this, price gains tend not to last once leveraged positions begin to unwind. Where crypto goes from here is anyone’s guess, but piling more leverage onto an already risky asset doesn’t seem like a good idea to me.   When Will We See Gas Prices Come Back Down? No one can predict exactly when gas prices will decline, but many are aware the current prices are being driven higher by the situation with Iran. At this point, the bombing appears to have ended, but much of the country remains heavily damaged. Estimates suggest it could cost Iran nearly $300 billion to rebuild what has been destroyed.   The situation has shifted to one in which Iran is slowly being weakened economically because little to no oil is being exported from the country, resulting in a major loss of revenue. Reports estimate these losses at roughly $200 million per day — approximately $6 billion per month or $12 billion over two months.   Inflation in Iran is currently estimated to be above 60% and continues to rise as economic conditions worsen. Based on these developments, I still believe we could begin to see oil prices decline sometime around the end of June. If that happens, prices may fall at a fairly rapid pace, and by the end of July consumers could see more normal prices at the gas pump.   Lower energy costs would likely help improve overall economic conditions, potentially putting the economy back on track and supporting GDP growth by the end of the year.   The April jobs report just threw cold water on the “imminent Fed cuts” narrative.   The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, well above expectations of 55,000, while unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Given little growth in the labor force, only modest job creation is needed to keep the rate steady. Wage growth also remained relatively firm at 3.6% on an annual basis. In short: the labor market is slowing from the breakneck pace of the post-COVID boom, but it is not breaking.   That matters because the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate: keep inflation under control & maintain maximum employment.   Right now, the jobs side of the equation is giving the Fed room to stay patient. A few months ago, markets were pricing in aggressive rate cuts based on fears that the labor market was deteriorating. This report makes that much harder to justify. Hiring remains positive & layoffs are still relatively contained. Sectors that were strong in the month were healthcare, up 37k jobs; transportation & warehousing, up 30k jobs; and retail trade was up 22k jobs. Areas of weakness were information, down 13k jobs; and federal government, down another 9k jobs.   The bigger issue for the Fed now is inflation. Energy prices remain elevated, tariffs are feeding through supply chains, and policymakers are increasingly worried that inflation could stay sticky longer than expected. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee acknowledged on Friday that inflation has been “going the wrong way lately.” As long as the labor market remains stable, it appears the Fed has little urgency to cut rates.   The key takeaway: This wasn’t a “Goldilocks” report for dovish investors hoping for rapid cuts. It was a reminder that the economy is still strong enough for the Fed to prioritize inflation over stimulus. And until unemployment starts rising meaningfully or inflation decelerates, the Fed may have a hard time justifying rate cuts.   Financial Planning: When Permanent Life Insurance isn’t Permanent Cash value life insurance policies should be reviewed regularly because the long-term performance of the policy often changes significantly over time. In many policies, the internal cost of insurance increases every year as the insured ages because the probability of death rises with age. In addition, policies also have other internal expenses such as administrative fees, rider costs, premium loads, and investment management expenses. While policies are commonly illustrated using attractive hypothetical growth rates, those returns can be misleading because they are shown before many of these internal deductions are applied. As the insured gets older and the insurance costs rise, the total internal charges can eventually exceed the policy’s earnings, causing the net growth rate of the cash value to become very low or even negative. When this happens, the policy may begin consuming its own cash value to stay in force. If the cash value becomes depleted, the policy can lapse unless substantially higher premiums are paid later in life. Reviewing these policies proactively is important so there is time to determine whether additional funding is needed, whether benefits should be adjusted, or whether surrendering the policy and accessing any remaining cash value may be the better option before the policy becomes unsustainable.   Companies Discussed: GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. (GEHC), JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU), The Clorox Company (CLX) & Corning Incorporated (GLW)

    56 min

  2. MAY 1

    May 1st, 2026 | Regulators Concerned About Private Credit, Prediction Markets in IRAs Soon? Costco vs Gas Rewards, Sports Team Bubble, IRMAA Costs & More

