We talk economics and markets with leading policymakers and investors.
Raymond Sagayam on the Biggest Overlooked Market Risk, Building World Class Teams, and Lessons from Bodybuilding
Ray is the Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at Pictet Asset Management. He joined Pictet in 2010 as Head of Total Return Fixed Income, before becoming CIO in 2017 and an Equity Partner in 2018. Before joining Pictet, Raymond was head of dollar and euro credit investments at Swiss Re Asset Management. Before that, he worked for Bank Brussels Lambert (ING) trading US Credit. He has traded credit across all major geographies and began his career at ING Barings in Emerging Markets in 1997. Raymond holds a Bachelor's in Economics from the London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Master's in Contemporary Theology in the Catholic Tradition from Heythrop College, University of London. On this podcast we discussed:
1) Why investing globally gives you an edge. 2) The importance of trading across the capital structure of companies. 3) Why price matters. 4) Making illiquidity your friend. 5) What investors are currently missing – the credit cycle. 6) How to manage an investment team. 7) Nurture vs narcissism. 8) What to look for in new hires. 9) The importance of managing the exit process well. 10) When trading, knowing when to cut. 11) Understanding that it’s easier to buy and harder to sell. 12) Books that influenced Ray: Brave New World (Huxley), Liar’s Poker (Lewis), The New Encyclopedia of Modern Bodybuilding (Schwarzenegger).
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on How the Fed is Setting Policy and Why an 8% US Interest Rate is Likely
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a Senior Macro Strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha-generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in-depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy- and sell-side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss:
1) How the Fed is setting policy based on the latest inflation print. 2) Why the Fed has lost its bearings in its inflation strategy. 3) Why a terminal Fed Funds Rate around 8% is likely. 4) Why the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey tells us more about inflation than growth. 5) Why the Fed could struggle to slow the economy. 6) What investors should look out for. 7) Why higher demand for consumer durables could be the new normal. 8) Whether the US will go into recession in 2023
You can follow Dominque’s work here
Bert Gochet on China Risks, India’s Future and Brazil’s Commodities
Bert is a macro strategist at Macro Hive, specialising in Emerging Markets strategy. Between 2009 and 2017, he was co-head of EM strategy with a focus on fixed income and currencies at JP Morgan. He held other senior research roles at Bank of America and UBS in the 2000s. Bert has lived in all time zones, from Latin America and the US via Europe to Asia. On this podcast we discussed: 1) How the Fed and de-globalisation impacts EM. 2) Democratic commodity EM vs autocratic manufacturing EM. 3) China’s COVID policy and what it means for macro. 4) Are investors too pessimistic on China growth? 5) China’s new types of stimulus. 6) Chinese yuan weakness and tariffs. 7) China/Taiwan risks. 8) Modi’s performance as India PM. 9) India’s inflation challenge. 10) Flows from China to India. 11) Brazil’s commodity play. 12) Leftist politics in Latin America. 13) Latam’s inflation sensitivity
Thorsten Wegener On the Simplest Way to Understand Option Markets
Thorsten spent twenty years trading equity derivatives and was a partner at Bear Stearns. He was also head of equity derivatives at Panmure Gordan and Head of Trading Warrants and Structured Products at WestLB. Currently, he educates and lectures on derivative markets.
On this podcast we discussed a simple explanation of options, how to understand volatility, and how to trade VIX. He also gave his views on skew and the volatility smile, how to manage your options position, understanding the greeks – delta, gamma, theta, and the different players in the options market. Finally, on a more personal note, Thorsten shared the books that influenced him the most: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefvre), and Atlas Shrugged (Rand).
Stéphane Ouellette on the Crypto Crash, and What Next
Stéphane is CEO and Co-Founder of FRNT Financial – a crypto-focused investment bank. He began his capital markets career working in the Equity Products group on the trading floor at BMO Capital Markets (BMO) in 2010 as a Cash Equity Sales Trader. He eventually transitioned into BMO’s hedge fund sales trading group and added coverage of equity options and equity swaps. In 2018, Stéphane left BMO to start FRNT Financial. In August 2019, Stéphane was elected Chairman of the Canadian Security Traders Association (CSTA) following a term as Vice Chairman. On this podcast we discussed use cases for crypto, why the differences between Ethereum and bitcoin are exaggerated, what to look out for when investing in crypto, and much more.
Jay Newman on the Hidden Story of How Money is Moved Around the World
Jay spent 40 years in international finance, including at Elliot Management and Lehmans. His primary focus was on distressed EM sovereign debt. He was central to the historic 15-year fight to recover billions of dollars in defaulted Argentine debt. That campaign, which included the court-approved seizure of an Argentinian Navy ship in Ghana with 200 people aboard in 2012, reached a successful conclusion in 2016. The Wall Street Journal reported that the settlement was worth $2.4 billion, a gain of roughly 10 to 15 times the original investment. The Financial Times said the settlement ‘is seen as one of the greatest hedge fund trades’ in history. Jay has now switched to writing with his debut novel, about dark money and global politics, Undermoney. On this podcast we discussed how to sue a country, how countries like Russia evade sanctions, how illicit money is moved through central banks, and much more.
This podcast is a must listen for anyone looking to stay up to date on the latest movements and trends in the market. Bilal is a highly knowledgeable and skilled host and each episode is truly insightful.
I love to get deep insight with quite different perspectives for non sophisticated investors
Great podcast, different perspectives