30 episodes

Daniels Trading futures brokers discuss the commodity markets from a fundamental, technical, and seasonal perspective. Turner's Take podcast is hosted by Craig Turner, commodity broker with Daniels Trading and author of Turner’s Take newsletter.

Turner's Take Craig Turner and Daniels Trading

    • Investing
    • 4.9, 25 Ratings

Daniels Trading futures brokers discuss the commodity markets from a fundamental, technical, and seasonal perspective. Turner's Take podcast is hosted by Craig Turner, commodity broker with Daniels Trading and author of Turner’s Take newsletter.

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Corn and Soybean Seasonality

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Corn and Soybean Seasonality

    Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 241

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    New Podcast

    In this podcast we go over the effect US stimulus has over the US Dollar, metals, and the stock market. We then turn our attention to the seasonality of corn and soybeans during August. We also talk about the Corn vs Wheat futures spread.  To hear our ideas on the equities, metals, and grain markets, make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Macro Markets

    The Fed announced no changes in rates today.  Earnings have been fairly good.  The US government is providing as much stimulus as needed.  Combine all three of these and you get a lower dollar, higher metals prices, and a supported stock market.  The Emini S&P 500 is now only 4% away from the pre-COVID highs.  The NASDAQ has already traded to all time highs.  We think stock will test 3400 again but it could be a massive resistance level to get through with coronavirus still hampering the economy.

    If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

    Emini S&P 500



    Corn Supply & Demand Scenarios

    Below are the corn supply and demand scenarios I talked about on the podcast.  It sounds like to us we are at a trend line yield or higher.  At 180.5 bpa ending stocks are around 2.8 billion.  A 182.5 national bpa put ending stocks at 3.0.  I think this means corn has harvest lows of at least $3.00.  I still like bear spreads, short futures, long puts, and short calls.  Call me at 312-706-7610 if you want to put together a specific trading plan for August.

    Seasonally corn tends lower from now until first notice day (FND).  I think we see the same trend this year and corn most likely bottoms out between the last trading day of Aug (Sept futures FND) and the Sept WASDE on the 11th.  If yields are larger than 182 we could see lows not made until October.  For now it makes sense to get short/stay short as the analysts determine how big this crop is going to get.



    Soybean Supply & Demand Scenarios

    Soybeans are not as bearish as corn.  We are hearing reports of large soybean crops and with market will start pricing in a trend line yield or higher until proven otherwise.  GD/EX ratings are over 70% and a 51 or 51 national bpa is possible.  If soybeans are around trend, then the ending stocks will be about 440mm bushels.   A 51 bpa increases stocks to 524mm and a 52 bpa sends new crop ending stocks north of 600 million bushels.  A trend line yield should support soybeans at $8.40 during the harvest low.  If we start talking about 52bpa or higher then sub $8 is a short term possibility until we see demand (exports) pick up.  Short soybeans is one of my least favorite trading positions. I would rather wait for the seasonal bottom and get long.  In the mean time we can sell corn.



    About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter



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    • 22 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast | Corn Game Plan

    Turner’s Take Podcast | Corn Game Plan

    Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 240

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    New Podcast

    In this week’s podcast we go over our thoughts on the macro markets and then we dive into our game plan for corn between now and October.  We see corn drifting lower until first notice day.  Seasonally corn finds support between the end of August and mid September.  The post harvest rally can happen during the end of Sept through October.  If you want to hear what we are thinking and how we will trade it, make sure you take a list to Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Corn

    Based on the latest corn conditions and weather forecasts, the market should be fairly confident in a decent corn crop this year.  It remains to be seen how close the yields will be to trend, but it should be a couple of bpa +/- from 178.5.  That is going to put new crop ending stocks between 2.5 and 3.0 billion.  The funds will most likely sell corn between now and Sept Corn First Notice Day.  Corn spread should widen too as old crop is sold to make way for new crop.

    In the podcast we go over our game plan for being bearish between now and the end of Aug.  Corn should bottom out between FND and mid September.  The post harvest rally is usually late Sept through October.  After that the market will start to look at South America for any kind of supply side issues.

    Now that the corn crop looks like it will be “made”, the market is going pay more attention to estimated ending stocks and demand.  The potential bullish catalysts are weather (hot/dry Aug or early freeze) and China.  A weather market this late in the game is a low probability event.  China buying corn could be a big deal but if I were them I would wait until the end of Aug/early Sept to by big.  The Chinese have been very savvy buyers of soybeans and if they use the same methods for buying corn I would expect them to make bigger purchases as we head into the depths of harvest lows.

    The path of least resistance is lower and Sept corn has the potential to trade $3.00 by the end of Aug, which would probably drag Dec to $3.10.  For now we like being short corn.  There will be a time to get long but seasonally it is not the right time to start buying.

