Beverage Business Briefing

Carlos DeOliveira

Stay ahead of the trends shaping the world of wine, spirits, beer, and non-alcoholic drinks. Each episode delivers a quick, insightful look at the latest developments in the beverage industry—from distributor shake-ups and retail strategies to brand launches, consumer trends, and regulatory updates. Whether you’re a retailer, supplier, or industry enthusiast, Beverage Business Briefing keeps you informed and ready to make smarter decisions in today’s fast-changing marketplace.

  1. 2D AGO

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 15, 2026

    **Key Themes This Week:** - **The Great Distribution Reshuffling:** RNDC exits nearly all U.S. territories; Reyes acquires 11 states, Breakthru takes Kentucky and Indiana, Martignetti absorbs 17 control states, Manhattan Beer takes New York wine/spirits rights, Columbia Distributing eyes Oregon/Washington/Alaska, Quality Brands picks up Nebraska and the Dakotas. Southern Glazer's and Johnson Brothers aggressively capture displaced relationships. Glazer's Inc. confirms family leadership continuity after Bennett Glazer's passing. - **Brown-Forman's Double Rejection:** Pernod Ricard merger-of-equals collapses over family governance disputes. Sazerac's $17B ($32/share) all-cash bid formally rejected. Brown-Forman faces third consecutive year of declining sales with no strategic partner. Sazerac pivots, takes equity stake in SIPMARGS RTD margarita brand. - **Off-Premise Sales Deterioration:** Total bev-alc dollar sales -5.4% L4W (NIQ); volume -5.8%. Wine leads declines at -8.3% dollars. Spirits -6.9%. Beer -4.7%. Prepared cocktails turn negative for first time (-0.1% dollars, -4.7% volume). IWSR full-year 2025: total U.S. volumes -5%. - **Beer Bright Spots Amid Broad Decline:** Busch Light Apple drives ABI outperformance (+17.4% dollars). Pacifico +19.6%. Athletic Brewing +19.6% L4W dollars. Happy Dad +48.8%. Non-alcoholic beer +12.3%. Below-premium growing. Craft improving to -2.6% YTD from -5.2% full-year 2025; hyper-local brands and IPAs lead. - **RTD Spirits Continue Surging:** Spirit-based RTDs +27.7% L4W. Sun Cruiser +143%, Cutwater +132%, Surfside +79%, BuzzBallz +23%. RTD margaritas hit $1.6B annual sales. Korean soju emerges with projected 16% CAGR through 2029. - **Wine's Structural Reset:** $115B in spending but volume -3% to 362M cases (down 12% since 2018). DTC shipments -15% volume, -6% value. 11,107 wineries — nearly 50% more than 2012. 58% report unsold stock problems. Duckhorn realigns national distribution. Wonderful Company expands JUSTIN and Lewis Cellars through SGWS. Wine-Searcher acquired by GLX/Platin Sàrl. - **Willamette Valley Vineyards** Q1 revenue +9.5% to $8.26M; distributor sales up but DTC declined. Net loss narrowed 22.5%. - **Regulatory Earthquake:** Sixth Circuit strikes Ohio wine shipping restrictions as unconstitutional; Supreme Court petition expected by August 4. California self-distribution law challenged (Blue Sky Vineyards case, June 2 hearing). CA AB 1585 advances (100% American grapes for "American" label). NY grocery wine sales bill in committee. NC ABC reform campaign active. CORCA passes House 348-60. Hemp THC crackdown regulations effective November 2026. - **Public Health Pressure:** Alcohol linked to 178,000 annual U.S. deaths, $240B+ economic cost. Third-leading preventable cause of cancer. Stanford study finds cancer-specific warning labels more effective. Alaska passes point-of-sale cancer warning law; Massachusetts bill introduced. - **Pricing & Macro:** CPI +3.8% YoY. Food-at-home +3.0%. Alcohol-at-home just +0.4%; wine-at-home deflationary at -0.8%. Beer-at-home +2.2%. Average beer case price up $0.52 YTD to $31.20. Costco April sales +13% YoY; U.S. comps +11.7%. - **Monster Beverage** Q1 blowout: FX-neutral sales +22.1% vs. +14.3% consensus. U.S. +15%. Ultra line +20%. EPS $0.58 beats by $0.05. Red Bull swings negative in latest reads; Celsius/Alani Nu maintain strong momentum. - **Citi Sector Views:** Positive on ABI, Carlsberg, BAT, Campari. Negative on Heineken, Pernod Ricard. - **2026 FIFA World Cup** (June 11–July 19): Expected mid-to-high single-digit alcohol sales lift. Key beneficiaries: Michelob Ultra, Modelo, Busch Light Apple, Cutwater, White Claw, Beatbox. - **RBC's 10 Forces Reshaping CPG:** Agentic commerce, K-shaped economy permanence, authenticity premium, longevity-focused functional beverages targeting 55+ consumers. - **In Memoriam:** Charles R. "Chuck" Smith, longtime Pernod Ricard SVP of Sales, Remy Amerique EVP, and E&J Gallo executive, passed April 30 at age approximately 85.

