Platypus Economics with Justin Wolfers

Platypus Economics

From world events to everyday decisions, economics explains it all. Platypus Economics makes it clear, useful, and actually fun.

  1. 3d ago

    No, the K-shaped Economy Isn't Over | Diving In

    The stock market keeps breaking records, but your paycheck doesn't feel like it. In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers explains that disconnect with one number: labor's share of income has fallen to 54.4 cents on the dollar, the lowest share on record. And it’s significantly less than the two-thirds that was common for most of the last century. Justin fires up the actual data to stress-test the claim — accounting for depreciation and tax-driven accounting tricks. But the decline is real and still stands. Then he sizes what it means for you: a five-point drop in labor's share works out to about $10,000 a year in lost wages for the average worker — while the gains flow overwhelmingly to the very top, where the richest households collect over half of all capital income. Why is this happening? Giant firms that grow sales faster than payroll, weaker worker bargaining power, and globalization that lets your job move elsewhere. And now AI could either make you more productive and better paid — or automate your job and hand the upside to owners. How we slice that pie is up to us. Subscribe on YouTube 👉 https://youtube.com/platypuseconomicsSubscribe on Substack 👉 https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com Follow on Social Media @PlatypusEconomics and @JustinWolfers Cited Research:The Rise of Pass-Throughs and the Decline of the Labor Share: https://zidar.princeton.edu/sites/g/files/toruqf3371/files/syzz2022.pdfNot a Typical Firm: Capital–Labor Substitution and Firms’ Labor Shares: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/HubmerRestrepo_NotTypicalFirm_Oct2023.pdfAutomation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor: https://shapingwork.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-how-technology-displaces-and-reinstates-labor.pdf One more thing: When I create these videos, I often crunch a few numbers in Stata, with whom I’ve got a paid partnership. Today, I used it to compare labor's share of income with and without depreciation. You can follow along with me here: https://platypuseconomics.com/stata/labor_share_worksheet.pdf See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

  2. Aug 8

    AI's Biggest Problem May Be Its Pace | The Professor Is In

    In this bonus-sized episode of The Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers uses a strange, wonderful case study — the collapse of artisanal bootmaking in 1850s England — to think through what AI will do to your work, your wages, and maybe even where you live. Economic historian Hillary Vipond found that even though a new technology let each worker produce four times as much, total bootmaking jobs barely budged. But two-thirds of the old occupations vanished and were replaced by new ones. The cordswainer disappeared; the factory foreman, machinist, and riveter arrived. In our moment, that's the translator seeing wages fall and the "prompt engineer" rising in their place. The good news: a bigger pie usually means bigger servings for workers — China's incomes rose more than tenfold as it industrialized. The catch is pace. If AI really replaces half of white-collar work in five years, as some tech CEOs claim, that's a disruption bigger than COVID or the financial crisis. ustin's plain advice: become the most AI-savvy person in your workplace, keep your skills broad rather than narrow, and double down on the basics — because AI will not take your job, but someone using AI might.  Link to Hillary Vipond's original research: https://github.com/HillaryVipond/JMP/blob/main/Technological_Unemployment_in_Victorian_Britain_VipondH.pdf Subscribe — it's a broad, diversified skill set for your feed, and it never gets automated away:on YouTube 👉 https://youtube.com/platypuseconomicson Substack 👉 https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com Follow on Social Media @PlatypusEconomics and @JustinWolfers See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

  3. Aug 6

    How Early Access to Trump’s Truths Will Drain Ordinary Investors | Diving In

    Justin unpacks the new $100,000-a-year Truth Social API—a special "pipe" that will allow the president's posts to hit Wall Street computers a second or so before the rest of us see them. In this episode of Diving In, he explains why one second is an eternity for a high-frequency trading computer: it can read a post announcing a strike on Iran, figure out what it means for markets, and sell before the news reaches your phone. Justin lays out three problems. It's bad for democracy — a decision your taxes paid for gets sold to whoever writes a six-figure check, to a company in which President Trump is a major shareholder. It's corrupt on its face — the president is monetizing information he holds only because he works for you. And it's bad economics: once you know some traders have paid for an edge (remember teleprompter guy?), you stop wanting to trade at all, and markets that run on trust start to wither. At the end of the day, those Wall Street firms will get rich, and that money has to come from somewhere. And if you're not the one with the early feed, it's probably coming from your retirement account. (A confession: I think that I said that users pay the President's company $100,000 per year. I've subsequently read the price is $100,000 per month. So it's still a problem, but 12 times larger.) Subscribe on YouTube 👉 https://youtube.com/platypuseconomicsSubscribe on Substack 👉 https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com Follow on Social Media @PlatypusEconomics and @JustinWolfers See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

  4. Aug 5

    What Victorian Bootmakers Can Teach Us About The Future of Work | Diving In

    When the CEO of Anthropic warns AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs, it's easy to picture the destruction. Justin Wolfers wants you to picture the other half of the story. In this episode of Diving In, he uses a carefully researched study of Victorian bootmaking — where a labor-saving sewing machine let each worker make four times as many boots — to show how a technology can completely remake an industry while total employment barely moves. The numbers are almost eerie: about 220,000 bootmakers in 1851, and 213,000 in 1911. Yet beneath that calm surface, nearly everything changed. Cheaper boots meant more boots (that's Jevons paradox), old craft occupations vanished, and an almost identical number of new factory jobs appeared — in new places, done by the next generation. The incumbents mostly got to retire in their old trade. None of this predicts what AI will do to your job. But it widens the range of outcomes you should take seriously, and it flags the one thing that may matter most: the pace of change. If AI moves slowly, the creative side of creative destruction has time to arrive. If it moves fast, that gentler adjustment gets much harder. Either way, it’s important to also ask what gets created, not just what gets destroyed. Link to Hillary Vipond's original research: https://github.com/HillaryVipond/JMP/blob/main/Technological_Unemployment_in_Victorian_Britain_VipondH.pdf Subscribe on YouTube 👉 https://youtube.com/platypuseconomicsSubscribe on Substack 👉 https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com Follow on Social Media @PlatypusEconomics and @JustinWolfers See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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From world events to everyday decisions, economics explains it all. Platypus Economics makes it clear, useful, and actually fun.

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