Two Quants and a Financial Planner

Excess Returns
  • 5.0 (7)
  • Investing
  • Updated Weekly

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

  1. 4d ago

    Strong Jobs. Vanishing Workers. Are You Watching the Wrong Number? | 4 Things We Learned This Week

    In this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down lessons from their conversations with Market Wizards author Jack Schwager and Data 4 the People founder Eric Pachman. They explore why the unemployment rate can hide labor market weakness, how aging and care jobs are reshaping employment, why elite traders survive by following strict risk management rules and whether artificial intelligence can ever solve financial markets. Topics covered: Why the headline unemployment rate can miss a deteriorating labor market How falling labor force participation changes the meaning of jobs data Why prime-age workers leaving the labor force matters for economic growth and consumption The limitations of relying on long-standing BLS and Federal Reserve benchmarks How an anonymous trader turned a small account into roughly half a billion dollars Why trading discipline, stop losses and risk management matter more than being right What the Carvana short squeeze reveals about the danger of breaking your own rules How aging demographics are concentrating job growth in healthcare and social assistance Why home healthcare and elder care workers are essential but often poorly paid Whether AI can generate market alpha or simply raise the baseline quality of investment tools Timestamps: 00:00 Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler become market wizards 04:24 What falling labor force participation hides 08:55 Simon Russo chooses trading over music 13:00 How ignoring stops could wipe out a fortune 17:05 Messi and the rule sets behind elite performance 21:05 Aging America and the rise of low-paid care jobs 25:05 Why financial markets are uniquely difficult for AI 29:07 How AI raises the floor without creating super-investors Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

  2. Jul 13

    Tech Down 10%. Earnings at Record Highs. Which One Is Lying? | 5 Things We Learned This Week

    This week's Weekly Wrap examines whether weakening mega-cap leadership, massive AI capital spending, and record earnings expectations are creating hidden risks beneath the market. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler compare Jim Paulsen's correction case, Katie Stockton's technical analysis, Jeff Klingelhofer's fixed-income view of AI debt, and Matt Zenz's evidence-based analysis of corporate investment. They discuss why semiconductors have replaced the Magnificent Seven as the market's narrowest leadership group, why healthy breadth can coexist with fading momentum, how roughly $600 billion in AI CapEx is influencing U.S. economic growth, and why excellent earnings momentum does not eliminate correction risk. Main topics covered • Jim Paulsen's case for a 10% to 20% correction without a recession or long-term bear market • Why S&P 500 technology was already 10% below its June high • How broader market leadership could outperform mega-cap technology • Katie Stockton on weakening Magnificent Seven momentum and narrow semiconductor leadership • The difference between market breadth, participation, and leadership • How roughly $600 billion of AI CapEx from four companies is supporting economic growth • Why heavy AI-related debt issuance may create attractive opportunities in high-quality bonds • How fixed-income investors evaluate AI spending differently from equity investors • Matt Zenz on asset growth, corporate investment, and the factor evidence around future returns • Why current mega-cap AI spending may not be extreme relative to company size • Why strong earnings momentum and optimistic analyst estimates can still precede market trouble Timestamps 00:00 Four perspectives on technology, AI spending, and market leadership 05:00 Technology is already down 10% and Paulsen's long-term bull case 09:21 Katie Stockton on Magnificent Seven weakness and semiconductor leadership 15:36 Jeff Klingelhofer on $600 billion of AI CapEx and the bond market 20:13 Why high-quality AI debt may offer attractive yields 24:25 Why mega-cap AI spending may not be extreme by factor standards 29:09 Earnings momentum, earnings bubbles, and why strong fundamentals can precede trouble Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms, or their clients.

  3. Jul 5

    Expensive Market. AI Backlash. Are Investors Pricing the Wrong Risk? | 6 Things We Learned This Week

    Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down the biggest investing ideas from the week, including the AI bull market, data center backlash, semiconductor cyclicality, US stock market dominance and long-term market history. The episode features clips from Warren Pies, Meb Faber, Kai Wu and Ritavan on how investors should think about model progress, valuation, bear markets, moats, strategy and global diversification. Main topics covered Why political backlash against AI data centers may become a bigger risk than open source competition How Sam Altman, Dario Amodei and AI lab leaders are shaping the public narrative around artificial intelligence Why model progress, enterprise AI adoption and compute demand remain central to the AI bull market Meb Faber on 250 years of US market history and the power of long-term compounding Why expensive US stock valuations can coexist with long-term optimism about America How bear markets reset speculative excess and why younger investors may benefit from future declines Warren Pies on whether semiconductors are being priced like a less cyclical industry Why peak margins and low valuation multiples can be misleading in cyclical businesses Kai Wu and Ritavan on how AI changes moats, code, proprietary data and corporate strategy The System Gambit framework and why old checklists can fail when the game changes How investors should think about US versus international markets across decades and centuries Why future diversification may depend on where the next great innovation sandbox emerges Timestamps 00:00 Intro and weekly lineup 04:00 AI data centers, politics and the PR problem 09:18 Meb Faber on US market history and bear markets 14:44 Are semiconductors still cyclical? 20:56 Kai Wu on code, AI and changing moats 25:57 Ritavan on the System Gambit and the Ottoman Empire 30:28 Meb Faber on US versus international stocks 36:00 America as an innovation sandbox 38:06 Closing thoughts and where to follow Excess Returns