    47 min

  2. MAY 8

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 08, 2026

    **Key Themes This Week:** - Legal/regulatory disruption accelerating: Sixth Circuit strikes Ohio shipping law; Supreme Court may take up retail shipping cases May 14 - Tariff relief: 10% Scotch whisky tariff eliminated following King Charles state visit - Beer showing cyclical recovery signs: ABI first volume growth since 2023; March shipments +2.5%; BPI above 50 for second consecutive month - Spirits and wine under sustained pressure: Diageo US spirits -15.4%; total wine volumes at decade-low - RTD/spirits-based cocktails as sole consistent growth driver across channels - Distribution landscape in upheaval: RNDC exits 25+ markets in 2026; Manhattan Beer absorbs NY Opici rights **Major Earnings:** - AB InBev: Q1 volume +0.8% (first growth since 2023); organic EBITDA +5.3%; US depletions +0.3% - Diageo: Q3 organic sales +0.3% (beat of -2.3% consensus); North America -9.4%; US spirits -15.4% - Campari: Q1 organic +2.9% vs +5.1% consensus; shares -11% - Boston Beer: YTD depletions -4%; guidance narrowed to -low to -mid single digits - Celsius Holdings: Revenue +138% YoY to $782.6M; adjusted EBITDA margin 25% - Ball Corporation: North American can supply sold through 2026, 90%+ through 2027 **Notable M&A/Transactions:** - Stone Brewing sold by Sapporo to Firestone Walker (Duvel USA) - LVMH exploring sales of Joseph Phelps, Eminente rum, Fenty Beauty stake - ABI Newark brewery sold for $360M to Goodman North America - RNDC: BreakThru acquiring KY/IN; QBD acquiring NE/SD/ND - Manhattan Beer acquiring RNDC New York distribution rights (Opici) - Golden Eagle Distributing acquires Rinella Company territory in Western Illinois - Veritas Vineyards acquired by Veritas Legacy Partners - Elixir Distillers appoints MISA Imports as US importer - Ball Corporation completes Benepack acquisition **Regulatory & Legal:** - Sixth Circuit strikes Ohio wine retailer shipping law as unconstitutional - SCOTUS to conference May 14 on AZ and IN retail shipping cases - North Carolina "Free Our Spirits" campaign; Senate Bill 938 filed - NYC Health Department launches citywide anti-alcohol cancer awareness campaign - Cannabis class action lawsuits filed against Cresco, Green Thumb, Verano, Curaleaf **Consumer/Retail Trends:** - Total Wine dedicating 28-32 feet per store to THC beverages - Hard lemonade hits $1.5B; spirits-based RTDs +144.6% within segment - Surfside now #2 hard lemonade brand family at 9.9% share - 27% of consumers switching to lower-priced retailers (up from 16%) - Flavored sparkling wine: 25% CAGR since 2019 - On-premise wine sales -26% since 2019; draft beer gaining share - Celsius CEO calls declining alcohol consumption "a major opportunity" **Industry Support:** - Wine Institute secures $6M USDA export funding - WSWA graduates 28 women leaders through Columbia Business School program - ABL designates May as Tavern Month; on-premise supports 2M+ jobs

