Oil Ground Up

4.7 (12)
Investing
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Rory Johnston navigates listeners through the financial market dynamics of the world's oil and gas sector. Get the latest fundamentals behind the price action and hear from industry experts from the field and from the corporate offices of the world's leading energy producers.

1d ago

Jeff Currie: Everything You Know About Oil Markets Is Wrong

Jeff Currie joins Rory Johnston on the Oil Ground Up Podcast for a wide-ranging conversation on commodity price discovery, the changing structure of energy markets, and why today's geopolitical environment is unlike anything investors have faced in decades. Together they examine the aftermath of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the disconnect between crude oil and refined product markets, and why volatility—not price direction—has become the defining feature of modern commodity investing. Jeff also shares his long-term outlook on deglobalization, energy security, electrification, and the structural forces he believes will continue to reshape global commodity markets for years to come. It's an insightful discussion that blends macroeconomics, market structure, and real-world trading experience to explain what comes next for oil and commodities.
Jul 9

The Fragile Peace Reshaping Global Oil Markets

Gregory Brew returns to the Oil Ground Up Podcast to examine the evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and what it means for global energy markets. Gregory and Rory Johnston discuss the fragile status of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's shifting negotiating strategy, the future of U.S. involvement in the Persian Gulf, and why shipping flows remain well below pre-war levels despite the end of active hostilities. The conversation also explores the internal dynamics of Iran's new leadership, the role of Israel in shaping the next phase of regional tensions, and why the current period may represent a long-term transition rather than a return to the old status quo. Finally, they consider what this new geopolitical reality means for oil prices, global supply chains, and the growing risk premium facing energy markets over the coming years.
Jun 23

Why Oil Tankers Still Are Not Returning to the Strait of Hormuz

Rory Johnston welcomes maritime historian and shipping expert Dr. Sal Mercogliano to Oil Ground Up for a deep dive into the evolving Strait of Hormuz crisis and what it means for global oil markets. Together, they examine why commercial shipping ground to a halt, how tanker operators are weighing risk versus reward, and why reopening one of the world's most important energy chokepoints is far more complicated than simply declaring it open. The conversation also explores Iran's newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the challenges of clearing sea mines, crew shortages, and the logistical hurdles that could keep oil flows below pre-conflict levels for months. Sal explains why shipping—not just oil prices—holds the key to understanding the next phase of this geopolitical crisis, and why supply chains may never return to the way they were before the conflict began.
May 29

Bob McNally on Hormuz, Oil Prices, and the End of Energy Security Assumptions

Rory Johnston welcomes legendary energy analyst Bob McNally to Oil Ground Up for a sweeping conversation on the Strait of Hormuz crisis, global oil supply disruptions, and the fragile state of today’s energy markets. Bob reflects on decades of experience spanning the White House, hedge funds, and energy consulting while explaining why the closure of Hormuz represents a historic shift in how the world must think about oil security and geopolitical risk. The discussion dives deep into Iran’s leverage over global energy flows, the growing disconnect between physical oil fundamentals and financial markets, and why many traders may still be underestimating the long-term consequences of this disruption. Rory and Bob also explore what reopening Hormuz could realistically look like, why inventories and shipping flows remain critical, and how this crisis may permanently reshape investment in global hydrocarbons. From oil demand destruction and rising geopolitical premiums to the future of North American energy dominance, this episode offers one of the most comprehensive macro discussions yet on the evolving global energy landscape.
May 22

How Iran Weaponized the World’s Most Important Oil Chokepoint

Edward Fishman joins Rory for a sweeping conversation on the evolution of modern economic warfare, the origins of U.S. sanctions strategy against Iran, and how today’s Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global energy markets in real time. Drawing from his book Choke Points, Fishman explains how sanctions, secondary sanctions, and financial pressure campaigns evolved from quiet Treasury Department diplomacy into one of America’s most powerful geopolitical tools. The discussion also explores why oil prices have remained surprisingly subdued despite major supply disruptions, including the role of Trump’s public interventions, market psychology, and the growing belief that geopolitical risk no longer guarantees an oil price spike. Rory and Eddie debate whether Iran has permanently changed the balance of power in the Persian Gulf by effectively institutionalizing control over the Strait of Hormuz and what that means for global trade, shipping, and future sanctions policy. The conversation revisits the Obama-era sanctions campaign, the collapse of the JCPOA, the rise of shadow fleets and sanctions evasion, and how both China and Iran have adapted to years of American economic pressure. From nuclear negotiations and frozen Iranian assets to tanker tolls, oil inventories, and the limits of American power, this episode connects decades of economic statecraft to the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape investors face today.
May 7