  4. Jun 28

    Easy Bubbles. Hard 100 Baggers. Useless AI | 6 Things We Learned This Week

    This week’s Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from our conversations with GMO’s Ben Inker and 100 Baggers author Chris Mayer. We discuss how to think about market bubbles, AI capital spending, earnings risk, IPO supply, SpaceX, long-term compounders, and the founder traits that matter for investors. Main topics covered Ben Inker’s framework for easy bubbles versus hard bubbles Why the 2000 tech bubble was easier to navigate than the 2008 financial crisis How expected returns can help investors think about risk and reward Chris Mayer on why labels like AI, software or SpaceX can mislead investors Why investors need to understand what companies actually mean when they say AI The case that today’s market risk may be hiding in earnings rather than valuations How AI data center spending can boost current corporate profits before depreciation hits Why great 100-bagger stocks usually give investors many chances to buy How IPO supply from companies like SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could affect market returns Chris Mayer’s approach to evaluating founders, compensation, incentives and culture Timestamps 00:00 Intro to the Weekly Wrap and the new episode format 02:22 Ben Inker on easy bubbles, hard bubbles and 2000 versus 2008 08:12 Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI and the danger of letting labels do the thinking 14:13 Ben Inker on earnings bubbles, AI spending and why valuations may look reasonable 19:38 Chris Mayer on 100-baggers and why investors do not need to buy immediately 22:53 Ben Inker on IPO supply, lockups and what new equity issuance can do to returns 28:03 Chris Mayer on evaluating founders, incentives, compensation and trust 34:38 Closing thoughts and the new Excess Returns Clips channel

  5. Jun 22

    Expensive Market. Record Issuance. Can the Story Still Hold It Up? | 6 Things We Learned This Week

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle. We discuss SpaceX valuation, AI capital spending, IPO mechanics, market overvaluation, the shift from buybacks to issuance, and whether value, small caps and equal weight stocks are starting to reverse years of mega-cap dominance. Topics covered: Why Aswath Damodaran says valuation requires both stories and numbers How investors can evaluate SpaceX without relying only on total addressable market Why IPOs are designed to trade well after issuance How a small public float can influence the perceived value of an entire company Why expensive market valuations do not automatically mean investors should sell everything What history suggests about forward returns when market valuations are extreme Why AI is changing the capital intensity of the Magnificent 7 The underrated role of restraint in business strategy and AI spending How the market is shifting from buybacks to stock issuance Why value, small caps and equal weight stocks may be showing early signs of a reversal Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and this week’s episodes with Aswath Damodaran, Andy Constan and Tobias Carlisle 04:17 What the SpaceX story needs to justify the valuation 08:56 Why IPO issuers may want the stock to trade up 13:20 Why mean reversion looks harder to trust in today’s market 17:28 How AI CapEx changes the Mag 7 valuation equation 22:21 Why buybacks and issuance matter for stock market supply 27:28 Are value, small caps and equal weight stocks starting to reverse? 31:53 Why market broadening can continue if recession is avoided