    43 min

  3. MAY 4

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | May 01, 2026

    **Week of April 27 – May 1, 2026** ### Distribution Upheaval - **RNDC dissolution accelerates**: Columbia Distributing acquires Oregon/Washington/Alaska; Martignetti takes 13 control states + brokerage in 4 more; Reyes Beverage Group closing on 11 states by late May; Manhattan Beer acquires RNDC-Opici NY distribution rights; Great Plains buyer TBD; Illinois JV in flux - **2,774 WARN Act notices** issued across six states; Strauss Borrelli launches investigation in South Carolina - **Brown-Forman** completes historic 18 control-state distribution realignment — Johnson Brothers, Southern Glazer's, Superior Beverage, Great Lakes Wine & Spirits named - **Southern Glazer's** adds Edrington's full portfolio (including The Macallan) in New York, effective June 1 - **Johnson Brothers** expands J. Lohr partnership across Indiana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota - **Southern Crown Partners** to acquire Milestone Beverage in South Carolina - **BMO survey**: ~25% of US wineries lost a primary distributor in 2025; 36% in Napa County; ~50% currently seeking new partners ### M&A & Corporate Strategy - **Pernod Ricard–Brown-Forman merger collapses** over share capital imbalance (50% Brown family vs. 14% Ricard family) - **Sazerac** reported $15B bid for Brown-Forman ($32/share); separately signs exclusive US distribution deal with **818 Tequila** (Kendall Jenner) - **Diageo CEO Dave Lewis** restructuring regional management; mid-May notifications expected; US spirits sales down 10.4% in latest Nielsen period; selling majority stake in East African Breweries to Asahi for $2.3B - **The Wine Group** acquires **Phony Negroni** non-alc brand from St. Agrestis - **Fat Brands** completes Ch. 11 auction: Hot Dog on a Stick ($8M to Amazing Brands), Elevation Burger ($2.5M to Kuwait franchisee group); 16 remaining brands via credit bid ### Earnings Highlights - **Molson Coors**: Q1 profit $151.3M ($0.80/share), revenue $2.35B — beat on top and bottom line; volumes -2.9%; Fever-Tree and Topo Chico outperform; Q2 volumes guided -6% to -9% - **Boston Beer**: Net loss of $145.3M (-$13.88/share) on Ardagh litigation charge; adj. EPS $1.64 (missed $1.96 consensus); revenue $433.9M; shipments -6.9%; full-year guidance lowered - **Becle (Jose Cuervo)**: Net profit down 67%; North America volumes -24%; US tequila imports down 32% in 2025 - **MGP Ingredients**: Distilling Solutions revenue -40%; brown goods -56%; Limestone Branch and Lux Row distilleries paused; Penelope Bourbon +10% - **Coca-Cola**: Organic sales +10% (beat 6.5% consensus); adj. EPS $0.86; full-year guidance raised to +8-9% ### Market Data & Scanner Trends - **Beer BPI** surges to 59 — first expansionary reading in 21 months; all segments improve YoY - **Beer scanner volumes** -1.4% L4W; -5.0% L2W (Easter distortion); ABI and Molson Coors outperform broader market - **Total alcohol** dollar sales $8.1B (L4W ending 4/18), down 2.9% YoY; spirits -6.0%; wine -4.9%; beer -2.0% - **Prepared cocktails** only growth category: dollar sales +4.4%; RTDs +28.8% per Jefferies tracker - **Energy drinks** +7.5% L2W; Alani Nu (Celsius) +51.7%; Ghost +22%; Monster Ultra +11.2% - **NABCA control state spirits** volume +1.2% MoM in March but dollar volume -1.6%; Scotch +11.4% ### Wine Sector - **California acreage** down to 540K acres (-12% in two years); 21K+ acres removed in 12 months - **Scanner data**: wine dollars -4.9%, volume -6.1% (L4W); Josh +4.7%, LaMarca +12.8%; Barefoot -6.1% - **DtC**: March shipment value +5% YoY to $462M (first gain in 12+ months); avg. bottle price record $66.96; Napa +14% in value - **Non-alc wine** only growth segment: +15.8% dollars, +11% volume - **Fraud wave**: James Wellesley sentenced (10 years, $100M scheme); Patrick Briones guilty plea; Jeffry Hill sentenced - SVB: wineries with "very weak" financial health nearly tripled since 2022 ### Trade & Tariffs - **Trump removes all whisky tariffs** (10% on Scotch/Irish whiskey + pending 25% single malt tariff) following UK state visit - SWA estimated £4M/week in lost exports; American Whiskey Association hails "meaningful win" - **Heineken** files suit against US government over tariff overpayment - Strait of Hormuz disruption: crude at $119/bbl; shipping rerouted around Cape of Good Hope; urea costs +50% ### Regulatory & Policy - **California AB 1585**: would require 100% US-grown grapes for "American" wine labels (currently 75% minimum); advances to Appropriations Committee; opposed by Wine Institute and Treasury Wine Estates (Penfolds) - **NY wine-in-grocery debate**: Metropolitan Package Store Association + UFCW oppose; 50K+ jobs cited at risk - **SNAP cuts**: payments -8% since November; 11% of US food/bev sales affected; California, NY, Illinois waiver expirations ahead - **CT dram shop case**: $375K settlement for Hartley & Parker distributor liability case - **WA AG sues** Albertsons/Safeway over $20M in deceptive BOGO pricing - **WHO-backed** "3x35" initiative targeting 50% price increase on alcohol, tobacco, sugary drinks by 2035 - **First Citizens Bank** retiring SVB name in Q4 2026; wine lending division continues ### Consumer & On-Premise - **Gallup**: US adult alcohol consumption at 54% — lowest in 90 years - **On-premise** value velocity +5% YoY; ticket counts +7%; avg. check -2% (belt-tightening) - **Amazon** now #2 US grocer; perishables sales +40x YoY; Prime Day moving to June - **FIFA World Cup** (June 11–July 19): 48 teams, 104 matches, 75% on US soil; ~1B pint global uplift; ABI primary beneficiary (+0.52% volume) - **Michigan spirits** sales down to $1.78B from $1.895B; cannabis substitution cited; Red Wagon Troy purchases -25.4% - **Henkell Freixenet** non-alc products +18% in 2025; assumes Korbel global distribution - **Gen Z** alcohol participation jumps 46% ? 70% in two years - 42% of on-premise consumers likely to try mini cocktails ### Key Takeaway The US beverage alcohol industry is experiencing a once-in-a-generation restructuring across distribution, demand, and consumer behavior. RNDC's collapse is redrawing wholesale geography. Prepared cocktails and RTDs are the only organic growth engine. Wine faces a structural correction. Spirits are contracting outside of value-oriented and RTD segments. Beer has the most constructive near-term setup heading into the FIFA World Cup. And the consumer — squeezed by inflation, drawn to non-alc alternatives and cannabis, and culturally embracing moderation — is fundamentally changing the demand equation for every player in this space.

