Beverage Business Briefing

Carlos DeOliveira
  • 5.0 (1)
  • Business

Stay ahead of the trends shaping the world of wine, spirits, beer, and non-alcoholic drinks. Each episode delivers a quick, insightful look at the latest developments in the beverage industry—from distributor shake-ups and retail strategies to brand launches, consumer trends, and regulatory updates. Whether you’re a retailer, supplier, or industry enthusiast, Beverage Business Briefing keeps you informed and ready to make smarter decisions in today’s fast-changing marketplace.

  1. 1d ago

    One Year In, RNDC Sells the Last Piece

    **Anniversary** - Episode 52. One year of the DrinxAI Weekly. Thanks to the distributor and supplier partners who provided feedback all year. - Year one defining threads: drinking participation at a record low fifty four percent; the RNDC collapse and wholesale reconsolidation under Reyes, Martignetti, and Southern Glazer's; the whiskey unwind from Stoli to Uncle Nearest; Gallo and Four Roses at seven hundred seventy five million dollars and Sazerac's rejected fifteen billion dollar run at Brown Forman; wine's physical contraction to roughly five hundred forty thousand California acres; RTDs, non alcoholic, and energy drinks carrying all the growth; tariffs turning into a direct line item; hemp THC beverages entering regulation; and repeated constitutional challenges to the three tier system. **This week** - Two speed US market: volumes recede across beer, wine, and core spirits while RTDs, energy drinks, non alcoholic wine, affordable premium tequila (Tito's Lalo, 818), sparkling in the fifteen to twenty dollar range, Prosecco, Champagne, and heritage beer (Modelo, Michelob Ultra, Pacifico, Guinness) deliver growth and mix. - Beer reset: TD Cowen one hundred fifty dollar STZ target; NielsenIQ, CITI, Evercore, and Circana scanners confirm the "Cruel Summer" read; ABI outperforming via Michelob and Busch; Constellation terminating Coors Distributing in Colorado, six million cases, with Reyes likely successor; Kroger and Red Bull standoff. - Spirits and Diageo: RTDs masking core weakness; Crown Royal down seventeen percent; Cameronbridge strike; a billion dollars of cost cuts; the 2.3 billion dollar EABL sale to Asahi cleared; new Montgomery, Alabama plant; affordability pivot for Don Julio and Casamigos. - Wine contraction: twelve to twenty five percent of California acreage and the associated jobs gone; Boomer decline and cellar drinking; sparkling and New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc as pockets of demand; Judd's Hill winding down; tariffs against import demand. - Distribution shocks: RNDC bankruptcy sale of control state brokerage to Martignetti at 14.5 million dollars; Summit Brewing BMO foreclosure at 8.22 million dollars; Southern Glazer's 12.5 million dollar non prosecution agreement over California supermarket incentives, with named executives and suppliers. - Legal and regulatory: three tier challenges (Blue Sky Vineyards in California, Full Pull Wines in Illinois, Hoopes in Napa); home still circuit split (Ream); Costco Kirkland tequila class action; New York hemp THC crackdown and grocery wine push; Massachusetts ABCC penalty flexibility; Visa and Mastercard swipe fee settlement opposition. - Tariffs and trade: planned removal of the ten percent Irish whiskey tariff; Canadian packaged alcohol ban September 29 with a bulk whisky workaround that protects Crown Royal; US spirits exports to Canada down seventy percent. - Consumer and macro: stressed, value seeking shoppers (Kroger miss, SNAP, freight); August retail sales up 1.2 percent; CPI 3.4 percent; average beer case 31 dollars and 53 cents; K shaped spending; on premise visits down five percent. - M&A and other: Sazerac (Au Vodka, Berentzen talks, failed fifteen billion dollar Brown Forman approach, Garrard County); Veritas Vineyard; Artisanal Spirits route to market shift; Destilería Serrallés CEO; VIP and Encompass technology merger; Middleby exits brewing equipment; Marmalade Cafe bankruptcy; alcohol attributable cancer deaths doubled to 23,126.

