Beverage Business Briefing

Carlos DeOliveira

Stay ahead of the trends shaping the world of wine, spirits, beer, and non-alcoholic drinks. Each episode delivers a quick, insightful look at the latest developments in the beverage industry—from distributor shake-ups and retail strategies to brand launches, consumer trends, and regulatory updates. Whether you’re a retailer, supplier, or industry enthusiast, Beverage Business Briefing keeps you informed and ready to make smarter decisions in today’s fast-changing marketplace.

  1. 10H AGO

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | April 10, 2026

    **Major M&A & Corporate Moves** - Sazerac formally approaches Brown-Forman, competing with Pernod Ricard's existing merger-of-equals discussions; BF shares surge ~14% - E&J Gallo acquires Four Roses Bourbon from Kirin for up to $775M — pivoting away from declining wine - Molson Coors' Monaco Cocktails acquisition scrutinized as potentially too small to compete with AB InBev's RTD portfolio - Southern Glazer's acquires Eagle Rock Distributing's Colorado operations; 514 jobs lost across six facilities - No Sleep Beverage launches with three-brand roll-up: Whiskey Del Bac, Nine Banded Whiskey, Ume Plum Liqueur - Scarlet Letter Beverage acquires Black Apple Cider brand assets - Mitchell Wine Group completes ownership succession in Oregon - Sazerac acquires Dirty Shirley RTD, names AJ Bond Distillery in Tennessee **Earnings & Financial Performance** - Constellation Brands beats Q4 estimates (adj. EPS $1.90 vs. $1.72 est.) but withdraws FY2028 guidance; wine & spirits revenue down 58% - Casella Wines (Yellow Tail) posts first annual loss in 13 years at -$5.5M - Treasury Wine Estates carries 60%+ share price decline and $649.4M interim net loss - Penn Brewery files Chapter 11; continues operations **Market Data & Consumer Trends** - Q1 off-premise: total bev-alc dollars -1.5% YTD, volume -2.3%; RTDs the only growth category (+6.1% dollars YTD) - Spirits steepest four-week decline at -5.7% dollars; wine volume worst at -5.6% - 31% of restaurant operators report "severe" alcohol sales declines; 75% of consumers cite price as primary reason - US adult drinking rate falls to 54% in 2025 — lowest in ~90 years of Gallup tracking - Fine dining wine locations down 66%+ since 2017 - $40B e-commerce "discovery-to-purchase gap" identified by DRINKS platform - Distributors prioritizing spirits (54%) and RTDs (46%) for portfolio additions; 62% cutting beer SKUs, 54% specifically cutting craft **Category Spotlights** - Craft beer reverses to negative in March after two months of gains; -0.3% YTD dollars - Domestic beer reclaims 51% on-premise volume share; craft loses share in all four US regions - Non-alcoholic beer: +9.5% dollars off-premise, +15.1% in Circana 12-week window - Athletic Brewing: +20.7% dollars, +25.9% volume in four-week period - Kentucky bourbon inventories at record 16.1M barrels; MGP idles two distilleries - PepsiCo's Blue Cloud launches alcoholic Bubly, expands Hard Lipton Zero Sugar **Regulatory & Legal** - FTC v. Southern Glazer's tests Robinson-Patman Act enforcement standards - DTC beer shipping supported by 63% of legal-age adults; legal in only 11 states + D.C. - Mississippi ABC warehouse backlog at 170,000 cases; emergency legislation fails - New York wine-in-grocery bills introduced; neither passed - Tennessee mandates drug-testing strips at all bars; drink spiking now a Class D felony - Revised metal tariffs restructured to full import value basis; 50% on primary metal goods - SEC sues Drake's Organic Spirits founder for $2.6M in alleged sham sales - San Antonio Winery files trademark suit over "Rosa 32" brand - Molson Coors faces product liability suit over Miller Lite bottle defect - Limestone Farms Distillery faces foreclosure; co-owner indicted - Bang Energy founder blocked from selling Florida Keys property in ongoing fraud case