    More regulators are concerned about private credit  The bad news just keeps coming for the private credit industry. If you’re not sure what private credit is, it is mostly middle market business loans extended by asset managers. People often don’t realize that these asset managers don’t have the same strict supervision that banks have on their loans. Investors may be starting to realize the risk because in the first quarter of 2026, private credit investors requested $20 billion from some of the private credit funds. Unfortunately, they only got a little bit over 50% of what they requested or about $11 billion. This could lead to higher redemption requests above $20 billion in the second quarter as more investors become disenchanted with private loan funds. The Securities Exchange Commission over the past few months has opened several enforcement investigations of large private credit managers. The Treasury department is also requesting information from private fund managers and insurance firms to understand their businesses more. The Securities Exchange Commission is the primary regulator for the private credit industry, but the private funds don’t regularly disclose holdings and don’t reveal much about private credit on the forms that are used by the SEC. It is quite the dilemma for these private credit funds, and I do believe it will continue to get worse because I am confident that the SEC and the Treasury department will find areas that could really hurt the individual investor due to the lack of disclosures.    Could prediction markets be available in your IRA soon?   Bitwise, Roundhill, and GraniteShares have filed applications with the SEC to launch exchange-traded funds tied to event contracts. If approved, these products could potentially be held in self-directed IRAs. The initial proposals appear relatively narrow in scope, focusing on outcomes like which party wins the White House in 2028 and which party controls the House and Senate after this year’s midterm elections. While these types of products can sound appealing—and successful bets could generate strong returns—they also carry a clear risk: if you’re wrong, you lose your entire investment.  One of the main concerns is how complex and speculative these instruments are, especially in the context of retirement accounts. Event contracts are fundamentally different from traditional investments like stocks or bonds, and their all-or-nothing nature makes them more like betting rather than than long-term investing. Are we going to soon allow withdrawals from retirement assets in Vegas so people can blay blackjack? The odds may be better there than on some of these “event contracts.”  There are also broader legal and regulatory questions still being debated. Some states argue that certain event contracts—particularly those tied to sports outcomes—should be classified as sports gambling, which would place them under state jurisdiction rather than the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Tribal groups have also raised concerns, arguing that such products could infringe on their sovereign rights to regulate gambling on tribal lands.  At the moment, sports-related event contract ETFs are not part of these filings, but that could evolve depending on how the legal landscape develops. If courts ultimately allow these types of products and current applications move forward, it’s possible that similar filings tied to sports outcomes could follow.  Regardless of how regulation unfolds, it’s important to understand the nature of these products. While they may be packaged as ETFs, their structure and risk profile differ significantly from traditional investments. Anyone considering them should be clear on one point: this is not investing in the conventional sense—it’s a high-risk, all-or-nothing proposition that is really just gambling.    Who offers a better reward program? The big gas stations or Costco?  When I pull into a Shell gas station, I always see a pitch on the screen about getting up to $0.30 back per gallon. Other stations like Chevron run similar promos, which got me wondering: how many people actually sign up—and are these deals better than Costco’s credit card with 4% cashback on gas?  Right off the bat, gas station rewards programs feel overly complicated. Once you dig in, you’ll find caps, conditions, and purchase limits that make it tough to consistently get the maximum benefit. In the best-case scenario, you might get around $0.35 off per gallon. If gas is $6 per gallon, that works out to roughly a 5.8% discount. Not bad—but actually hitting that number regularly is another story.  Costco’s credit card, on the other hand, offers a straightforward 5% cashback at Costco gas stations and 4% cashback at other gas stations (up to $7,000 per year). At $6 per gallon, that’s about $0.24 back per gallon; at $5 per gallon, it’s $0.20. To hit the annual cap, you’d need to buy around 22.4 gallons per week at $6 per gallon, or about 26.9 gallons per week at $5.  If you’re filling up at a Costco station, the math can tilt even more in your favor. Gas there is often $0.10–$0.30 cheaper per gallon to begin with. Pair that with 5% cashback, and your effective savings climb even further: about $0.25 per gallon at $5 gas, or $0.30 at $6.  So, when you’re standing at the pump at Shell or Chevron and see an offer for a flashy rewards program, it’s worth pausing. The headline numbers can look appealing, but the real-world value often depends on how much you drive and how closely you follow the program’s rules. For many people, a simple, consistent cashback card—especially one tied to already lower fuel prices—may end up being the better, less stressful option.    Is there a bubble in sports teams?  We’ve spent plenty of time talking about stretched valuations in stocks, the frenzy in crypto, and the rise of prediction markets—but sports teams may deserve a spot in that conversation too. Valuations across major leagues are climbing at a remarkable pace.  The NFL is leading the charge, with the average team now valued at $7.65 billion, up from roughly $1 billion in 2010. NBA franchises tell a similar story: the average team is worth $5.52 billion, an 18% jump from just last year. Go back 15 years, and the average NBA team was valued around $369 million—an increase of 1,396%. By comparison, the S&P 500’s roughly 425% return over that same period looks modest.  Major League Baseball is seeing it too, with the San Diego Padres reportedly finalizing a record sale at $3.9 billion. As prices climb, fewer buyers can afford entry into the top leagues, pushing capital into smaller or emerging sports that may carry more risk.  Rick Horrow, CEO of Horrow Sports Ventures, highlighted this trend: “Major League Cricket was at $5 million. Now the value’s at $30 million and going higher. Major League Pickleball two years ago was at $5 million. Now the value is at $15 million or higher.”   Women’s sports are also experiencing rapid growth. The National Women’s Soccer League recently awarded an expansion franchise in Columbus, Ohio for $205 million—a $40 million increase over the fee paid by Arthur Blank (The Falcon’s owner) for Atlanta’s team in November. That deal itself was a sharp jump from the $110 million paid by Denver in January of last year. For perspective, expansion fees were around $2 million as recently as 2022.  The key question is whether these valuations are supported by underlying fundamentals. While interest is rising—about 1.2 million people watched the NWSL final, up 22% year over year—it still trails far behind the audiences of major leagues. Game 7 of the NBA Finals drew 16.4 million viewers, the World Series drew 25.9 million, and the Super Bowl surpassed 127 million.  Media rights are central to this dynamic. The NFL signed an 11-year, $111 billion deal in 2021 and is already eyeing further increases. The NBA followed with its own 11-year, $77 billion agreement starting in 2025. If these massive contracts continue to absorb the bulk of media spending, smaller leagues may struggle to sustain their current growth trajectories.  Most people will never be in a position to buy a sports franchise, but the broader trend is still worth watching and I believe is just yet another example of excessive valuations in today’s markets.     Financial Planning: Understanding the Relative Cost of IRMAA  IRMAA (Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount) is best understood not as a flat cost, but as an additional marginal tax rate layered on top of federal and state income taxes. When your income exceeds certain thresholds, your Medicare Part B and Part D premiums increase, and because the adjustment applies for the entire year once you cross the threshold, even by $1, it creates a “tax cliff.” For example, in 2026 the first IRMAA tier for married couples begins at $218,000 of income. At that point, Part B premiums increase from $202.90 to $284.10 and Part D increases $14.50, resulting in an additional annual cost of $2,296.80. Since this tier spans $56,000 of income (from $218,000 to $274,000), that cost translates to roughly a 4.1% marginal “tax” on income within that range, but only if you fully utilize the entire bracket. If you only exceed the threshold by a small amount, you still incur the full $2,296.80 cost, which means the effective marginal rate on those extra dollars can be extremely high. When layered on top of a 22% federal bracket and 9.3% California tax rate, the true marginal rate is about 35.4% if the bracket is filled, but can be significantly higher if it is not. This framing is critical when evaluating strategies like Roth conversions or large withdrawals, because it highlights that the

