Upside

Dan Bowyer & Mads Jensen - SuperSeed

This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system. Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology. From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems. The network is run on LinkedIn so join me there - https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbowyer/With full interview audio and video uploaded to all major outlets. Love to hear from you - dan@superseed.com 

  1. 2d ago

    Nvidia Backstops Wall Street - Open Source is Back Baby! - More AI Agents Go Rogue

    Mads is back in London, it's mid-August, and the AI train has once again failed to read the "quiet news week" memo. Dan and Mads go solo on money-go-rounds, half-trillion-dollar backstops, and a robot IPO that's 5,526x oversubscribed. 00:00 – Intro: just the two of us, we can make it if we try, just the two of us, building castles in the sky 01:20 – Markets: FTSE flatlining, S&P at records, UK GDP quietly outgrowing Germany and France. Nothingburgers all round  05:32 – A $2–3 trillion AI IPO... timed for the US midterms. What could possibly go wrong? 06:31 – Thrive Holdings: Friend A pays Friend B to buy Friend C. It's fine. It's a billion in revenue. It's fine  08:40 – Mistral reselling Chinese open-source models. Frontier lab to neo-cloud in one graceful pivot  11:20 – Gemini hits 1B users; Google pays $1.5B for a 100-day-old startup. Regulators, look away  13:44 – Nvidia lines up $500B+ of Wall Street money and guarantees a quarter of it. Compute is now an "investible asset class," apparently  22:42 – Zuck's 6,500-word ode to open source. Dan calls bullsheets 29:00 – Unitree's $9B IPO: iPhone moment or very expensive Newton?  36:10 – Rogue agents: Taiwan's government hacked autonomously... and one AI socially engineers its way into a Pilates class  40:20 – Why American plumbers out-earn British graduates  48:41 – Prediction: reverse acquihires land in Europe  49:07 – Deal of the week: Cambridge Aerospace's $300M Series C New episodes weekly.  Subscribe, or the agents win.

  2. Aug 1

    Markets: Why Winning Is Losing - Big Tech Is Out Of Cash - Cracks in Claude’s Cryptography.

    Upside looks behind the headlines to uncover the real stories affecting European venture. Hosted by Europe's leading emerging managers investing early in innovation; space, resilience, deep tech, and physical AI. Recorded 31 July. Dan, Mads, Lomax and Andrew on the FTSE having a record week precisely because it owns no technology, a Chinese memory maker worth more than Intel on the strength of laptop RAM, and a 24-year-old's hedge fund discovering that leverage cuts both ways. [00:00] Nobody's on a yacht  [02:36] Markets: FTSE record high, NASDAQ in correction, SOX in a bear market. Winning by owning nothing anyone wants [04:37] Big Tech earnings — Jassy floats a trillion-dollar AWS. Meta spends like an emperor, sells nothing  [08:06] CXMT: +466% on debut, 1,600x earnings, zero HBM. Ten percent float, capital controls, and a very enthusiastic retail bid  [10:30] Amazon's 5,000 satellites vs Starlink's head start. AST SpaceMobile's tennis-court antenna  [13:00] Situational Awareness unwinds. Hubris, meet Griffin  [16:53] VIX calm, VXN screaming, a 99th-percentile gap  [18:07] Jevon's Paradox: efficiency never saved anyone any coal  [20:12] Thinking Machines loses four of six co-founders. OpenAI nears 1bn WAU  [22:27] Give Hiring in the UK - £48k for a nuclear propulsion cyber lead. £57k for Cabinet Office TikToks - Gah [23:53] The US humanoid import ban is more than you think, and the death of the Shenzhen shortcut  [30:40] Nvidia backstops $250bn. Numbers stop meaning things...  [34:34] HAWK's key size halved in 60 hours and $100k of Claude [42:46] Mads' software factory reinvents the paperclip maximiser  [45:58] Meta + BlackRock's $14bn El Paso vehicle, conveniently off-books - more fancy financing to come  [46:48] Deals: nuclear turbines, Humanoid's unicorn Series A, synthetic defence environments, more quantum  [51:34] Week ahead: Palantir earnings, Anthropic IPO still bumbling Subscribe for weekly European venture, minus the hype. Views are the hosts' own. Not investment advice.

  3. Jul 25

    US Bans Chinese AI? - Hugging Face Hack PR? - What Will Burnham Do Next?

