The OPEX Effect

Excess Returns
  • 4.5 (2)
  • INVESTING
  • UPDATED MONTHLY

The OPEX Effect is a joint podcast from Excess Returns and SpotGamma where we take a deep dive into the world of options and the flows they generate in markets. Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand every month on Options Expiration week as they look at the major developments in the options world and how they impact all of our portfolios.

  1. JAN 17

    The Volatility Shift No One Sees | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

    In this episode, Jack Forehand is joined by Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma to break down how options market flows are increasingly shaping equity market behavior. The conversation focuses on January options expiration, the explosive growth of zero DTE options, and why short term volatility dynamics matter even for long term investors. Using recent market examples, the episode explains how dealer hedging, gamma exposure, and correlation shifts can drive rallies, reversals, and sudden corrections that often seem disconnected from fundamentals. Topics covered• Why options volume has surged since 2020 and how zero DTE trading changed market structure• How dealer hedging flows influence stock prices, volatility, and intraday market moves• The Captain Condor collapse and what it reveals about selling volatility and hidden risks• Why options expiration can act as a catalyst for market turning points• The relationship between implied volatility, realized volatility, and market stability• Gamma exposure explained and how positive vs negative gamma affects price action• Correlation trades and why low index volatility can signal growing market fragility• What current options positioning says about risks and opportunities after January opex Timestamps00:00 Introduction and why options flows matter for all investors03:00 What the show is about and how options expiration drives market behavior06:00 The Captain Condor story and the dangers of selling volatility15:20 Why options volume has exploded since COVID18:45 How market makers hedge options and move underlying stocks22:00 Why options expiration forces positioning changes25:00 Volatility behavior before and after opex27:45 Gamma exposure and how it predicts short term volatility29:50 December opex review and what played out as expected36:00 Correlation trades and warning signals for corrections44:40 Single stock options, speculation, and market maker profits46:30 Quadrant view of call buying, volatility, and crowd behavior49:55 Implied vs realized volatility and why tension is building

    1h 1m

  2. 12/13/2025

    7000 Magnet. 6800 Trap Door | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

    In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba break down what could be the largest options expiration ever and explain why December options flows, seasonality, and volatility dynamics matter so much for markets right now. The conversation explores how AI enthusiasm, equity rotation, and record options volume are colliding into year end, and what the options market is signaling about near term risk, upside, and potential turning points. From zero DTE trading and volatility suppression to the Santa Claus rally, JP Morgan’s collar trade, and the implications for stocks, small caps, and value, this episode offers a detailed look at how derivatives are shaping market behavior beneath the surface. Topics covered: Why December options expiration may be the biggest ever and why that matters How options market flows influence stock prices and volatility The role of zero DTE options in suppressing or amplifying market moves AI, capital cycles, and whether infrastructure builders will benefit Seasonality, the Santa Claus rally, and year end market dynamics Equity rotation versus true risk off environments Small caps, value stocks, and shifts away from mega cap tech Volatility compression, hedging flows, and what happens after expiration The JP Morgan collar trade and its impact on S&P 500 levels Key upside and downside levels to watch into year end and January Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and why this could be the biggest options expiration ever 02:15 AI enthusiasm, bubbles, and capital cycle risks 05:00 Why price and time both matter in trading decisions 06:45 Record options volume and the rise of zero DTE trading 09:00 How options hedging flows move the underlying market 11:20 Why December expiration can be a market turning point 13:00 Volatility trends around options expiration 14:30 Seasonality, holidays, and the Santa Claus rally 17:00 Call heavy versus put heavy expirations 19:30 Why extreme positioning can lead to reversals 21:30 Size of December expiration compared to other months 24:00 Lessons from November options expiration 27:00 Nvidia, AI leaders, and options driven price behavior 31:30 Equity rotation into small caps and value stocks 34:00 Correlation, risk off signals, and market stability 36:00 Key S&P 500 levels including 6800 and 7000 39:00 Fed uncertainty, rate cuts, and volatility outlook 41:00 JP Morgan collar trade mechanics and market pinning 44:00 Cheap upside calls and volatility suppression 48:30 Options based ETFs and income strategies 50:00 Oracle earnings, credit risk, and surprising options signals