    56 min

  3. APR 24

    April 24th, 2026 | Should the Fed still use the PCE as its inflation guide? The consumer remains strong, New Apple CEO stock gains coming? Is Your Annuity Safe? & More

    Should the Fed still use the PCE as its inflation guide? I’ve talked a lot about the shelter index being misleading when it comes to inflation, especially when looking at the CPI, but the PCE has its flaws as well. The Federal Reserve has a 2% inflation target and uses monetary policy, which includes adjusting the Fed Funds rate, to tackle its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. A big problem I see with the PCE is that healthcare now accounts for roughly 16% to 17% of index. This comes as an aging population led healthcare spending to be the single largest contributor to consumer spending in 2025. It surpassed housing and utilities in early 2023 as the fastest growing category in the PCE and by Q3 of 2025, it contributed nearly a full percentage point to overall economic expansion and accounted for nearly half of all spending growth. While it’s important to keep an eye on healthcare inflation, the Fed’s tools won’t be able to have a major impact on the sector like let’s say the housing sector. So, let’s say inflation stays around 3%, but a large reason for that is healthcare inflation. If the Fed hikes rates, it will have little impact on inflation and in fact it could have a huge negative consequence on other areas of the economy and push us into a recession. A big reason I remain worried about healthcare inflation is labor costs. It doesn’t appear we have enough workers to meet the demand for these jobs. On the positive side, the sector has provided stability and growth when looking at payroll data. In 2025, it added 686,000 jobs, which was more than all the gains in nonfarm payrolls. The question is though, can this continue without substantial wage inflation considering by 2030, we will have more people over the age of 65 than we do that are under18. I’m not sure how exactly we can rein in healthcare inflation, but I don’t believe monetary policy would provide a meaningful solution.   Even with all the noise, the consumer remains strong March retail sales showed a nice increase of 4.0% compared to last year and while gas stations were a large contributor growing 18.1% due to higher gas prices, excluding them from the report still would have resulted in a good increase of 2.9%. The only areas that saw declines in the report were motor vehicle and parts dealers, which were down 2.1%, and furniture and home furnishing stores, which were down 0.8%. Areas of strength included nonstore retailers, which were up 10.1%, electronics and appliance stores, which were up 5.2%, and clothing and clothing accessories stories, which were up 7.2%. Food services and drinking places saw growth slow, but there was still a positive increase of 2.4%. It’s not just the retail sales report that showed strength, Bank of America pointed out debit and credit card spending climbed 4.3% in March, the most in more than three years. While a 16.5% jump in spending at gas stations was a large reason for the increase, there was still “healthy growth” of 3.6% excluding gas. We also heard from Wells Fargo CEO, Charlie Scharf, in an interview with Bloomberg Television and he said the U.S. economy remains “extremely strong” and that loan demand is solid, consumer delinquencies are well controlled, and businesses entered this period in strong financial shape. He also said consumer spending continues to grow between 5% and 7% year-over-year. Even with all the noise, the consumer is what drives the US economy, and it appears people remain resilient in their spending, which is a major reason why I believe the economy remains healthy.   Can the new Apple CEO keep the stock gains coming? With the stock trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of around 32 times, I’ve got to say it’s going to be a very difficult task. Keep in mind over the last 50 years the average forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 has been between around 15 to 19 times, nowhere near 32. I’m also reminded of a similar situation where a prominent company with such great stock success was taken over by a new CEO and the 16-year return was only 27% including dividends. That company I’m referring to is General Electric when Jack Welch retired and the new CEO Jeffrey Immelt who was handpicked by Jack Welch took over. Things could be different this time when the new CEO of Apple takes over on September 1st but again given the current valuation it will be difficult. John Ternus is a mechanical engineer and was head of the hardware division. An engineering degree now represents the highest percentage of degrees among Fortune 500 CEOs, exceeding the number of CEOs with an MBA. I do have some question marks around the choice though as there have not been that many new successful products that have come out of Apple. We’ve had the AirPods and the Apple Watch, but they’ve had some major failures with the Vision Pro headset and are trying to build a self-driving car that they lost billions of dollars on. Mr. Ternus, who is 50 years old, is well liked and is said to have a friendly demeanor along with the engineering confidence, but will he have the magic that Tim Cook had finding ways to squeeze more value out of supply chain? Mr. Cook was also a great political negotiator working with President Barack Obama to President Trump and even made deals with China’s president that has kept the company going. Mr. Ternus does have has some big shoes to fill and a large mountain to climb. I just don’t believe Apple will see returns anywhere near the past returns they saw under Cook when he took over in 2011 and the stock grew by roughly 20 times.   Your annuity may not be as safe as you think! Many people that are sold annuities are told by the broker that they are 100% safe and to be frank they would probably say almost anything to collect their big 7% or 8% commission. But the Treasury department has concerns and is talking to state insurance regulators about the large amount of private loans that insurance companies are using in their portfolios. Back in 2024 even the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, which is also known as the NAIC and is the organizing body for regulators for every state in the US, had stated ratings that insurers had on private credit and investments were consistently overinflated. They have since pulled the report from the website. Large redemption requests from individual investors that want to pull their money out of many private loan funds are starting to show up in other areas like pension funds and insurance companies. The insurance industry holds about $6 trillion in invested assets and roughly $1 trillion or about 17% is now in private credit investments. The insurance industry uses what is known as private letter ratings and can also assign a risk score to the investment. In a study that examined 109 private letter ratings that NAIC officials received in 2023, in 106 of those cases the private rating was higher than the NAIC. To make matters worse, 17 of the cases gave an investment grade private letter rating to assets that the NAIC considered junk or below investment grade. It is especially important to look out for the smaller firms that use smaller rating agencies like Eagan – Jones as opposed to your bigger rating agencies. The smaller firms tend to rate things much higher than the NAIC, sometimes as much as three notches higher, which really disguises the risk of what the annuity you hold is invested in. I’ve said for years that we will someday see an insurance company file for bankruptcy and those investors who invested blindly into annuities because of a salesperson’s recommendation will probably be disappointed to see that they lost all their earnings and perhaps even some of the principal. I unfortunately think it’s too late for some of these insurance companies that have invested into risky assets to turn the situation around quickly.    Financial Planning: Traditional or Roth Choosing between traditional and Roth contributions comes down to one key question: will you be able to withdraw or convert that money at a lower tax rate than your rate today? Traditional contributions work best if the answer is yes, since you get a tax break now and pay less later, while Roth contributions are better if your future tax rate will be the same or higher. Many people enter a lower tax bracket starting at retirement and lasting until required minimum distributions (RMDs) begin at age 75, but this low-tax window is limited. There’s only so much pre-tax money you can withdraw or convert each year before moving into a higher bracket. For example, while working someone may be in the 22% bracket and will drop to the 12% bracket in retirement, giving them some room to access that tax-deferred money at a lower rate. However, the threshold between the 12% and 22% brackets is about $100k of taxable income for joint filers, and other income sources like Social Security and pensions will take up some of that room. If those sources result in taxable income of $50k, then only another $50k can be withdrawn or converted from retirement accounts before being pushed from the 12% bracket back up to the 22% bracket.  If there is $1 million in pre-tax retirement accounts growing at 10%/year, that annual appreciation of $100k is much more than can be converted meaning the account balances would continue to grow. When RMDs begin, the taxable distributions would push income into the 22% bracket or higher and potentially trigger IRMAA. Situations like this are common when retirement account balances are large, and Roth contributions should be heavily considered while working unless the taxpayer is in the highest brackets (32% or above).   Companies Discussed: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) & Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)