    1h 2m

  4. APR 24

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | April 24, 2026

    **Week of April 20–24, 2026** ### Key Themes - **Federal cannabis rescheduling** from Schedule I to Schedule III — the most significant US cannabis policy shift since state legalization began, with immediate financial implications for multi-state operators (Trulieve, Curaleaf, Verano, Green Thumb Industries) totaling ~$2B in potential 280E tax relief - **Brown-Forman M&A battle** between Sazerac ($15B all-cash bid) and Pernod Ricard (80% stock / 20% cash merger of equals) — Brown family reportedly favors Pernod for strategic distribution access and greater ownership influence - **Premiumization reversal confirmed** by IWSR: super-premium spirits value down 15% in 2025; total spirits value down 9%; first time volume outperformed value globally - **Craft beer contraction deepens** — 5% production decline in 2025, 1,072 closures in two years — but early 2026 scan data signals potential stabilization - **Consumer trade-down behavior accelerating** — pregaming revival, miniature bottle boom, and on-premise cost avoidance reshaping product demand ### Notable Stories - **Tilray acquires BrewDog** for £33M out of administration (peak valuation: £2B); creditors owed £553.8M; plans for US expansion - **Stone Brewing acquired by Duvel Moortgat USA / Firestone Walker** from Sapporo, which took a $91M goodwill impairment - **Mark Anthony Group (White Claw) acquires Finnish Long Drink** — entering spirits-based RTD segment; FLD at $107.2M in off-premise sales (+23.2% YoY) - **Pernod Ricard Q3**: US sales -12%; total organic +0.1%; exploring India subsidiary IPO that could improve Brown-Forman deal mechanics - **KDP Q1 beat**: Adj. EPS $0.39 vs $0.37 consensus; US Refreshment Beverages +11.9% CC; Ghost brand contributing ~2pts; shares +7.5% - **Heineken Q1**: US beer volumes declined mid-single digits on weak consumer sentiment - **Diageo opens $415M Alabama manufacturing complex** — major US supply chain investment - **Mississippi ABC distribution crisis**: 172,000+ cases backlogged, 25-day delivery times, panic buying, privatization debate intensifying - **RNDC closes South Carolina facility** — 451 layoffs; major distribution tier disruption - **East Coast frost devastation**: worst in a decade; PA vineyards reporting 70% bud destruction; VA seeing 80-90% crop loss - **Treasury Wine Estates Americas**: US volume +9.1% in FQ3; restructuring to regional operations; shares +17% - **Lofted Spirits (Bardstown Bourbon / Green River)**: brands +44% in 2025 but contract production scaling back; leadership change - **Home distillation circuit split**: Fifth Circuit strikes down 1868 ban, Sixth Circuit upholds it — Supreme Court appeal expected - **Hemp beverage regulatory deadline**: November 13, 2026 federal ban looming; multiple competing legislative proposals - **North Carolina "Operation High Octane"**: 28 criminal summonses for illegal rare bourbon secondary market; four lobbyists indicted separately - **$97M wine fraud conviction**: UK national sentenced to 10 years for fictitious Bordeaux Cellars investment scheme - **California AB 1585** advances: would require "American" labeled wines to use 100% American-grown grapes ### Market Data Snapshot (4 weeks ending April 11, NIQ) - **Total beverage alcohol**: -0.6% dollars / -1.3% volume - **Beer**: flat dollars / -1.5% volume - **Spirits**: -4.5% dollars / -3.9% volume - **Wine**: -1.1% dollars / -2.8% volume - **Prepared cocktails/RTD**: +6.7% dollars / +2.0% volume (sole growth category) --- ### Personnel Moves - **Jack Edwards** ? SVP & Chief Sales Officer, Constellation Brands Beer Division (eff. May 18) - **Barry Thompson** ? East Region President, Breakthru Beverage Group (eff. May 1) - **Chris Miller** ? retiring, EVP Sales, Terlato Wine Group - **Pete Marino** ? departing as President, Lofted Spirits (eff. end of June) - **Bennett Glazer** ? passed away April 20; WSWA Executive Vice Chairman; architect of Southern Glazer's creation

