I set aside an episode I'd spent a week on after an adversarial read exposed a weakness in my own arguments. What came out of that is a three-question tool for evaluating claims — mine, yours, your clients', and the ones on every sales page you'll read this week. In this episode I run two of my own claims through it and show you where they hold and where they don't. [00:00] The episode I've been working on for a week — over 3,000 words, and I stopped short of publishing it[00:57] Why I wanted a closer look: I want this material to be foundational, which means it has to be reliable[01:26] I know how close I am to my own theories, so I don't know where my blind spots are[01:50] A reader who already agrees with me nods along. A reader who doesn't might find big holes[02:12] What I asked Claude to do: not content, not flow, not style — strength and defensibility[02:39] It found gaping holes in about thirty seconds, and a discernment tool started to emerge from the conversation[03:24] Where this tool applies: your own thinking, content you consume, sales pages, and conversations with clients — not to put them on trial, but to help them see the claims they're making[03:57] The tool: What is the claim being made? What happens if the claim is wrong? Can we find out if it's wrong?[04:39] Story one: my high school best friend texted me after five years of no contact, and I felt a surge of good feeling[05:04] Story two: a fellow coach running Facebook ads to consultations, spending far more than is coming backQuestion one: what is the claim? [05:47] The claim I actually made about my friend — relationships persist in spite of long dormancy — and why it's easy to confirm[06:13] The next rung up: dormant relationships could become coaching engagements. I can confirm the warm feeling. I can't confirm it converts[07:08] A claim about affinity quietly gets swapped for a claim about a transaction — and you'll meet this move constantly in the wild[07:25] "He referred me a client, therefore dormant relationships are your best lead source" — a sample size of one driving strategy, with no mention of the other forty-nine[08:14] The absurd version, three short steps from a story that felt completely reasonable[08:45] Why a relatable story and a relatable emotion can make an absurd claim feel believable[09:01] Every one of those claims could be true. The failure isn't dishonesty — it's the fit between the facts and what I claimed from them[09:37] The second story, where I got onto shaky ground[10:04] I never said you can't grow a coaching practice through paid ads. I implied it, and asked you to state it for me[10:29] Why this is the same move as the earnings claims I criticized a few weeks ago — just the mathematical reverse[11:17] An old sales adage from my own selling days: if you say it, the prospect can challenge it; if they say it, it's true[11:41] "So? You tell me." I was completely guilty of this[12:26] If I had stated my claim, I would have had to defend my claim[12:31] Stating the claim is often the whole jobQuestion two: what happens if the claim is wrong? [13:21] If the friend story were entirely fabricated, essentially nothing changes for you or for me[13:47] If I'm wrong about paid ads, many of you discard a potentially profitable growth strategy[14:14] The stakes, not the intent, are what separate these two[14:43] I'm asking my listener to eat the cost of my being wrong — which is why I've got to clean up the claimQuestion three: can we find out if it's wrong? [15:18] For the friend claim, trivially — you yourselves are the evidence, which is why it needs no support[15:56] My first job with the ads claim: admit I don't know how representative that one coach is[16:29] Acknowledging that weakens the claim and strengthens the ethics — it pulls the cost of being wrong back onto me[17:08] I struggle to believe advertising works for one-on-one practices, and I don't have enough data to stand behind that[17:40] What it would take to actually know: survey a hundred coaches and find out[18:02] What a strong version of my claim would sound like with real numbers behind it[18:53] Going further still — accounting for the cases where it did work, and what those coaches had in play[19:30] Until I've done that work: this is my bias, supported by one story[19:45] What I wish the people making earnings claims would publish — robust data we could analyze, discuss, and debate[20:21] All I can offer today is an opinion with a small handful of anecdotes. You have to do your own researchThe tool, restated [20:31] Three questions for a client conversation, a spouse, a sales page, or a purchase decision[20:56] It usually takes about thirty seconds — and at minimum it tells you what the next step would be[21:20] If nothing else, it short-circuits hasty decisions built on weak claimsWork with me Office Hours is a community for coaches building sustainable one-on-one practices — officehourswithmark.com Bookkeeping Let's Do the Books is bookkeeping built for coaches and small practices — letsdothebooks.com