    44 min

  2. APR 3

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | April 03, 2026

    ## SHOW NOTES **Top Stories** - **Pernod Ricard & Brown-Forman confirm merger talks** — potential $31B combined entity; Citi puts deal odds at 50/50; Jefferies projects $450M in synergies; governance and balance sheet challenges remain - **E. & J. Gallo closes $775M Four Roses acquisition** — highest price ever for a Kentucky bourbon distillery; returns brand to US family ownership after 83 years - **Diageo North America CEO Sally Grimes departs suddenly** — replaced by 30-year veteran John O'Keefe; comes as Diageo US spirits sales fall 11.6% - **Southern Glazer's acquires ~22M ABI beer cases in under a year** — Clare Rose, Eagle Rock, and ABI's NY distributorship; building parallel beer empire - **Reyes Beverage Group acquires RNDC operations across 11 markets** — names Brian Albenze as market president **Market Data** - US bev-alc volume fell 5% in 2025 (IWSR); off-premise dollar sales down 2.7% in latest 4-week period (NIQ) - Spirits ex-prepared cocktails: -6.1% dollars, -4.8% volume - Wine: -5.1% dollars, -5.9% volume - Beer: -1.3% dollars, -3.0% volume (improving sequentially) - Prepared cocktails: +5.4% dollars — sole growth category - Spirits-based RTDs: +35% value, +36% volume - RTD share of total bev-alc: 6% (2019) ? 13% (2025) - Only 54% of Americans report drinking alcohol (Gallup — new low) **American Whiskey** - Production down 28% YoY through August 2025; lowest since 2018 - 16.1M aging barrels in Kentucky — all-time record - Exports down 19% ($250M decline); EU exports -35%, Canada -70% - Jim Beam, Diageo, Brown-Forman all curtailing production; MGP contract business cut by more than half - Green River lays off head distiller; LF Heritage ordered into foreclosure; Goodwood seeks merger **Flavored Bev-Alc Power Rankings** - Top 10 vendors control 81.2% of dollar sales - BuzzBallz: $794M (+50.1%); Cutwater: $585M (+100.5%); BeatBox: $413M (+31.4%); Surfside: $191M (+115%) - High-ABV (8%+) sub-segment: 36.9% of total, up 19.3% to $5.5B **Wine** - California 2025 crush: 2.62M tons (above expectations); 18 months of supply projected - 38M US beer/spirits drinkers cite taste aversion as barrier to wine - DtC wines above $50 = 71% of total shipment value (up from 52% in 2020) - Imported wine volumes down ~8% Oct-Jan vs. domestic wines down 3% **M&A & Deals** - Tilray completes BrewDog acquisition at £41M (~$54.5M) - Firestone Walker acquires Trumer Pils US rights from Gambrinus - Hood River Distillers acquires Crater Lake Spirits - Constellation acquires remaining HOPWTR stake - KDP completes JDE Peet's acquisition; planning separation into Coffee Co. and Beverage Co. - Sysco acquires Jetro Restaurant Depot for $29.1B - Breakthru Beverage enters hemp THC beverage distribution in Minnesota **Key Consumer & Macro Signals** - Jefferies Consumer Pulse: 89 (lowest since Nov 2023) - 31% of drinkers cite financial pressure as moderation driver - GLP-1 drugs: 23% of users drink less dining out; 39% drink less overall - Gen Z unemployment: 9.2%; cocktail prices exceeding $20 dampening on-premise occasions **Legal & Regulatory** - Oz Trading permanently enjoined from counterfeit Modelo/Corona labels - Tito's Vodka ordered to pay $749K Maine back taxes - ABI pays $2.3M Fairfield brewery emissions penalty - TTB recommends delaying Q1 2026 CBMA claims due to data error - Colorado bev-alc fee bill defeated in committee - Treasury Wine Estates: shares down 63%; near-$1B US asset write-down flagged