    44 min

  5. APR 17

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | April 17, 2026

    **Major M&A & Corporate Moves** - Sazerac tables $15B ($32/share) all-cash bid for Brown-Forman; Pernod Ricard pursuing parallel "merger of equals" talks; family governance structure is key differentiator - Mark Anthony Brands acquires The Finnish Long Drink; spirits-based RTD pivot; brand posted +24% dollar and volume growth over trailing 52 weeks - Uncle Nearest insolvent; receiver marketing all assets; $108M+ loan defaults; targeting going-concern sale by end of Q2 - Southern Glazer's integrates fine wine teams into Signature division; assumes national distribution for Frederick Wildman brands effective May 1 - Jackson Family Wines selects Reyes Beverage Group as exclusive distributor in seven markets tied to Reyes' pending RNDC acquisition - Johnson Brothers expands Stoller Wine Group distribution to nine additional markets - Baker Distributing acquires Calmont Beverage in Vermont; collapses state to two-distributor market; craft brands stranded - Robert Foye takes ~A$1M stake in Treasury Wine Estates; pushes five-point turnaround plan focused on US market **Earnings & Financial** - Pernod Ricard cuts FY26 outlook to –3% to –4% net sales; US organic sales –12%; Q3 group sales €1.945B (–15% reported); travel-retail outlook reversed to full-year decline - PepsiCo Q1 beat: revenue $19.44B (+8.5%); adjusted EPS $1.61 vs. $1.55 consensus; NA foods volume +2%; Gatorade brand refresh announced - Boston Beer hit with $175.5M Ardagh verdict over aluminum can volume shortfall; plans appeal; holds $223M cash, zero debt - Molson Coors faces aluminum cost headwind; TD Cowen cuts FY26 EPS to $4.58 (below consensus $4.72 and guidance); Hold, $43 PT - Constellation Brands: new CEO Nicholas Fink emphasizes "builder to operator" shift; FY26 beer guidance (–1% to +1%) seen as conservative; Pacifico, Modelo Oro, Barrilitos highlighted - Albertsons Q4 net loss of $480.8M on $600M opioid charge; FY26 identical sales guided flat to +1% **Scanner Data & Market Performance** - Easter week (ending April 5): spirits +16% holiday dollars; RTDs +13.1%; wine +9.2%; beer +6.1% — beer lagged all segments - Q1 2026 off-premise: total beer dollars +1.2% YTD; volume –0.5%; Constellation +0.77 share points; A-B +0.14; Molson Coors –0.59; Boston Beer –0.33 - Fastest Q1 growers: Happy Dad +35.1%; Athletic Brewing +19.3% dollars, +25.5% volume - Pacifico +38.5% Easter week; Michelob +16.9%; Smirnoff +15.7%; Cutwater +46%; BuzzBallz +20% - Energy drinks: Celsius/Alani Nu +35.1% L2W (Alani Nu +97.7%); Monster +6.9% but –159bp share; Red Bull +6.4% but –175bp share - CSDs: Coca-Cola +12.1% L4W vs. PepsiCo +0.6%; Easter week Coke +20.1% - NA beer: +17% dollars and volume in Q1, moderating from +26% pace in Q1 2025 **Craft Beer** - BA 2025 production data: craft volume –5.1% to 21.856M barrels; 481 closures vs. 300 openings; 1,072 closures over two years - Sierra Nevada overtakes Boston Beer for #2 craft ranking; Athletic Brewing rises to #6 - Diageo (#5 overall via Guinness growth); Garage Beer and Tivoli Brewing debut in top 50 - Retail dollar sales –3.6% to $27.8B; dollar share held flat at 24.6%; employment –4% to ~189K **Wine** - US wine consumer spending hit record $115.33B (+2.5%) but volume fell –2.4% to 361.8M cases - Wine DTC March value +5% to $462M; volume –4% (improving from –30% Jan, –14% Feb); Napa drove nearly all dollar growth - Wine-at-home CPI: –1.3% YoY in March, deepening from –0.4% for full 2025 - Napa structural crisis: unsold Cab grapes, Alpha Omega foreclosure, Benessere Vineyards heading to auction, fallow vineyard recommendations - Robledo Family Winery files Chapter 11 - Cognac NAFTA shipments –49% in March (vs. +34% Feb); XO –38%; Far East +12% - E&J Gallo launches 200ml Tetra Pak; acquires Whiny Baby brand; 25% of wine drinkers using AI recommendations - DRINKS partners with Forbes for Forbes Wine Club & Shop; Forbes Wine vertical launching summer 2026 - CA AB 1585: would require 100% American grapes for "American" label; bulk imports +19% in 2025 **Buffalo Trace / Ultra-Premium** - Eagle Rare 30 unveiled at $12,500 SRP; oldest age-stated bourbon from Buffalo Trace; Bonhams auction April 24; broader release May **Legal & Regulatory** - FTC Robinson-Patman suit against Southern Glazer's continues; alleges systematic price discrimination favoring chains over independents - Five former Southern Glazer's employees indicted for eight-year bribery scheme targeting Albertsons shelf placement - Napa winemaker Jeffry Hill sentenced for AVA mislabeling fraud - Fifth Circuit strikes down 1868 federal home distillery ban; Commerce Clause left unresolved - Carnival found 60% liable, $300K awarded after 14-shot over-service incident - WHO second industry dialogue: labeling, digital marketing, age verification focus - Mexico Senate weighing mandatory cancer warning labels on alcohol packaging **Consumer & Retail Trends** - Core retail sales +7.05% YoY in March; six-month growth streak; avg. tax refund +11.1% to $3,521 - Numerator: 93% of consumers looking to save; 43% eating out less; 28% cutting grocery spend - Goldman Sachs lowers 2026 discretionary cash inflow forecast to +4.2% - Louis Jadot/Morning Consult: 56% of Americans dating less due to costs; 27% stopped entirely; wine purchase driven by taste and budget over prestige - Wine Opinions: 20% of frequent drinkers drinking less; health concerns primary driver; decline concentrated in at-home consumption - Nicotine pouches reach 29.3% household penetration; RBC finds 6–12% spending overlap with bev-alc — limited competitive threat - 7-Eleven closing 645 NA stores; IPO delayed to FY2027; ~200 food-forward openings partially offset - Chili's surpasses Olive Garden as #2 US casual dining chain; systemwide sales $5.5B (+20.6%); no new restaurants opened **Mississippi Warehouse Crisis** - State's sole wholesale warehouse dysfunction: ~174K cases stranded; five+ liquor stores closed; key brands unavailable for months; replacement facility not expected until 2027 **Vermont Self-Distribution** - H.921 passed Vermont House: would allow brewers to self-distribute up to 5,000 barrels annually; legislature adjourns May 8

