The 100 Year Thinkers: Long-Term Compounding in a Short-Term World

Excess Returns
  • 5.0 (6)
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  • UPDATED MONTHLY

 In a world where most investors think in quarters, The 100 Year Thinkers offers insights from investors who think in decades. Hosted by Matt Ziegler and Bogumil Baranowski and featuring Robert Hagstrom, and Chris Mayer, this monthly roundtable will tackle many of the issues all of us face as investors, but look at them through the lens of investors who operate over very long time frames.  We will cover a wide range of topics ranging from stock selection to portfolio construction to the economy and behavioral finance, but we will do it by focusing on what matters over the long-term.

Episodes

  1. JAN 23

    The Labels That Destroy Returns | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on How Language Misleads Markets

    When Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer sit down together, the conversation goes far beyond stock picking. Join them, along with Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how investors think, how language shapes decision making, and why many of the debates dominating today’s markets miss the deeper pointDrawing on ideas from general semantics, mental models, and long-term capital compounding, the discussion reframes market concentration, AI, valuation, and risk through a more durable lens built for long-horizon investors. Topics covered in this episode Why high valuation multiples are not automatically a sign of overvaluation What return on invested capital really tells you about long-term compounding The difference between describing a business and understanding the business itself Market concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investors The idea of time binding and what investors can learn from history without overfitting it Map versus territory and how financial statements can obscure underlying business reality AI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from speculative narratives Why many valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizon How language, labels, and mental shortcuts create overconfidence in investing What it takes for a company to compound capital over decades, not years Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why valuation multiples alone are misleading 02:30 Time binding and how accumulated knowledge shapes investing 04:45 Market concentration and what history can and cannot tell us 06:30 Index construction, market cap weighting, and benchmark distortions 09:55 Map versus territory and the limits of financial statements 12:30 History, narratives, and how descriptions shape beliefs 17:00 AI narratives, capital spending, and separating signal from noise 20:40 Technology cycles, bubbles, and what past revolutions can teach investors 24:20 Why language matters in investing and the danger of saying something is 29:50 Dating and indexing companies to avoid static thinking 34:00 Global markets, changing data sets, and why comparisons break down 38:30 Returns on capital, scale, and why today’s winners dominate indexes 42:00 The pace of change in technology and market structure 47:40 True, false, and indeterminate answers in valuation debates 52:00 Capital allocation, balance sheet risk, and surviving volatility 56:30 What really matters in 100x investments 58:30 Final thoughts and recommended reading

    1h 14m

  2. 12/15/2025

    The Wall Street Labels That Trap You: Chris Mayer & Robert Hagstrom on How Language Misleads Markets

    In this episode, Robert Hagstrom , Chris Mayer , Bogumil Baranowski and Matt Zeigler return for a wide-ranging conversation on how great investors really think. Rather than focusing on formulas, factor labels, or short-term market predictions, the discussion explores investing as a discipline grounded in philosophy, language, psychology, and long-term business fundamentals. Drawing on ideas from Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Bill Miller, and thinkers from outside finance, this conversation challenges many of Wall Street’s most common assumptions and offers a deeper framework for making better long-term investment decisions. Topics covered in this episode Why value investing has nothing to do with price to earnings or price to book ratios The false divide between value and growth investing and why growth is a component of value How abstractions and labels distort decision making in markets General semantics and how language shapes investing mistakes Charlie Munger’s concept of worldly wisdom and the latticework of mental models Why reversion to the mean is a flawed way to think about markets The stock market as a complex adaptive system rather than a predictable machine Why most market forecasts fail and why people still believe them Myopic loss aversion and how frequent evaluation destroys long-term returns The importance of time horizon, patience, and long-term compounding How great investors think about conviction, uncertainty, and being wrong When to hold through difficulty versus when to exit an investment Lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Bill Miller on thinking independently Timestamps 00:00 Value investing beyond ratios and labels 01:00 Introducing Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer 02:30 Investing as a subdivision of worldly wisdom 04:10 Abstractions, language, and Wall Street thinking 07:30 General semantics and investing mistakes 09:00 Latticework of mental models and interdisciplinary thinking 12:30 Buffett’s rejection of Wall Street jargon 18:55 Value versus growth and why the labels fail 23:40 Language, meaning, and investment errors 27:00 Time horizon, myopic loss aversion, and frequent evaluation 31:00 Sideways markets and where returns really come from 36:50 Complex adaptive systems and why prediction fails 40:00 Spurious correlations and false cause and effect 45:00 Forecasting, randomness, and the illusion of certainty 48:00 Conviction, expectations, and uncertainty in investing 50:00 When to sell and the cost of being wrong 54:30 Building an interdisciplinary investing framework

