Super-Macro Management

Super-Macro Management

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SuperMacro provides a summary of the most critical economic and financial news from the major regions, with insights into the impact on markets and policy. We take a detailed look at the fundamentals once a week, highlighting opportunities for tactical trading strategies and longer-term investments.

04/11/2025

Navigating the Financial Storm: Insights on the S&P and Economic Data

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29 min
03/14/2025

Tariffs and Their Impact: A Deep Dive into Economic Uncertainty

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the pressing topic of tariffs and their impact on the economy. Jonny, who has been skeptical about the likelihood of a recession, discusses how current tariff policies are slowing growth, increasing prices, and disrupting global supply chains. The episode highlights the significant decline in business and consumer confidence, with companies putting hiring and capital expenditure plans on hold due to uncertainty. Jonny also emphasises the potential negative effects on household wealth and consumer spending if the stock market continues to decline. The conversation reveals that the real concern for CEOs may not just be the tariffs themselves but the unpredictability and abrupt changes in policy that could disrupt long-term business strategies. Tune in for an insightful analysis of the current economic climate and what it means for the future. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

42 min
01/22/2025

Navigating 2025: Economic Insights and Market Predictions | Episode 11

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews return after a brief hiatus to discuss economic projections for 2025. Johnny emphasises his confidence in the economy for the first half of the year, highlighting strong household and corporate balance sheets, alongside a robust job market. The conversation also touches on Johnny's successful year managing a portfolio for Fortum Capital, crediting his research and content creation for the impressive returns. Listeners are invited to subscribe to the Super Macro newsletter for insights and analysis, with a special offer for a free one-month trial. The episode sets the stage for future discussions, including the potential impact of political changes on the economy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

38 min
10/10/2024

The Resilient US Economy: Consumer Spending and Corporate Profits | Episode 10

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews dive into the recent economic performance of Ireland, discussing the optimistic outlook for the third quarter. Jonny highlights strong consumer spending trends, projecting a 3% growth rate and an overall GDP growth of around 2.5% for the quarter. They address previous concerns about consumers depleting their savings, revealing new revisions to national accounts that indicate higher household income than previously estimated. Jonny emphasizes the importance of these insights for understanding the current economic landscape and future expectations. Tune in for an in-depth analysis of these trends and their implications for the economy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

32 min
09/26/2024

Defending the No-Recession Stance - Episode 9

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the current market dynamics and the prevailing economic outlook. Jonny stands firm in his belief that a recession is unlikely, despite increasing skepticism in the market. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a non-consensus view to capitalize on investment opportunities. The discussion shifts to the Federal Reserve's recent actions, particularly focusing on the dovish stance reflected in the changes in the two-year yield around FOMC meetings since March 2022. Jonny presents a detailed analysis of the trends in interest rates, illustrating how the Fed's projections and actions have influenced market reactions. Tune in for valuable insights on navigating the complexities of today's economic landscape. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

31 min
09/16/2024

What Recession?!! - Episode 8

In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Jonny Matthews and Elvis delve into the current market dynamics and the looming recession narrative. Jonny shares insights on the disparity between market pricing and economic realities, particularly focusing on the rates market. He highlights that the market is pricing in approximately 275 basis points of cuts over the next 15 months, which he argues signals a deep recession—a scenario he believes is unlikely based on current economic conditions. The discussion emphasizes the differences between today's corporate sector and that of the past, noting that companies are now less leveraged than during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Jonny maintains his conviction that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates as drastically as the market anticipates, presenting a contrarian viewpoint that challenges prevailing market sentiments. Tune in for an engaging analysis that questions the market's recession pricing and explores the broader economic context. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

25 min
07/11/2024

Financial Conditions and Market Reactions: A Conversation with Andy Constan - Episode 7

In this episode, Jonny Matthews and Elvis discuss the recent weak CPI print and its implications on the economy. They analyze the job market, highlighting the contrast between cyclical and non-cyclical sectors. Johnny emphasizes the significance of real disposable income growth and strong private sector wages. Stay tuned for a special guest, Andy Constand, joining the conversation later in the episode. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction and Welcome 00:00:11 - Discussion on the Economy and CPI Print 00:00:57 - Analysis of Payroll and Job Sectors 00:01:30 - Real Disposable Income and Consumer Spending 00:02:37 - Household Wealth and Economic Outlook 00:03:37 - Market Reactions: Bonds Up, Equities Down 00:04:13 - Johnny's Year-to-Date Performance 00:04:42 - Subscription Information for SuperMacro 00:05:09 - Introduction of Special Guest Andy Constan 00:06:10 - Andy's Market Call in October/November 00:07:04 - Treasury Issuance and Market Reactions 00:08:08 - Fed's Dovish Stance and Market Impact 00:09:51 - Financial Conditions and Equity Market 00:11:07 - Recent Economic Data and CPI Print 00:12:18 - Sector Performance and Market Rotation 00:13:14 - Economic Slowdown and Rate Cuts 00:15:02 - Potential Economic Bounce and Treasury Market Outlook 00:16:03 - Financial Conditions and Fed's Influence 00:18:01 - Household Wealth and Consumer Behavior 00:19:04 - Labor Market and Fed's Potential Rate Cuts 00:20:00 - Impact of Financial Conditions on the Economy 00:22:47 - Bonds vs. Equities Valuation 00:23:19 - Fiscal Deficit and Treasury Issuance 00:26:03 - Fed's Policy and Inflation Control 00:28:06 - Treasury's Issuance Strategy 00:30:34 - Long-term Debt Issuance Strategy 00:35:21 - Term Premium Expansion and Asset Impact 00:35:40 - Political Aspects of Treasury Issuance 00:36:07 - Andy's Favorite Rock Bands 00:37:20 - Andy's Updated Top 5 Rock Bands 00:37:50 - Where to Find Andy's Work and Subscribe Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

39 min
06/09/2024

The S&P's Resilience Amid Softening US Economic Data - Episode 6

On this episode of Super Macro, Elvis and Jonny discuss the recent subpar economic data in the United States and its implications for Fed policy. They analyze charts showing the softening data against Treasury yields and the S&P, noting the disconnect between the S&P's strong performance and weakening economic indicators. Tune in to gain insights into the economic surprise index and what this shift in data trends could mean for the future. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

29 min

SuperMacro provides a summary of the most critical economic and financial news from the major regions, with insights into the impact on markets and policy. We take a detailed look at the fundamentals once a week, highlighting opportunities for tactical trading strategies and longer-term investments.

Creator

Super-Macro Management
Years Active

2024 - 2025
Episodes

13
Rating

Clean
Copyright

© Super-Macro Management
Show Website

Super-Macro Management