  2. Sep 11

    Bribery Fines, Canadian Tariffs, and the Destock Reality

    - Compliance: Southern Glazer’s $12.5 million NPA over retailer bribery; TTB no further action; Almave NA listing continues. - Inventories & destock: Evercore ISI July data, 1.66 inventory-to-sales ratio, pantry levels rising. - Off-premise NIQ (4 weeks to Aug 29): total alcohol –4.3% dollars / –6.1% volume; beer weakest; RTDs, NA, imports, super-premium holding; detailed brand and manufacturer gainers (Pacifico, Victoria, Surfside, Super Lyte, Josh, LaMarca, Deutsch, etc.). - Depletions: WSWA SipSource wine/spirits –6.8% LTM; spirits weaker than wine; on-premise less damaged. - Earnings & leadership: Molson Coors S&P 500 exit despite beat; Pernod U.S. –14%, recovery 2029; Fever-Tree guidance; Boston Beer CMO Allison Stransky; Brown-Forman whiskey “exaggerated demise,” barrel/bulk collapse, craft distillery contraction. - M&A, bankruptcy, capacity: Reyes/Western Maryland; RNDC DIP, Reyes settlement, Martignetti Control States; Signorello Ch. 11; Brookside/Sbragia; Saothair/FIFCO USA (Genesee, Labatt, etc.) restoring North American Breweries. - Trade policy: Trump proclamation banning most Canadian alcohol Sept 29 (section 338, 50% duties); DISCUS/AWA export collapse; Sapporo shifting production onshore; SpiritsEurope EU exports down; O’Charley’s closures. - Hemp: Ohio injunction (Delta Beverages v. Canepa); Hemp Beverage Alliance new directors; Dec 11 federal deadline. - Legal/IP: Cielo e Terra TTAB win; Vintage 99 trade-secrets injunction hearing; Bordeaux Cellars fraud sentence. - Consumer: SAMHSA AUD and use declines; Southern Glazer’s Raise the Bar H2 themes (Gen Z, RTDs 94% of spirits growth, on-premise discovery, K-shaped, NA year-round); IWSR per-capita –11% vs 2019; Costco still spending. - Other: Wine Institute toolkit; Christina Aguilera/Beau Joie; NRA “Made in Restaurants”; obituaries (Gayheart/Buffalo Trace, Coleman/Gallo, Rinaldi/Duckhorn); Illusionist/Benchmark; Kendall Jenner/Trip; Bain holiday forecast (F&B flat).

  3. Sep 4

    US alcohol industry in structural freefall

    - **Key Themes**: Prolonged U.S. volume contraction in beer (16th month of tax-paid declines, BPI at 40, craft conglomerates under 25% growth), wine (light 2026 crush, tasting-room misalignment), and spirits (destocking, tequila weakness, Canadian whisky tariffs); RTDs, NA, and price/mix as sole offsets; wholesale fragmentation via RNDC Chapter 11. - **Notable Stories**: Saothair restores NAB/FIFCO USA independence with Labatt, Genesee, and RTDs; Brown-Forman Q1 GM 60.2%, RTD momentum, tequila drag, rejected Sazerac/Pernod; Pernod FY sales -3.9% organic, U.S. -14%, soft through 2029, Italicus close; RNDC Georgia WARN 558 jobs, lease rejections, Indiana LOI to MBG; Martignetti buys Girardi; NDC expansion; Sierra Nevada packaging refresh; Signorello Ch11, Pickett Fire claims, Napa climate plan; Gallup 54% drinkers (record low), alcohol-cancer deaths doubled; hemp prohibition delayed; Delaware DTC flawed launch. - **Big Takeaways**: Multi-year destock and demographic moderation (Gen Z, health, GLP-1, cannabis) shrink the volume base through 2026–2029; execution now hinges on independent wholesalers, RTD/NA recruitment, small formats, and specialty grocery; wine faces overlapping harvest, fire, credit, and narrative risks; operators underwrite grind, not recovery, with 2029 as the earliest large-house ca