    1h 10m

  3. 11/15/2025

    The Two-Tailed Risk Trap | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

    In this month’s OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the forces driving markets into November expiration. They cover the surge in volatility, Nvidia’s critical earnings event, the clustering of major catalysts, the behind-the-scenes hedging flows that shape price action, and why this expiration looks fundamentally different from the recent call-heavy cycles. The conversation blends macro uncertainty, options positioning, single-stock fragility, and the psychology of navigating markets that feel worse than they look. Topics Covered: • Why mega-cap AI names now dominate market behavior • Why volatility feels “back,” even with markets near all-time highs • The role of retail and institutional options activity in driving hedging flows • How delta, gamma, implied volatility, and time interact in maintaining hedges • Why November’s cluster of Nvidia earnings, VIX expiration, and OPEX is so important • How volatility can mean revert after options positions roll off • The October 10 volatility spasm and what it revealed • Resetting from call-heavy markets to put-skewed positioning • Macro uncertainty, rate-cut probabilities, and political risk • Credit default swap spikes and the broader AI narrative • The difficulty of timing bubbles and speculative extremes • Value investing pain points during high-volatility periods • Why fundamental sellers may finally be stepping in • What the options market implies heading into December’s massive expiration Timestamps: 00:00 Mega-cap AI exposure and volatility setup 01:00 Why markets feel worse than they look 01:16 How hedging flows amplify market moves 16:14 Nvidia’s earnings, VIX expiration, and the volatility cluster 18:14 Why options volumes keep growing 20:58 How small orders snowball into large market-maker hedges 22:49 How OPEX resets positioning each month 25:00 Negative gamma, volatility spikes, and event catalysts 25:45 October’s volatility spasms explained 27:34 Why November is the most put-skewed expiration in months 32:00 Correlation breakdown and signs of fundamental selling 33:44 Macro uncertainties, shutdown risk, rate cuts, and CDS spikes 39:15 Market uncertainty, CPI gaps, and political anxiety 41:00 AI cracks, CoreWeave trouble, and credit risk 05:46 Bubble parallels and speculative excess 07:00 The pain of value investing in runaway markets 01:07:53 Wrap-up and closing comments

    1h 9m

  4. 10/19/2025

    Fragile Rally. Big Vol Spike. Credit Risks Rising | What the Options Market Says About What's Next

    In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand to break down the October options expiration and the surge in volatility that hit markets. They discuss record-breaking options volumes, the impact of zero-DTE trading, Trump’s market-moving tweet, and why the options market is increasingly driving short-term price action. Brent explains how positioning, gamma dynamics, and liquidity flows combine to create instability — and what that might mean for volatility into year-end. Topics covered:• Record 110 million options contracts traded and what it means for market structure• Why volatility spiked even though the S&P 500 barely fell• The role of dealer positioning and negative gamma in amplifying market swings• How the AI trade and single-stock call buying distorted implied volatility• The growing dominance of zero-DTE options and their destabilizing effects• What OPEX and VIX expirations tell us about volatility mean reversion• ETF leverage, financialization, and systemic risk• The relationship between correlation, dispersion trades, and crowding in AI names• Why volatility events now resemble “spasms” instead of slow corrections• How these options dynamics could influence the year-end “Santa Claus rally” Timestamps:00:00 Record options volume and volatility spike04:00 The AI call-buying frenzy and how it unwound10:00 Understanding dealer gamma and hedging flows12:00 OPEX, VIX expiration, and mean reversion in vol16:00 Event calendar and upcoming catalysts18:00 October OPEX setup and neutral call/put balance21:00 Seasonal trends and the “Santa Claus rally”27:00 Revisiting September’s predictions and what played out33:00 Market concentration and AI narrative40:00 Dispersion trades, correlation, and crowding44:00 Zero-DTE dynamics and their systemic impact50:00 Volatility spikes, leverage, and what comes next

    1h 15m

  5. 09/14/2025

    Vol Is Crushed. Risk Isn’t | What the Largest OPEX In History Tells Us About What Comes Next

    In this month’s OPEX Effect, Brent and Jack break down the September OPEX, which may be the largest ever. With volatility deeply suppressed, a record call skew, and the Fed meeting coinciding with VIX expiration, markets are set up for potential fireworks. The conversation explores how derivatives flows shape equities, why this expiration could be a turning point, and what investors should watch around key levels like 6,500. Topics Covered Record zero DTE volumes and their market impact Why September OPEX may be the largest expiration ever The “vol pop zombie hunter” theme and what it signals How option dealer hedging drives equity flows The correlation between gamma positioning and volatility Macro dynamics: rate cuts, liquidity, and potential bubble parallels Why call skew is extreme but call prices remain low How suppressed implied vol sets up risk of a volatility spike The VIX futures curve, ETF flows, and market dislocations Key levels to watch: 6,500 and beyond for downside risk Timestamps 00:00 – Zero DTE dominance and setup into September OPEX 02:00 – “Vol Pop Zombie Hunter” theme explained 06:00 – How options flows translate into equity moves 11:00 – Options expiration cycles and turning points 16:00 – Largest expirations and potential market reversals 20:00 – Extreme call skew and positioning risks 28:00 – Sector positioning and the lack of call demand 33:00 – Correlation lows and implications for market breadth 37:00 – Realized and implied volatility at historic lows 43:00 – VIX futures curve, ETFs, and contango dynamics 50:00 – Risks below 6,500 and the role of JP Morgan’s collar 53:00 – The destabilizing effect of disappearing zero DTE flows