    Every week we dig behind the headlines shaping European venture.  This week Dan, Mads and Lomax - all early stage European VCs investing in space, resilience, physical AI and deep tech look at a market that's suddenly charging Big Tech for its AI spend, an agentic breach we called back in April, and the one question that decides Britain's future: is there any growth without a return to risk? ⏱️ Chapters  01:05 – Check-ins: Proto Town, what is it? 01:35 – Quick News: $100 oil, the PayPal/Stripe tie-up, a £74 battery, PitchBook's barbell & Kalanick's $1.7bn Atoms. 08:10 – Farnborough's quiet order book, plus Burnham to No.10 and Healey to No.11. 09:40 – The bill arrives: markets still charging bigly for AI capex — Alphabet, Tesla, SAP & Intel. 14:20 – Humanoids: a Newton moment or an iPhone moment?  21:00 – AI Corner: Kimi K3 vs Fable, the Chinese open-model "ban," the Hugging Face breach & AMD–Anthropic.  31:20 – Deep Dive: If you woke up as PM tomorrow what would you do? The risk-free society and the £10k everybody lost. 53:30 – Deals of the Week: Cusp AI, Arrakis & Uber/Delivery Hero. Also: the same week markets punished Alphabet and Tesla for spending, Moonshot shipped Fable-level reasoning at a third of the price, both blades of the squeeze at once. And the Hugging Face breach laid bare the asymmetry every European CISO should fear. For LPs, founders and fellow VCs — knowledge is having the information; wisdom is connecting the dots. 👉 Subscribe for weekly European venture, unfiltered. ⚠️ This show is not investment advice. The hosts may be invested in the funds and companies featured.

  4. Jul 18

    100th Episode Special: What will our world look like in 2028?

    Upside #100 - Two Years, Two Wars, One Existential Crisis, Zero Trophies. Upside is a weekly podcast that looks behind headlines affecting European venture. Hosted by European emerging managers who all invest early into deep tech, space, physical AI, health, defence and resilience. [02:34] Football grief counselling. Lomax recounts dragging a foldable chair home through the streets in an England shirt "my low point of 2026." Denmark, meanwhile, won something in 1992, apparently. [04:20] News blast: EU Inc's five non-negotiables, Thinking Machines ships "Inkling" (toolkit: "Tinker," adorable), Uber eyes Delivery Hero, and Yan LeCun launches a fund then kills it roughly ten seconds later. [07:10] Markets wobble live on air. NASDAQ down, TSMC down, everyone blames memory and Iran. [08:09] Eli Lilly buys Atai Beckley for up to $3.8bn. Lomax explains DMT nasal spray with the confidence of a man who has opinions about ayahuasca ceremonies. [11:19] Earnings carnage. ASML and TSMC print growth "as far as the eye can see." IBM has its worst day since 1972 (-25%). Mads eulogises the mainframe; Andrew notes it at least doesn't hallucinate your bank balance. [17:43] Korea's memory supercycle; the KOSPI went from 2,500 to 9,000 to 7,000, which is fine and normal and not at all terrifying. Mads says the cycle will turn; the only question is when.  [21:57] The main event: two years reviewed. Anthropic up 52x, SpaceX pulls off the biggest IPO in history, and Europe's share of global VC… halves from 16% to 8%. Cool cool cool. Mads insists Europe is thriving; Lomax insists Europe is missing the boat again; both are somehow right. [41:00] Predictions for 2028. Dan calls Bitcoin sub-$20k and declares Apple and Google will "win AI" then admits every prediction is just a personal grudge. Lomax: smart glasses become real and a quantum winter arrives. Andrew: tech is foreign policy, one big LLM ends up in trouble, and Europe manages eight orbital launches to America's ~180. Ouch. [57:12] SpaceX quietly stops taking rideshare bookings until 2028, casually orphaning every hardware startup on Earth. Lomax spots the European opportunity; Andrew reminds him we're "nowhere near" the industrial scale to seize it. [59:24] Deal of the Week: Valerian ($50m, the "anti-Palantir"), MicroAGI ($55m — largest seed in German history, and software-only), plus a repeat cheer for Atai Beckley. [1:02:20] Week ahead: the UK gets its seventh Prime Minister (lucky number seven!), Alphabet and SAP report, Farnborough flexes, and Lomax reveals he got a First in his Odyssey paper then threatens Christopher Nolan with notes. Thanks for a hundred episodes. Still not Joe Rogan. WiP.

