Two Quants and a Financial Planner

Excess Returns
  • 5.0 (8)
  • Investing
  • Weekly

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

  1. 1d ago

    Half the S&P Is One AI Trade. This Isn’t 1999. What If the Bubble Is in the Safe Stocks?

    Earnings growth, hidden AI exposure, and investor behavior can tell very different stories about the same portfolio. This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores why getting the market call right is only part of earning the return. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Jay Hatfield, Kai Wu, Ted Mortonson, and Daniel Crosby. They examine how stronger earnings can offset lower valuation multiples, why index funds may carry more AI exposure than investors realize, and how a winning fund can still leave its investors losing money. The discussion also weighs the AI buildout against dot-com comparisons and separates stock selection from the factor bets inside a portfolio. Topics covered: - Jay Hatfield on reaching an S&P 500 target with a different mix of earnings and valuation multiples - Why rising stock prices can coexist with higher rates and worrying headlines - Kai Wu on the AI infrastructure exposure hidden inside the S&P 500 - Ted Mortonson on how today's AI demand differs from the dot-com buildout - Why real technological progress does not settle the question of investment returns - Daniel Crosby on a fund that earned roughly 18.5% annually while its average investor lost money - Building a portfolio you can hold through volatility and evaluating anxiety-adjusted returns - Jay Hatfield's "reverse bubble" argument and the role of growth in judging valuations - Kai Wu's ARK analysis: separating stock-picking results from small-company, growth, and profitability exposures - Looking through fund labels to find overlap and meaningful diversification Chapters: 00:00 Introduction and Jay Hatfield's market forecast 06:42 Earnings growth versus valuation multiples 10:45 Kai Wu on hidden AI exposure in index funds 17:45 Ted Mortonson on AI versus the dot-com cycle 22:07 AI adoption, expectations, and investment returns 27:40 Daniel Crosby on fund returns versus investor returns 34:01 Jay Hatfield's reverse bubble and growth-adjusted valuations 41:46 Kai Wu on ARK, factor exposure, and diversification 46:34 Closing thoughts and viewer comments Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  2. Oct 26

    The Panic Is in CoreWeave's Debt. The Risk Is in AI Revenue. What Is Your Portfolio Betting On?

    AI financing risks, index-driven buying, and opportunities beyond US tech take center stage in this week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore how investors can distinguish a stock-market setback from a financial crisis—and build portfolios that account for more than one possible future. Featuring clips from Andy Constan, Rob Arnott, Paisley Nardini, Colin McQueen, and Brian Portnoy, the discussion connects CoreWeave's funding challenges with the broader question of whether AI can deliver on investors' expectations. It also examines the forces behind index additions, the power infrastructure AI needs, the case for international value, and why experienced investors sometimes choose cash and peace of mind over maximizing returns. Topics covered: - Andy Constan on why AI stocks could suffer without triggering a financial crisis - Why the eventual return on AI spending matters for the value of today's infrastructure - Rob Arnott's SpaceX thesis and how anticipated index buying can create opportunities - Paisley Nardini on under-owned real assets, energy, and infrastructure investment - Looking beyond AI labels to the businesses receiving actual spending - Colin McQueen on international valuations, improving earnings, and catalysts for value - Why long-term international diversification differs from protection in a market crash - Brian Portnoy on cash reserves, career risk, and portfolios that help investors sleep at night - Andy Constan's concerns about financing needs, earnings expectations, and higher long-term rates - Testing both bullish and bearish arguments before deciding how to position a portfolio Chapters: 00:00 Introduction and Andy Constan on CoreWeave risk 08:51 Rob Arnott on SpaceX and index buying 16:50 Paisley Nardini on energy and AI infrastructure 22:48 Colin McQueen on international value opportunities 27:46 Long-term diversification versus crash protection 32:37 Brian Portnoy on cash, career risk, and peace of mind 38:45 Andy Constan's bear case: funding, earnings, and rates 45:03 Challenging your thesis and considering both tails Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  3. Oct 19

    Tech Has Led for 20 Years. Bonds Yield Over 5%. What If Your Biggest Risk Is What You Don’t Own?

    AI financing, tech-stock complacency, and the return of bonds to the portfolio conversation take center stage in this week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap. The question connecting them: how much pain could investors face before rate cuts or government support arrive? Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Barry Ritholtz, Jim Paulsen, and Ben Hunt to explore the risks and opportunities surrounding the AI boom. They discuss whether massive investment can translate into lasting returns, who bears the cost of rising electricity demand, and why confidence in an eventual rescue can leave investors overlooking the losses that come first. Topics covered: Barry Ritholtz on AI financing, IPO valuations, and data-center obsolescence riskWhy real demand for AI does not settle the question of investment returnsJim Paulsen on two decades of tech outperformance and investor complacencyThe difference between relative outperformance and recovering from a major drawdownBen Hunt on competition for electricity and the potential cost to consumersBarry Ritholtz on the renewed case for high-quality bonds without calling a market bottomJim Paulsen on why rate cuts can coincide with falling stock pricesBen Hunt on government backstops, alternative asset managers, and the limits of “too big to fail”The potential long-term consequences of repeated rescues for inflation and inequalityTimestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the AI financing question 09:24 Jim Paulsen on tech outperformance and complacency 18:11 Ben Hunt on who pays for AI’s power demands 24:02 Barry Ritholtz on the case for bonds 30:13 Jim Paulsen on rate cuts and falling stocks 36:19 Ben Hunt on the pain before an AI backstop 40:38 The long-term costs of repeated rescues Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  4. Oct 12

    The S&P Hit a Record. 73% of Stocks Are Below Their 50-Day. What Is Your Index Fund Betting On?