    45 min

  3. MAR 27

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | March 27, 2026

    **Week of March 24–28, 2026** **Top Stories:** - **Pernod Ricard & Brown-Forman confirm active merger discussions** — potential "merger of equals" that would create joint #2 US spirits company; estimated $450M in cost synergies; Jefferies, TD Cowen, and ROTH weigh in on strategic logic, valuation, and Brown family governance hurdles - **Uncle Nearest crisis deepens** — receiver seeks gag order and $75K sanctions against founder Fawn Weaver; $200M+ in total debts; employee resignations, distributor payment delays, and stalled asset sales - **Stoli/Amber Beverage Group confirms loan default** — formal breach of loan note conditions amid sanctions, cyberattack fallout, Stoli USA insolvency, and declining global spirits demand - **Molson Coors acquires Atomic Brands (Monaco Cocktails)** — boldest RTD move yet; Monaco is #5 US RTD brand with accelerating growth (+24.8% dollar growth in latest week); 70,000 retail doors; part of Horizon 2030 strategy - **Tennessee Distilling Group acquires Waterford Distillery (Ireland)** — cross-border deal for distressed Irish whiskey assets; HSBC-appointed receiver facilitated sale **Market Data & Trends:** - NBWA Beer Purchasers' Index hits 50 — first expansion-level reading in 20 months; Imports (54), FMB/Seltzer (53), Below Premium (52) all above 50 - NIQ off-premise: total alcohol -2.7% dollars, -3.0% volume (L4W ending 3/14); Prepared Cocktails only positive category at +4.5% dollars - NABCA February: spirits volume -1.4%, dollar volume -3.4%; wine volume -4.7%; RTDs and Tequila only positive growth categories - US spirits tax-paid shipments -9.4% YoY in January — 15th consecutive month of moderation - Non-alcoholic beverages +22% YoY, reaching $925M in off-premise sales; 92% of NA buyers still purchase alcohol **Consumer Shifts:** - LendingTree: only 56% of Americans currently consume alcohol; Gen Z at 53% non-drinking; 27% report drinking less YoY - GLP-1 drugs: ~1 in 8 US adults currently on medication; JPM projects 30M+ users by 2030; potential $30B–$55B annual demand elimination - On-premise vs. off-premise divergence highlighted at Constellation Gold Network Summit (HMSHost, Kroger, RaceTrac insights) - Wine club growth decelerates to 2% (down from 11% peak in 2018); lifestyle-integrated models emerging (Ashes & Diamonds, Wente) **Distribution Consolidation:** - KEG 1 acquires Pine State Trading Co. (Maine/NH) — 7.9M cases, 350+ suppliers; second deal of 2026 - Southern Glazer's acquires Eagle Rock Distributing (CO) and Clare Rose (NY) - Reyes to absorb RNDC operations across 11 markets (AZ, FL, TX, VA, DC, others) — closing by end of May - AB InBev acquires Advance Beverage Company (Bakersfield, CA) - Columbia Distributing acquires Point Blank Distributing (OR) — adds ~1M cases - Teamsters Local 79 wins vote at SGWS Lakeland, FL facility **Wine Industry:** - US winery count falls 3% — first broad decline in decades; CA crush smallest since 1994 - Willamette Valley Vineyards: net sales -6.5%, operating income swings to -$1.4M loss - Roco Winery (Marzotto family) acquires Francis Ford Coppola's Domaine Lumineux in Dundee Hills, OR - Silicon Valley Bank projects "bumpy bottom" in wine demand around 2027–2028 **Other Notable Stories:** - Celsius Holdings: stock -18% in past month; Citi calls it a buying opportunity; SKU rationalization driving short-term scanner data weakness; Costco Kirkland launch seen as limited threat - Fever-Tree: profit -16% in FY2025; US revenue +6% at constant currency; Molson Coors partnership positioned as growth lever; non-tonic products now 45% of revenue - BofA commodity trendspotter: spot inflation +3.7% YoY, geopolitical risk not yet reflected - ADI/DISCUS launch "Ship My Spirits" DTC campaign; Iowa bills advancing - DTC beer shipping survey: 81% of craft drinkers support expanded access; 72% would spend $50+/month - Michigan AG sues Buon Vino LLC for unlicensed wine shipping — 84 confirmed violations, $25K per violation sought - Bardstown Bourbon Co. files counterclaim against former HR VP - TGI Fridays bankruptcy: court approves solicitation of creditor votes; confirmation hearing May 1 - ACSA: founding CEO Margie Lehrman retires; Emily Pennington named new CEO effective May 1 - NABCA: Kristin Beltzer (Michigan LCC) elected incoming Chair-Elect - U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: 55.5, down from 56.6; inflation expectations stall at 3.4% **Key Takeaways:** 1. The Pernod–Brown-Forman merger talks and Molson Coors' Monaco acquisition both signal that the era of organic growth in US beverage alcohol is giving way to an M&A-driven consolidation cycle across spirits, beer, and RTDs. 2. Spirits sector distress (Uncle Nearest, Stoli, Amber, Waterford) is systemic — creating both brand exposure risk and acquisition opportunities for well-capitalized operators. 3. Beer's BPI recovery and RTD resilience contrast sharply with ongoing spirits and wine volume declines, suggesting a widening performance gap between categories. 4. GLP-1 drugs, generational sobriety trends, and macro confidence erosion represent compounding structural headwinds that will reshape demand over the next 3–5 years — requiring portfolio diversification, non-alcoholic investment, and DTC channel development now. 5. Distribution consolidation (KEG 1, SGWS, Reyes, AB InBev) is accelerating and compressing the independent distributor landscape, making route-to-market control an increasingly critical competitive advantage.

