10 episodes

Daniels Trading futures brokers discuss the commodity markets from a fundamental, technical, and seasonal perspective. Turner's Take podcast is hosted by Craig Turner, commodity broker with Daniels Trading and author of Turner’s Take newsletter.

Turner's Take Craig Turner and Daniels Trading

    • Business
    • 4.9 • 31 Ratings

Daniels Trading futures brokers discuss the commodity markets from a fundamental, technical, and seasonal perspective. Turner's Take podcast is hosted by Craig Turner, commodity broker with Daniels Trading and author of Turner’s Take newsletter.

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Not Enough New Crop Acres To Go Around

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Not Enough New Crop Acres To Go Around

    Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 296



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    NEW PODCAST

    In this podcast we go over US new crop acreage estimates and what it could mean for corn, soybean and wheat prices in 2022. Based on our work it seems like there is not enough US acres to go around. Without trendline yields or better, 2022 might bring another marketing year of tight ending stocks and elevated prices. Make sure you take a listen to this week's Turner's Take Podcast!



    If you are not a subscriber to Turner's Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner's Take.

    CORN

    Corn and soybean acres tend to max out around 180mm in the US.  We currently have new crop corn at 91mm acres which leaves 89mm for soybeans.  Some may say the corn number is too low but with high input costs and high prices of other commodities, we think acres will be lower for corn outside the main corn belt.



    Below is a chart of major corn exporter stock/usage ratios going back twenty year.  According to the Jan USDA global exporter are at 8.5% stock/usage.  The lows in 2011 and 2020 were 7%.  When production losses in S. America are all account for we could be back at that 7% low again for 2022.



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    At 91mm acres and a trend line 180 yield (which would be a record by 3 bpa), US production just barely keeps up with demand.  Ethanol use is ahead of USDA pace needed to meet WASDE expectations. The USDA will most likely have to raise ethanol use by 50 to 100mm bushels.  Production losses in S. America could shift 100 to 200mm bushels in exports back to the US. The point is ending stocks are probably closer to 1.2 to 1.3 billion instead of 1.5 billion.  Also note that at 91mm acres and a record 180 bpa ending stocks do not change year over year.



    I like buying call spread and selling put spreads in July for spec and farmer re-ownership.  For farmers looking to sell new crop during the growing season I think some courage calls to sell into make a lot of sense too.

    • 33 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Jan WASDE Bearish SRW Wheat and Bullish Soybeans

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Jan WASDE Bearish SRW Wheat and Bullish Soybeans

    Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 295



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    NEW PODCAST

    The USDA released their January WASDE today along with the Quarterly Stocks Report and Winter Wheat Seedings.  The report was fairly neutral.  SRW wheat acres were higher than expected and winter wheat finished 13 cents lower.  Global soybean sticks tightened more than expected and soybeans closed 13 cents higher.  Corn was caught in the middle.  Make sure you take a listen to this week's Turner's Take Podcast!



    If you are not a subscriber to Turner's Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner's Take.

    JANUARY 2022 WASDE

    The January WASDE was a non-event today.  SRW wheat acres were higher than expected and global soybean ending stocks were lower than expected. There was nothing in this report that could cause a limit move or change a trend.  South American soybean production was lowered almost 10 MMTs.  This results in the a net draw on global ending stocks year-over-year instead of a build. Further losses in South America will tighten major global exporter stocks.



    Corn was neutral with no surprises.  Carryout is now 1.5 billion.  We were surprised the USDA lowered corn exports. I personally thought they would stay the same or go higher due to production losses in S. America.  Below is a summary of US old crop production and ending stocks, South American productions, and winter wheat seedings.



    Click here to open an account with Craig Turner & StoneX today!









    New Crop Supply and Demand Ideas

    Below are my early ideas on 2022-2023 new crop corn and soybeans.  I'm going to assume 91mm acres corn with a trendline yield of 180. For soybeans it is 89mm acres and a yield of 51.



    At 91mm acres and 180 bpa, US supply just barely keeps up with demand. Prices stay elevated in the $5s with weather markets into the $6s.  Some traders are arguing for 94mm acres corn. If that is the case then we have to add on 500mm bushels to ending stocks.  That means 2 billion carryout on a record production, beating old yields by 3 bpa.