    Strong earnings are supporting the rally, but narrow leadership is changing what investors own through an index fund. This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores the tension between healthy business results, growing concentration, and the risks of assuming yesterday's winners will keep leading. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler connect insights from Ed Yardeni, Chris Davis, Robert Hagstrom, Katie Stockton, and Tom Maher. We discuss why weak breadth alone isn't a sell signal, what rising bond yields might be telling us, where small-cap earnings could improve, and how to balance letting winners run with managing portfolio risk. Topics covered: Ed Yardeni's "fabulous earnings momentum" and the forces supporting corporate profitsWhy rising earnings can coexist with pressure on stock valuationsChris Davis on passive investing, momentum, and concentration inside index fundsKatie Stockton on why narrow leadership alone doesn't invalidate a bull marketWhy broader participation isn't automatically good news for stock pricesEd Yardeni on rising yields, stronger growth, and the return of the bond vigilantesTom Maher on improving small-cap earnings, reshoring, and AI infrastructure spendingWhy small-cap opportunities still require attention to profitability and business qualityRobert Hagstrom on shrinking margins of safety, position limits, and trimming winnersThe regret on both sides of selling and why portfolio responsibilities matter Timestamps: 00:00 Opening conversation and this week's connections 04:05 Ed Yardeni: earnings momentum supports the rally 11:48 Chris Davis: index concentration and momentum 18:17 Katie Stockton: what weak breadth does and doesn't mean 23:50 Ed Yardeni: rising yields and bond vigilantes 30:24 Tom Maher: the case for small caps beyond big tech 35:08 Small-cap dispersion, fundamentals, and index quality 39:18 Robert Hagstrom: trimming winners and margin of safety 43:27 Selling regret and the responsibilities of managing money Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  5. Oct 5

    Diesel is Spiking. The Market Has the AI Losers Wrong | Are You Betting Too Big?

    Finding a good investment and knowing how much to put into it are different problems. This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap connects overlooked AI opportunities, the risks of concentrated portfolios, and the position-sizing mistakes that can turn favorable odds into losses. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Michael Baron, Eric Pachman and Kris Abdelmessih. Michael Baron explains why some apparent AI losers may have valuable data advantages and how his firm manages investments as they become large positions. Eric Pachman traces diesel costs into consumer inflation and shares a grocery-price study that challenged his own assumptions. Kris Abdelmessih explains why surviving long enough to benefit from an edge depends on how much you bet. Topics covered: Michael Baron on AI opportunities beyond the Magnificent SevenWhy proprietary data may protect software companies from disruptionEric Pachman on diesel prices, freight surcharges and the path into CPIWhy refinery constraints and crude-oil differences matter for fuel supplyKris Abdelmessih on how favorable odds can still lead to ruinMichael Baron on letting winners run while managing leverage and portfolio correlationsEric Pachman's comparison of Kroger prices with the government's food basketWhy national averages can differ from your household's inflation experienceKris Abdelmessih on fractional Kelly and uncertainty about your true edgeApplying position-sizing lessons to investing, gambling and insurance decisionsWatch the full interviews: Michael Baron: AI beneficiaries, Tesla, SpaceX and managing concentrated growth portfolios https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVCgmorfy50 Eric Pachman: What headline economic data misses about jobs, diesel costs and grocery prices https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5bXUBAPRvr0 Kris Abdelmessih: The Kelly Criterion, bet sizing and staying in the game https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlTPdaT-X6U Chapters: 00:00 Introduction and Michael Baron on overlooked AI winners 09:24 Eric Pachman on diesel costs and inflation 17:28 Kris Abdelmessih on good odds and bad bet sizing 22:44 Michael Baron on concentration and letting winners run 28:35 Eric Pachman tests grocery prices against CPI 33:33 Your household's inflation versus the headline number 37:41 Kris Abdelmessih on why investors use fractional Kelly 43:39 Being honest about your edge and applying Kelly in real life Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  6. Sep 28

    Rates Are Spiking. The S&P Is One Big AI Bet. What If Your Biggest Risk Is What You Don't Own?