    26 min

  4. MAR 20

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | March 20, 2026

    **Major Themes This Week:** - **Distribution consolidation accelerates:** Reyes Beverage Group expands RNDC acquisition to 10 states plus D.C.; SGWS acquires Clare Rose on Long Island; A-B InBev acquires Advance Beverage in Bakersfield, CA; SGWS faces federal indictment of former executives - **Off-premise sales still declining:** Total alcohol dollars down -2.4% (NIQ 4-week) to -3.4% (TD Cowen 2-week); spirits ex-RTDs deepest at -6.6%; wine -5.3%; beer most resilient at -0.8% - **RTDs are the only growth category:** Prepared cocktails +5.4% in dollars; Cutwater +116.3%, Surfside +240.3%, BuzzBallz +32.3% - **Non-alcoholic beer surging:** +18.1% in latest Circana week, +9.1% in NIQ 4-week data **Notable Company Moves:** - **Constellation Brands:** Modelo accelerated to +6.9%, Pacifico +33.2%; Jefferies raised price target to $162; Hispanic consumer sentiment improving - **Tilray:** Acquiring BrewDog's US assets (Columbus brewery/pubs, Las Vegas brewpub), completing global BrewDog brand ownership - **Sazerac:** Acquired Dirty Shirley RTD brand, adding to portfolio alongside BuzzBallz, Buffalo Trace, Fireball, Southern Comfort, SVEDKA - **Boston Beer:** New $25M share buyback plan; $50M total with prior plan; ~$215M remaining on $1.6B authorization - **Brown-Forman:** Named Jim Peters (ex-Whirlpool) as new CFO, effective March 31; focus on operational discipline - **Diageo:** New CEO Dave Lewis receives first LTIP; Jefferies models -12% North America EBIT in F27; shares at 25% discount to staples peers - **Celsius/Alani Nu:** Combined share gained 141 bps to 15.7%; Alani Nu alone +58.9% **Supply & Trade:** - **California grape crush:** 2.76M tons — lowest since 1994; 23% below 5-year average; 57,000 acres removed; crop value down 16% to $2.414B - **Italian wine exports to US:** Down -9.2% in value; H2 2025 down -23%; bottled red wine -28% - **US TBA inventories:** Hit lowest level since Sept 2022 but remain 37% above 2019 average; prolonged normalization expected **Consumer & Macro:** - **Health-forward demand:** 58% of consumers scrutinize ingredients; 52% pay premium for wellness; 66% choosing lower-sugar options (EY survey) - **NRF projects +4.4% US retail sales growth** in 2026 to $5.6 trillion; premium segments expected to outpace value - **Scope Ratings:** Beer industry in "long-term structural stagnation"; pricing power exhausted **Regulatory:** - **New York wine-in-grocery legislation** faces unified opposition from UFCW and Metropolitan Package Store Association **Legal:** - **Uncle Nearest:** Bankruptcy petitions dismissed; receiver alleges $200M+ in debt; potential $75K sanctions against founder Fawn Weaver; receivership expansion pending; defamation countersuit filed