    • 21 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Bullish Grains, Hawkish Fed

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Bullish Grains, Hawkish Fed

    Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 294



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    NEW PODCAST

    In this podcast we go over the Fed minutes and why the markets thought they were more hawkish than expected.  We talk about why the US Dollar Index could go over 100 and stay there.  We also go over why corn could still have more upside, why China is buying US soybean cargos, and the weakness in wheat.



    If you are not a subscriber to Turner's Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner's Take.



    About Turner's Take Podcast and Newsletter







    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner - Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner's Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner's Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner

    • 26 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Macro Market Fears vs South American Weather

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Macro Market Fears vs South American Weather

    Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 293



    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes!







    NEW PODCAST

    Grain markets opened up stronger Sunday night but eventually succumbed to omicron shutdown fears. It this podcast we go over inflation, interest rate hikes, and the threat of omicron shutdowns.  We also talk about why covid shutdowns hurt energy markets more than grain and oilseeds.  Make sure you take a listen to this week's Turner's Take Podcast.



    If you are not a subscriber to Turner's Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner's Take.

    Macro Markets

    Equity and energy are leading the markets lower today as omicron is spreading around the world.  Traders are concerned the high rate of infections could lead to some government imposing economic shutdowns.



    The Bank of England raised interest rates last week from 0.10% to 0.25% as monthly inflation is hitting 6%, three times their acceptable target.  The US is tapering bond purchases and plans for three rate hikes in 2022.  These are hawkish policies to fight inflation. China on the other hand cut lending rates as they are still dealing with their real estate crisis.  It is impossible to know what the real inflation rate is in China but one has to assume it is elevated just like the rest of the world. As major global economies are tightening fiscal policy, China is easing.  Their real estate crisis is probably worse then they are letting on in public.



    Below is a chart of the US Dollar index.  A close above 97 continues the bullish trend.  A close above 98 could lead to a break out to 100.  Major support comes in at 94.50.

    US Dollar Index



    Grains & Oilseeds

    The markets opened up stronger on threatening weather in Argentina and S. Brazil but the screen eventually went green to red as the global macro markets caused selling pressure across the board.  South American weather is forecast to be hot and dry over the next two weeks. This is the time of year when the markets build weather premium into corn and soybeans.  Seasonally corn, soybeans, and wheat trend higher for the next few weeks.  The markets may be down today due to omicron shutdown fears but once they selling subsides, grain and oilseeds should be first to rally.



    India announced today a halt on agricultural futures trading for the next year.  India is the largest importer of vegetable oil and the are very concerned about food inflation.  While this move will most likely have minimal impact on global vegetable oil prices, it does imply India thinks food inflation will get worse before it gets better.



    Below is a chart for March Corn.  If Argentina and S. Brazil stays hot and dry for the next two weeks then corn should close above $6.00 and could trade between $6.20 and $6.40.  Timely rains and a break in the heat put $5.60 in play. The next few weeks will go a long way in determining the S. American crop.





    Holiday Week

    The markets will be closed Friday, December 24. Thursday is a full trading day but once we close the markets will not open back up until Sunday night.

    • 16 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Dec WASDE Mixed

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Dec WASDE Mixed

    Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 292



    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes!







    NEW PODCAST

    In this week's podcast we focus on the USDA's Dec WASDE report. The market viewed it as bearish wheat, neutral corn, and bullish soybeans.  We see the trade quickly digesting this report and then moving on to trading US exports and S. American weather.  I think MW and KC wheat will find support on the breaks.  Corn has the potential to break through $6 on increased demand or S. American weather issues.  Soybeans will most likely be range bound but the USDA was supportive for soybean oil.  To learn then please take a listen to the latest Turner's Take Podcast!

    DEC WASDE MIXED

    WHEAT - This report is moderately bearish for wheat.  Exports for all US wheat were lowered by 20mm bushels to 840mm.  The USDA noted the slower pace for HRS wheat exports and lowered HRW wheat exports too.  High prices are rationing demand.  Wheat prices are expected to remain elevated for the rest of the marketing year and will discourage exports.  The US will be the residual supply of wheat on the global market.  Global wheat stocks came in at the high end of the range.  Consumption is higher but also is production and ending stocks.