  4. Aug 28

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | August 28, 2026

    **Key Themes:** Record-low US drinking participation (Gallup 54%) colliding with cannabis surge (17% smoking, 15% edibles, use disorder doubling among 40-50s); no summer sales rebound (NIQ Total Alcohol -3.4% dollars/-5.3% volume; beer heaviest drag); dollars holding via price/mix, NA beer, sparkling, select RTDs and Mexican/super-premium SKUs while core beer, still wine and most craft stay volume-soft; on-premise betting on beverages as traffic drivers, NA options, spritzes, sports occasions and Champagne; distribution consolidation and access risk post-RNDC/Reyes; family-control drama and private-balance-sheet buying in whiskey. - **Notable Stories:** Gallup details plus Beer Institute LDA pushback, CDC death-rate rise, Dietary Guidelines shift, IWSR premiumisation and Gen Z drinking rebound, Come Over October hosting study; Circana data restatement (milder beer slide) and brand-level winners/losers (Michelob, Pacifico, New Belgium, Athletic Brewing, BuzzBallz, Cutwater, Surfside vs. Truly, Bud, Blue Moon, Tilray); NRA 2026 beverage trends (87% FSR traffic driver, beverage-only occasions, delivery packaging); Archie Rose US entry with Chris Hemsworth and Reyes; Fever-Tree Goldman update; PACK Design Awards (One Stone, Parducci, Cycles Gladiator); Wente acreage sale; Ironstone/Kautz acquisition of Thomas Allen portfolio (Weekday Wines/Water); WMC wine-perception vs. content-frequency gap; Turrentine/Wine Business bulk-wine overhang; Cain Vineyard restoration (Dalla Valle/Coastal/Third Leaf); Reyes/RNDC integration memo; BJ’s SKU cut and membership strength; Walmart slowest SSS since 2019; Brown-Forman $15B Sazerac bid, family letter, Whiting retirement, Wolf Pen control, operating weakness; Sazerac Garrard County Distilling buy; Sapporo/Stone Escondido wind-down and layoffs; American single malt struggles (Westland, Westward, Balcones); soccer on-premise beer lift, Red Lobster Endless Shrimp return, 47 dry counties. - **Big Takeaways:** Volume-down, price-and-occasion tape into Labor Day; cannabis as direct competitor for the same dollar and occasion; NA beer, RTDs (especially spirits-based), sparkling, aperitif spritzes and event-driven beer as the growth pockets; productive placement and scaled brands favored after wholesale consolidation; listed whiskey cheap enough for hostile bids while private players like Sazerac buy distressed capacity; wine needs more cultural frequency and $20-30 discovery pricing rather than image overhaul or cheap bulk; operators should plan around fewer, more intentional drinkers, defend traffic with beverage-led menus and NA, and put scarce dollars behind SKUs that actually reorder.

  5. Aug 21

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | August 21, 2026

    - **Record-low participation and volume declines**: Gallup 54% adult drinking (Lydia Saad); NIQ off-premise $8.5bn -3.6%, volume -5.4% (Aug 8 four weeks); beer volumes -4.4% to -6.3%; wine dollars up, cases down ~7%. - **World Cup miss**: ABI $110m Michelob Ultra spend, Doukeris 0.25% lift; Circana/BeerBoard/BMI data show no category rescue; spirits RTDs (Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser) captured occasions. - **Diageo reset**: Uncompetitive North America; $19.6bn sales -2-3% organic, profit -27%; $1.2bn restructuring, ~2,000 headcount cut, possible 3-5k more jobs; dividend halved; RTD tilt, Smirnoff/Captain Morgan reinvestment; India flavouring reformulation (Antiquity Blue, Royal Challenge, McDowell’s). - **Leadership and M&A**: Boston Beer CFO Reynoso to Ingredion (Murphy interim); Precept acquires Miller Family (Butternut etc.); Campari sells Martinique rums to Les Bienheureux; Sazerac in talks for Au Vodka (~£500m); Ardagh Metal Packaging stake sale; C&S majority of Winn-Dixie; TWE activist Foye, Americas EBIT collapse, US review. - **Wine production and regulation**: Napa Winery Definition Ordinance 23 proposed changes; Oregon A to Z/Erath/Rex Hill production -32%; mothballing in Mendocino/Sonoma/Lake; Pierce’s disease resurgence and hybrids (Ojai, UC Davis); stainless tanks 42.5% share; ACS cancels Wine & Spirits Gala. - **Labor, theft, politics**: Teamsters contracts at Breakthru (Cicero/St. Louis) and Southern Glazer’s NY (30% wages); Boston Beer Jamaica Plain union petition (UFCW 328); NC ABC warehouse stalemate (Bauer vs Hall/Berger); cargo theft $200m+ rail incidents, House bill (Valadao); Mexican beer tariff poll 3-to-1 support (McLaughlin, Teamsters O’Brien). - **Consumer nuance**: Gen Z participation rebound (IWSR 74%, Morning Consult frequency up) vs isolation (ATUS 1-in-10 young adults zero face-to-face time); NA beer/wine/spirits growth; 17% tried NA alternatives (Gallup); Jefferies 27 headwinds, screen time (Asahi CEO). - **Craft and vendors**: BA 4% H1 decline but 54% growing; Voodoo Ranger G-Force, Sierra Nevada Go-Two IPA; distributors de-emphasizing craft, adding RTDs/NA; Sonoma Cast Stone, G3, BevZero, Uncle Nearest receivership. - **Big takeaway**: Volume is the problem; price/mix, RTDs, NA, and select brands (Michelob, Pacifico, Cutwater, Josh, La Marca) are the offset. Diageo’s America-first turnaround plus labor, theft, and reputational pressures reshape access and risk into 2027