    41 min

  5. MAR 13

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | March 13, 2026

    **Key Themes This Week:** - US alcohol consumption hits record-low 54% of adults; structural demographic shift, not cyclical downturn - Off-premise dollar sales declining across nearly all segments; prepared cocktails and RTDs the sole growth category - Non-alcoholic beer continues double-digit growth but shows early signs of maturation **Major Company Moves:** - **Reyes Beverage Group** expands RNDC acquisition to 11 states (adding AZ, CO, LA, OK, TX); closing expected May 2026 - **Tilray Brands** acquires global BrewDog brand, Scottish brewery, and 11 UK pubs for ~$44M (~$66/bbl) - **Diageo** outlines RTD-first growth strategy under new CEO Sir Dave Lewis; meaningful results not expected before FY2027 - **Brown-Forman** downgraded by Bernstein to Market Perform; wins Sixth Circuit labor ruling invalidating NLRB Cemex standard - **A-B InBev** shares near five-year highs; spirits portfolio now 3% of US revenue, growing at 2x category rate - **Boston Beer** closing Angel City brewery in LA (66 layoffs); brand sale has not materialized - **Mercer Wine Estates** acquires four Washington wine brands from Avallé - **Johnson Brothers** expands distribution partnership with Maisons Marques & Domaines into Colorado - **Barboursville Vineyards** (VA) sold to investor group at 50th anniversary **Wine Industry Crisis:** - $1B+ revenue loss in 2025; ~6M case production drop; CA vineyard footprint down to ~477K acres - Jackson Family Wines, E&J Gallo, Mission Bell Winery closures and layoffs - DTC shipments fell 10% in 2024 — steepest decline ever recorded - Wine at-home CPI in deflation at -1.5% YoY **Craft Beer Update:** - YTD craft dollar sales cooled to +0.3% (from +2.3% in Jan); volume now -1.6% - Olfactory Brewing (SF) and Rotten Little Bastard (SC) filed Chapter 7 bankruptcy - Standouts: Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (+59.7% L4W), Georgetown Bodhizafa (+17.5%), Athletic Brewing (+18.3%) **Legal & Regulatory:** - Federal grand jury indicts five former Southern Glazer's employees in Albertsons bribery scheme (2016–2024) - Uncle Nearest receivership deepens; Jay-Z's $20M secret loan surfaces; Farm Credit alleges fraud; federal ruling pending - SCOTUS poised to rule on Arizona DTC wine shipping law - New York opens retail-to-retail wine and liquor sales (up to 6 bottles/week) - Florida Supreme Court ends 2026 cannabis ballot initiative - Sixth Circuit Ream v. Treasury case could legalize home distilling **Macro & Consumer Data:** - Feb nonfarm payrolls: -92K; unemployment: 4.4%; CPI near 3% - Wells Fargo expects 50bps of Fed rate cuts (June, September) - NFIB Small Business Optimism declined for second straight month - Kroger, Costco, BJ's post mixed retail results - PwC: consumers willing to pay ~9.7% sustainability premium - University of Evansville study: alcohol brand associations are culturally learned, not physiological **Big Takeaways:** 1. Portfolio diversification across RTD, NA, and spirits is now a structural imperative — not a growth strategy 2. Wine's contraction is simultaneous across DTC and traditional distribution; surviving producers must pivot to experiential and premium DTC models 3. The Reyes-RNDC deal reshapes middle-tier economics across 11 states; affected suppliers must engage proactively before May close 4. Legal and compliance risk is elevated on multiple fronts; TTB trade practice enforcement should be treated as an active organizational priority