    56 min

  4. APR 17

    April 17th, 2026 | Watching Sports Has Become a Nightmare, Mentioning AI to Increase Stock Prices, Meta Becoming the Digital Ad King, Beware of Income Taxes When Gifting & More

    Has watching your favorite sports become a nightmare? It used to be easy to watch a football game as you generally had maybe two different networks it would be on and it was easy to find. Well, now the promise of streaming, reducing costs and making it easier for people to watch the shows and sports they want when they want has really missed the mark. The list can go on and on of where to watch the football game or sports you want to watch. Maybe the game will be on ESPN, Paramount+, TNT, NBC’s Peacock, CBS or maybe you’ll have to go to Amazon prime or the YouTube channel. It can be very frustrating trying to find the game you want and then you find out you don’t have the right subscription, and you have to pay extra to sign up for it. Well, maybe the justice department is coming to your rescue. Last week it was reported that the justice department is investigating whether the NFL is engaging in anti-competitive tactics that harm consumers. The investigation involves whether having many outlets for sports viewing is costing consumers far more and the NFL is taking advantage of its behemoth size and demand. There is no doubt that sports are getting out of control and just recently the NBA signed a record payday for their media rights. This has opened the door for many other sports, including the NFL, which apparently because of the change in ownership of CBS they may have to negotiate a new contract with the NFL. No doubt in my mind it will be a far higher contract than before. I’m not sure when the last straw will break the camel’s back, but it seems to be getting close as advertisers are starting to back away from the large amount that networks are asking for advertising during the games. It is possible that sports could eventually go to a cost per game because even subscription rates are getting so high that people are not keeping them long-term.   To increase your stock price, just mention AI I’m of course being facetious, but in many cases, it appears that way. This past week, Allbirds, which was a popular shoe company just a few years ago, announced it was pivoting from shoes to artificial intelligence and the stock at one point spiked by more than 700%. A large reason for the craziness is the market cap of the company was tiny at just about $21 million as of Tuesday’s close. When companies are this small there is more room for manipulation and wild swings as fewer capital inflows are needed to drive the stock higher. What is even crazier about this stock is that just a few years ago it was a hot company valued above $4 billion and that was because of excitement around its shoes. The company introduced its debut shoe in 2016 and went public in 2021. As I said they are now making the switch to AI as they closed all their U.S. full-priced stores in February and will be focusing on AI compute infrastructure. Allbirds will be called NewBird AI and in a recent statement they said, “The Company will initially seek to acquire high-performance, low-latency AI compute hardware and provide access under long-term lease arrangements, meeting customer demand that spot markets and hyperscalers are unable to reliably service.” This is just crazy to me, and you must ask what qualifications this company has to make such a drastic shift. I know I will not be investing in this stock!   It looks like Meta will become the digital ad king Meta has been very patient growing its ad sales by establishing substantial user habits with their products like Reels, the microblogging site Threads, and even WhatsApp. All have been very slow to introduce advertisements to their users, but that patience has paid off as worldwide ad growth for Meta increased around 22.1% in 2025 and it’s estimated it will increase another 24.1% in 2026. Because of how large Meta is, it was expected that growth would slow, but that has not happened. Their growth is far higher than Google’s growth, which is projected to be around 11.9%, about the same as last year. The ad revenue numbers are staggering with Meta expected to reach $243.46 billion, about $4 billion more than Google’s $239.54 billion. That growth has not been cheap for Meta as the company uses AI to enhance performance and capital spending is now estimated to be around $135 billion this year. I was also surprised to learn that Google’s share of the US search ad market is expected to only be 48.5%. This would be the first time it’s fallen below 50% in over a decade. There is so much competition out there from AI companies, like OpenAI, and other social media companies, like TikTok, that the ad market is continually changing. When companies compete, consumers generally win, but I’m not sure about investors as the cost of spending on technology has become a very heavy weight for many of these big tech companies.    Financial Planning: Beware of Income Taxes when Gifting When parents give assets to their children, the income tax impact depends on what’s being gifted. Cash is usually the easiest and most tax-friendly option because there’s no built-in gain. There is no direct income tax to the giver or receiver, but if parents gift things like appreciated stock or real estate, the child receives the original cost basis as well. This means they will owe capital gains tax on all the appreciation when they sell it. In contrast, if the child inherits those same assets after the parents pass away, the basis typically steps up to current market value, wiping out that taxable gain. Because of this, it’s often smarter to gift cash or assets with little appreciation and hold onto highly appreciated assets to pass on at death.   Companies Discussed: Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), HP Inc. (HPQ) & Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)