  5. Jul 11

    China Blocks AI - Are UK Pensions Now In Venture!? - Is it 1999?

    Live from a Lisbon beach studio, Dan, Mads and Lomax dig behind the headlines shaping European venture. This week: China's AI power play, is UK pension money finally trickling into venture, and a full 10-vs-10 slugfest on whether we're partying like it's 1999. 01:10 — Quick news roundup. Grok 4.5 with Cursor, all three flavours of GPT-5.6, Nvidia shedding $1tn (still up 1,500% since ChatGPT), and UK startups raising $17bn in H1 2026 across four mega-rounds. 03:17 — Last week, settled. Tesla smashes deliveries at 480k on European demand; SpaceX's index entry proves a non-event; Samsung's 19x profit jump still can't lift the stock. 06:13 — Burnham and the OBR. A sobering warning: £100bn a year in cuts or tax rises to stabilise debt, against a new PM promising to spend more. 09:24 — GPT-5.6 gets the nod. OpenAI's public launch arrives only after government sign-off — a sign of the strange new times. 10:41 — China's AI playbook. Distilling US models, then gating their own. The lads debate Europe's exposure and why Mads thinks Nvidia's Nemotron wins whatever happens next. 21:10 — UK Pensions pile in. NEST's £200m venture sleeve via Schroders. Small beans, late-stage, top of the market — but is coercion or incentive the right unlock? 32:00 — Is it 1999? Ten reasons yes (CAPE past 40, $800bn circular deals, burn rates) versus ten reasons no (real revenue, saner multiples, constrained demand). The core split: this time the tech actually works. 46:13 — AI Corner. Fable 5 goes metered and chews credits alarmingly fast; Sonnet 5 mops up the low end; ID verification goes live. 48:57 — Portugal special. The 1755 earthquake, Pombal's proto-prefab "birdcage" buildings, and why Lisbon punches above its weight on unicorns per capita. 56:50 — Prediction. Europe's opening: win the real-world, industrial, regulated applications when the bubble deflates. 58:15 — Deals of the week. Luffy AI (£8.1m), Proxima Fusion (€411m), QuantumDiamonds (€91m), plus Blue Origin's $130bn raise. 1:00 — Week ahead. US CPI, ASML and TSMC earnings, and the VW restructuring showdown. New episode every week. Subscribe for the European venture view on global tech. #VentureCapital #AI #EuropeanTech #Startups

  6. Jul 4

    Burnham’s Britain - AI Creates A New World Order - How Trade Becomes War

    Every week, Upside digs behind the headlines shaping European venture.  This week Dan, Mads and Lomax get into Burnham's Britain and what a Manchester PM means for tech and capital; how AI is being pulled into a new world order as Washington moves from regulating the frontier to gating it, and possibly owning a slice of it; why June's "AI meltdown" was really a rotation, not a crash; trade turning into economic warfare across the US, EU and China; and the quiet return of the human, the rise of the forward-deployed engineer. Plus deals of the week and what to watch in the days ahead. Hosts: Dan (SuperSeed), Mads (SuperSeed) and Lomax (Outsized VC). CHAPTERS 00:43 – Quick-fire news: fusion's "first", Musk's not-a-phone, Iran & Hormuz, Google's brain drain & Gemma 4  03:14 – It's Burnham's Britain: the Starmer scorecard & what a Manchester PM means for tech, tax and risk  19:31 – AI & the new world order: the Anthropic gate, model bans and Washington's 5% stake  33:51 – Markets: rotation, not meltdown and where the next bottleneck (energy) sits  41:41 – Trade as a weapon: 100% tariff threats, Volkswagen's cuts and the China pickle  53:21 – Send in the humans: the rise of the forward-deployed engineer  59:13 – Deals of the week: Quantum Systems & EquiLibre  1:04:14 – The week ahead: Tesla, SpaceX, Samsung, RAISE Summit, VW board, TSMC  HIGHLIGHTS – Why the "seventh PM in ten years" problem is itself a drag on UK investment and the risk-free-society thesis behind flat growth since 2007.  – Devolution vs. deployment: Burnham wants AI and capital pushed to the regions, but "sovereign British data centres" mean little without models of your own.  – The US going from regulator, to gatekeeper, to prospective part-owner of the frontier and what that sovereign risk means for anyone building on top.  – Multiple layers of the AI stack holding 80%+ margins at once, and why every memory super-cycle has ended in oversupply.  – The forward-deployed engineer as history rhyming: IBM sent engineers in the '70s, and the pendulum's swinging back. DEALS OF THE WEEK – Quantum Systems (Munich) — $1.2bn Series D; Ukraine-proven autonomous drones, and a mooted Stark merger to build a European Anduril.  – EquiLibre (Prague) — Creandum's largest-ever single bet; RL trading agents from the DeepStack poker team. MENTIONED THIS EPISODE Realta Fusion · SpaceX · Google (Gemini 3.5 Pro, Gemma 4) · Anthropic (Fable, Mythos, Sonnet 5) · OpenAI · Tesla · Samsung · TSMC · Volkswagen · Alphabet EU fine · Mistral · Quantum Systems · Stark · EquiLibre · Creandum SOURCES & FURTHER READING – Anthropic launches Claude Sonnet 5 (TechCrunch): https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/30/anthropic-launches-claude-sonnet-5-as-a-cheaper-way-to-run-agents/  – US jobs report (BLS): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm  – Trump digital-tax tariff threat (BBC): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn4rd71411ko  – Additional analysis referenced from the Financial Times (AI world order, markets rotation, trade).