    39 min

  6. MAR 6

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | March 06, 2026

    **Key Themes This Week:** - Structural US alcohol market contraction deepens across spirits, beer, and wine - RTD/Prepared Cocktails surge 30%+ as the only consistent growth category - Southern Glazer's federal bribery indictment sends shockwaves through distribution - Diageo abandons premiumization playbook; cuts hospitality team and dividend - Tequila growth story stalls: Casamigos -24%, Jose Cuervo -15% - Wine industry in worst structural correction in decades **Major Corporate Moves:** - AB InBev closes BeatBox acquisition for up to $490M - Four Loko parent Phusion Projects exploring ~$400M sale via JPMorgan - Tilray acquires BrewDog global IP and UK operations for £33M - Brown-Forman ends Pabst FMB partnership, brings RTDs in-house - Constellation Brands targets 75M cases for Pacifico by 2030 **Earnings & Financial Highlights:** - Brown-Forman Q3 beats estimates but flags 100-150bps FY27 margin headwind; shares hit 52-week low - Becle Q4 net sales -14.1%; US/Canada revenue -8.4% - Campari full-year organic sales +2.4%; adjusted operating earnings +5.3% - Monster Beverage writes off $232M of $330M CANarchy investment - Treasury Wine Estates takes ~$550M US impairment **Market Data (NIQ through Feb 21):** - Total alcohol: -2.3% dollars, -3.3% volume - Spirits ex-RTD: -4.9% dollars, -3.7% volume - Beer/FMB/Cider/Seltzer: -2.2% dollars, -3.8% volume - Wine: -3.8% dollars, -5.1% volume - Spirits-based RTDs: +30.3% dollars, +33.5% volume - Energy drinks: +16.6% dollars, +10.2% volume **Brand Standouts:** - Cutwater +160%, Sun Cruiser +247%, Surfside +87% (RTD) - Pacifico +19% volume (7th consecutive year of double-digit growth) - Victoria +16% depletions; Michelob Ultra +4.4% - Alani Nu +81.1% (energy); Ghost Energy +37.6% - Bud Light -9.7%; Heineken Original -13%; Casamigos -23.8% **Wine & Spirits Industry Distress:** - 40,000+ California vineyard acres targeted for removal - Gallo, Constellation, Jackson Family all closing facilities - Breakthru Beverage: 500 layoffs; Speyside Bourbon Cooperage: facility closure - Uncle Nearest: $220M+ in alleged debts; receivership deepens - Aloria Vineyards files Chapter 11; Arista Winery ends production **Consumer Trends:** - 54% of US adults report drinking — lowest in ~90 years - Weekly consumption: 2.8 drinks, lowest since 1996 - 53% believe moderate drinking is harmful (up from 28% in 2018) - Private label liquor unit sales +4.4%; Gen Z share rising rapidly **Regulatory & Legal:** - TTB issues AI advertising guidance for beverage alcohol - Bardstown Bourbon faces whistleblower discrimination lawsuit - Mississippi ABC warehouse disruption strains retailers statewide - Former Napa winemaker sentenced for appellation fraud