  6. Aug 14

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | August 14, 2026

    Key themes - Clinical moderation: AUD down about 4 million people; mild cases drove the drop; Surgeon General cancer advisory, youth cohort habits, cannabis substitution, and GLP-1s in the mix - Two-speed market: depletions and inventories stabilizing, not recovering; off-premise still the bottleneck; on-premise and World Cup occasions outperforming - RNDC breakup rewriting access and credit: K1RC Kentucky LOI after Breakthru walked; Reyes 11-state deal already done; Proximo $93.92 million unsecured; WVVI and TWE credit and stock damage - Wine supply destruction: TWE nearly $1.25 billion US impairments including Daou, Frank Family, Beaulieu; Napa Cab bulk dead despite shatter; G-3, Bronco, Gallo, Courtside cuts; Pickett Fire lawsuit - RTD, NA, hemp, and energy winning mix: premixed cocktails, Athletic/Heineken 0.0/Michelob Ultra Zero, hemp parity bill, Monster energy compounding while its alcohol book shrinks - Three-tier and policy fights: CA craft-distiller DTC dying; WBA vs Diageo on type-based regulation; NC ABC cheap-SKU hike delayed; Common Cents Act; Tamarron craft SKU cuts and THC additions Notable company and brand moves - Treasury Wine Estates: dividend scrapped, Americas EBIT collapse, second writedown wave, Penfolds carrying the group, possible US exit - Willamette Valley Vineyards: loss after RNDC credit allowance; sales slightly down - Suntory / Greg Hughes: US destocking, Japanese whisky push (Toki, Hibiki, Yamazaki), -196, Oaksmith, Jim Beam/Hornitos/Canadian Club pressure, Teacher’s India, Bowmore/Laphroaig - Diageo: Dave Lewis $1 billion restructure, $514 million severance, John O’Keeffe packaging reset on Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan; Don Julio 1942 packs - Monster: energy +20 percent-plus; Alcohol Brands -15.2 percent; CANarchy hangover - Fulton / Bemidji / True North / Finnegans / N*RC THC waters; Tilray / Terrapin / BrewDog / Carlsberg license; Pennsylvania Brewing dismissed Ch.11 - Molson Coors Horizon 2030 conservative; Boston Beer $25 million 10b5-1; Celsius ousts Eric Hanson amid Russ Savage stake - Keg 1 / K1RC, Breakthru, Reyes, Southern Glazer’s Proof cuts, Brown-Forman Kentucky - Wonderwerk, Barons de Rothschild / MISA, Josh, La Marca, Whitehaven, Kim Crawford, High Noon, BuzzBallz, Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, White Claw, Pacifico, Victoria, Athletic, Garage Beer / Red Robin, TGI Fridays - Sprouts expansion, Costco comps, Safeway discount lawsuit, Walmart value gap Big takeaways - Public-health numbers and commercial volumes are finally rhyming, but hemp, cannabis, energy, and GLP-1s are competing for the same occasions - Wholesaler destocking is real and constructive at the margin; consumer pantries and wine tanks are not cleared - Credit and placement risk stay elevated into late 2026 as RNDC assets trade and craft SKUs get culled - Price no longer papers over volume: wine is deflating, beer pricing power is fading, Walmart is widening the gap - Growth lanes that are actually working: imported sparkling and select wine brands, tequila añejo and unflavored vodka, premixed cocktails, NA beer, on-premise occasions, and a licensed hemp path if Congress follows through