    56 min

  5. APR 10

    April 10th, 2026 | Smart Glasses vs Smartphones, Too Late to Buy the Dip, Inflation Spike from Iran War, Backdoor Roth IRA Rules & More

    Could smart glasses replace the smart phone as the number one consumer device? If you’re like me, you probably remember the failure of Google Glass, which ended in 2015. Google may have exited the space early considering in 2025 global shipments of smart glasses hit 8.7 million units, which quadrupled 2024’s level. Meta currently holds 85% of the market but realize that Apple, Alphabet/ Google, and Samsung are expected to launch AI equipped eyewear soon. I do wonder if this will hurt or help Apple since people may be buying more smart glasses and less high-end iPhones? There are concerns about privacy and data collection. Currently Meta is facing a lawsuit in the US that is seeking class action status. Seems like Meta can’t get out of the news or the courtroom, but they do state that what the glasses collect stays on the user’s device unless they choose to share it with the company. The smart glasses can see what you see and hear what you hear. You can have a conversation with the glasses the same as if you’re talking to a person. Which means you may look like a crazy person standing there talking to yourself if people don’t realize you have smart glasses on. Companies that would benefit from an increase in manufacturing of smart glasses, excluding the big companies I already mentioned, would include companies such as EssilorLuxottica, which is the owner of Ray-Ban and Meta’s manufacturing partner, Qualcomm, which provides the central processor or the brains of the glasses, and Global Foundries. which takes care of the display technology. It appears this time; smart glasses may become as common as a smart phone in the next few years.   Is the market too expensive to buy the dip this time? With the increasing cost of oil and the turmoil in Iran the markets did see a correction, which is a drop of 10% or more from the peak. People have become so accustomed to just buying the dips without knowing the valuations of what they’re buying, and many will probably do the same thing this time. Unfortunately, dip buying does not always work and given the current valuations, investors could be in for a bad surprise. Even with the recent pull back, the forward price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 sits at 20 and is still 20% higher than the 20-year average. So even with the dip you’re not buying companies on sale at these levels. Earnings can be adjusted and moved around with accounting rules, which means you’re probably paying more than you believe if you don’t understand accounting. Another indicator to look at is the forward price to free cash flow. This indicator takes out all the accounting craziness of how much some tech companies are spending on capital expenditures for artificial intelligence. Often, I find these two measures converge once the accounting catches up to the heavy capex spending and understanding both earnings and free cash flow is an important balance. The index currently has a forward price to free cash flow of 27.4 and that is nearly 40% above the 20-year average. Smart investors really should stop and think. They should realize they’re paying a lot more for the S&P 500 than they thought. Free cash flow is not an accounting measure, and companies are not required to compute it for you. It’s not that hard to calculate though as you start with cash from operations and then deduct all the capital expenditures. This is where the devil is in the details because this is where you will see how overvalued many tech companies are because of the billions of dollars they’re spending. The big risk here is the return on investment will likely not come very quickly and maybe not at all. This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t invest in stocks as you can still find good quality equities that are generating very good cash flow and that you’re not overpaying for the earnings or the free cash flow. Personally, those are the types of businesses I’m looking for when investing for myself and my clients.   Consumer prices spike in March due to Iran war While it was in line with expectations, the headline CPI rose 3.3% compared to last year. This was the highest annual rate since April 2024, and it was substantially higher than February’s reading of 2.4%. The obvious reason for the increase was the change in oil prices. Energy showed an increase of 12.5%, largely due to a spike of 18.9% in gasoline prices. Month over month gasoline prices climbed 21.2%, which was the largest monthly increase since 1967 when the series was first published. Outside of the energy spike, prices did not look problematic considering core CPI, which excludes food and energy, saw an increase of 2.6% on an annual basis. This was relatively in line with recent months and was 0.1% below the forecast. While the Fed may be able to look through these inflation numbers, if energy remains elevated the concern is it will start to impact core CPI as well. Companies will need to start raising prices to offset their higher expenses due to energy costs. For example, airline fares, which rose 14.9% over the past 12 months would see further pressure. Deutsche Bank estimates that if jet fuel prices stay near current levels for a full year, airlines would have to increase ticket prices by about 17% to offset those cost pressures. Transportation would also be problematic with companies like Amazon, UPS, and FedEx needing to pay more to move goods around the economy. We have already seen the introduction of fuel and logistics surcharges and those will likely climb further if problems persist. On a positive note, the shelter index rose just 3.0% on an annual basis, which was tied for its lowest level since August 2021. As I have mentioned before, I anticipate shelter inflation will continue to decline as the year progresses. Overall, the main takeaway is if this Iran war can be contained and energy prices start to decline, which I think they will, inflation should not be a problem in 2026.     Financial Planning: Reporting a Backdoor Roth IRA Normally when income is above $236k for joint filers or $150k for single filers, the ability to make Roth IRA contributions is phased out.  A backdoor Roth IRA is a strategy that allows high-income taxpayers to fund Roth IRAs, but it needs to be done correctly.  It is a two-step process that involves making a traditional IRA contribution and then converting that contribution into a Roth IRA.  This can only be done if the account holder does not have any other pre-tax IRAs.  When the initial contribution is made to the traditional IRA, it needs to be reported as a non-deductible contribution.  When the funds are converted, a 1099-r is generated, and as long as the initial contribution was reported correctly, the conversion is not taxable.  The end result is a Roth IRA that can grow tax-free.  While this can be a benefit, it is crucial that everything is reported correctly to prevent filing errors, overcontributions, and amended tax returns.   Companies Discussed: ServiceNow, Inc. (NOW), NIKE, Inc. (NKE), RH (RH) & Invesco Ltd. (IVZ)