    32 min

  7. FEB 27

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | February 27, 2026

    **Key Themes This Week:** - US bev-alc market showing tentative recovery; January 2026 comps turned positive for first time in over a year - RTD cocktails dominate growth: spirits-based RTDs +39.4%, wine-based RTDs +23.7% - Premium spirits correction deepening: Diageo US sales -6.8%, MGP brown goods -52% - Generational consumption shift accelerating; binge drinking among 21-34 year olds down ~3.9 million people over decade - Regulatory uncertainty compounding across THC, tariffs, distribution, and state-level wine sales **Notable Stories:** - **Diageo** — New CEO Dave Lewis plans sweeping leadership overhaul; halves dividend; signals pivot away from premiumization; shares drop ~13% - **MGP Ingredients** — FY25 sales collapse 24%; 2026 guidance misses consensus by wide margin; shares fall 21% intraday - **Uncle Nearest** — Receivership escalates; ~$200M total debt; emergency asset sales underway; March federal court ruling expected - **Stoli Group** — Amber Beverage Group confirms default; no permanent CEO since July 2025 - **Molson Coors** — Horizon 2030 strategy with $450M savings program; BofA downgrades to Underperform; M&A targets discussed - **Boston Beer** — Q4 loss narrows; gross margin improves 360bps; 2026 guidance below consensus; tariff uncertainty flagged - **Celsius Holdings** — Q4 revenue +117% YoY on Alani Nu strength; competitive pressure on bev-alc among younger consumers - **Southern Glazer's & Breakthru Beverage** — Both announce workforce reductions - **THC beverages** — Federal ban effective November 2026; industry mobilizing for legislative fix before summer recess - **US wine exports** — Collapse 33.5% to $850M; Canada exports down 76.8% - **California wine** — Major closures at Jackson Family Wines, Gallo, Foley, Constellation; Treasury Wine Estates pauses dividend - **NA beer** — Growth decelerating; Michelob Ultra Zero +210%, Athletic Brewing holds lead but growth slows - **Convenience stores** — Spirits +5.4%; THC beverages +134% to $200.5M; retailers cutting alcohol SKUs for THC shelf space - **Supreme Court tariff ruling** — IEEPA authority struck down; effective rate drops to ~13%; Section 301 investigations pending - **KDP/JDEP** — Acquisition targeting early April close; ~$9B debt, $8.5B equity, $4.5B convertible preferred - **Key brand performers** — Cutwater, BuzzBallz, Surfside, BeatBox, Sun Cruiser (RTD); Modelo, Pacifico, Michelob Ultra (beer) - **Distribution** — Barton & Guestier signs five-year exclusive with Southern Glazer's; Mississippi ABC warehouse in crisis - **People** — Daniel Duckhorn passes at 87; Melanie Batchelor named William Grant US President; Robert Cullins elevated at Illva Saronno; Brandon Lieb named Aguasol CEO - **Retail** — Sprouts Farmers Market plans 40+ new stores; NY wine-in-grocery legislation opposed; CA distribution law challenged - **Compliance** — TTB "bottle marrying" prohibition gains national attention; risk reminder for on-premise operators - **Wholesale inventories** — 43% above 2019 average per Evercore ISI; inventory-to-sales ratio remains elevated **Big Takeaways:** 1. RTDs are redefining the volume story — growth is concentrated among scaled brands with major distribution networks 2. The US spirits correction is deeper and longer than consensus; MGP's guidance suggests no bottom until at least mid-2027 3. Regulatory and trade headwinds are compounding — THC ban, tariffs, state-level battles all demand proactive engagement 4. The generational shift away from alcohol consumption is structural, not cyclical — energy drinks, fitness, and moderation are permanent competitive forces