    If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

    Continuous Corn



    About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter



    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

    Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

    Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

    Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com

    Twitter: @Turners_Take...

    • 27 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast: COVID Vaccine Progress | Rumors of China Buying US SRW Wheat

    Turner’s Take Podcast: COVID Vaccine Progress | Rumors of China Buying US SRW Wheat

    Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 239

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    New Podcast

    In this week’s podcast we talk Moderna’s positive vaccine test results and how that could effect the markets later this year and into 2021.  We also talk about the grain markets and what to make of the rumors of China buying SRW Wheat from the US.  We wrap up the podcast by reviewing some of our positions in the livestock market.  Make sure you take a list to Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Moderna

    The macro markets are higher on new that Moderna’s corona virus vaccine is ready for the final phase of testing.  The first phase was tested on 45 volunteers and all of they had boosted immunity similar to people who had overcome the disease.  The final phase starts at the end of July and will be on 30,000 people.  It will take a few months to get the final results but there is hope a vaccine could be ready by the end of the year or early 2021.  This development should be considered bullish for equity and commodity markets overall.

    If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

    Emini S&P 500



    Wheat

    September SRW (Chicago) Wheat just closed over the 200 day moving average.  Production issues in Russia first caused the rally and now we are hearing rumors of China buying US SRW Wheat.  Combine all of that with the large fund short position and you get the chart action below.

    Lost production in the Black Sea area will most likely lead to Russia bringing back wheat export quotas for their new crop.  Weather in Argentina and Australia will be paid closer attention as their crops now mean more due to the losses in Russia.  If China really is a buyer of wheat then SRW could test the highs from earlier this year around $5.80 in the front month.

    I’m usually a big believer in the saying “wheat rallies deserve to be sold” but this one could have some legs.  I don’t want to chase this rally higher because it is very hard to trade rumors.  If we do get to the old highs and start to run out of momentum, we will look to get short. The world and US has plenty of wheat on hand.  Supply side rallies tend to be violent but short lived.

    Day and swing traders can look to buy the breaks and use the 200 day moving average as a support level.  Position traders should stay patient and wait for the reversal.

    If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

    Continuous SRW Wheat



     

    About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter



    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please a href="https://www.danielstrading.

    • 24 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast: Weather Forecast is Cooler and Wetter

    Turner’s Take Podcast: Weather Forecast is Cooler and Wetter

    Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 238

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    New Podcast

    In this week’s podcast we talk about the spikes in coronavirus cases and how it can impact the US equity and commodity markets.  We then dive into the latest weather market for corn and soybeans.  We go over possible yield scenarios and probable price ranges.  Make sure you take a list to Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Corn

    The updated weather models today called for cooler and wetter conditions in the Midwest later this week and into the weekend.  Next week is still hot and dry but the relief we see later this week will be beneficial for corn and soybeans.  Right now we think the market trading a trend line 178.5 bpa national yield with at least 30 cents of weather premium built in.

    Our new crop corn supply and demand table is below.  We updated the acres to 92mm and had yield scenarios of 170, 175, 178.5, and 180.  We think 178.5 is the most likely scenario but we do like to see what happens to ending stocks based on a whole range of yield estimates.  As you can see below, corn yields need to be sub 170 for stocks to start getting tight.  This suggests Dec Corn will struggle at the 200 day moving average of $3.75.  There is no good reason for prices to get that high unless the market thinks corn is at risk of having ending stocks lower than 2.0 billion.

    If the forecasts stay friendly to corn production then ending stocks could be estimated over 2.5 billion. That is still a lot of corn and the market makes it’s way to the low $3s during the harvest lows.  Dec Corn is trading in the $3.50s and you can make the case there is at least 30 cents of weather premium left in new crop corn futures.  If we have anything close to trend line yields then the corn futures spreads should widen too.  Dec 20/Dec21 and Sept20/March/21 should work lower.

    If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

    Corn Supply and Demand with Acreage and Yield Scenarios



     

    Soybeans

    Soybeans have a better bull story than corn.  If the weather is hot and dry in July and into August, we could see soybean yields come down.  At trend line soybean ending stocks are projected to be an adequate 400mm.  If soybeans has a 4% yield loss and the national average is 48 bpa, ending stocks could be sub 300, and soybeans could make a run at $10 during the heights of a summer rally.  Right now the market still thinks soybeans are close to trend line.

    Soybeans also have a viable demand story.  China will still need to buy US soybeans this year and Phase 1 is still a demand driver.  I am holding off on any new soybean sales.  From a spec point of view I still like soybean oil and I like spreading soy over corn.

    If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a a href="https://newaccount.gainfutures.com/CreateAccount?