    57 min

  6. 08/09/2025

    Low Volatility Is Lying to You | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

    In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack and Brent dive deep into the current market dynamics, exploring what they call the "Honey Badger" and "Zombie" market phenomena. With options volumes hitting record highs and realized volatility at basement levels, they analyze whether we're heading into a 2017-style low-volatility grind or if a volatility spike is imminent. The discussion covers everything from the latest options positioning data to the impact of zero-DTE trading on market behavior, providing valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors. Market Rally Analysis - Comparing the current 4-month rally (25%) to post-COVID gains and why it feels more orderly than expectedThe "Honey Badger" Market - How the market has been buying every dip regardless of negative headlines like tariffs and policy uncertaintyOptions Volume Records - Breaking down the explosive growth in options trading and its impact on underlying stock flowsRealized Volatility at Extremes - Why hitting 6% realized vol signals potential for major volatility expansion aheadThe "Zombie" Market Theory - Drawing parallels to 2017's low-volatility environment and what it means for positioningOptions Positioning Data - Current expiration analysis showing surprisingly average positioning despite market highsTech Calls Opportunity - Why tech sector calls are at their cheapest relative levels in nearly a yearMarket Maker Hedging Flows - How dealer gamma positioning creates "strait jacket" effects on market movementJackson Hole & Rate Cut Expectations - Upcoming catalysts and why the market is pricing in 91% chance of rate cutsNew Tool Launch - Introduction of Flow Patrol, a daily PDF report tracking proprietary buy-side positioning data 00:00 - Introduction and market rally discussion01:18 - Honey Badger market concept explanation05:05 - Options volume impact on equity markets10:05 - Hedging flows and market dynamics12:00 - Historical options expiration patterns16:00 - Positive gamma and "Chinese finger trap" markets18:00 - Current expiration positioning analysis24:00 - July predictions review and honey badger emergence33:00 - The zombie market theory and realized volatility extremes43:00 - Friday market action and volatility pricing analysis47:00 - The "spasm" effect and correlation dynamics52:00 - Forward-looking events and zombie market continuation57:00 - Investment recommendations: puts and tech calls59:00 - Bubble detection through options pricing1:04:00 - Flow Patrol tool announcement and wrap-up

    1h 5m

  7. 07/14/2025

    All-Time Highs. Record Complacency | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

    Markets are sitting at all-time highs, but under the surface, the options market is flashing signs of extreme positioning. In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma returns to break down the latest options expiration cycle and what it could mean for stocks going forward. We discuss why record call buying, minimal hedging, and low implied volatility are creating a potentially fragile setup — and why upcoming events like CPI, VIX expiration, and tariffs could act as catalysts. Whether you're a long-term investor or a short-term trader, this conversation offers a deeper look at how positioning, dealer flows, and volatility pricing impact market behavior. Topics covered include: Why extreme call skew signals crowding The importance of gamma, vanna, and charm How options flows can drive short-term market moves The "window of weakness" around OPEX and VIX expiration The role of tariffs, CPI, and macro catalysts in this setup Tactical implications for investors and traders

    1 hr

  8. 06/15/2025

    A Rally Built on Fragile Ground | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

    In the latest episode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba dive deep into the dynamics shaping the current market regime, with a particular focus on the upcoming June OPEX, dealer positioning, volatility trends, and the surprising resilience of the S&P 500 amid geopolitical stress. They break down how options flows continue to dominate equity price action, why the market remains pinned despite negative news, and what might finally break the calm. With some of the largest options expirations in history on deck, this is a must-watch for anyone following volatility, hedging flows, and macro signals. 💡 Topics Covered: Why volatility often contracts before OPEX and expands after The significance of the June 2025 OPEX as potentially the largest ever Dealer gamma, hedging flows, and what they signal about near-term volatility Why implied vol is so low despite major geopolitical risk (e.g. Israel-Iran conflict) The JP Morgan collar trade and its influence on the 5,900 level in the S&P How zero-DTE options impact market stability and risk signaling A potential regime shift: AI stocks, “taco trades,” and declining liquidity What vol metrics like VIX, VVIX, and correlation are really saying The hidden risk of overconfidence when markets ignore bad news Breakdown of sector-specific volatility expectations (tech, energy, gold, Bitcoin)

    59 min
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Ratings & Reviews

4.5
out of 5
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About

The OPEX Effect is a joint podcast from Excess Returns and SpotGamma where we take a deep dive into the world of options and the flows they generate in markets. Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand every month on Options Expiration week as they look at the major developments in the options world and how they impact all of our portfolios.

Information

  • Creator
    Excess Returns
  • Years Active
    2023 - 2026
  • Episodes
    28
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Excess Returns
  • Show Website
    The OPEX Effect

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