- **Big market question:** TD Cowen challenged the structural-decline narrative, forecasting U.S. supplier gross revenue growth of 1.3% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with volume stabilization in 2027. - **Current category pressure remains real:** IWSR reported total U.S. beverage alcohol volume down 5% last year; NielsenIQ showed recent total alcohol dollar sales down 4.1%. - **Beer was mixed:** Constellation Brands gained momentum behind Modelo and Corona, ABI improved with Michelob Ultra, Bud Light, and Budweiser, while Molson Coors remained pressured by Miller Lite and Coors Light softness plus aluminum cost headwinds. - **Diageo restructuring intensified:** CEO Dave Lewis’ cost-cutting reached North America, with Laura Merritt reportedly departing and Keara Funck taking over the U.S. division. Citi upgraded Diageo to Buy despite weak U.S. spirits trends. - **Whiskey is split:** Flavored whiskey, especially Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Blackberry, Crown Royal Blackberry, and Evan Williams Blackberry, is driving trial, while Brown-Forman, MGP Ingredients, and broader American whiskey remain under investor pressure. - **RTDs and prepared cocktails stayed hot:** Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, BuzzBallz, and High Noon highlighted the category’s continued momentum, even as some pioneers moderated. - **Distribution is consolidating fast:** RNDC’s breakup continued, Reyes expanded its footprint, Martignetti and Columbia picked up markets, Southern Glazer’s acquired Clare Rose, and M.S. Walker aligned with Reyes across 11 markets. - **FTC and Southern Glazer’s reached an agreement in principle:** The Robinson-Patman case alleged small retailers were charged up to 67% more than national chains including Costco, Walmart, and Total Wine. - **Wine remains challenged:** Off-premise, distributor depletion, DtC, export, inventory, grape supply, and profitability data all pointed to pressure, though ultra-premium Napa remained more resilient. - **Wine industry consolidation continued:** Treasury Wine Estates rationalized its portfolio around DAOU, Penfolds, and Matua; Abbot’s Passage closed; Vint is winding down; Goodwood Brewing filed for Chapter 7 liquidation. - **Hemp beverages got a major policy signal:** A White House letter endorsed Representative Andy Barr’s Lawful Hemp Protection Act or an extension of the November 12 hemp ban implementation. - **Innovation remained active:** Owl’s Brew launched Spiked Pop, Ben Weiss launched Crooked Pop, Karl Strauss gained traction with Hard Cherry Cola, Bravazzi crossed 100,000 cases, and Phusion launched THC-infused Nine Loko. - **Consumer behavior is fragmenting:** CivicScience showed overall drinking incidence rising to 68%, Gen Z planning to drink more, Gen X planning to scale back, and “dry-tripping” continuing to grow. - **Craft beer is deeper but narrower:** Brewers Association Harris Poll data showed craft drinkers are more engaged, but total reach is shrinking and craft trails wine, spirits, and imports in penetration. - **Retail and restaurants show caution:** Kroger grew sales and e-commerce, Amazon Prime Day started soft despite Adobe’s record sales forecast, and the National Restaurant Association projected fewer summer restaurant jobs. - **Non-alcoholic beverage strength continued:** Energy drinks and bottled water outperformed, with Monster gaining share, Red Bull preparing price increases, Celsius slowing, Coca-Cola growing, PepsiCo declining, and Keurig Dr Pepper rising. - **Key closing takeaway:** The U.S. beverage market is not uniformly declining. It is fragmenting, with growth shifting toward accessible innovation, RTDs, value-oriented brands, select beer winners, and occasion-led consumption.