    56 min

  6. APR 3

    April 3rd, 2026 | Oil Prices, SpaceX IPO, Jobs Report: What It Means for the Economy, 2026 Tax Payments & More

    How much could inflation increase because of surging oil prices? It is hard to know exactly how much the increase will be, but we do know it will be increasing because since the Iran war started February 28th, a barrel of oil has increased from around $70 a barrel to around $100 a barrel depending on the day. Economists estimate that the March CPI inflation number could be around 3.4% and may hit 4% in April. If the conflict continues through summer and into the fall, we could see inflation hit 5%. While this is a possibility, fortunately, it does not appear that will happen. One would have to go back 20 years to see this type of rapid increase in gas prices. The Fed has been trying for five years to get inflation down to 2% with no success, and it does not appear that it will happen this year, which means interest rate rates will probably remain around the current level for the remainder of this year. This will be tough on the economy because mortgage rates won’t be coming down as we expected, and people may not be doing that remodel on their home because home equity lines will still be high. Some may just say I want to get this done and just go ahead and accept the higher interest rate, but I believe most will choose to continue deferring the project. The good news is, I don’t believe this will last much past May or June because the President knows this would be very tough on the economy and the midterm elections are approaching quickly. So, currently we’re still saying this is a short-term problem and any pullback in good quality businesses that don’t have high valuations is a good buying opportunity.   You may finally be able to invest in SpaceX! Bloomberg and CNBC’s David Faber reported that SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission, also known as the SEC. It’s estimated the company could see a listing around June and that it is seeking a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which would lead to a record public offering. Don’t forget that SpaceX merged with Musk’s X AI, which also owns X and used to be Twitter, back in February. At that time the combined entity was valued at $1.25 trillion. Following a SpaceX IPO, Musk will become the first person to sit atop two separate trillion-dollar public companies. This IPO would also likely help increase Musk’s net worth, which is estimated to be close to $840 billion. Most of Musk’s net worth comes from his estimated 43%stake in SpaceX and 13% ownership of Tesla. I would have to assume this IPO would be well received given all the excitement around space, AI, and Elon Musk. This company is not just built around hype given its contracts with NASA, the Air Force, and Space Force. It also conducted 165 orbital flights over the course of 2025 and operates the Starlink satellite internet service, which runs on a constellation of around 10,000 satellites in lower-earth orbit. With that said, my guess is the stock would push higher in the public markets to lofty levels that would make it dangerous as a long-term investment. There’s also speculation that we could see IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI this year. I do believe these mega IPOs could cause problems for stocks like Tesla, Nvidia, and Microsoft as there is only so much available capital and investors may sell those positions to a get a piece of these new exciting stocks. This should be an exciting year for the IPO market.    Maybe the labor market isn’t as bad as people think Coming off a weak February report where payrolls declined by 133k, March showed a nice increase of 178k jobs. Part of the volatility was due to a strike at Kaiser that led to job losses in February, but then a surge of 76k jobs in the health care space in March. Health care continues to be the driving force for the labor market, but construction was strong in the month as the sector added 26k jobs and transportation and warehousing saw a nice increase of 21k jobs. The government sector continues to weigh negatively on the headline number as federal government employment declined by 18k jobs in March. Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down 11.8% or 355k jobs. Financial activities also saw a decline of 15k jobs in the month and the other major sectors like manufacturing, information, and leisure and hospitality saw little change in the month. While I wouldn’t say the labor market is booming, considering the unemployment rate is sitting at 4.3%, which was down from 4.4% last month, I’d say maintaining the labor market at these levels would be extremely healthy for our economy. I remain optimistic that both the labor market and economy will remain in a good spot for the rest of 2026.   Financial Planning: Setting Up 2026 Tax Payments With Tax Day approaching, it’s important to think not just about your 2025 tax return, but also about planning for 2026. In the U.S., taxes must be paid throughout the year either through withholding or quarterly estimated payments, and while your 2025 balance is due April 15, the first estimated tax payment for 2026 is also due on that same day. This matters especially for income like interest, dividends, capital gains, business income, and rental income, which typically don’t have automatic withholding and therefore require estimated payments. If you don’t pay enough during the year, the IRS will charge both interest and underpayment penalties on the shortfall. To avoid interest and penalties, you generally need to pay at least 90% of your current-year tax, 100% of last year’s tax, or 110% of last year’s tax if your AGI is over $150,000.  Since projecting the current year tax can be unreliable when income is variable, a simple way to stay on track is to use last year’s tax as a baseline since it’s known and easy, and if you fall behind, you can catch up by increasing withholdings from wages, pensions, or retirement withdrawals since withholdings are treated as if they were made evenly throughout the year, regardless of timing.    Companies Discussed: Snowflake Inc. (SNOW), Snap Inc. (SNAP), Alcoa Corporation (AA) & Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX)

    56 min

  7. MAR 27

    March 27th, 2026 | Stagflation and Bank Stocks, Meta and YouTube Court Ruling, Higher Gas Prices and Auto Sales, Crypto and the U.S. Banking System & More