  7. Aug 7

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | August 07, 2026

    - **Diageo reset:** ~$1B cost cuts ($850M operating model + $150M supply chain); organic sales –2% to $19.6B; NA –8.4%; US spirits –11.5%; dividend halved; guidance to low-single-digit sales / mid-single-digit OP growth; Smirnoff, Captain Morgan, Crown Royal value-pack push; Don Julio/Casamigos smaller formats; RTDs across cores; Guinness ~$1B to 2030; shares +5.6%. - **RNDC Chapter 11:** >$3B brand revenue lost; >$400M unsecured claims (~$94M Proximo largest); liabilities $1–10B vs assets $500M–$1B; 5,444+ WARN layoffs; Reyes 11-market deal (~38M cases, 16 states); Southern Glazer’s Eagle Rock Colorado close (full A-B portfolio + Cutwater/NÜTRL/BeatBox); Martignetti Michigan brokerage + Breakthru IN/KY JVs; Heimark acquiring Alford (Imperial, CA). - **Molson Coors Q2:** Revenue $3.10B –3.3%; adj EPS $1.58 beat; volumes soft; Coors Banquet strong; Blue Moon/Core Lights weak; Keystone Light Apple & Keystone Ice; Atomic/Monaco RTD integration; FY guidance reaffirmed (flat sales, profit down mid-teens). - **Off-premise scans (Circana/NIQ/TD Cowen/Goldman):** Total bev-alc under pressure; beer decisive drag; spirits + RTDs outperform; Michelob, White Claw, Pacifico, Athletic, Bell’s gain; Bud, Miller Lite, Twisted Tea, Modelo soft; World Cup on-prem beer lift. - **AB InBev / Cutwater:** Bud Light barrels sliding (12.7M est.); media shift to Michelob Ultra; Cutwater toward $1B, #1 share-gaining US spirits brand, high-ABV canned cocktails. - **Campari H1:** +2.7% organic; Espolon +8.2% H1 / #2 premium tequila; Aperol activation + later +3.3% H1 slowdown; St-Germain +40% on Hugo spritz; Courvoisier growth; portfolio exits (Cabo Wabo, Bisquit; agricole talks); tariff-refund profit outlook raise. - **MGP / Brown-Forman / bulk whiskey:** MGP sales –15%, brown goods –59%, Limestone Branch & Lux Row paused; Penelope +13%; BF Citi negative catalyst watch, rejected Sazerac ~$15B approach; Jack Daniel’s Blackberry cycle. - **Craft beer:** BA H1 volume –4%; only IPA brands growing in top 30 (Voodoo Ranger family, Hazy Little Thing, Space Dust, Little Sumpin’, etc.). - **Wine stress:** WMC leadership handoff (Thach ? Egan); Sauvignon Blanc/white blends/NA wine bright; Cab/Chard soft; Signorello $37M foreclosure auction; bulk Pinot “giveaway”; Beckstoffer layoffs/unfarmed acres; mothballing trials; Napa compliance ~$23.65/case; WA acreage –40%; Concha y Toro US transition pain; Bronco–Jordan partnership; Willamette Valley preferred offering; Come Over October ~3B impressions. - **Cannabis crossover:** SAMHSA—21.4M daily/near-daily marijuana > 17.2M daily alcohol > 19.9M cigarettes; daily cannabis +21% since 2021; Perfect Union RFID self-checkout first in CA. - **Hemp & regulatory:** White House/Senate CR delay fight (Nov 12 ? Dec 11 non-synthetic); 35 AGs oppose delay; Hemp Beverage Alliance applauds; Safe Sips Act color-coding; NC ABC min-price hike; Oregon 2028 grocery-spirits initiative; FTC–Southern Glazer’s Robinson-Patman extension; Jack Daniel’s Bad Spaniels tarnishment injunction overturned; Origin Spirits v. Starbucks (Kalak); SweetWater/Tilray logo dispute dismissed. - **Portfolio / M&A / other:** Johnson Brothers × William Grant (IN/NE/ND/SD); Corby sells Lamb’s rum; Next Century Spirits acquires Chicken C**k, Dixie, Elvis Whiskey, EG Booz + Bardstown/NuLu assets; Beckmann/Becle into LAFC ownership; Daily Pour acquires Rum Lab + Rum Festival platform; Costco traffic resilient; Bloomin’/Outback trade-up; Marie Brizard US +12% Q2; India FSSAI additive bans; wildfire watch (Sonoma Woodside, Gironde). - **Big takeaway:** RNDC unwind + daily cannabis overtaking alcohol redefine risk; near-term defense = price/mix, value packs, high-proof RTDs (Cutwater, Monaco, flavored spirits), premium tequila/aperitifs (Espolon, Aperol/St-Germain), and total-beverage distributor scale (Reyes, Southern Glazer’s). Beer scale, IPA concentration, bulk whiskey, and wine inventory/credit remain the headwinds to watch through 2H 2026.

