One of the most interesting questions we got this week was from one of our loyal subscribers, Sam, who asked: What should Susan Collins and Troy Jackson do in the final days of their respective Senate campaigns in the great state of Maine? I’ll admit I don’t know if referring to it as the great state of Maine means that Sam himself is from Maine or, like me, just really enjoys visiting there. But either way, it’s a great question, because as I told Sam in my response directly to him, it’s not just an important race, but a fascinating race. Susan Collins, who has held that seat since the late 20th century, is the last remaining Republican senator from the entire region of New England. For many years now, Maine Democrats have been determined to turn that region into a clean and overriding blue slate. What I told Sam, in terms of strategy, is for both candidates to largely keep doing what they’re doing. But I was certainly much more specific than that. Troy Jackson: reach the swing voters Jackson has to reach the swing voters in his state. Maine’s Democratic progressive base, like in most states around the country, is plenty fired up. They were excited about Graham Platner until that whole scandal took place. And even though Jackson isn’t nearly as talented a communicator, they’re pretty fired up about him too, not so much because they love Troy Jackson, but because of how much they despise Donald Trump. So for Jackson, the target is older voters, married voters, rural voters. In other words, Mainers who’ve always looked at Susan Collins as the great exception to their otherwise increasingly heavy Democratic leanings. Jackson has to continue reminding them that, for all practical purposes, he argues, Susan Collins is Donald Trump, and Collins does Trump’s bidding. If he can sell that message to the remaining undecided swing voters, his chance of victory increases geometrically. Susan Collins: win back women Collins’ task is much more specific. The demographic groups she needs in order to win are older female voters and younger women: Gen Z and millennials. Younger women don’t have much of a memory, for understandable reasons, of Collins’ very long Senate career. When they hear the name Susan Collins, they think of Brett Kavanaugh and the Supreme Court confirmation hearings a few years ago. Winning those voters back has been a pretty tough road for Collins, and it’s really not one she’s even engaging on all that seriously anymore. But if those young women think about Collins in the context of Kavanaugh and Trump, their mothers and grandmothers remember her much longer record of service. They look back at her entire career. Collins can’t make them forget about the Kavanaugh confirmation. But what she can do for those women of older generations is remind them of all the other things she’s done over the decades that make her significantly different than most other mainstream Republicans. Trump looms over both So, two very different target audiences and two very different strategies. But on both sides, no question, as is the case in most statewide campaigns around the country this year, Donald Trump looms over the entire proceedings and the entire discussion. If Collins can escape the Trump shadow, she wins. If Jackson can tag Trump to Collins, he pulls this one off. There are probably about a dozen Senate races around the country that right now could go in either direction. And even in increasingly and incredibly deep red states like Mississippi, South Carolina and Kansas, and even if Democrats are more likely or more certain to take over the House, there are a few dozen, as many as 40 or so House races that could go in either direction. So there’s plenty going on for the next week or so. If any of you have any questions, feel free to send them in. Get full access to Dan Schnur's Sanity Check at danschnur.substack.com/subscribe