    Is the concern of stagflation putting downward pressure on bank stocks? The term stagflation was first used in 1965 by a British politician. A quick definition for an economy with stagflation is when there is slow economic growth, high unemployment, and high inflation. A scenario like that would put a strain on banks because as people lose their jobs one of the first things they stop paying on are consumer loans like credit cards and personal loans. Banks can also get squeezed because they may have locked in long-term loans at lower rates and because of high inflation, the Federal Reserve could increase short-term interest rates, which would compress margins. The banks also need meet certain liquidity requirements, which could hurt margins even more. On the bright side, this could be a buying opportunity to invest in banks since they are down roughly 9 to 10% since the beginning of the year. The reason I think this could be a good opportunity is manyfold. First off, the high oil prices that are currently causing inflation concerns appear to be a short-term problem and I believe they should start reversing by May or June. Second, employers have slowed down on hiring new people but are reluctant to let employees go because it’s very costly to hire new employees. Third, the economy appears to still be doing well and consumers have already started receiving part of the $50-$60 billion in tax refunds from the Big Beautiful Bill, which should help with consumer spending. This is also the year where agreements from other countries to invest trillions of dollars into our economy should start taking place. In regard to the banks themselves, they’re sitting in a pretty good situation with diversified businesses as your mega banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America have trading houses and global markets that are growing in the low double digits. Some banks expect mid-teens growth in the trading business. Some of the bankers have also said that demand for traditional commercial loans has been improving so far this year. In its most recent data, the Federal Reserve showed commercial industrial loans were up 5% year over a year, which is the largest increase since 2023. As always with investing, you should be looking out at least 2 to 3 years. One other perk is many banks pay a decent dividend around 2% to 2.5%    Meta and YouTube get screwed in court I was very disappointed to see that a 20-year-old woman, who won in a California court, is set to receive a total of $6 million from Meta and YouTube. Her claim was she was addicted to social media, and it dominated her life for years, which caused mental health issues like anxiety and depression. I’m really getting tired of the legal system in California and the theatrics played by attorneys such as her attorney having a jar of 415 M&M’s saying each M&M represented $1 billion of the near $400 billion in total stockholder equity when looking at Alphabets value. He began to remove one M&M at a time and demonstrated how taking out a few M&Ms did not change the weight of the jar. My feeling is this attorney should go to Hollywood and try to get an acting job. It is disappointing to see how no one wants to take accountability for their actions any longer. They want to blame somebody else and not take responsibility for the fact that she uploaded more than 200 YouTube videos before the age of 10 and had 15 Instagram accounts before she was 15. I do have to ask where were the parents? This could just be the beginning as there are 3000 other similar lawsuits against social media companies that are pending in California courts. I do believe there should be some changes made to the regulatory framework around social media, but this goes too far and is just in my opinion greed from attorneys and people trying to get a free ride. I was glad to see that both companies are appealing the decision, and this will likely continue to move up the court system and may land in the Supreme Court. Meta also lost a case in New Mexico this past week as jurors found that Meta willfully violated the state’s unfair practices. The state’s Attorney General claimed the company failed to properly safeguard its apps from online predators targeting children. It is disappointing to see the number of lawsuits that are going on in our country. Our country was not built on attorneys and lawsuits; it was built on people working hard and taking responsibility for their own actions. I do fear for my grandkids if we continue on this path and wonder what our country will look like in 30 or 40 years. When it comes to investing, I would be very careful in this space, as these cases could set a dangerous precedent for trials to come. There is also a federal trial set to begin this summer in the Northern District of California involving claims by school districts and parents nationwide that apps from Meta, YouTube, TikTok and Snap helped foster detrimental mental health-related harms to young users.   Will higher gas prices hurt strong US car sales? Current US car sales are around 16 million on an annual basis, which is down from 2019 when they were 17 million, but overall, they are still very healthy. The car business has changed from low margin vehicles to more luxury vehicles with higher profit margins and the average price on a new car is now over $50,000. The car buyers themselves have changed with the average new vehicle buyer around 50 years old. This is seven years older than in the year 2000. It’s no surprise, but because of the higher prices for cars, people earning over $150,000 a year account for 42% of the sales. Six years ago, it was just 29%. It was also reported that buyers who have incomes of $75,000 or less are no longer buying new cars because of the affordability. The higher gas prices do not seem to be affecting car sales at this point and according to the manufacturers, they are still saying the buyers remain resilient. However, if gas and oil prices remain at current levels that would then likely put a strain on car sales. Fortunately, at this time, based on many factors, I think by May or June we will start to see the easing of prices at the pump. Also helping US manufacturers is the deductible interest on cars made in the US. There are restrictions on this, but that does also help ease the pain with a little tax deduction. Also, since the President ended the tax credits for electric vehicles, US car manufacturers were able to scrap the losing endeavor of trying to build profitable EVs. With the stock prices for car manufacturers down around 9 to 10%, I believe the investment clouds should be clearing in the next couple of months and investors may have an opportunity to invest in a good US car manufacturer. It’s important to remember that if you step in and buy here, you own a small piece of a large company and don’t worry about the day to day volatility, you should be focusing on where that business will be at least 2-3 years down the road.   Should crypto companies be allowed into the United States banking system? Unfortunately, Jonathan Gould, who is Comptroller of the Currency and is one of the country’s most powerful bank regulators, believes so. He thinks it’s a good idea to let firms like Ripple, Crypto.com and others in this area to become a trust bank. A trust bank is a little bit different than a normal bank because they don’t take deposits or make loans and instead offer other services like safekeeping of various assets. An example of trust banks would be insurance companies and payroll processors. My concern is what the average consumer may think as they could believe that because it’s a trust bank it is automatically insured by the federal government. This is a gray area as some trust banks can have insurance from the federal government, but they do not insure investments like stocks bonds, and cryptocurrencies. The Bank Policy Institute and other banks are against this because it is unclear what these crypto companies would do with bank charters. There is talk that some applicants may want access to the Federal Reserve payment rails, which would allow them to move money between digital currencies and the banking system. My concern is this could jeopardize the strength of our banking system and cause our federal government to be on the hook for some big financial liability in the years to come as some cryptocurrency drops dramatically or fails.   Companies Discussed: DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS), Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG) & CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