    1 hr

  6. APR 10

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | April 10, 2026

    **Major M&A & Corporate Moves** - Sazerac formally approaches Brown-Forman, competing with Pernod Ricard's existing merger-of-equals discussions; BF shares surge ~14% - E&J Gallo acquires Four Roses Bourbon from Kirin for up to $775M — pivoting away from declining wine - Molson Coors' Monaco Cocktails acquisition scrutinized as potentially too small to compete with AB InBev's RTD portfolio - Southern Glazer's acquires Eagle Rock Distributing's Colorado operations; 514 jobs lost across six facilities - No Sleep Beverage launches with three-brand roll-up: Whiskey Del Bac, Nine Banded Whiskey, Ume Plum Liqueur - Scarlet Letter Beverage acquires Black Apple Cider brand assets - Mitchell Wine Group completes ownership succession in Oregon - Sazerac acquires Dirty Shirley RTD, names AJ Bond Distillery in Tennessee **Earnings & Financial Performance** - Constellation Brands beats Q4 estimates (adj. EPS $1.90 vs. $1.72 est.) but withdraws FY2028 guidance; wine & spirits revenue down 58% - Casella Wines (Yellow Tail) posts first annual loss in 13 years at -$5.5M - Treasury Wine Estates carries 60%+ share price decline and $649.4M interim net loss - Penn Brewery files Chapter 11; continues operations **Market Data & Consumer Trends** - Q1 off-premise: total bev-alc dollars -1.5% YTD, volume -2.3%; RTDs the only growth category (+6.1% dollars YTD) - Spirits steepest four-week decline at -5.7% dollars; wine volume worst at -5.6% - 31% of restaurant operators report "severe" alcohol sales declines; 75% of consumers cite price as primary reason - US adult drinking rate falls to 54% in 2025 — lowest in ~90 years of Gallup tracking - Fine dining wine locations down 66%+ since 2017 - $40B e-commerce "discovery-to-purchase gap" identified by DRINKS platform - Distributors prioritizing spirits (54%) and RTDs (46%) for portfolio additions; 62% cutting beer SKUs, 54% specifically cutting craft **Category Spotlights** - Craft beer reverses to negative in March after two months of gains; -0.3% YTD dollars - Domestic beer reclaims 51% on-premise volume share; craft loses share in all four US regions - Non-alcoholic beer: +9.5% dollars off-premise, +15.1% in Circana 12-week window - Athletic Brewing: +20.7% dollars, +25.9% volume in four-week period - Kentucky bourbon inventories at record 16.1M barrels; MGP idles two distilleries - PepsiCo's Blue Cloud launches alcoholic Bubly, expands Hard Lipton Zero Sugar **Regulatory & Legal** - FTC v. Southern Glazer's tests Robinson-Patman Act enforcement standards - DTC beer shipping supported by 63% of legal-age adults; legal in only 11 states + D.C. - Mississippi ABC warehouse backlog at 170,000 cases; emergency legislation fails - New York wine-in-grocery bills introduced; neither passed - Tennessee mandates drug-testing strips at all bars; drink spiking now a Class D felony - Revised metal tariffs restructured to full import value basis; 50% on primary metal goods - SEC sues Drake's Organic Spirits founder for $2.6M in alleged sham sales - San Antonio Winery files trademark suit over "Rosa 32" brand - Molson Coors faces product liability suit over Miller Lite bottle defect - Limestone Farms Distillery faces foreclosure; co-owner indicted - Bang Energy founder blocked from selling Florida Keys property in ongoing fraud case

