Two Quants and a Financial Planner

Excess Returns
  • 5.0 (7)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

  1. 2d ago

    They Lose on Purpose — And Still Come Out Ahead | The Weekly Wrap - 5/31/2026

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the best investing insights from Adam Parker, Robert Hagstrom, and Eric Crittenden. We discuss why the market may still be trading on fundamentals, why valuation alone can fail as a stock-picking tool, how modern portfolio theory changed investing, what business-driven investors can learn from Warren Buffett, and why trend following may work by providing liquidity to hedgers. Topics covered: Why the stock market may be looking through today’s headlines to future earnings and AI-driven fundamentals Adam Parker’s argument that valuation does not work well as a standalone stock-picking signal Why estimate revisions, earnings beats, and gross margin changes may matter more than cheap P/E ratios Robert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz, Benjamin Graham, and the debate over whether volatility is the same thing as risk How modern portfolio theory shaped active management, index funds, and the way investors think about diversification Warren Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor for separating stock prices from business ownership Eric Crittenden on why hedgers may willingly lose money on trades to reduce business risk and lower cost of capital Why trend following may earn a risk premium by providing liquidity to hedgers in their moment of need How systematic investors should think about tinkering with models during drawdowns Robert Hagstrom’s story about Bill Ruane and the importance of finding the right clients and investors Timestamps: 00:00 Risk, valuation, and hedging in this week’s best clips04:06 Adam Parker on why the market may still be trading on fundamentals08:49 Why cheap stocks are often cheap for a reason14:37 Robert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz and the birth of modern portfolio theory18:50 How portfolio theory became the institutional language of investing22:27 Eric Crittenden on hedgers, cost of capital, and who is on the other side of the trade27:51 Adam Parker on why firm-wide market outlooks are so hard to get right33:53 Robert Hagstrom on Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor39:16 Why gross margin change may be one of the most important stock-picking signals44:56 Eric Crittenden and Jason Buck on tinkering with systematic strategies49:00 Why trend following may work over the long term53:09 Robert Hagstrom on meeting Bill Ruane and learning which clients to avoid58:38 Why firing the wrong clients can strengthen an investment business

    1h 2m

  2. May 25

    He Studied 100 Years of Bubbles. He Exposed Private Equity's Volatility Illusion | The Weekly Wrap

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from our conversations with Cliff Asness, Andy Constan, Gene Munster, Doug Clinton, and Ben Carlson. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss volatility, bubble regimes, AI infrastructure, private equity risk, investor behavior, and why doing nothing is often harder than it looks. Main topics covered: Cliff Asness on why volatility is not a perfect risk measure, but still matters for real investors The limits of defining risk only as permanent loss of capital Andy Constan on why bubbles can feel low risk because they trend with low volatility How leverage, confidence, and investor behavior can inflate bubble regimes Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on AI, electricity, data centers, hyperscaler CapEx, and energy demand Why AI infrastructure constraints may affect whether the AI boom becomes a classic bubble Ben Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and why investors often fear the wrong things Cliff Asness on private equity, volatility laundering, and the illusion of smooth returns Andy Constan on what active investors should do in bubble regimes and why mean reversion can fail Doug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI job disruption, knowledge workers, and how to adapt Ben Carlson on action bias, penalty kicks, and why doing nothing can be the hardest investing decision Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and the week’s biggest investing clips 03:37 Cliff Asness on volatility, risk, and permanent loss of capital 10:16 Andy Constan on why low volatility can make bubbles more dangerous 20:41 Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on turning electricity into intelligence 25:11 Why AI power constraints may change the bubble debate 30:39 Ben Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and investor attention 35:44 Cliff Asness on private equity and volatility laundering 43:42 Andy Constan on alpha, sizing down, and trading in bubbles 50:06 Doug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI, jobs, and knowledge workers 57:55 AI blind spots, token subsidies, and old tech investing frameworks 59:58 Ben Carlson on penalty kicks, action bias, and doing nothing 01:04:45 Quant lessons in sports, the Knicks, and closing thoughts

    1h 6m

  3. May 17

    He Invested Through Five Bubbles. He Wrote the Book on Them | The Weekly Wrap - 5/17/2026