    56 min

  8. MAR 20

    March 20th, 2026 | Bank Stocks Hit by Private Credit, Youth Sports Boom, Aluminum Prices Surge Beyond Oil, U.S. Oil Inventories Rise, Create a Tax-Free Account for a Child & More

    Bank stocks feel the pain from private credit You may have noticed that the bank stock index is down about 10%, which is more than the S&P 500’s decline of 3% at the beginning of the year. It is estimated that banks made roughly 10% of their total loans to non-depository financial institutions known as NDFIs, which includes private credit companies. It’s also estimated that these types of loans in the past three years have grown from $1.1 trillion to $1.9 trillion. The banking stocks may struggle for a few more months, but the good news is a recent study from the Office of Financial Research found that private funds and BDCs, which are Business Development Corporations, use lines of credit and currently they’ve only used about 50 to 65% of the buying capacity. The tough decision for the banks is do they cut off the line of credit now or do they take on more risk and let those lines of credit increase to 70 or 80%? I feel I hope they stop it now because the risk I think is too great going forward on these private loans. We do hold two banks in our portfolio, which means we may see little to no gain in those stocks in 2026 due to the concerns around private lending. However, we do invest in companies for the long term and understand that difficulties can arise and cause a down year for any company. Long-term I don’t believe this will have a major impact on the financial situation for most of the bigger banks.   The big business of youth sports I remember growing up and wishing for a baseball or maybe a football for Christmas so I could go down the street and play with my friends. Fast forward to today and youth sports are a multibillion-dollar business for companies. The average American family spends $1,000 on sports per child. Whenever there’s an opportunity someone or some business will step in and fill the void, Dick’s Sporting Goods has helped fill this void. Dicks opened back in the 1940s by a gentleman name Richard Stack, who had the nickname, Dick. His grandmother had $300 cash in her cookie jar and that is what Dick used to start a fishing supply shop in Binghamton, New York. There are now more than 700 stores across the country and their newest concept known as Dick’s House of Sport is expected to have around 100 stores by the end of next year. These are mega stores that are 150,000 square feet, which is three times the size of a normal store. In these mega stores you will find batting cages, climbing walls, golf simulators, and even fields to run around to test out your new cleats. Dicks have been doing well considering it saw revenue skyrocket to $14.1 billion last year. This was twice what it was 10 years ago, not a bad feat for any company.   It’s not just oil; aluminum prices have been surging! With the recent war in Iran, the rising price of oil and gasoline has been quite noticeable and has been discussed heavily by various news outlets. One lesser-known impact from the difficulties within the Strait of Hormuz is the price for aluminum has surged. People may not notice it since they don’t necessarily buy aluminum directly, but if the problem persists you could see price increases for your favorite six pack of soda or beer. Outside of packaging, aluminum is also used across electronics, construction, transportation, and solar panels. In 2025, the Middle East accounted for roughly 21% of unwrought aluminum imports, which is the raw, unprocessed metal, and 13% of wrought aluminum imports, which is aluminum that has been mechanically shaped into sheets, rods, or other finished forms. Due to supply concerns, the price of aluminum has now increased to 4-year highs and there are concerns it could push even closer to $4,000 per ton from the current price around $3,400 per ton. Aluminum is the most abundant metal on earth, but production has slowed with locations like Bahrain’s Alba cutting production by 19%, this location is home to the world’s largest smelter. Unlike oil, China could have a huge impact when it comes to producing aluminum. China is already the biggest producer of aluminum, but to try and reduce emissions and prevent overcapacity they keep production constrained. They currently have several idle smelters that could be restarted if they feel aluminum prices are too high. Like we have said with the price of oil, I don’t see this as a long-term problem, but the longer supply is constrained for these input costs, the more problematic it is for inflation.   Surprise, US oil inventories actually increased I know what you’re thinking with the price of gasoline and oil increasing, oil inventories must be declining. Fortunately, that is not the case. If the inventories were decreasing the price of oil and gasoline at the pump would probably be even higher. For the week ending March 13th, crude oil inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels to 449.3 million barrels. This does not include the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Everyone including the analysts thought for sure there would be a decline and the estimate was for a decline of around 40,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories did fall by 5.4 million barrels to 244.1 million barrels as of March 13th, but that inventory level is still 3% above the five-year average for gasoline inventories. If the inventories remain high, we could see the price of oil and gasoline begin to decline in another couple weeks or so. It will not go back to where it was a month or so ago, but we should hopefully start seeing a decline back to more normal levels soon.   Financial Planning: How to Create a Tax-Free Account for a Child A powerful way to build tax-free wealth for a child is by strategically using the kiddie tax rules with investments that generate qualified dividends and long-term capital gains. Under the kiddie tax, the first $1,350 of investment income is tax-free, and the next $1,350 is taxed at the child’s rate, which for capital gains and qualified dividends is typically also 0%. This means a child can receive up to $2,700 of investment income each year with no federal tax. Income above this level is taxed at the parent’s rate, which may be 15% or 20%. While $2,700 may not seem like much, it can support a surprisingly large portfolio because dividend yields are typically low and capital gains are only recognized when assets are sold. For example, a portfolio with a 2% dividend yield would not generate $2,700 of dividends until it reaches about $135,000. While the account is below that level, capital gain harvesting can be used each year to bring total income up to $2,700, allowing gains to be realized tax-free while increasing the cost basis. Because this involves realizing gains (not losses), there are no wash sale restrictions, and investments can be immediately repurchased. By consistently harvesting gains over time, the child can build a portfolio with minimal tax drag and potentially access those funds later with little to no capital gains tax, especially if they continue the strategy after they are no longer subject to the kiddie tax.   Companies Discussed: Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG), Public Storage (PSA) & The Campbell's Company (CPB)

    56 min
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Smart Investing is the radio show where Brent and Chase try to make investing easier to understand. They demonstrate long-term investment strategies to help you find good value investments.

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