    44 min

  7. APR 3

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | April 03, 2026

    ## SHOW NOTES **Top Stories** - **Pernod Ricard & Brown-Forman confirm merger talks** — potential $31B combined entity; Citi puts deal odds at 50/50; Jefferies projects $450M in synergies; governance and balance sheet challenges remain - **E. & J. Gallo closes $775M Four Roses acquisition** — highest price ever for a Kentucky bourbon distillery; returns brand to US family ownership after 83 years - **Diageo North America CEO Sally Grimes departs suddenly** — replaced by 30-year veteran John O'Keefe; comes as Diageo US spirits sales fall 11.6% - **Southern Glazer's acquires ~22M ABI beer cases in under a year** — Clare Rose, Eagle Rock, and ABI's NY distributorship; building parallel beer empire - **Reyes Beverage Group acquires RNDC operations across 11 markets** — names Brian Albenze as market president **Market Data** - US bev-alc volume fell 5% in 2025 (IWSR); off-premise dollar sales down 2.7% in latest 4-week period (NIQ) - Spirits ex-prepared cocktails: -6.1% dollars, -4.8% volume - Wine: -5.1% dollars, -5.9% volume - Beer: -1.3% dollars, -3.0% volume (improving sequentially) - Prepared cocktails: +5.4% dollars — sole growth category - Spirits-based RTDs: +35% value, +36% volume - RTD share of total bev-alc: 6% (2019) ? 13% (2025) - Only 54% of Americans report drinking alcohol (Gallup — new low) **American Whiskey** - Production down 28% YoY through August 2025; lowest since 2018 - 16.1M aging barrels in Kentucky — all-time record - Exports down 19% ($250M decline); EU exports -35%, Canada -70% - Jim Beam, Diageo, Brown-Forman all curtailing production; MGP contract business cut by more than half - Green River lays off head distiller; LF Heritage ordered into foreclosure; Goodwood seeks merger **Flavored Bev-Alc Power Rankings** - Top 10 vendors control 81.2% of dollar sales - BuzzBallz: $794M (+50.1%); Cutwater: $585M (+100.5%); BeatBox: $413M (+31.4%); Surfside: $191M (+115%) - High-ABV (8%+) sub-segment: 36.9% of total, up 19.3% to $5.5B **Wine** - California 2025 crush: 2.62M tons (above expectations); 18 months of supply projected - 38M US beer/spirits drinkers cite taste aversion as barrier to wine - DtC wines above $50 = 71% of total shipment value (up from 52% in 2020) - Imported wine volumes down ~8% Oct-Jan vs. domestic wines down 3% **M&A & Deals** - Tilray completes BrewDog acquisition at £41M (~$54.5M) - Firestone Walker acquires Trumer Pils US rights from Gambrinus - Hood River Distillers acquires Crater Lake Spirits - Constellation acquires remaining HOPWTR stake - KDP completes JDE Peet's acquisition; planning separation into Coffee Co. and Beverage Co. - Sysco acquires Jetro Restaurant Depot for $29.1B - Breakthru Beverage enters hemp THC beverage distribution in Minnesota **Key Consumer & Macro Signals** - Jefferies Consumer Pulse: 89 (lowest since Nov 2023) - 31% of drinkers cite financial pressure as moderation driver - GLP-1 drugs: 23% of users drink less dining out; 39% drink less overall - Gen Z unemployment: 9.2%; cocktail prices exceeding $20 dampening on-premise occasions **Legal & Regulatory** - Oz Trading permanently enjoined from counterfeit Modelo/Corona labels - Tito's Vodka ordered to pay $749K Maine back taxes - ABI pays $2.3M Fairfield brewery emissions penalty - TTB recommends delaying Q1 2026 CBMA claims due to data error - Colorado bev-alc fee bill defeated in committee - Treasury Wine Estates: shares down 63%; near-$1B US asset write-down flagged