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together highlights from our interviews with Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan, Edward Chancellor and Marc Rubinstein to examine AI, bubbles, private credit, market structure and the lessons of past capital cycles. We look at whether AI is creating a new investment bubble, why technological revolutions often disappoint investors even when the technology succeeds, and how private credit, financials, monopolies and market leadership fit into today’s confusing market environment. Main topics covered: • Jeremy Grantham on mean reversion, monopoly power and why the Mag 7 may have avoided normal competitive pressure • Andy Constan’s framework for bubbles, including the “something new,” escalation event and peaking phase • Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and why boom-time profits can reverse when investment is misallocated • Marc Rubinstein on private credit, redemption gates, retail investors and why the risks may be real without being systemic • Grantham’s argument that AI may become a cost of doing business rather than a permanent boost to aggregate profits • Lessons from Long-Term Capital Management and how policy responses can add fuel to a bubble • What railway mania, canals and past technology booms can teach investors about winners, losers and overbuilding • Rubinstein’s case for European financials and why growth can be dangerous in financial services • Grantham’s bubble detector and the signal that has appeared near the tops of 1929, the Nifty Fifty, 2000 and 2021 • Why investors need humility when navigating bubble regimes, AI enthusiasm, private credit and market concentration Timestamps: 00:00 Jeremy Grantham, Andy Constan and Edward Chancellor on AI, bubbles and capex 01:14 Why this week’s conversations connect across AI, bubbles and market structure 04:31 Jeremy Grantham on monopoly power, mean reversion and the Mag 7 11:24 Andy Constan’s three-stage framework for market bubbles 20:12 Edward Chancellor on AI capex, overstated demand and reported profits 30:28 Marc Rubinstein on private credit gates and the limits of systemic risk 37:50 Jeremy Grantham on why AI may become a cost of doing business 42:55 How Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the late 1990s bubble 50:02 What railways, canals and overbuilding teach us about technology booms 55:58 Marc Rubinstein on European financials, innovation and US market confusion 1:00:38 Jeremy Grantham’s bubble detector and the warning from market leaders 1:05:59 Closing thoughts on bubble signals, investor humility and Excess Returns resources

    1h 8m

  4. May 11

    The S&P 500 is Just 46 Stocks. 89% of the Economy is Flatlining | What We Learned This Week

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at what Ian Cassel, Chris Mayer, Jim Paulsen and Elena Khoziaeva can teach investors about stock picking skill, inflation risk, AI, software moats, small caps and market concentration. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on why elite investors can be wrong almost half the time, why today may not be the 1970s or the 1990s, how AI is affecting software businesses, and why the S&P 500 may be far less diversified than investors think. Topics Covered Why great stock pickers can be right only 49% of the time and still generate exceptional returns The role of outliers, magnitude and position sizing in long-term investing success Jim Paulsen’s argument that today’s inflation backdrop is very different from the 1970s How supply shocks, tariffs, commodities and labor force growth shape the inflation outlook Bridgeway’s research on redefining the small-cap premium by excluding IPOs and fallen large caps Why vertical market software may be more resilient to AI disruption than horizontal software How the AI boom and new era economy are masking weakness in the rest of the economy Why the S&P 500 may effectively be driven by fewer than 50 stocks despite having 500 names What management meetings can and cannot add to a stock picker’s process Why patience, conviction and independent business verification may be enduring investing edges Timestamps 00:00 Intro and episode preview 05:30 Why outliers drive stock picking returns 09:58 Why today’s inflation may not be the 1970s 17:27 Rethinking the small-cap premium 24:11 AI disruption and vertical market software 32:04 The AI boom versus the rest of the economy 37:04 Why the S&P 500 acts like 46 stocks 46:09 What investors can learn from management teams 53:32 Why today’s tech boom is not the 1990s 58:34 Patience, conviction and the last investing edge 01:05:32 Closing thoughts and Excess Returns Substack