    1h 13m

  3. 11/13/2025

    The Elusive Search for the Perfect Business | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom

    This episode of The 100 Year Thinkers brings together Robert Hagstrom, Chris Mayer, and Bogumil Baranowski for a deep conversation on what makes a great business, why long-term investing is so hard, and how the world’s best investors think about mistakes, management, conviction, and the durability of competitive advantages. We explore perfect businesses, the pain of missed opportunities, the behavioral traps that derail long-term compounding, and how to navigate rapid technological change while keeping your investment process grounded. Topics covered: • What defines a perfect business and why so few qualify • The role of capital efficiency, returns on capital, and cash generation • Why omissions are often investors’ most painful mistakes • How to build conviction to hold great companies through drawdowns • The behavioral edge of true long-term investing • Management quality, insider ownership, incentives, and red flags • Why owner earnings and free cash flow matter more than GAAP earnings • The challenge of evaluating fast-changing industries and staying within your circle of competence • How AI, networks, and scale economics reshape competitive moats • Portfolio management lessons, starter positions, and letting winners run Timestamps: 00:00 Perfect businesses and long-term economics 01:49 Defining the perfect stock 03:27 Holding long term through volatility 07:30 Behavioral inefficiencies and market structure 09:15 Humanizing mistakes and decision making 14:28 Errors of omission and painful missed opportunities 19:00 What to look for in management 24:27 Signals from financial disclosures and actions 26:00 Key quantitative metrics for long-term compounders 34:04 Owner earnings vs GAAP earnings 37:00 Intangible investment and modern cash flow analysis 38:50 Circle of competence and fast-changing industries 42:00 Large language models, networks, and moats 43:52 AI use cases and productivity 45:00 Closing thoughts and where to find the guests 46:25 Episode recap and takeaways

    1h 2m

  4. 10/13/2025

    The 100 Year Thinkers | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Finding the Next Great Compounders

    In a world that moves tick by tick and quarter by quarter, The 100-Year Thinkers zooms out to explore what it really means to invest with patience, discipline, and perspective. In this premiere episode, join Matt Zeigler, Bogumil Baranowski, Chris Mayer, and Robert Hagstrom as they discuss market concentration, the dominance of mega-cap stocks, and how investors can think in decades—not days. Together, they explore the evolution of active management, the role of the S&P 500, the challenge of private equity, and how to build portfolios that last. • Concentration and the rise of mega-cap dominance• Equal-weight vs. market-cap-weighted indexes• The role of the S&P 500 and how it shapes investor behavior• Why the Magnificent Seven may not repeat past winners’ mistakes• The differences between today’s tech leaders and the 1999 bubble• The changing nature of private equity and illiquidity premiums• How to define success as an investor beyond beating the index• The importance of focusing on business economics over stock prices• Lessons from Buffett, Bill Miller, and other long-term thinkers 00:00 Concentration and portfolio construction04:00 Market-cap dominance and equal vs. cap weighting10:30 Active management, benchmarks, and the S&P 50017:00 Economic realities of the top 10 stocks23:00 Government policy and market intervention26:00 Comparing 2024 to 1999 and lessons from past cycles32:00 Innovation, Russell 2000, and private company growth40:00 Active management and how the S&P wins41:45 The private equity boom and its challenges49:00 Redefining performance and investor goals55:00 The importance of focusing on business economics57:00 Closing thoughts and where to find the guests Topics CoveredTimestamps

    59 min
  • 4 Episodes

Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
6 Ratings

About

 In a world where most investors think in quarters, The 100 Year Thinkers offers insights from investors who think in decades. Hosted by Matt Ziegler and Bogumil Baranowski and featuring Robert Hagstrom, and Chris Mayer, this monthly roundtable will tackle many of the issues all of us face as investors, but look at them through the lens of investors who operate over very long time frames.  We will cover a wide range of topics ranging from stock selection to portfolio construction to the economy and behavioral finance, but we will do it by focusing on what matters over the long-term.

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