  7. Jun 27

    Why Does Micron Matter? Will UK Capital Flow? The AI Bill Is Due - Who’s Paying?

    Upside is a weekly podcast looking behind the headlines to see what's going to affect European venture, start-ups and investing.  Hosted by Dan and Mads from Superseed, and this week our special guest is Neil Shah from the London Stock Exchange.  A man, his pants, and an ice cube. Dan melts on air. Neil gets called an "artificial Indian" for failing British weather. The London Stock Exchange's tech chief joins to share how the tide is turning.  02:00 — Mini market update: AI infra gets a kicking SpaceX limps from 225 to 150, now flogging a $25bn bond and moonlighting as an NVIDIA reseller. Shiller PE knocking on dot-com's door. Nothing to see here. 05:56 — Micron: the canary, the coal mine, the lie detector Mads explains why a memory maker tells you everything. Revenue up 346%, 85% "sassy" margins, sold out for the year, customers throwing deposits at them. Also: this is why your iPhone got 20% pricier. 10:06 — Can the UK unlock capital? (Spoiler: pensions) A history lesson. UK pension AUM in equities: 53% in 1997, ~2.8% now. Neil tours Mansion House, PISCES, AIM reform, and 19 train stations of brand recognition. One silver bullet: pensions. Also a confession about a tragic cash ISA. 21:34 — Euro Defence attracts billions KNDS, Stark, the EIC discovering it's allowed to do defence now the paperwork matches. Mads connects the dots from air-con bans to North Sea oil to virtue-signalling our industry offshore. Buckle up. 30:39 — The AI invoice is due. Who's paying? Qualcomm crashes the chip party, 300 US data-centre moratoriums, enterprises haggling their bills down. Neil reveals the LSEG runs on Copilot (he's coping) and covets your Granola. 37:16 — Sovereign AI: let a thousand flowers bloom Italy's Domyn gets anointed Europe's frontier champion. Mads thinks picking winners is "wasted money" and we should copy the Chinese: be a customer, not a VC. 41:47 — Anthropic, Mythos & the Fable blackout fable5up.com says "no." Refresh: still no. Coming 8 July: government ID and facial scans for your fix. Backup plan: send the next PM to Washington with a letter from the King. 43:13 — Predictions Dan: SpaceX halves to 120. Neil: please, god, no - it'll ruin his IPO pipeline. 44:01 — Deal of the Week British Business Bank backs ten first-time UK VCs. Dan talks his own book, shamelessly. 45:07 — Week ahead Bending Spoons IPOs (AOL and Evernote's retirement home), SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100, EIC defence equity, and Microsoft threatens to rip Claude Code from its devs by Monday. Pour one out.

About

This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system. Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology. From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems. The network is run on LinkedIn so join me there - https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbowyer/With full interview audio and video uploaded to all major outlets. Love to hear from you - dan@superseed.com 

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