    1h 7m

  5. May 3

    Outperformed by Mom | The Weekly Wrap – 5/2/2026

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines what Chris Davis and Rich Bernstein can teach investors about letting winners run, inflation risk, market concentration, dividends, AI, and the difference between economic stories and investment returns. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips on portfolio concentration, the 1960s vs. the 1970s, investor complacency, the Fed’s inflation target, durable businesses, and where the next market opportunity may be hiding. Topics Covered Why letting winners run can be so powerful, but so hard for professional investors Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling great companies The tradeoff between concentration, diversification and real-world portfolio risk Why Rich Bernstein thinks today may look more like the 1960s than the 1970s How oil prices affect consumer behavior when measured against wages Chris Davis on why perceived risk can be very different from actual risk What cars, insurance and investor behavior reveal about market complacency Why the Fed’s 2% inflation target may not reflect the world investors are living in The relationship between valuation, durability and software stocks Why higher inflation could increase demand for dividends and near-term cash flow Chris Davis on why exceptional people and management teams matter in investing Why AI may be a great economic story but not necessarily a great investment story Timestamps 00:00 Letting winners run, 1960s inflation and investor risk perception 02:18 Chris Davis on how his mother outperformed by never selling 08:32 Reinvestment risk and the limits of active management 12:45 Why oil shocks may matter less when gasoline is low relative to wages 20:25 Chris Davis on why feeling safe can make investors take more risk 29:20 Rich Bernstein on whether the Fed’s 2% inflation target is outdated 34:08 Chris Davis on durability, valuation and software stocks 39:39 Why cash flow gives durable companies room to adapt 43:16 Rich Bernstein on dividends, inflation and the need for cash today 51:55 Chris Davis on why people matter more than investors think 56:07 The risk and value of investing with exceptional leaders 1:01:30 Rich Bernstein on AI as an economic story vs. an investment story 1:05:13 Why AI productivity may not translate into obvious stock market winners

    1h 10m

  6. Apr 26

    We Asked David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran and Cameron Dawson What This Market Is Getting Wrong

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores one of the most important questions in markets today: what’s really driving this rally, and how fragile is it beneath the surface. We break down the growing concentration in earnings, the role of passive flows, and why multiple top investors see structural risks building even as markets continue to rise. We highlight key insights from David Rosenberg, Chris Bloomstran, Cameron Dawson, Dave Nadig, and Travis Prentice on market concentration, the macro link between asset prices and the economy, and how investors should think about risk, valuations, and positioning in an environment increasingly driven by flows rather than fundamentals. Topics Covered Why two companies are driving a disproportionate share of earnings growth and what that means for the broader market The growing link between stock prices, consumer spending, and the overall economy How passive investing is changing market structure and risk measurement The difference between tracking error risk and real risk for long-term investors Why valuations matter for long-term returns but not short-term timing Lessons from past technology booms and whether AI is repeating history The role of capital intensity and margin pressure in today’s largest companies Why disruption eventually impacts even the best businesses How professional investors adjust portfolios in expensive markets Why understanding probabilities and multiple scenarios is critical for investing Timestamps 00:00 Intro 04:45 David Rosenberg on the “perma bear” label and managing tail risk 09:18 Chris Bloomstran on disruption and why no company compounds forever 15:40 Why the economy is increasingly tied to the stock market 20:28 The savings rate, consumer spending, and hidden economic risks 26:00 Passive investing, flows, and how market structure has changed 31:32 Tracking error vs real risk and investor behavior 37:28 David Rosenberg on probabilities and having a plan B 42:26 How investors manage portfolios in expensive markets 43:38 Two companies driving 50% of earnings growth 49:00 Concentration vs broadening in the market 55:25 Valuations, bubbles, and expected returns 01:01:00 Why valuations are not a short-term timing tool 01:07:00 AI investment, overcapacity, and lessons from past tech cycles 01:12:30 Bull vs bear case for AI-driven growth 01:18:00 Final thoughts on market structure, flows, and long-term risks

    1h 12m

  7. Apr 19

    We Asked Liz Ann Sonders, Jim Grant, and Brent Donnelly What Investors Miss About This Market