    31 min

  8. FEB 20

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | February 20, 2026

    **Key Themes This Week:** - Broad-based U.S. volume declines across beer (-5.9% full-year shipments), spirits (-7% value), and wine (DTC -14% volume in OR/WA) - Distribution tier structural contraction: Breakthru cuts ~500 jobs; RNDC shed 1,700+ in past year; Reyes in active talks for further consolidation - RTD cocktails as the dominant growth engine: +7.1% dollar sales (NIQ), +35.2% value growth and +382 bps share gain (Jefferies) - K-shaped consumer spending visible across every category and channel **Major Earnings & Financial Results:** - **Pernod Ricard:** H1 revenue €5.26B (-14.9% reported, -5.9% organic); U.S. sales -15% vs. consensus -13%; global headcount reduced by ~2,400 - **Molson Coors:** Q4 net sales $2.66B (-2.7%); U.S. depletions -5.1%; FY26 EPS guided -11% to -15% YoY — shares fell 7.4% - **Heineken:** U.S. net revenue down high-single digits; U.S. volumes down low-teens; planning 5,000–6,000 global job cuts over two years - **Treasury Wine Estates:** A$770.5M U.S. asset impairment; A$649.4M statutory loss; dividend paused - **Suntory:** Alcohol sales -0.4% to ¥1.38T; pausing Kentucky Beam campus production through end of 2026 - **Brown-Forman preview:** Citi expects organic sales -3.6%, EPS $0.46 for fiscal Q3 (reports March 4) **Distribution & Route-to-Market:** - Breakthru Beverage: ~500 layoffs across FL, IL, CO and other markets - RNDC: 1,700+ cuts in 2025; exited California; additional cuts in IN, WA, OR; Becle (Jose Cuervo) exited RNDC near-nationwide - Reyes Beverage Group in "active discussions" with RNDC across six states + D.C. - Hand Family Companies formed Sunset Distributing (Stone + Classic Beverage + Scout) in SoCal - NBWA survey: Distributors expect beer to drop from 76% to 67% of portfolios within five years **Wine Sector Distress:** - Gallo closing Ranch Winery (St. Helena); 93 total jobs cut across five CA locations - Trinchero listing Haystack (Atlas Peak) and Clouds Nest (Mt. Veeder) vineyards for sale - Foley Family Wines closed Chalone Vineyard's Soledad facility; laid off entire winemaking staff - Vineyard/winery transaction market projected at less than half of 2021's ~$3.5B volume - DTC bright spot: $200+ Cabernet +14% value; $10,000+ bottles +28% YoY **Strategic Moves & Deals:** - Tilray signs five-year U.S. licensing deal with Carlsberg Group (Carlsberg, Kronenbourg 1664, others) effective Jan 2027 - Hotaling & Co. closing Pier 50 distillery; pivoting to import/brand-building model - Stoli Group: founder Yuri Shefler steps in as interim CEO; Amber Beverage Group confirms loan default; U.S. ops and Kentucky Owl in bankruptcy - Oregon Beverage Collective formed; Crux Fermentation acquired by Cascade Lakes owners (~40K barrels combined) **RTD & Emerging Categories:** - RTD cocktails: only growing major segment in NIQ data (+7.1% dollars); 36.2% of on-premise packaged volume - Top RTD performers: Cutwater +114.7%, Surfside +223.5%, Sun Cruiser +349.5%, Buzzballz +41.8% - Non-alcoholic beer: 5.4% of on-premise packaged share (+1.4 pts); 94% of distributors added NA suppliers in past year - THC beverages: Indeed Brewing at 15–20% of volume, 25–35% of revenue; Scofflaw expects THC >50% of revenue **Regulatory & Legal Updates:** - **New York:** SB 9220 would allow liquor retailers to sell THC beverages (=5mg/serving); separate bill would allow grocery stores to sell wine and liquor - **Iowa:** HF 2403 advances to end state liquor distribution monopoly (13-8 committee vote) - **Maryland:** Legislation introduced to allow grocery beer and wine sales - **Illinois:** Considering lowering BAC limit from 0.08 to 0.05 - **Kentucky:** HB 612 would add 4% license fee on top of 6% sales tax (10% effective rate) - **Mississippi:** ABC warehouse software failure causing weeks-long supply crisis statewide - **Federal:** Supreme Court asked to resolve wine retailer shipping ban circuit split (Day v. Henry) - **TTB:** FD&C Red No. 3 ban in alcoholic beverages; reformulation deadline January 15, 2027 - **Hemp/THC:** Congressional decision window approaching on whether to regulate hemp beverages under three-tier system **Consumer & Retail Signals:** - Walmart fiscal Q4: $190.66B revenue; U.S. comps +4.6%; e-commerce +27%; CFO flags K-shaped income pressure - CPI: Alcohol-at-Home +0.6% YoY; Alcohol-Away-from-Home +3.6% — retail pricing power eroding - Restaurant traffic: 5 consecutive months of decline; 75% of diners prefer smaller portions for less money - GLP-1 adoption estimated at 12% of Americans, impacting portion sizes and occasion frequency - American Whiskey Association pushes back on "glut" narrative; ~16M barrels aging in Kentucky; global market ~60–62M 9L cases **On-Premise Data (BeerBoard 2025 Year in Review):** - Total on-premise revenue -0.6%; volume +0.1% - Draft: light lager dominant at 43.5% share (+1.4% volume); IPAs -8.5% volume - Spirits: agave 30.4% share (+0.5 pts); vodka -1.4 pts; rum -3.9 pts - Packaged: RTD cocktails 36.2% share (+1.7 pts); NA beer 5.4% share (+1.4 pts)

    26 min
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Stay ahead of the trends shaping the world of wine, spirits, beer, and non-alcoholic drinks. Each episode delivers a quick, insightful look at the latest developments in the beverage industry—from distributor shake-ups and retail strategies to brand launches, consumer trends, and regulatory updates. Whether you’re a retailer, supplier, or industry enthusiast, Beverage Business Briefing keeps you informed and ready to make smarter decisions in today’s fast-changing marketplace.

Information

  • Creator
    Carlos DeOliveira
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    29
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2026 Carlos DeOliveira
  • Show Website
    Beverage Business Briefing

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