    Do you understand the risks in your portfolio, or just the labels on your investments? This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap explores how index concentration, changing bond yields, and lessons from great investors can challenge the assumptions behind your investing decisions. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler revisit conversations with Andy Constan, Jason Hsu, Jack Raines, and Gary Mishuris. They discuss what Treasury buybacks can actually accomplish, why owning the S&P 500 may leave you exposed to a single dominant theme, what small losses can teach investors, and why learning from Warren Buffett requires more than copying him. They also explore China's energy infrastructure and its role in the AI race. Topics covered: Andy Constan on why growth and inflation expectations matter more for long-term rates than Treasury buybacksHow policy announcements can influence markets before policymakers actJason Hsu on AI concentration and the changing risks inside the S&P 500Why diversification requires looking beyond the number of stocks you ownJack Raines on experiencing losses while the stakes are manageableSeparating a small trading account from a long-term investment planGary Mishuris on understanding, applying, and adapting the lessons of great investorsWhy copying Warren Buffett's approach may overlook your own temperament and circumstancesAndy Constan on bonds' return potential relative to cash and their role in a diversified portfolioJason Hsu on China's energy supply, electricity grid, and advantages in powering AIChapters: 00:00 Introduction and Andy Constan on Treasury buybacks 11:35 Jason Hsu on the risks hiding in the S&P 500 17:59 Jack Raines on learning from losses 23:37 Gary Mishuris on why copying Warren Buffett falls short 29:19 Andy Constan on how the case for bonds has changed 36:18 Jason Hsu on China's energy advantage in AI 41:09 Energy innovation and what could change next Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  7. Sep 21

    The "Permabear" Holds 50% Stocks. 7 Sectors Barely Grew. What If Stocks Stop Carrying the Economy?

    Are strong earnings and resilient consumer spending hiding a weaker economy underneath? In this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore why that disconnect matters for stocks, bonds, and the risks investors take in their portfolios. Featuring highlights from David Rosenberg, Jim Paulsen, Jenny Johnson, Bob Pozen, and Alex Edmans in conversation with Kai Wu, this week's discussion looks beyond headline numbers and familiar investing labels. From David Rosenberg's case for bonds to the lessons of Peter Lynch and Costco, the focus is on understanding what actually drives returns. Topics covered: - Why David Rosenberg is considering more bond duration and sees potential for a Treasury short-covering rally. - How David Rosenberg's 50% stock allocation challenges the "permabear" label. - Jim Paulsen's three-way earnings divide: technology, commodity-linked businesses, and the rest of the S&P 500. - What could happen if AI spending and higher oil prices stop carrying earnings growth. - Jenny Johnson's case for private-market access, and the hosts' concerns about retail investors becoming exit liquidity. - Why liquidity needs and financial advice matter when investing in private assets. - Bob Pozen's lessons from Peter Lynch: translating world events into company insights and buying when others retreat. - How different investment vehicles shaped Peter Lynch's and Warren Buffett's strategies. - Alex Edmans' research on employee satisfaction, Costco, and why valuable intangible assets may be overlooked. - David Rosenberg's warning about spending supported by lower savings, credit cards, and stock-market wealth, and why the hosts see concern rather than an immediate recession signal. Timestamps: 00:00 Welcome and this week's investing highlights 06:32 David Rosenberg's portfolio beyond the permabear label 11:22 Jim Paulsen: what headline earnings hide 17:45 Jenny Johnson: private markets and exit liquidity 25:33 Bob Pozen on Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett 30:29 Alex Edmans: Costco and employee satisfaction 37:52 David Rosenberg: what is sustaining consumer spending? 45:55 Why volatility attracts financial-media viewers Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  8. Sep 14

    The Moats Are Invisible. So Is the Risk in Your Bond Fund. What Else Can't You See?

    Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler explore portfolio diversification, hidden bond-fund risks, AI inflation and the competitive advantages that help great businesses compound. Drawing on conversations with Chris Mayer, Robert Hagstrom, Jared Dillian, John Kerschner and Michael Contopoulos, this Excess Returns Weekly Wrap examines how to build a portfolio you can stick with and why your investments should account for the risks in your working life. Topics covered: Chris Mayer's invisible moats: how culture and execution can sustain high returns on invested capital. Why Robert Hagstrom sees potential mispricing in competitive advantages that are difficult to measure. Jared Dillian's challenge to Charlie Munger's advice about enduring 50% drawdowns. The Awesome Portfolio, risk tolerance and why comparing everything with the S&P 500 can undermine diversification. How debt-weighted bond indexes can leave investors with more interest rate risk than they expect. Understanding duration and the fixed income sectors that core bond funds can overlook. The case that AI spending, energy demand, labor shortages and rising wealth are inflationary today. How to judge whether AI threatens a business by tracking its most important operating metrics. Why value investors hold losers too long and how a few big winners can carry a portfolio. Dillian's life hedge: accounting for career risk, employer stock and human capital when investing. Timestamps: 00:00 AI backlash and this week's investing lessons 05:03 Robert Hagstrom on invisible moats and mispricing 09:05 Jared Dillian challenges Munger on 50% drawdowns 13:05 Risk-adjusted returns and the benchmarking trap 17:15 The interest rate risk hiding in core bond funds 22:04 Understanding your bond fund's duration 28:23 Why AI's inflation costs can precede its benefits 33:25 Why value investors struggle to sell 37:53 The life hedge: when your job and stocks fall together 42:47 Investing alongside clients versus managing personal risk Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

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Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

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