  8. Jul 31

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | July 31, 2026

    ### Key themes - **RNDC Chapter 11** reshapes national wholesale; two-route-to-market split accelerates - **Two-speed industry:** price/premium/RTD/NA strength vs. volume, craft, and mid-tier pressure - **Wine supply destruction** in California alongside K-shaped demand - **M&A and succession:** Sazerac/Brown-Forman, Cobblestone/Campari assets, Whiting retirement - **Policy pile-up:** hemp three-tier, DtC enforcement, state pricing, Scotch tariff relief, EPR, labeling ### Major corporate & earnings - **RNDC:** Ch. 11 (S.D. Tex., July 26); $1–10B liabilities; 100k+ creditors; top-30 unsecured >$300M; Proximo $93.92M largest; DIP $75M; NDC and most JVs excluded; 5,000+ jobs preserved via prior sales (Reyes, Columbia, Martignetti, BreakThru); Quality Brands closes Plains (NE/ND/SD) - **ABI:** Strong global beat; U.S. +2.7% revenue on price/mix; Ultra, Busch Light, Busch Light Apple top share gainers; Cutwater doubles; NA beer mid-30s%; outlook 4–8% EBITDA; Sept. capital markets event - **MGP:** Sales -14.5%; EPS beat; Penelope/Yellowstone/Everclear strength; 52-brand cut; Distilling -42%; guidance reaffirmed; ex-Pernod hires; SirDavis liquid for Beyoncé - **Campari:** +2.7% H1 organic; NA +2.9%; aperitifs +4%; Wild Turkey pressure; selling **Cabo Wabo** & **Bisquit & Dubouché** to **Cobblestone** (Dennis Carr; close by Oct 31, 2026) - **Rémy Cointreau:** Cognac +7.7% organic; Louis XIII mix; group +1.3% - **Becle/Proximo:** Q2 -5.8% CC; US/Canada sequential improvement post-RNDC exit; Cuervo soft, other tequilas sturdier; FY low-single-digit decline outlook - **Brown-Forman:** Whiting retiring; search on (Masick, Farrer flagged); FY26 sales -1%, EPS -17%; FY27 flat sales / OI -3–5%; **Sazerac $15B / $32** bid rejected again (Wells + Apollo backing) - **Boston Beer:** EPS miss; depletions -6%; GM guide up; A&P/capex trim; Truly Unruly as higher-ABV bet - **Chapel Down:** H1 +19%; U.S. via Jackson Family (31 states, 250 Whole Foods) +66% intl - **LVMH W&S:** H1 +5% organic; US Hennessy still soft; VS RTS launch negligible - **TGI Fridays:** Liquidating Ch. 11 plan confirmed (~99.5% creditor approval) ### Category & consumer tape - bw166 L12M: beer -5.6%, wine -5.7%, spirits -7.4%; spirits RTDs = 28% of spirits shipments; off-prem $ +1.6%, on-prem $ +5.2%; per-LDA servings index 85.9 - NABCA June: spirits vol +4.8% (extra days); cocktails/RTDs +33.7% vol; tequila broad-based; Scotch -3%; R12 wine still deep red; on-prem spirits firm - NBWA BPI July = 51 (craft 26; premium lights 52; FMB/seltzer 55) - NIQ: post-holiday reset lower; prepared cocktails only major dollar-growth segment; domestic premium & seltzer largest $ drains; NA beer and super premium bright; home-bar inventory ~4.9 months (Evercore) - Circana craft four-week still soft; Athletic Brewing, select IPA SKUs (Voodoo Ranger, Hazy Little Thing, Space Dust, A Little Sumpin’, Pernicious) outperform; Blue Moon -10.4% - On-prem: Margarita velocity -16% but still #1; Martini +29%; RTD venues ~96k; functional +49% - IWSR: participation steady; Gen Z LDA+ up; drinks/occasion down; cocktail-led Gen Z - Conference Board CCI 90.8; RBC $84T wealth transfer thesis (helps premium spirits, hurts beer) ### Wine supply & regional - CA: ~38k acres out; 40–50k more expected; 500k+ tons unpicked; bulk ~39M gal; 2025 crush 2.62M tons (-8%+); red white; Pinot -30% since 2021 - **Beckstoffer:** major