    CORN - US numbers and S. American production is unchanged from Nov.  Global corn stocks were up slightly but overall this report was neutral for corn.



    SOYBEANS - US numbers and S. American production is unchanged from Nov.  Global soybean production was lowered along with ending stocks due to lower Chinese production.  This is mildly bullish for soybeans.



    SOYBEAN OIL - The USDA did note the EPA biofuel mandates and kept 2021/22 use at 11 billion pounds.  Soybean oil production is estimated to increase in order to offset lower canola and cottonseed oil production.  Ending stocks stayed the same, but use increased, which makes the stock/usage tighter to almost 7%.  Soybean oil is forecast to have an average price of 65 cents per pound in the cash market.



    If you are not a subscriber to Turner's Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner's Take.







    About Turner's Take Podcast and Newsletter







    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes! Craig Turner - Commodity Futures Broker 312-706-7610 cturner@danielstrading.com Turner's Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com Turner's Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com Twitter: @Turners_Take Contact Craig Turner

    • 17 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Fed Chairman Powell Says Inflation No Longer “Transitory”

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Fed Chairman Powell Says Inflation No Longer “Transitory”

    Play Turner's Take Ag Marketing Podcast Episode 291



    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes!







    New Podcast

    In this week's podcast we go over what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell meant when he told Congress inflation is no longer transitory.  If inflation is not transitory then it is structural.  Powell acknowledged the "risk of higher inflation has increased" and now the market will expect the Fed to accelerate their tapering along with two or three interest rate increases in 2022.  We also go over our views on the energy and ag markets, why we like old crop corn and soybean oil, but are sellers of new crop wheat.  Make sure you take a listen to this week's Turner's Take podcast!



    If you are not a subscriber to Turner's Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner's Take.

    Energy

    Crude Oil found support today just above $62, which was support tin May and August this year.  Crude was able to trade about $5 off the lows at the close, and this was after OPEC announced they would pump more oil.  This type of buying at a major support level, in the face of bearish news, is usually the sign of a low.  Crude needs to hold $62 or it could go down to the March lows of $57.

    Continuous Daily Crude Oil Chart



    Grains & Oilseeds

    United Airlines flew a 737 yesterday from Chicago to DC with one of the engines running 100% on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), aka biofuel.  This is another example of why I am bullish vegetable oil (soybean and canola) for the foreseeable future. It would be nice to see the EPA comment on biodiesel mandates but that might not happen until President Biden gets his Build Back Better deal sorted.



    Corn is currently in a range between $5.50 and $5.95.  For corn to break out over $6.00 there has to be a real S. American weather threat.  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released a report warning the market of a potential drought in Jan/Feb due to La Nina conditions.  I find it hard to put a lot of stock in long range weather forecasts but this is a story to follow. US and global corn stocks are tight and a major weather issue in Argentina and S. Brazil could send corn over $6.20 if the market thinks S. Am production could come down 5% or more.



    I like buying the May Corn $6.00/$6.70 call spread and selling the $5.50/$5.00 put spread for around even money.  If the market tanks then we have limited risk to the downside. If there are real issues in S. America or we have lower than expected US corn acre due to the fertilizer situation, we can always roll up the $6.70 leg on the call spread.

    Continuous Daily Corn Chart





    About Turner's Take Podcast and Newsletter







    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner's Take Podcast episodes!

    • 21 min

Customer Reviews

4.9 out of 5
31 Ratings

31 Ratings

dd03f7 ,

Great perspective

Hey where is your mid March update?

Brian-T ,

Easy to understand

This is a great podcast for anyone that’s wanting to get informed on what’s going on in the market side. He gives insights about why the market is going the way it is and what you can do to take advantage of it.

Light for Life ,

Superb quality, greatly informative, highly focused

Rare to find a podcast that focuses on the grains and soybeans to begin with to say nothing about one that does so with such intelligence and clarity. Turners Take does all that and more. Highly recommended.

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