    • 25 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast: Planting and Stocks Report Tomorrow

    Turner’s Take Podcast: Planting and Stocks Report Tomorrow

    Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 237

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    New Podcast

    This week we go over our thoughts on coronavirus and what a second wave could mean to the macro markets.  We also talk about the upcoming Planted Acres and Quarterly Stocks report to be released on June 30, at 11 am central.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take podcast.

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Grain & Oilseeds

    The Planted Acres and Quarterly Stocks report will be released tomorrow at 11 am.  The market is looking for a reduction in corn acres.  The USDA reported acres at 97 million in March and many in the trade are looking for 94 million to 96 million tomorrow.

    Below is my supply and demand table for new crop corn acres and yield scenarios.  My bullish estimate is 94mm acres planted and a 175 yield.  That puts corn ending stocks at 2.5 billion and corn is still below $3.50 basis Dec futures during harvest lows.  The good news is that scenario lets corn rally 20 cents and the lows are in for the year.

    The market neutral scenario is 95mm acres and trend line yields of 178.5 bpa.  Ending stocks are just under 3 billion and it argues for corn to test $3 by harvest.  The bearish scenario is 96mm acres and a 180 bpa national average.  In this case ending stocks are still around 3.3 billion and prices are sub $3 during harvest basis Dec 2020 futures.

    Once this report comes out I think trades quickly move onto the weather.

    Corn Supply and Demand with Acreage and Yield Scenarios



    If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

    WEATHER

    The forecasts for the next two weeks turned hotter and drier over the weekend.  Below is the 8-14 day temperature and precipitation maps from the NOAA.  The weather will be hotter than normal with average precipitation. The next four to six weeks is when corn and soybeans are made.  Corn will be pollinating and soybeans will be blooming/flowering.  These are critical times for corn and soybean production and the market will add weather premium if the forecasts stay hot and get drier for extended periods of time.

    NOAA 8-14 Day Temperature Forecast Map



    NOAA 8-14 Day Precipitation Temperature Map



     

    About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter



    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

    Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker

    Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com

    Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com

    Twitter: @Turners_Take

    a class="button" href="https://www.danielstrading.

    • 26 min
    Turner’s Take Podcast: Corn and Soybean Spreads

    Turner’s Take Podcast: Corn and Soybean Spreads

    Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 236

    If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!









    New Podcast

    Today we talk about why the stock market valuation are so much higher than what their earnings suggest and why it is likely to continue.  We also dive into the energy, grain, and livestock markets.  There are some seasonal spreads in corn and soybeans that we like and we are still bullish on soybean oil, crude oil, and the deferred contracts for hogs and cattle.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take Podcast!

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Macro Markets

    The stock market continues to rally we still like buying the dips.  We understand that valuations have run ahead of earnings but the market if forward thinking and believes better days are ahead.  The Fed has unlimited resources and like it or not, they are a supportive force in the stock market.  The Fed is now buying investment grade corporate bonds.  This is on top of keeping the short term interest rates low and their treasury and mortgage backed security purchases.  The 200 day moving average (green line) should be major support going forward.

    If you are interested in working with Craig Turner for hedging and marketing, then click here to open an account.  If you are a speculative or online trader then please click here. 

    Emini S&P 500



    Energy

    This is a very interesting article on why crude oil prices are likely to average less than $60 during the next business cycle.  There is an argument between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the other OPEC nations about what is a good price for crude.  Saudi Arabia wants prices in the $70s to pay their national budget but Russia and some other nations realize $50 to $60 is more in line for capturing market share.  There is a real difference of thought about margins vs market share.  The higher the price, the better the margins.  The lower the price the more market share the low cost providers gain.  Russia seems to want the market share and Saudi Arabia want the higher margins.

    I still like Dec Crude Oil and I think we eventually fill the gap around $43.50.  Our long term targets for 2021 are changing. If Russia only needs crude oil to be $50 or higher and they are after market share, they could be the nation that drives price going forward.  I still like buying Dec Crude on the dips and our price target remains $43.50

    If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777 to try it out for free!  You may also click here to register for Turner’s Take.

    Dec Crude Oil



    Ag

    During the podcast I talked about three season spreads.  The first two were bear spreads.  Selling Sept Corn and buying Dec Corn was the first. The second was selling Sept KC Wheat and buying Dec KC Wheat. I also talked about the Aug vs Nov soybean bull spread.

    • 25 min

Customer Reviews

4.9 out of 5
25 Ratings

25 Ratings

Brian-T ,

Easy to understand

This is a great podcast for anyone that’s wanting to get informed on what’s going on in the market side. He gives insights about why the market is going the way it is and what you can do to take advantage of it.

Light for Life ,

Superb quality, greatly informative, highly focused

Rare to find a podcast that focuses on the grains and soybeans to begin with to say nothing about one that does so with such intelligence and clarity. Turners Take does all that and more. Highly recommended.

Clarksky ,

Excellent

Great source of information and commentary on commodity markets.

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