    45 min

  8. MAR 27

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | March 27, 2026

    **Week of March 24–28, 2026** **Top Stories:** - **Pernod Ricard & Brown-Forman confirm active merger discussions** — potential "merger of equals" that would create joint #2 US spirits company; estimated $450M in cost synergies; Jefferies, TD Cowen, and ROTH weigh in on strategic logic, valuation, and Brown family governance hurdles - **Uncle Nearest crisis deepens** — receiver seeks gag order and $75K sanctions against founder Fawn Weaver; $200M+ in total debts; employee resignations, distributor payment delays, and stalled asset sales - **Stoli/Amber Beverage Group confirms loan default** — formal breach of loan note conditions amid sanctions, cyberattack fallout, Stoli USA insolvency, and declining global spirits demand - **Molson Coors acquires Atomic Brands (Monaco Cocktails)** — boldest RTD move yet; Monaco is #5 US RTD brand with accelerating growth (+24.8% dollar growth in latest week); 70,000 retail doors; part of Horizon 2030 strategy - **Tennessee Distilling Group acquires Waterford Distillery (Ireland)** — cross-border deal for distressed Irish whiskey assets; HSBC-appointed receiver facilitated sale **Market Data & Trends:** - NBWA Beer Purchasers' Index hits 50 — first expansion-level reading in 20 months; Imports (54), FMB/Seltzer (53), Below Premium (52) all above 50 - NIQ off-premise: total alcohol -2.7% dollars, -3.0% volume (L4W ending 3/14); Prepared Cocktails only positive category at +4.5% dollars - NABCA February: spirits volume -1.4%, dollar volume -3.4%; wine volume -4.7%; RTDs and Tequila only positive growth categories - US spirits tax-paid shipments -9.4% YoY in January — 15th consecutive month of moderation - Non-alcoholic beverages +22% YoY, reaching $925M in off-premise sales; 92% of NA buyers still purchase alcohol **Consumer Shifts:** - LendingTree: only 56% of Americans currently consume alcohol; Gen Z at 53% non-drinking; 27% report drinking less YoY - GLP-1 drugs: ~1 in 8 US adults currently on medication; JPM projects 30M+ users by 2030; potential $30B–$55B annual demand elimination - On-premise vs. off-premise divergence highlighted at Constellation Gold Network Summit (HMSHost, Kroger, RaceTrac insights) - Wine club growth decelerates to 2% (down from 11% peak in 2018); lifestyle-integrated models emerging (Ashes & Diamonds, Wente) **Distribution Consolidation:** - KEG 1 acquires Pine State Trading Co. (Maine/NH) — 7.9M cases, 350+ suppliers; second deal of 2026 - Southern Glazer's acquires Eagle Rock Distributing (CO) and Clare Rose (NY) - Reyes to absorb RNDC operations across 11 markets (AZ, FL, TX, VA, DC, others) — closing by end of May - AB InBev acquires Advance Beverage Company (Bakersfield, CA) - Columbia Distributing acquires Point Blank Distributing (OR) — adds ~1M cases - Teamsters Local 79 wins vote at SGWS Lakeland, FL facility **Wine Industry:** - US winery count falls 3% — first broad decline in decades; CA crush smallest since 1994 - Willamette Valley Vineyards: net sales -6.5%, operating income swings to -$1.4M loss - Roco Winery (Marzotto family) acquires Francis Ford Coppola's Domaine Lumineux in Dundee Hills, OR - Silicon Valley Bank projects "bumpy bottom" in wine demand around 2027–2028 **Other Notable Stories:** - Celsius Holdings: stock -18% in past month; Citi calls it a buying opportunity; SKU rationalization driving short-term scanner data weakness; Costco Kirkland launch seen as limited threat - Fever-Tree: profit -16% in FY2025; US revenue +6% at constant currency; Molson Coors partnership positioned as growth lever; non-tonic products now 45% of revenue - BofA commodity trendspotter: spot inflation +3.7% YoY, geopolitical risk not yet reflected - ADI/DISCUS launch "Ship My Spirits" DTC campaign; Iowa bills advancing - DTC beer shipping survey: 81% of craft drinkers support expanded access; 72% would spend $50+/month - Michigan AG sues Buon Vino LLC for unlicensed wine shipping — 84 confirmed violations, $25K per violation sought - Bardstown Bourbon Co. files counterclaim against former HR VP - TGI Fridays bankruptcy: court approves solicitation of creditor votes; confirmation hearing May 1 - ACSA: founding CEO Margie Lehrman retires; Emily Pennington named new CEO effective May 1 - NABCA: Kristin Beltzer (Michigan LCC) elected incoming Chair-Elect - U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 55.5, down from 56.6; inflation expectations stall at 3.4% **Key Takeaways:** 1. The Pernod–Brown-Forman merger talks and Molson Coors' Monaco acquisition both signal that the era of organic growth in US beverage alcohol is giving way to an M&A-driven consolidation cycle across spirits, beer, and RTDs. 2. Spirits sector distress (Uncle Nearest, Stoli, Amber, Waterford) is systemic — creating both brand exposure risk and acquisition opportunities for well-capitalized operators. 3. Beer's BPI recovery and RTD resilience contrast sharply with ongoing spirits and wine volume declines, suggesting a widening performance gap between categories. 4. GLP-1 drugs, generational sobriety trends, and macro confidence erosion represent compounding structural headwinds that will reshape demand over the next 3–5 years — requiring portfolio diversification, non-alcoholic investment, and DTC channel development now. 5. Distribution consolidation (KEG 1, SGWS, Reyes, AB InBev) is accelerating and compressing the independent distributor landscape, making route-to-market control an increasingly critical competitive advantage.

    26 min
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About

Stay ahead of the trends shaping the world of wine, spirits, beer, and non-alcoholic drinks. Each episode delivers a quick, insightful look at the latest developments in the beverage industry—from distributor shake-ups and retail strategies to brand launches, consumer trends, and regulatory updates. Whether you’re a retailer, supplier, or industry enthusiast, Beverage Business Briefing keeps you informed and ready to make smarter decisions in today’s fast-changing marketplace.

Information

  • Creator
    Carlos DeOliveira
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    34
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2026 Carlos DeOliveira
  • Show Website
    Beverage Business Briefing

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