Credible Commitments

Apriori

Credible Commitments is an independent Ethereum podcast hosted by apriori. The podcast provides a platform for earnest builders to discuss market structure, products, and philosophy. Credibility is upstream of trust. Knowledge is downstream of both. Choose wisely.

  1. Sep 2

    Prediction Markets & The Story the Data Tells

    In this episode of Credible Commitments I chat with Danning S., Research Director at Pantera Capital. We discuss prediction markets from first principles including -- category segmentation, who the users are and how they behave, MEV in crypto markets, oracle resolution mechanisms, and the power of distribution.  (00:00) - Nerding out on data (02:26) - Prediction markets high level view (04:18) - Polymaket US & International (06:14) - Filtering the Data (08:02) - Prediction market segmentation (09:08) - Turnover reveals market attributes (12:40) - MEV on Prediction markets (18:42) - Adversarial taker bots (23:01) - User does not equal wallet (26:28) - Growing prediction market user base (29:59) - Why are trading bots losing money? (31:52) - Culture markets and oracle design (42:20) - Permissionless prediction markets (46:23) - Insider trading (47:15) - High hanging fruit and innovation (49:56) - The super app thesis (52:01) - Does onchain matter? --Danning's Research 1. Flashboys or Superforecasters - A deep dive into Polymarket’s venue growth, user portraits and market structures: https://panteraresearchlab.xyz/research/2026-h1-report-flash-boys-or-superforecasters/ 2. Flashboys or Superforecasters; SBC Presentation at MEV Workshop: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85j-lQ04T_c 3. Contact Danning on X: https://x.com/sui414 Disclaimer Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as financial, technical, or legal advice.

    Prediction Markets & The Story the Data Tells
  2. Jul 31

    Navigating The Dark Forest of Ethereum

    In this episode of Credible Commitments I chat with Michael from Quasar Builder (#2 block builder on Ethereum). Michael started out mining Bitcoin before turning to block building, launching Quasar in 2025 with no privileged orderflow and climbing the leaderboard from the public mempool. The episodes progresses as we discuss PropAMMs and the market structure behind orderflow dynamics. Orderflow is downstream of trust. In particular we break down different types of orderflow and discuss what sharing orderflow between competing parties actually looks like and where multi-party block construction is heading. We close by discussing: ACE, faster blocks, and coordination as the next frontier including where ePBS fits into the auction's future, and a final question worth sitting with: is the public mempool beyond saving? Timestamps (00:00) - Bitcoin mining origins (02:15) - Launching Quasar at the right time (03:14) - Building credibility from the public mempool (05:04) - Climbing the leaderboard (07:31) - Trust is king (09:22) - Different types of orderflow (12:51) - CEX-DEX arbitrage (14:59) - PropAMMs (22:13) - Sharing orderflow (25:15) - Multi-party block construction (29:15) - Focus on bringing value to users (30:51) - ACE/ Faster Blocks/ Coordination (36:31) - Ship it mentality (41:31) - Impact of AI on building products (46:27) - Touching on ePBS (53:52) - Is the public mempool beyond saving? Disclaimer Nothing in this episode should be interpreted as financial, technical, or legal advice.

    Navigating The Dark Forest of Ethereum

Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
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About

Credible Commitments is an independent Ethereum podcast hosted by apriori. The podcast provides a platform for earnest builders to discuss market structure, products, and philosophy. Credibility is upstream of trust. Knowledge is downstream of both. Choose wisely.

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