Energy Stocks Are Still Cheap? Eric Nuttall Explains the Opportunity

Eric Nuttall joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to discuss what he believes is the largest energy supply shock in modern history following the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He explains why markets remain dangerously complacent despite massive global inventory drawdowns, rising geopolitical risks, and the potential for structurally higher oil prices well into the future. The conversation dives into why energy equities still appear deeply undervalued, how Canadian oil producers could benefit from a long-term supply crunch, and why Nuttall sees a generational opportunity emerging in the sector. Nuttall also outlines the risks investors should be watching closely, including possible U.S. export restrictions, weakening demand from higher fuel prices, and continued volatility tied to Middle East tensions. The discussion further explores the future of U.S. shale growth, Canada’s pipeline constraints, and the strategic importance of energy infrastructure in an increasingly unstable global market. From inventory math to capital flows, this episode offers a deep dive into the macro forces reshaping global oil markets and the investment landscape around them.
Apr 29

Tracking Tankers Through Chaos: Shadow Fleets, Blockades, and the New Oil War

Maritime intelligence expert Michelle Bockmann joins the Oil Ground Up podcast to unpack the unprecedented disruption in global oil flows following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. She explains how Iran’s shadow fleet has continued operating under the radar while broader tanker traffic has collapsed, with U.S. enforcement sharply curtailing exports and reshaping global supply routes. The conversation dives into the complexities of tracking “dark” vessels, the role of satellite intelligence, and the growing challenges posed by GPS jamming, drone warfare, and misinformation in maritime data. Bockmann also highlights the human and commercial realities behind the crisis, from stranded crews and insurance breakdowns to the difficult risk calculations facing shipowners. As oil markets grapple with dislocated supply chains, she outlines why reopening the Strait could take weeks to clear and months to normalize. The discussion further explores geopolitical ripple effects, including OPEC tensions and shifting trade flows through alternative routes like the Red Sea. Ultimately, Bockmann offers a grounded view on what to watch next, emphasizing that while the blockade is effective, uncertainty and disruption remain the defining features of today’s global oil market.
Apr 24

Amena Bakr on the Market Blindness to the 13 Million Barrel Shock

Amena Bakr, the Head of Middle East Research at Kpler, joins Rory to provide an inside look at the functional closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where daily traffic has collapsed from 170 vessels to just 5% of its pre-war levels. The sources indicate that even with an optimistic base case for normalization in August, clearing the backlog of 800+ trapped ships will likely take at least two additional months. Amena warns that the threat of maritime mines remains a strategic "wild card" that could extend the recovery timeline by up to six months. The discussion breaks down the "Iran Lane" management system and the controversial $2 million cryptocurrency tolls being reported by vessel owners seeking to bypass the blockade. With roughly 13 million barrels per day of production shut in, the discussion explores the physical damage to downstream assets and a potential five-year recovery timeline for Qatari LNG trains. Johnston and Amena address the market's underreaction to the crisis, citing the distorting effects of presidential social media posts and alleged price manipulation that has kept Brent near $100. Beyond the energy sector, the blockade is triggering a "reality check" for global supply chains, specifically impacting the helium supply necessary for semiconductors and medical imaging. Finally, the conversation highlights how OPEC is attempting to provide a "steady hand" and structural predictability while the region prepares for a post-war status quo where regional pipelines may permanently replace the Strait

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Oil and Gas This Week is the show for busy oil pros who want to quickly keep their finger on the pulse of the industry.

4.7 (546)

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4.7

out of 5

12 Ratings

Awesome

09/29/2023

WildlyFastWill7

Tony is the man. Listen up y’all.
Not Worth The Listen

Apr 3

TJ 54321

It would be nice if this were a business focused podcast. Instead we have to listen to a hysterical left-wing Canadian with a bad case of TDS. A missed opportunity wasted on the hosts personal ideology and hatred of President Trump…
Good insights

03/28/2023

MikGiant

I’m a big fan of Tony’s from TG tuesdays on RV, and he brings the same sort of real talk, smart market insight to this podcast. I thought the episode with Dave Williams was great. As someone who follows markets closely, and is considering a move to the oil and gas industry, I thought it was a nice little window into the world, and I’d love to hear the more nerdy technicals he mentioned!

Rory Johnston navigates listeners through the financial market dynamics of the world's oil and gas sector. Get the latest fundamentals behind the price action and hear from industry experts from the field and from the corporate offices of the world's leading energy producers.