  6. Jun 15

    When the Fire Hose Meets the Megatrend | The Weekly Wrap

    In this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down two major conversations with Mike Green and Vanguard's Joe Davis. The discussion connects passive investing flows, mega-cap concentration, AI-driven productivity, fiscal deficits, demographics, and the possibility that markets are being reshaped by forces most investors do not fully understand. Topics covered: * Why passive investing can act like a fire hose into the largest stocks * How market-cap weighting can amplify flows into mega-cap, high-volatility companies * The connection between passive flows, factor investing, size, beta, and volatility * Why Mike Green sees passive flow dynamics changing market behavior * How buy-the-dip behavior, ETF flows, CTAs, and volatility control funds can reinforce rallies * Vanguard's megatrends framework for technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization * Why long-term structural trends can affect short-term growth, inflation, and markets * Joe Davis's case that AI could be more transformative than the personal computer * The risk that AI only automates work rather than augmenting workers and creating new industries * Why disappointing AI adoption could bring fiscal deficits, inflation pressure, and higher Treasury yields back into focus Timestamps: 00:00 Passive flows, AI, and the biggest forces shaping markets 03:38 Mike Green on passive investing as a market liquidity fire hose 08:26 The passive flow premium and why large-cap stocks keep winning 12:00 Joe Davis on technology, demographics, deficits, and globalization 16:20 Mike Green on whether passive flows can reverse 20:46 Buy-the-dip behavior, ETF inflows, and market volatility 21:25 Joe Davis on AI, deficits, and the future of U.S. growth 25:04 The 20% probability of a 9% 10-year Treasury yield 29:00 Why AI could be more powerful than the personal computer 34:10 Final thoughts on Mike Green, Joe Davis, and the Excess Returns network

  7. Jun 8

    The $1.75T IPO No One Can Price | 6 Things That Surprised Us This Week

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at the market stories that surprised us most, including the potential SpaceX IPO, extreme valuations, market structure, AI disruption, value investing, tech leadership and oil prices. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips from Cameron Dawson, Kai Wu, Jim Paulsen and Dave Nadig on what investors should understand about valuation, index flows, disruption and market leadership. Topics Covered: Why the SpaceX IPO could test how investors think about growth, valuation and market structure Cameron Dawson on what 80 to 100 times sales implies for a company as large as SpaceX The Palantir comparison and why great growth can still get priced in too early Kai Wu on why traditional value investing struggles in industries exposed to technological disruption How value investing has performed differently in exposed versus insulated sectors Jim Paulsen on the shift from Magnificent Seven leadership to small cap tech and unprofitable tech stocks Dave Nadig on why SpaceX’s small free float and index inclusion mechanics could distort price discovery Why forced index buying, options trading and pre-positioning could make the first 30 days of SpaceX trading chaotic Kai Wu on AI disruption, software stocks and why dispersion creates both opportunity and risk Jim Paulsen on why the biggest stock market pressure from oil spikes may come after oil prices peak Timestamps: 00:54 What surprised us most this week 05:27 What 100x sales means for SpaceX investors 10:52 Why value investing still works outside disrupted industries 15:45 Why risky market leadership can continue longer than investors expect 20:53 Why SpaceX’s low free float matters for index funds 25:23 AI disruption and the opportunity in software dispersion 29:23 How dispersion creates winners and destroys funds 33:46 Why oil peaks can pressure the economy with a lag

  8. May 31

    They Lose on Purpose — And Still Come Out Ahead | The Weekly Wrap - 5/31/2026

    This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the best investing insights from Adam Parker, Robert Hagstrom, and Eric Crittenden. We discuss why the market may still be trading on fundamentals, why valuation alone can fail as a stock-picking tool, how modern portfolio theory changed investing, what business-driven investors can learn from Warren Buffett, and why trend following may work by providing liquidity to hedgers. Topics covered: Why the stock market may be looking through today’s headlines to future earnings and AI-driven fundamentals Adam Parker’s argument that valuation does not work well as a standalone stock-picking signal Why estimate revisions, earnings beats, and gross margin changes may matter more than cheap P/E ratios Robert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz, Benjamin Graham, and the debate over whether volatility is the same thing as risk How modern portfolio theory shaped active management, index funds, and the way investors think about diversification Warren Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor for separating stock prices from business ownership Eric Crittenden on why hedgers may willingly lose money on trades to reduce business risk and lower cost of capital Why trend following may earn a risk premium by providing liquidity to hedgers in their moment of need How systematic investors should think about tinkering with models during drawdowns Robert Hagstrom’s story about Bill Ruane and the importance of finding the right clients and investors Timestamps: 00:00 Risk, valuation, and hedging in this week’s best clips 04:06 Adam Parker on why the market may still be trading on fundamentals 08:49 Why cheap stocks are often cheap for a reason 14:37 Robert Hagstrom on Harry Markowitz and the birth of modern portfolio theory 18:50 How portfolio theory became the institutional language of investing 22:27 Eric Crittenden on hedgers, cost of capital, and who is on the other side of the trade 27:51 Adam Parker on why firm-wide market outlooks are so hard to get right 33:53 Robert Hagstrom on Buffett’s casino and cathedral metaphor 39:16 Why gross margin change may be one of the most important stock-picking signals 44:56 Eric Crittenden and Jason Buck on tinkering with systematic strategies 49:00 Why trend following may work over the long term 53:09 Robert Hagstrom on meeting Bill Ruane and learning which clients to avoid 58:38 Why firing the wrong clients can strengthen an investment business

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5
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About

Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.

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