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Grant, Liz Ann Sonders, and Brent Donnelly to break down the biggest forces driving markets right now, including war-driven inflation, oil shocks, market resilience, and the evolving role of sentiment and policy reactions. The conversation connects macro history with real-time market behavior to help investors understand what actually matters beneath the headlines. Topics Covered: Why war has historically been one of the most consistent drivers of inflation How oil shocks impact both inflation and economic growth simultaneously The nuance behind the “US as a net energy exporter” narrative Why markets require a steady stream of bad news to sustain a decline How policy reaction functions (Fed, government) shape market outcomes The difference between structural trends and short-term shocks in trading Why “buy the dip” has worked—and the risks if it stops working The role of retail traders and short-term flows in modern market dynamics Contribution vs. price performance in the Mag 7 and S&P 500 How sentiment has evolved across different investor cohorts and timeframes Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and overview of this week’s guests 01:03 Jim Grant on why war is inherently inflationary 05:16 Historical context for inflation and wartime dynamics 10:40 Liz Ann Sonders on oil shocks and stock market reactions 13:11 Demand destruction and the “cure for high prices” 15:57 Brent Donnelly on shocks, positioning, and mean reversion 18:33 Policy reaction functions and market reflexivity 21:44 Jim Grant on bubbles, technology, and the air conditioning analogy 27:04 Liz Ann Sonders on buy-the-dip behavior and retail traders 32:37 Why markets need sustained bad news to decline 38:24 Jim Grant on trust as the foundation of credit markets 41:47 Liz Ann on Mag 7 growth vs. the rest of the market 46:02 Contribution vs. performance in index construction 48:01 Jim Grant on inflation, oil shocks, and policy mistakes 52:38 Inflation as a continuous process and purchasing power loss 57:09 Liz Ann on Marty Zweig, sentiment, and modern market structure 01:02:35 Final thoughts on sentiment, behavior, and market complexity

    1h 6m

  8. Apr 12

    The Recession Signal Hidden in Walmart | The Weekly Wrap - 4/12/2026

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap brings together insights from Jim Paulsen, Brent Kochuba, Anthony Wang, and Tom Hancock to break down what’s really driving markets right now—from recession signals and oil shocks to AI economics and options flows. We explore whether current conditions look more like the start of a new bull market or something more fragile beneath the surface. We dive into unique indicators like the “Walmart signal,” shifting oil/VIX correlations, the real economics behind the AI boom, and what options markets are telling us about positioning and risk. Topics Covered: The Walmart vs. luxury retail indicator and what it signals about recession risk Why oil is no longer driving volatility the way it did earlier in the crisis How geopolitical shocks are (and aren’t) translating into equity market stress The role of options flows and the JP Morgan collar in shaping market moves Why all market signals should be viewed as probabilities, not certainties AI and the “cost of intelligence going to zero” and what that means for productivity The layering of AI economics and how cash flows through the system Why this AI cycle differs from the dot-com bubble (utilization, funding, cost curves) The importance of cash-funded capex vs. debt-driven speculation Why low consumer confidence may actually be bullish for stocks Indicators that look more like the start of a bull market than the end The role of sentiment, positioning, and underreaction in driving returns Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:00 Weekly Wrap overview and guest lineup 03:05 The Walmart indicator and recession signals 06:20 Private credit stress vs traditional credit signals 09:05 Interpreting economic indicators in context 10:25 Oil and VIX correlation breakdown 13:05 Why oil stopped driving volatility 15:00 “Certainty about uncertainty” and market behavior 16:10 AI and the collapsing cost of intelligence 18:40 Agents, productivity, and the future of software 21:05 AI skepticism vs long-term adoption curve 22:30 AI capex, cash flow, and economic layering 25:00 Why this AI cycle is more stable than dot-com 27:00 Cash-funded investment vs debt-driven bubbles 29:25 Bull market vs bear market signals today 31:00 Consumer confidence as a contrarian indicator 33:30 The role of sentiment and upside surprises 34:25 The JP Morgan collar and market structure 37:00 Trading probabilities vs certainty 39:00 How options flows act as market “magnets” 41:05 Comparing AI infrastructure to fiber buildout 44:30 Utilization and demand in AI vs dot-com 47:00 Network effects and scaling AI adoption 01:09:30 Final thoughts and wrap-up

    1h 10m
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
7 Ratings

About

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

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