Lake/Mendocino pullback; holds ~1k Napa acres; 50 of 65 staff laid off - Agave experiment: ~100 growers / ~1,000 acres / 7+ CA spirit producers (UC Davis); Tohoku climate suitability shift Napa–Sonoma ? Monterey–Mendocino - **Vine Enterprises** $47M Pleasant Valley Winery reinvestment (Steuben County, NY) - **WineAmerica:** Trezise out; Kaiser day-to-day - Innovint/K-shaped: top-quartile wineries ~+11% rev; bottom ~-6%; luxury/$100+ outperforms ### Brands & products to note - Michelob Ultra / Ultra Zero, Busch Light, Busch Light Apple, Cutwater - Penelope, Yellowstone, Everclear, SirDavis - Cabo Wabo, Bisquit & Dubouché, Knappogue Castle, Clontarf - Jose Cuervo, 1800, Maestro Dobel, Bushmills, B:oost (divested) - Wild Turkey, St-Germain, Aperol, Hennessy VS RTS, Louis XIII - High Noon, Truly Unruly, Sauvy B (Gott/Trinchero) - Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing, Elysian Space Dust, Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’, Wicked Weed Pernicious, Blue Moon, Athletic Brewing ### Regulatory / trade / compliance watchlist - MI PA 72 (SB 604): ADA fee redesign - Lawful Hemp Protection Act (Barr/Craig) — three-tier + federal tax risk to warehouse focus - Intensified DTC stings/ID rules (AL, AK, AZ, GA, IN, KS, MI, SD, others) - Ohio retailer DtC case ? Supreme Court petition - NC ABC minimum baseline pricing (strong voter opposition in poll) - KC singles ban paused by injunction - WI brewery permit revocation (political/compliance risk) - Scotch tariff-free restored July 24 - Teamsters push Mexican beer tariff vs. Constellation 74% U.S. value claim - DISCUS/Wine Institute Oregon EPR amicus (glass vs. plastic fee disparity) - WA/OR spirits tax burden (Tax Foundation) - NY “Cheers for Change” tied-house / foot-law modernization - Public-health push for alcohol harm labeling (CDC 178k deaths cite) - SAMHSA NSDUH youth trends stable/down; JAMA prenatal alcohol use up 2011–2024 ### Big takeaways for operators 1. **Secure route-to-market and working capital now**—RNDC receivables and replacement-distributor leverage are the acute risk. 2. **Double down on what’s still earning dollars:** premium beer icons, spirits RTDs/prepared cocktails, NA beer, selective tequila second labels, aperitif culture, focused branded spirits. 3. **Wine is a barbell:** luxury and top-quartile execution versus bulk/oversupply exit; placement windows may open where RNDC doors loosened. 4. **Expect more consolidation and capital recycling** (distributor territories, non-core spirit brands, CEO succession catalysts). 5. **Budget for policy friction:** hemp capacity competition, DtC compliance cost, state pricing experiments, packaging EPR, and labeling.

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About

Stay ahead of the trends shaping the world of wine, spirits, beer, and non-alcoholic drinks. Each episode delivers a quick, insightful look at the latest developments in the beverage industry—from distributor shake-ups and retail strategies to brand launches, consumer trends, and regulatory updates. Whether you’re a retailer, supplier, or industry enthusiast, Beverage Business Briefing keeps you informed and ready to make smarter decisions in today’s fast-changing marketplace.

Information

  • Creator
    Carlos DeOliveira
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    52
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2026 Carlos DeOliveira
  • Show Website
    Beverage Business Briefing